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Sunday, March 25, 2012

Lavarnway and Iglesias could offer major help

Read TFA and wonder why Rotoworld summed it up this way:

Lavarnway has projectable power, but can’t manage a staff or call a game. The question is whether the Red Sox believe the Jarrod Saltalamacchia-Kelly Shoppach tandem will be better than a Saltalamacchia-Lavarnway tandem. Lavarnway is batting .429/.469/.464 in 31 plate appearances this spring.

Brian Posted: March 25, 2012 at 12:21 PM | 30 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: red sox

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. John DiFool2 Posted: March 25, 2012 at 03:38 PM (#4088920)
>dp<
   2. John DiFool2 Posted: March 25, 2012 at 03:39 PM (#4088921)
Strange, he actually says:

There have been no complaints that I’m aware of that Lavarnway, a Yale graduate, can’t manage a staff and call a game.
   3. Greg K Posted: March 25, 2012 at 03:44 PM (#4088925)
Seems as good a place as any to gripe about a baseball game...

Rajai Davis just put on a clinic of stupid baserunning. Came within a hair of being thrown out at 3rd advancing on a pitch that got about 6 inches away from Lavarnway. With NO ONE OUT in a 5-5 game in the 8th. Then proceeded to get out at home on a safety squeeze when the bunt went right to the pitcher. I guess it's hard to blame him on the last one, once you see the bunt get down you go right?

Feels good to get my first official Jays complaining session of the season out of the way. I still can't believe real live baseball is back!
   4. Fancy Pants Handle doesn't need no water Posted: March 25, 2012 at 07:09 PM (#4089034)
With NO ONE OUT in a 5-5 game in the 8th.

Take a deep breath. It's spring training. Nobody participating in those games cares about the score in the slightest... except Bobby V.
   5. Walt Davis Posted: March 25, 2012 at 07:47 PM (#4089044)
.429/.469/.464

Is that a typo or does he really have an ISO of .035? Cuz I'll go out on a limb and say right now he ain't gonna hit 429 on the season.
   6. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: March 25, 2012 at 07:56 PM (#4089049)
He has two doubles as his only XBH. Cafafdo is way too certain that Iglesias and Lavarnway are the best the Sox have. Aviles has had a great spring on both sides of the ball while Iglesias is still the guy who had a sub-.275 OBP last year at AAA. Lavarnway may be the best catching option but it's possible he's third best. The Sox may be best off with the depth that keeping him at Pawtucket provides.
   7. Fancy Pants Handle doesn't need no water Posted: March 25, 2012 at 07:57 PM (#4089051)
Is that a typo or does he really have an ISO of .035? Cuz I'll go out on a limb and say right now he ain't gonna hit 429 on the season.

Pessimist. And he's up to .455!

.455/486/515 only 33 AB's so, doesn't really mean anything anyway.
   8. Pingu Posted: March 25, 2012 at 08:26 PM (#4089068)
He has two doubles as his only XBH. Cafafdo is way too certain that Iglesias and Lavarnway are the best the Sox have. Aviles has had a great spring on both sides of the ball while Iglesias is still the guy who had a sub-.275 OBP last year at AAA. Lavarnway may be the best catching option but it's possible he's third best. The Sox may be best off with the depth that keeping him at Pawtucket provides.


I agree with all of this. I actually do think Lavarnway has a decent shot at being the best catcher on their roster, right now. That said, I dont have a huge problem starting him in AAA. But I'd have a short leash on Salty.

Also, while I dont think Iglesias deserves to make the club, the Red Sox are actually pretty thin at the position and I'd be shocked if Iglesias isnt with the big club at at least a couple points during the season. If one of Punto, Aviles, or Pedroia hits the DL, doesnt Iglesias get the first call?
   9. Darren Posted: March 25, 2012 at 09:19 PM (#4089086)
I think the chances of him hitting .429 are only a bit higher than the chances of him ISO'ing .035.
   10. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: March 25, 2012 at 10:12 PM (#4089099)
Also, while I dont think Iglesias deserves to make the club, the Red Sox are actually pretty thin at the position and I'd be shocked if Iglesias isnt with the big club at at least a couple points during the season. If one of Punto, Aviles, or Pedroia hits the DL, doesnt Iglesias get the first call?


Unless he hits .162 in April he will. I think there is a 50-50 chance that the All Star Break arrives with Iglesias as the everyday shortstop. I would need to see more to be convinced that he is ready to go though.

I also think the above is true if you substitute "Lavarnway" and "catcher" for "Igleisas" and "shortstop" though in Lavarnway's case it's more a confidence in the incumbents than his lack of readiness. I think Saltalamacchia/Shoppach has the potential to be a very good combination.
   11. Mattbert Posted: March 25, 2012 at 10:13 PM (#4089101)
Two young guys having strong springs; it's a nice problem to have if you're the manager. Doubly so since it's an easy one to resolve, I would think. Break camp with the senior players (who have been doing just fine themselves) and see what you've got. If they aren't getting it done and Lavarnway and Iglesias perform well in Pawtucket, then you make the call.

Bobby will earn his corn with his decisions about the bullpen and the back end of the rotation. The shortstop and catching situations seem like tap-ins at the moment.
   12. OCD SS Posted: March 26, 2012 at 07:26 AM (#4089184)
So, just so I've got this straight: really improved defense at SS will help the pitching staff save enough runs that we don't care about a horrible bat, and the reverse is true at catcher?
   13. John DiFool2 Posted: March 26, 2012 at 09:31 AM (#4089223)
Two young guys having strong springs; it's a nice problem to have if you're the manager.


Iglesias has been in a dire slump since he came back from his injury, and when I checked yesterday he was hitting below .200.
   14. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: March 26, 2012 at 09:55 AM (#4089240)
Iglesias has been in a slump since he came from Cuba.
   15. Brian Posted: March 26, 2012 at 10:21 AM (#4089253)
Saltalamacchia/Shoppach has the potential to be a very good combination.


I realize Shoppach has hir LHP a little bit but he looks like a candidate for a total colllapse to me. Salty? Lord knows what he'll give you but there is plenty of upside there.
   16. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: March 26, 2012 at 11:08 AM (#4089279)
Iglesias has been in a slump since he came from Cuba.


Are the Red Sox 100% sure they signed the right Jose?
   17. The Piehole of David Wells Posted: March 26, 2012 at 11:46 AM (#4089299)
Iglesias has been in a dire slump since he came back from his injury, and when I checked yesterday he was hitting below .200.


Iglesias' spring OPS is about what his 2011 MLE was: .501. The scary thing is that Rey Ordonez posted that a couple of times, so it's not out of the question that Bobby V could see him as a starting SS. I'm going to bet though that the Sox will trust in the minor league staff, scouts, etc., to let him know when/if Iglesias is ready.
   18. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: March 26, 2012 at 11:52 AM (#4089304)
Are the Red Sox 100% sure they signed the right Jose?


Or even a "Jose" at all?
   19. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: March 26, 2012 at 11:57 AM (#4089307)
once you see the bunt get down you go right?


Jerry Remy (who I'm guessing laid down a few bunts in his day) said during the broadcast that if the bunt goes toward the pitcher, the runner on third is supposed to read that and not go, because he'll be a dead duck. Which is exactly what happened.
   20. Mattbert Posted: March 26, 2012 at 01:25 PM (#4089349)
Are the Red Sox 100% sure they signed the right Jose?

I think it's more a question of whether they signed the right Iglesias.

Iglesias has been in a dire slump since he came back from his injury, and when I checked yesterday he was hitting below .200.

The noises out of camp have all been that they think he can "learn to hit" in the majors or some such optimistic pap. Don't worry about it!
   21. Mattbert Posted: March 26, 2012 at 01:26 PM (#4089351)
Jerry Remy (who I'm guessing laid down a few bunts in his day) said during the broadcast that if the bunt goes toward the pitcher, the runner on third is supposed to read that and not go, because he'll be a dead duck. Which is exactly what happened.

Yes. I was always taught that on the safety squeeze you were to wait until the bunt got past the pitcher before breaking for home.
   22. bigglou115 Posted: March 26, 2012 at 02:18 PM (#4089396)
I agree with all of this. I actually do think Lavarnway has a decent shot at being the best catcher on their roster, right now. That said, I dont have a huge problem starting him in AAA. But I'd have a short leash on Salty.


The Braves fans who still complain about the Tex trade disagree. I can understand wishing we had Andrus or Feliz, but so many of them still go on about giving up the NUMBER ONE PROSPECT in the system.
   23. Toby Posted: March 26, 2012 at 05:05 PM (#4089535)
Perhaps someone should explain to Valentine that this is the American League, where you can't get by with zero offense from the shortstop.

Then again, maybe his plan is use the DH for Iglesias and let the pitcher hit?
   24. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: March 26, 2012 at 05:20 PM (#4089550)
Perhaps someone should explain to Valentine that this is the American League, where you can't get by with zero offense from the shortstop.


While I don't want Iglesias out there if he's hitting .200/.260/.280 the Sox can do just fine if he's at a .600 OPS (assuming his glove is truly elite). If Iglesias is saving more runs than he costs at the plate, the Sox are better off. Arguably it doesn't even need to be that good if you accept that a run saved > a run scored.
   25. Bob Evans Posted: March 26, 2012 at 09:12 PM (#4089737)
Perhaps someone should explain to Valentine that this is the American League, where you can't get by with zero offense from the shortstop.

2007 WS champ's production from starting SS: .237/.294/.349, OPS+ 65.
   26. Textbook Editor Posted: March 26, 2012 at 09:53 PM (#4089783)
2007 WS champ's production from starting SS: .237/.294/.349, OPS+ 65.


Well, sure, but I'm guessing even fanboy projections for the offense of the 2012 starting 9 (include Crawford if you want too) don't come out better than the actual 2007 performances from that starting 9...

I'm fine with seeing what he does in Pawtucket for 2 months and then re-assessing June 1st. If he's learned out to hit--or Aviles is a disaster with the glove and hits poorly--then you bring him up and accept below-average production and look to upgrade elsewhere. Maybe that means Lavarnway comes up as well and starts catching 2 days a week to get some more pop out of the C position; who knows?
   27. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: March 26, 2012 at 10:06 PM (#4089792)
Well, sure, but I'm guessing even fanboy projections for the offense of the 2012 starting 9 (include Crawford if you want too) don't come out better than the actual 2007 performances from that starting 9...


Curiosity sent me searching;

2007 OPS+

Youkilis - 117
Pedroia - 112
Lowell - 124
Lugo - 65
Ramirez - 126
Crisp - 83
Drew - 105
Varitek - 103
Ortiz - 171

2012 OPS+ (ZiPS)

Gonzalez - 138
Pedroia - 118
Youkilis - 124
Iglesias - 59
Crawford - 102
Ellsbury - 110
Sweeney - 92
Saltalamacchia - 84
Ortiz - 123

Edge 4-3-1 (not counting shortstop) for 2007. The two big things that jump at me are how big an edge 2007 Ortiz has over the 2012 forecasted version of himself and how Varitek really changes the shape of the lineup. Both teams feature two weak positions (SS and RF in 2012, SS and CF in 2007) but Varitek's last good season changes the look and feel of the lineup versus what Saltalamacchia's forecast is.
   28. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: March 26, 2012 at 10:16 PM (#4089800)
Crawford - 102

please, PLEASE, let this be somewhat true. Surely Crawford can't be as bad as last season?
   29. Dan Posted: March 26, 2012 at 11:38 PM (#4089863)
I expect both RF and C would come out better if you projected a straight platoon between Sweeney/Ross and Saltalamacchia/Shoppach, respectively.
   30. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: March 27, 2012 at 07:43 AM (#4089924)
I expect both RF and C would come out better if you projected a straight platoon between Sweeney/Ross and Saltalamacchia/Shoppach, respectively.


Do strict platoons ever work out for an entire season to match their projections? Both in terms of OPS and playing time it seems like there would be more downside and not as much upside - the reason the guy is platooning is because he isn't good enough to do it alone. Anyone know how to check this?

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