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Tuesday, March 09, 2010

Lebowitz: The final act of Moneyball is upon us

But the foundation is crumbling beneath Moneyball.

Reporters are still afraid to look at the Athletics of 2010——seven years after the book was published——for what they are.

They’re in a bastard of a division. They’re relying on a bunch of players who can field and not hit; hit and not field; a load of young (and talented) pitching; an oft-injured ace who’s being anointed as a guru; and a figurehead of a manager who’s going to be sent flying off the hot air balloon of Beane’s ego as ballast in a last-ditch effort for the “genius” to survive.

It’s coming down.

There’s no “wait and see”. No “give it a chance”. The chances are up. Beane’s out of options; out of money; out of capital. Lewis’s book——his caveats and the relentless defenders and final holdouts still defending Beane——are finished. Still crediting the book as truth; still saying Paul DePodesta, Sandy Alderson actually knew what they were doing as they took Moneyball and stat-based theories to its logical and ravaged conclusion; and attacking those that disagree with them isn’t working anymore.

... The story to watch isn’t whether or not it’s going to happen; the story is how quickly it spirals; and how Beane’s exit from Oakland will be orchestrated for him to save face. A face that is no longer salvageable to those that understand the truth. The truth that the book was a hackneyed lie whose fate is at hand. It won’t be a pretty sight. Nor should it be.

I can watch without flinching.

Can you?

Can they?

Thanks (?) to Cubano Carlos.

Repoz Posted: March 09, 2010 at 12:54 PM | 26 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: athletics, history, sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. buddy34 Posted: March 09, 2010 at 01:30 PM (#3475508)
sheesh. who is this guy, anyway?
   2. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: March 09, 2010 at 01:42 PM (#3475512)
The truth that the book was a hackneyed lie whose fate is at hand.

Maybe a lie, but Lewis isn't a hack. Lebowitz, however...
   3. Greg (U)K Posted: March 09, 2010 at 02:29 PM (#3475524)
I was actually at a sports history conference this weekend delivering a paper on retrosheet.org and who controls the narrative of baseball history.

A question came up about whether there has been any backlash against the increasingly statistical analysis of baseball, and I was floored that anyone would even have to ask that. Sometimes I forget that this titanic struggle over how you're supposed to watch a baseball game that's been going on these past years isn't common knowledge. Or at least, common knowledge within the academic community.
   4. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: March 09, 2010 at 02:59 PM (#3475539)
Without even remotely addressing this guy's argument, the one conclusion that I came to when I read Moneyball (which I did last year, as part of an orgy of Michael Lewis reading, from Liar's Poker onwards) is that the A's where nuts to have allowed Lewis access to write that book.

I say that because they absolutely let on what they were doing AND any halfway insecure GM or exec who read the book has to think that any call from Beane to make a deal is an attempt to butt-ream him (or her, for that matter).
   5. Sean Forman Posted: March 09, 2010 at 03:00 PM (#3475543)
Greg,

Could I see your paper? sf@s-ref.com
   6. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: March 09, 2010 at 03:03 PM (#3475544)
Actually Greg, if possible, could you make a link to the paper? You may as well let all of us laugh at you. Naw, I kid, but the paper does sound interesting.
   7. Greg (U)K Posted: March 09, 2010 at 03:08 PM (#3475548)
I could provide a fairly rough draft of it. My paper presenting technique consists of writing out some ideas and then frantically crossing out stuff and re-writing bits while other panelists are trying to present theirs.

Also I actually don't really know how to make a link, sorry about that. I could send it to you as well, though I do have to warn you it's entirely outside of my area of expertise (17th century English political culture), I just got wind of a sports history conference and just jumped at the chance to throw something about baseball together.
   8. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: March 09, 2010 at 03:15 PM (#3475551)
Also I actually don't really know how to make a link, sorry about that. I could send it to you as well, though I do have to warn you it's entirely outside of my area of expertise (17th century English political culture), I just got wind of a sports history conference and just jumped at the chance to throw something about baseball together.

Send it over. I need something to distract me from my desire to resurrect the Superbad vs. Napoleon Dynamite thread.
   9. Greg (U)K Posted: March 09, 2010 at 03:21 PM (#3475556)
Excellent. I'm going to guess....Shooty@Shooty.Shooty?

And best to avoid that debate, I love one of those movies more than I should, and probably hate the other one more than I should.
   10. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: March 09, 2010 at 03:23 PM (#3475558)
Excellent. I'm going to guess....Shooty@Shooty.Shooty?

You can get to my e-mail through my profile. For some reason it makes me feel like I'm protecting my information that way instead of just typing my e-mail in the thread. I am batshit insane, I think.
   11. robinred Posted: March 09, 2010 at 03:24 PM (#3475560)
Send it over. I need something to distract me from....doing my actual job.
   12. The cushions are crowded for Edmundo Posted: March 09, 2010 at 03:35 PM (#3475565)
Billy Beane should have never eaten Lebowitz' children.

The vitriol is remarkable but there is a grain of truth to what he says -- if this year spirals into the pits, the logical conclusion is that either Beane got lucky with his 3 star pitchers or he has gone insane.
   13. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L) Posted: March 09, 2010 at 03:38 PM (#3475567)
I do have to warn you it's entirely outside of my area of expertise (17th century English political culture)
Most baseball writers have majored in your area of expertise, I believe.
   14. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: March 09, 2010 at 03:43 PM (#3475575)
17th century English political culture


This is a fun area of expertise to have. And no, I'm not kidding.
   15. Greg (U)K Posted: March 09, 2010 at 03:43 PM (#3475576)
OK, clearly I am technologically impaired because I can't figure out how to send attachments through thinkfactory's e-mail system. If it's any consolation, know that you aren't missing much.

On the plus side I did discover that I've been using my old university e-mail as my thinkfactory e-mail, so I've uncovered some notes people have sent me over the past three years that I have rudely ignored.
   16. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: March 09, 2010 at 03:50 PM (#3475585)
17th century English political culture


the Cromwells beat the Stuarts in 7, as I recall
   17. robinred Posted: March 09, 2010 at 04:16 PM (#3475612)
The vitriol is remarkable but there is a grain of truth to what he says


Yes to both. The other thing going on here is that Lewis wrote the book in such a way so as to imply the A's were way ahead of the curve, etc. and one things we humans enjoy is seeing perceived arrogance get its deserved comeuppance. Add that to the stat/scout thing = Lebowitz-level vitriol. I remember a few years ago, BP used to use a quote from Lewis on their cover, which said that any GM who hasn't read BP should be "fired for incompetence." It is that kind of stuff, from Lewis, more than anything Beane has said outside of the book, that fuels some of this. (Yes, I know that Beane wrote the book himself ;-)

I also noticed that this year's BP is very positive about Kenny Williams.
   18. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: March 09, 2010 at 04:33 PM (#3475630)
17, Thing is, didn't the A's know that Lewis was "the Enemy?" (I mean, Almost Famous was already out by them :-)).
   19. Best Regards, Larry M. Posted: March 09, 2010 at 06:45 PM (#3475782)
I was actually at a sports history conference this weekend delivering a paper on retrosheet.org and who controls the narrative of baseball history.

Link to Greg's paper.

Greg's presentation.
   20. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: March 09, 2010 at 06:48 PM (#3475786)
I'm not touching those links. Hells no y'all.
   21. Best Regards, Larry M. Posted: March 09, 2010 at 06:51 PM (#3475791)
Do it. They're not Albrights. They're worth looking at. Very enlightening.
   22. Dewey, Steven Wright Wannabe and Soupuss Posted: March 09, 2010 at 06:51 PM (#3475793)
I also noticed that this year's BP is very positive about Kenny Williams.

I still remember the BP annuals from 2003-2005. They hated Kenny Williams. I believe at one point they were calling him the worst GM in baseball. He had to win a World Series before they admitted that Ken Williams had some idea of what was going on, and I'm pretty sure that Joe Sheehan still hates the White Sox.
   23. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: March 09, 2010 at 06:52 PM (#3475794)
Do it. They're not Albrights. They're worth looking at. Very enlightening.

Double hells no now. I'd ask a Primate I trust to scout them out for me but, um, well...
   24. Best Regards, Larry M. Posted: March 09, 2010 at 06:54 PM (#3475798)
Double hells no now. I'd ask a Primate I trust to scout them out for me but, um, well...
Chicken.
   25. spycake Posted: March 09, 2010 at 06:56 PM (#3475801)
I say that because they absolutely let on what they were doing AND any halfway insecure GM or exec who read the book has to think that any call from Beane to make a deal is an attempt to butt-ream him (or her, for that matter).


No GM proposes trades out of altruistic motives. And every major-league GM knows this already. I doubt that Moneyball had any effect on that.
   26. gef the talking mongoose Posted: March 09, 2010 at 07:51 PM (#3475866)
Double hells no now. I'd ask a Primate I trust to scout them out for me but, um, well...

Chicken.


Brilliant!

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