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Wednesday, April 24, 2019

LEADING OFF: Sabathia nearing 3,000 Ks, Snell’s toe a go

A look at what’s happening around the majors Wednesday:

SABATHIA’S STRIKEOUTS

Yankees pitcher CC Sabathia needs six strikeouts to join Randy Johnson and Steve Carlton as the only left-handers with 3,000 Ks, putting him within reach during a start against the Angels. Sabathia (1-0, 0.00 ERA) would be the 17th player overall to reach the milestone. When he does, he’ll be the first pitcher to do so since John Smoltz in 2008. The 38-year-old Sabathia announced prior to the season that he’ll retire at year’s end.

So, what will he do to celebrate this milestone?

 

QLE Posted: April 24, 2019 at 04:08 AM | 41 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: c.c. sabathia, strikeouts

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   1. JL72 Posted: April 24, 2019 at 10:45 AM (#5834813)
Barring the unforeseen, Sabathia will get his 3,000 SO shortly. Verlander has an outside shot of getting to the number as well (he stands at 2744).

Would be pretty cool to see two reach that milestone in the same year.
   2. DanG Posted: April 24, 2019 at 12:00 PM (#5834837)
All pitchers with 2700+ strikeouts and less than 280 wins:

Player             W   SO  WAR     IP From   To
Mike Mussina     270 2813 82.8 3562.2 1991 2008
Bob Gibson       251 3117 81.6 3884.1 1959 1975 H
CC Sabathia      247 2994 62.8 3480.0 2001 2019
Frank Tanana     240 2773 57.0 4188.1 1973 1993
Jim Bunning      224 2855 60.3 3760.1 1955 1971 H
Pedro Martinez   219 3154 86.1 2827.1 1992 2009 H
Mickey Lolich    217 2832 47.9 3638.1 1963 1979
Curt Schilling   216 3116 80.5 3261.0 1988 2007
John Smoltz      213 3084 66.4 3473.0 1988 2009 H
Justin Verlander 207 2744 64.6 2789.0 2005 2019 
   3. PreservedFish Posted: April 24, 2019 at 12:19 PM (#5834841)
Do you think if CC had stayed with the Indians for his entire career, he'd have a significantly better chance of reaching the HOF?
   4. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: April 24, 2019 at 12:31 PM (#5834850)
Only if the Indians prevented the steep decline he suffered between 2012 and 2013, which I don't see any reason to believe they would. I suppose if you believe that his early decline was because he got overworked by the Brewers down the stretch to win a division title and then pitched on short rest multiple times in 2009 to win a championship, then it could make sense, but it's kind of a stretch to assign such a cause and effect.
   5. PreservedFish Posted: April 24, 2019 at 12:41 PM (#5834857)
No, I mean, if he had the same exact statistics, but that "one team" sheen on him, would it change things?
   6. Zonk isn't Defacing the Nation Posted: April 24, 2019 at 12:50 PM (#5834862)
Meh, I think he ends up in regardless.... May take a few ballots, but he ought to end up around 65 WAR, 30 WAA, 250 wins, and the ace of three fairly well-regarded teams.

That's not inner circle by any means, but you also don't need Morrisian lowered-bars-that-are-really-tunnels to get him in.

He'll be fine....
   7. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 24, 2019 at 12:57 PM (#5834865)

Yeah, he should make it regardless. The fact that he already has a side-gig with ESPN shows that he is well-liked by the media which should help his cause as well.
   8. JL72 Posted: April 24, 2019 at 01:13 PM (#5834868)
I don't see how Sabathia does not make it in. He should be at 250 wins, 3400 IP and 3000 SOs by the end of the year. I could see it taking a couple of years, but he will be inducted.
   9. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 24, 2019 at 01:16 PM (#5834870)
I suppose if you believe that his early decline was because he got overworked by the Brewers down the stretch to win a division title and then pitched on short rest multiple times in 2009 to win a championship, then it could make sense, but it's kind of a stretch to assign such a cause and effect.

I think that's beyond a stretch, it's totally implausible. The Brewer's stint was in 2008. In 2009 he threw 230 IP to a 137 ERA+. In 2010, 237.2 IP to a 136 ERA+, in 2011, 237.a IP to a 143 ERA+, in 2012, 200 IP to a 125 ERA+.

His steep decline was in 2013, 4-5 years after the alleged overuse. I know of no theory of pitcher oversue that leads to severe problems, but only after 1000 more IP of excellence.
   10. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 24, 2019 at 01:27 PM (#5834873)
Do you think if CC had stayed with the Indians for his entire career, he'd have a significantly better chance of reaching the HOF?

Playing for just one team may make it easier to keep track of a player, and give him a fan base, media contingent and team inclined to tout his candidacy for the Hall, but that isn’t much these days. We now expect HoF voters to be able to check BB-Ref, or similar sources. Sabathia going to the Yankees brought him more attention than sticking with 1 team would have, so it’s not really a factor for him.

A good season for Sabathia could move him into relatively “easy election” territory, with 260 wins, 3000+ K’s, 100 wins over .500 & 65+ WAR, along with the opportunity to build the narrative a bit. If he were to struggle, or be struck down by injury, it might be multi-ballot process, not unlike Mussina, but I think he makes it either way.
   11. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 24, 2019 at 01:51 PM (#5834882)
I think that's beyond a stretch, it's totally implausible. The Brewer's stint was in 2008. In 2009 he threw 230 IP to a 137 ERA+. In 2010, 237.2 IP to a 136 ERA+, in 2011, 237.a IP to a 143 ERA+, in 2012, 200 IP to a 125 ERA+.

Counting the postseason, he basically threw the same number of innings in 2008 as he did in 2007 with the Indians. And he threw more in 2009, and about the same number in 2010, with the Yankees. So I guess the real questions are whether the Indians would have cut back his usage if they had kept him, and whether his usage pattern with the Brewers and Yankees caused his decline (and whether the decline hurts his case more than the strength of those seasons, combined with an ALCS MVP and WS ring).
   12. oscar madisox Posted: April 24, 2019 at 01:53 PM (#5834884)
Two things stand out to me about Sabathia's career.

First, this is his 11th year with the Yankees. He spent 7 1/2 with the Indians. I would have guessed it was the other way around.

Second, he has been incredibly durable, making 27 or more starts in every year of his career, save one. I think of CC as being often injured, but he's started 29, 30, 27, and 29 games in the last four years.

   13. Blastin Posted: April 24, 2019 at 01:53 PM (#5834885)
I'm just happy he made it back from his addiction issues. And right then and there, at the same time, found the new approach that extended his career.
   14. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: April 24, 2019 at 02:04 PM (#5834891)
Love me some Carsten Charles; pitch on, big man.

That is all.
   15. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: April 24, 2019 at 02:28 PM (#5834906)
First, this is his 11th year with the Yankees. He spent 7 1/2 with the Indians. I would have guessed it was the other way around.

Me, too. If he'd come up with the Yankees he'd be Andy Pettitte, only without the PED issue, plus he'd have had 5 more years of postseason exposure between 2001 and 2008, and possibly another ring or two.
   16. bobm Posted: April 24, 2019 at 02:37 PM (#5834911)
[2]

Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1871 to 2019, not a Hall Of Fame Member (as mlb players), (requiring SO>=3000), sorted by greatest Strikeouts

                                                 
Rk           Player   SO   W   L     IP  ERA ERA+
1     Roger Clemens 4672 354 184 4916.2 3.12  143
2    Curt Schilling 3116 216 146 3261.0 3.46  127


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/24/2019.
   17. Blastin Posted: April 24, 2019 at 03:03 PM (#5834917)
If he'd come up with the Yankees he'd be Andy Pettitte, only without the PED issue, plus he'd have had 5 more years of postseason exposure between 2001 and 2008, and possibly another ring or two.


They probably win in 01 (when the actual Pettitte was terrible in the WS), 03 or 04. Just by chance, not dissing any of the other teams, but CC could have outpitched their worst pitchers, I think. Though maybe he doesn't come up if the Yankees have the same staff of legends.
   18. SoSH U at work Posted: April 24, 2019 at 03:12 PM (#5834923)

They probably win in 01 (when the actual Pettitte was terrible in the WS),


It's hard to see what Yankee player you can substitute out and get a different result in 01, other than Rivera* in G7. They were thoroughly uncompetitive in their losses other than the last one, when SP wasn't an issue.


* Though the Yanks might not get to a G7 with an ordinary closer replacing Rivera in Games 3-5.



   19. Karl from NY Posted: April 24, 2019 at 03:20 PM (#5834927)
Do you think if CC had stayed with the Indians for his entire career, he'd have a significantly better chance of reaching the HOF?

Since it was the Yankees he went to, no, nobody ever gets less notice for being a Yankee. If he'd gone to someplace like Detroit or Minnesota, yes, that would be significantly worse than being a career Indian.
   20. Blastin Posted: April 24, 2019 at 03:31 PM (#5834934)
It's hard to see what Yankee player you can substitute out and get a different result in 01, other than Rivera* in G7. They were thoroughly uncompetitive in their losses other than the last one, when SP wasn't an issue.


Yeah I forgot that not only was Pettitte terrible, it was in games where Johnson was great. Maybe it was for the best he was terrible so they didn't have to use RP in high leverage situations.
   21. Blastin Posted: April 24, 2019 at 03:33 PM (#5834937)
Double post.

I think he just misses tonight, and therefore it would happen in the place 01 ended, Arizona.
   22. Tom Nawrocki Posted: April 24, 2019 at 04:07 PM (#5834964)
If he'd come up with the Yankees he'd be Andy Pettitte,


I'm not sure what that means, since Sabathia is already Pettitte. Their numbers are about as similar as two pitchers can be, 256-153 vs. 247-143, 3.85 vs. 3.69, 117 ERA+ vs. 117 ERA+. Sabathia, of course, is still building on his numbers. My subjective viewpoint is that Sabathia is considered the greater pitcher, and will do much better in the Hall of Fame voting than Pettitte's 10 percent.
   23. cardsfanboy Posted: April 24, 2019 at 05:31 PM (#5835011)
It's interesting how the game has changed... When I was a baby, my dad took me to see Bob Gibson pitch because he was going to be the second pitcher in baseball history to reach 3000 strikeouts.... Now there are 17 pitchers, and that number is going to go up rapidly, even with the reduced workloads.
   24. PreservedFish Posted: April 24, 2019 at 05:39 PM (#5835012)
My subjective viewpoint is that Sabathia is considered the greater pitcher, and will do much better in the Hall of Fame voting than Pettitte's 10 percent.


Yes, Sabathia seems like he was an ace for years at a time, and Pettitte never really did. It must follow therefore that Pettitte was better in his bad years, and bad Sabathia was worse than bad Pettitte.
   25. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 24, 2019 at 06:24 PM (#5835020)
It's interesting how the game has changed... When I was a baby, my dad took me to see Bob Gibson pitch because he was going to be the second pitcher in baseball history to reach 3000 strikeouts.... Now there are 17 pitchers, and that number is going to go up rapidly, even with the reduced workloads.
What's the over/under on when the first reliever reaches 3000 career Ks? 2045?
   26. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: April 24, 2019 at 06:44 PM (#5835022)
What's the over/under on when the first reliever reaches 3000 career Ks? 2045?


August 10th
   27. PreservedFish Posted: April 24, 2019 at 06:56 PM (#5835025)
Think there's a 2,000 K reliever that's active today? Top guns like Chapman, KImbrel and Diaz have averaged about 100 Ks per full season. Betances is up near 120! Hader struck out 140 last year. Seems extremely possible.
   28. cardsfanboy Posted: April 24, 2019 at 07:20 PM (#5835032)
What's the over/under on when the first reliever reaches 3000 career Ks? 2045?


I'll take the under, teams are figuring out how to keep relievers in the game longer. And the money will be there for the players, they'll actually probably see a drop in the highest pay, but a guy you can count on for 3 years as a reliever is going to have a good pay day... and is probably a guy who would have been out of baseball in the 80's.
   29. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: April 24, 2019 at 07:21 PM (#5835033)
Do you think if CC had stayed with the Indians for his entire career, he'd have a significantly better chance of reaching the HOF?


Nah. I'd say he's close to a lock already, especially because he sort of fits a "last of a generation" mold of workhorse starter, and was one of the best of them. 3000 Ks hasn't lost meaning yet, and I imagine it would be his ticket if he weren't already destined for Cooperstown.

Sabathia had a three year walkabout in his early 30s, but his bounceback as a crafty lefty in his mid-late 30s has pretty much sealed his hall chances. Born in a different era and he likely would have won 300 games. I think people are going to appreciate that.

I also want to toot my own horn in the most immodest way and say that onceago I thought that Sabathia had this renaissance in him, and a certain spectrumy Italian lawyer mocked me for it, once again proving he that there is fault in rigidity and that I am the Smartest Person in the Entire World (tm).
   30. bobm Posted: April 24, 2019 at 07:28 PM (#5835037)
[24] Yes, Sabathia seems like he was an ace for years at a time, and Pettitte never really did. It must follow therefore that Pettitte was better in his bad years, and bad Sabathia was worse than bad Pettitte.

The data seem to support that. They each have 18 complete seasons through 2018.

By ERA+

Top 9: CC 6, Andy 3

2nd 9: CC 4, Andy 5
3rd 9: CC 2, Andy 7

Bot 9: CC 6, Andy 3


                                                          
Rk          Player   ERA+  WAR Year Age  Tm Lg  W  L    IP
1    Andy Pettitte    177  6.8 2005  33 HOU NL 17  9 222.1
2      CC Sabathia    156  6.7 2008  27 TOT ML 17 10 253.0
3    Andy Pettitte    156  8.4 1997  25 NYY AL 18  7 240.1
4    Andy Pettitte    148  2.1 2012  40 NYY AL  5  4  75.1
5      CC Sabathia    143  6.4 2011  30 NYY AL 19  8 237.1
6      CC Sabathia    141  6.3 2007  26 CLE AL 19  7 241.0
7      CC Sabathia    139  4.6 2006  25 CLE AL 12 11 192.2
8      CC Sabathia    137  6.2 2009  28 NYY AL 19  8 230.0
9      CC Sabathia    136  4.8 2010  29 NYY AL 21  7 237.2
10   Andy Pettitte    135  3.2 2002  30 NYY AL 13  5 134.2
11   Andy Pettitte    132  2.6 2010  38 NYY AL 11  3 129.0
12   Andy Pettitte    129  5.6 1996  24 NYY AL 21  8 221.0
13     CC Sabathia    125  3.4 2012  31 NYY AL 15  6 200.0
14     CC Sabathia    122  3.7 2003  22 CLE AL 13  9 197.2
15     CC Sabathia    122  2.9 2017  36 NYY AL 14  5 148.2
16     CC Sabathia    119  2.4 2018  37 NYY AL  9  7 153.0
17   Andy Pettitte    112  3.5 2001  29 NYY AL 15 10 200.2
18   Andy Pettitte    112  3.8 2007  35 NYY AL 15  9 215.1
19   Andy Pettitte    111  2.9 1995  23 NYY AL 12  9 175.0
20   Andy Pettitte    111  1.1 2004  32 HOU NL  6  4  83.0
21   Andy Pettitte    111  3.6 2000  28 NYY AL 19  9 204.2
22   Andy Pettitte    111  3.4 2009  37 NYY AL 14  8 194.2
23     CC Sabathia    110  3.2 2016  35 NYY AL  9 12 179.2
24   Andy Pettitte    110  3.1 2003  31 NYY AL 21  8 208.1
25   Andy Pettitte    107  2.2 2013  41 NYY AL 11 11 185.1
26   Andy Pettitte    106  1.5 2006  34 HOU NL 14 13 214.1
27     CC Sabathia    106  3.1 2004  23 CLE AL 11 10 188.0
28   Andy Pettitte    104  2.4 1998  26 NYY AL 16 11 216.1
29     CC Sabathia    104  1.8 2005  24 CLE AL 15 10 196.2
30     CC Sabathia    102  2.9 2001  20 CLE AL 17  5 180.1
31     CC Sabathia    100  3.3 2002  21 CLE AL 13 11 210.0
32   Andy Pettitte    100  2.4 1999  27 NYY AL 14 11 191.2
33   Andy Pettitte     97  2.2 2008  36 NYY AL 14 14 204.0
34     CC Sabathia     86  1.2 2015  34 NYY AL  6 10 167.1
35     CC Sabathia     84  0.0 2013  32 NYY AL 14 13 211.0
36     CC Sabathia     73 -0.6 2014  33 NYY AL  3  4  46.0


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/24/2019.
   31. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 24, 2019 at 07:43 PM (#5835044)
Rk Player ERA+ WAR Year Age Tm Lg W L IP
1 Andy Pettitte 177 6.8 2005 33 HOU NL 17 9 222.1
2 CC Sabathia 156 6.7 2008 27 TOT ML 17 10 253.0
3 Andy Pettitte 156 8.4 1997 25 NYY AL 18 7 240.1
4 Andy Pettitte 148 2.1 2012 40 NYY AL 5 4 75.1
5 CC Sabathia 143 6.4 2011 30 NYY AL 19 8 237.1
6 CC Sabathia 141 6.3 2007 26 CLE AL 19 7 241.0
7 CC Sabathia 139 4.6 2006 25 CLE AL 12 11 192.2
8 CC Sabathia 137 6.2 2009 28 NYY AL 19 8 230.0
9 CC Sabathia 136 4.8 2010 29 NYY AL 21 7 237.2
10 Andy Pettitte 135 3.2 2002 30 NYY AL 13 5 134.2
11 Andy Pettitte 132 2.6 2010 38 NYY AL 11 3 129.0
12 Andy Pettitte 129 5.6 1996 24 NYY AL 21 8 221.0
13 CC Sabathia 125 3.4 2012 31 NYY AL 15 6 200.0
14 CC Sabathia 122 3.7 2003 22 CLE AL 13 9 197.2
15 CC Sabathia 122 2.9 2017 36 NYY AL 14 5 148.2
16 CC Sabathia 119 2.4 2018 37 NYY AL 9 7 153.0
17 Andy Pettitte 112 3.5 2001 29 NYY AL 15 10 200.2
18 Andy Pettitte 112 3.8 2007 35 NYY AL 15 9 215.1
19 Andy Pettitte 111 2.9 1995 23 NYY AL 12 9 175.0
20 Andy Pettitte 111 1.1 2004 32 HOU NL 6 4 83.0
21 Andy Pettitte 111 3.6 2000 28 NYY AL 19 9 204.2
22 Andy Pettitte 111 3.4 2009 37 NYY AL 14 8 194.2
23 CC Sabathia 110 3.2 2016 35 NYY AL 9 12 179.2
24 Andy Pettitte 110 3.1 2003 31 NYY AL 21 8 208.1
25 Andy Pettitte 107 2.2 2013 41 NYY AL 11 11 185.1
26 Andy Pettitte 106 1.5 2006 34 HOU NL 14 13 214.1
27 CC Sabathia 106 3.1 2004 23 CLE AL 11 10 188.0
28 Andy Pettitte 104 2.4 1998 26 NYY AL 16 11 216.1
29 CC Sabathia 104 1.8 2005 24 CLE AL 15 10 196.2
30 CC Sabathia 102 2.9 2001 20 CLE AL 17 5 180.1
31 CC Sabathia 100 3.3 2002 21 CLE AL 13 11 210.0
32 Andy Pettitte 100 2.4 1999 27 NYY AL 14 11 191.2
33 Andy Pettitte 97 2.2 2008 36 NYY AL 14 14 204.0
34 CC Sabathia 86 1.2 2015 34 NYY AL 6 10 167.1
35 CC Sabathia 84 0.0 2013 32 NYY AL 14 13 211.0
36 CC Sabathia 73 -0.6 2014 33 NYY AL 3 4 46.0


That's pretty amazing. Pettitte literally never had a bad season in his career.
   32. SoSH U at work Posted: April 24, 2019 at 11:30 PM (#5835143)
That's pretty amazing. Pettitte literally never had a bad season in his career.


And you could throw his playoff career in there, and it looks like an average Pettitte season, just more workhorsey.

   33. Walt Davis Posted: April 24, 2019 at 11:34 PM (#5835144)
Reliever with 3,000 Ks? I can't tell if you guys are serious. Even at 2 Ks per inning (God help us), that will take 1500 innings. Even Mariano had fewer than 1300. Who knows what the future holds but there is no trend toward longer relief careers or higher in-season usage of individual relievers.

Hader had a high ip/gr last year but even with another 19 seasons like that, taking him through age 43, he comes up short. Get back to me when we see a reliever survive 2 straight 100 ip seasons of leveraged use.
   34. Karl from NY Posted: April 25, 2019 at 10:23 AM (#5835205)
1 Andy Pettitte 177 6.8 2005 33 HOU NL 17 9 222.1

So Pettitte's one huge standout season came in Houston, getting less notice for both not being in New York with his original team and being overshadowed by Clemens.

Reliever with 3,000 Ks? I can't tell if you guys are serious.

If anything like that happens, it'd be the new-rotation type. A guy who pitches innings 4-6 for one trip through the order every 4th day. 5 K/game times 40 games times 15 years. OK, that's still pretty farfetched but just barely on the horizon of possible.
   35. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: April 25, 2019 at 10:56 AM (#5835217)
No reliever has had 1500 in a career yet. Let's slow waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay down before suggesting 3000.
   36. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 25, 2019 at 11:01 AM (#5835221)
Reliever with 3,000 Ks? I can't tell if you guys are serious.
I was being mostly snarky.
   37. PreservedFish Posted: April 25, 2019 at 11:16 AM (#5835231)
It was a good snark.
   38. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: April 25, 2019 at 11:17 AM (#5835232)
Career leaders, strikeouts in relief:
Trevor Hoffman      1133
Mariano Rivera      1135
Francisco Rodriguez 1142
Lindy McDaniel      1165
Jesse Orosco        1169
Rollie Fingers      1183
Billy Wagner        1196
Lee Smith           1225
Rich Gossage        1340
Hoyt Wilhelm        1363 


Note the lack of recent dudes, not only because they're active, but top relievers aren't necessarily likely to pitch for as long or for as many innings.
   39. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: April 25, 2019 at 11:25 AM (#5835237)
Rich Gossage 1340
Hoyt Wilhelm 1363


And those guys both pitched for 150 years.

EDIT: Though not quite as long as Orosco, I guess....
   40. BillWallace Posted: April 26, 2019 at 02:07 PM (#5835679)
I think this topic is dead but I'm going to throw this in here.

CC is a HoF lock, and I have some confidence that he'll go in on the first ballot. My best guess at this point is that he cruises in first ballot with let's say 80-82%.

I'm fairly surprised that many people here seem not to realize how certain he is to get into the hall. I'll expand on it more in one of the future inevitable CC HoF topics.
   41. cardsfanboy Posted: April 26, 2019 at 06:56 PM (#5835746)
CC is a HoF lock, and I have some confidence that he'll go in on the first ballot. My best guess at this point is that he cruises in first ballot with let's say 80-82%



Not remotely seeing it... I think he's deserving, but he has so many different arguments for being in, that it's going to be tough to solidify them among the electorate..First ballot seems a big stretch, even with the improving of the electorate.

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