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Monday, November 17, 2008

Leitch: Yankees Pick Up Nick Swisher, Who Is Horrible

Bah!  Bill Walton was more of a banker…not a swisher.

Of the 146 players to reach the 506 at-bats required to qualify for a batting title last season, Nick Swisher finished last. This is a special achievement. It necessitates that you play horribly, but not so horribly that you are benched. One could make an argument that Swisher, the first-baseman/outfielder for the White Sox in 2008, caused his team more damage than anyone else in the sport. After all, he wasn’t just bad; he was bad a lot.

In most areas of business, this sort of performance would get you marched out of town, preferably trailed by pitchforks and torches. In baseball, this gets you traded to the Yankees.

With Yankees fans salivating over C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Mark Teixeira, or, God forbid, Manny Ramirez, Brian Cashman and company started off the free-agent season by trading Wilson Betemit and some minor leaguers for Swisher, adding a mediocre player to a position in which they are stocked with enough mediocrity already. The team says it gives them “positional flexibility,” which is true. It’s also true that if you have a pocketful of dimes and nickels, you have financial flexibility. You still don’t have much of value.

Yes: To be fair, as Joe Sheehan at Baseball Prospectus points out, Swisher’s a much better player than he was last year, and he’s entering his prime. And yes, we know, thanks to the late Fire Joe Morgan, batting average doesn’t actually mean much. It was still an odd way to start free agency.

Repoz Posted: November 17, 2008 at 09:37 PM | 27 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics, yankees

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   1. The Essex Snead Posted: November 17, 2008 at 09:54 PM (#3011024)
God save the New York subscriber.
   2. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: November 17, 2008 at 09:56 PM (#3011028)
Wow. That was one schizoid article. Enjoy!
   3. SoSH U at work Posted: November 17, 2008 at 10:02 PM (#3011037)
And yes, we know, thanks to the late Fire Joe Morgan, batting average doesn’t actually mean much.


Yup, I wouldn't have known that if those sharp guys hadn't shared that revelation with me.
   4. Bob Dernier Cri Posted: November 17, 2008 at 10:05 PM (#3011043)
You have to be a heck of a ballplayer to hit .219 over almost 500 at-bats.

No wait, you don't.
   5. JPWF13 Posted: November 17, 2008 at 10:08 PM (#3011048)
One could make an argument that Swisher, the first-baseman/outfielder for the White Sox in 2008, caused his team more damage than anyone else in the sport.


You can make the argument- you'd be wrong, but you can still make the argument- it's a free country afterall.

Short list, "regular" players indisputably worse than Swish in 2008:
Willy Taveras
Michael Bourn
Jeff Francoeur
Freddy Sanchez
Bobby Crosby
Daric Barton
Mark Teahen
Adam Jones
Kevin Millar
Jose Guillen
   6. Designated Sitter (GGC) Posted: November 17, 2008 at 10:16 PM (#3011055)
Did Any Editor See That Headline, Which Is Horrible?
   7. flournoy Posted: November 17, 2008 at 10:16 PM (#3011056)
Despite only receiving a half-season's worth of plate appearances, I think you should make some room for Andruw Jones on that list.
   8. Ron Johnson Posted: November 17, 2008 at 10:26 PM (#3011065)
I wouldn't call it an argument (cue Monty Python). He made an assertion with nothing to back it up.

If Swisher plays first and hits at his 2008 level ... well the Mariners got a 68 OPS+ from their pile of clowns and the Giants got a 69.

You can do worse than Swisher 2008 at first and some team will be sure to remind us of this.
   9. Jim P Posted: November 17, 2008 at 10:26 PM (#3011066)
Of the 146 players to reach the 506 at-bats


506? What happened to 502? And it's "plate appearances".

Jack Hannahan had 503 PA and hit .218, so he wins the title.

I suppose you could also add hits to someone with fewer than 502 PA to see if they could win.
   10. flournoy Posted: November 17, 2008 at 10:31 PM (#3011074)
It's 3.1 PA per team game, so maybe he only took into account teams that played in game 163 like Swisher's White Sox. It's as dumb as everything else he says.
   11. Jose Can You Seabiscuit Posted: November 17, 2008 at 10:38 PM (#3011081)
To nitpick just a bit 163 games times 3.1 PA is 505, not 506 PA.
   12. Designated Sitter (GGC) Posted: November 17, 2008 at 11:30 PM (#3011131)
Is the server still on Atlantic Time? WTF?
   13. TVerik Posted: November 17, 2008 at 11:36 PM (#3011135)
I don't know why this is hard: If Swisher plays as well as did Wilson Betemit in 2009, the Yankees did fine. The money difference between the players is probably meaningless in NYC. It seems to me inarguable that Swisher has more upside than does Betemit. It's a good deal.
   14. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: November 17, 2008 at 11:41 PM (#3011141)
Thank you for correcting my English which stinks.
   15. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: November 18, 2008 at 12:20 AM (#3011162)
Adam Jones

Jones was "indisputably worse" than Swisher? How do you figure?
   16. Best Regards, Larry M. Posted: November 18, 2008 at 12:34 AM (#3011170)
I don't know why this is hard: If Swisher plays as well as did Wilson Betemit in 2009, the Yankees did fine. The money difference between the players is probably meaningless in NYC. It seems to me inarguable that Swisher has more upside than does Betemit. It's a good deal.
It's a good deal in a vacuum, which is how you're evaluating it.

But Swisher isn't expected to fill Betemit's role (guy who hardly plays), he's expected to fill Giambi's role (guy with a 128 OPS+). That's reachable, but it's doubtful he'll surpass that, and while it's a good *trade*, it's not necessarily an improvement for the team.

If you start from the assumption that they could have signed Teixeira if they had pursued him, then the Swisher trade (which apparently indicates they won't be pursuing Teixeira), represents a potential, and likely, loss of value (on-field, not dollar value).

Frankly, this team needs to add a bat -- if they go into 2009 with the roster they have, they'll need Posada and Cano to both bounce back just to avoid having a below-average lineup. There is very little chance that they'll have a *great* lineup in 2009, even if almost everything goes right.
   17. Best Regards, Larry M. Posted: November 18, 2008 at 12:36 AM (#3011171)
Jones was "indisputably worse" than Swisher? How do you figure?
Well, he was indisputably a worse hitter. But I don't see the Orioles starting Jones at first base.
   18. TVerik Posted: November 18, 2008 at 12:37 AM (#3011172)
But Swisher isn't expected to fill Betemit's role (guy who hardly plays), he's expected to fill Giambi's role (guy with a 128 OPS+). That's reachable, but it's doubtful he'll surpass that, and while it's a good *trade*, it's not necessarily an improvement for the team.


I'll be really shocked if the Swisher acquisition leads the team to consider 1b "locked down". He hit .220 last year.
   19. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: November 18, 2008 at 12:45 AM (#3011178)
Well, he was indisputably a worse hitter. But I don't see the Orioles starting Jones at first base.

Right. He was indisputably worse only if you ignore position and defense.
   20. Designated Sitter (GGC) Posted: November 18, 2008 at 12:54 AM (#3011189)
Holy ####! Freddy Sanchez fell off a cliff this year. Yet he only scored two less runs than in 2007.
   21. RollingWave Posted: November 18, 2008 at 03:06 AM (#3011264)
What's more ironic is that the bar right on top of the article is "daily intel" (then again, they have Colbert as their cover man, maybe we're all missing the boat here and this is infact a really tough to understand joke artilce)

Anyway though, as other's have pointed out, if they make this move with the hope that Swisher is the everyday 1B in 09, then that's probably bad. if their plan is to use him in a OF corner and back up 1B just in case they miss out on Teix, then it's good.

I think Larry your underestimating the Yankee lineup a bit though, they were right in the middle of the pack in 08, a the loss of Posada was a drop off of gigantic porportion. (SG estimate it to be about 50 runs! which would have shot up the team to 3rd in the AL) given the normal projection the Yanks look like their probably something like 3-5 in the AL right now. so it's above average. but still. their risk of something going wrong is pretty high.
   22. Best Regards, Larry M. Posted: November 18, 2008 at 03:50 AM (#3011289)
I think Larry your underestimating the Yankee lineup a bit though, they were right in the middle of the pack in 08, a the loss of Posada was a drop off of gigantic porportion. (SG estimate it to be about 50 runs! which would have shot up the team to 3rd in the AL) given the normal projection the Yanks look like their probably something like 3-5 in the AL right now. so it's above average. but still. their risk of something going wrong is pretty high.


I expect Swisher and Cano to bounce back. I expect Posada to not be as good as he used to be. I expect A-Rod to be about the same as last season (though he apparently is on a odd-year-awesome even-year-good cycle lately...).

I expect Damon, Nady and Jeter to drop off. I don't expect them to get impressive production out of the DH/3rd outfielder. I think it's more likely they'll be an average offense than a top-3 offense.
   23. Walt Davis Posted: November 18, 2008 at 04:25 AM (#3011305)
I'll be really shocked if the Swisher acquisition leads the team to consider 1b "locked down". He hit .220 last year.

I think the Yanks went into this season thinking "we've got a hole at 1B, a hole in CF, and half-a-hole in RF." Swisher fills one of those and provides sufficient flexibility that they can choose later on which of them to fill with the next acquisition.

But I think it does signal that they won't be major players for Teixeira. I suspect their preference is to find a real CF. A Teixeira signing will push either Swisher or Damon to CF which I think they'd like to avoid.

Still a team with a lot of question marks (due to age and injury mostly). Granted, if even half those questions get answered yes, it could be an awesome offense. But those questions as I see them (not necessarily in priority order?):

1. Is Posada healthy and effective enough to play 120 games at C; if not, can he still hit enough to play 1B/DH on a fairly regular basis.

1A. Who plays C if Posada doesn't?

2. Will Matsui be healthy and productive enough to take at least 120 games at DH?

3. Will Cano bounce back?

4. Will Swisher bounce back?

5. Will Jeter bounce back?

6. Can we find enough talent to move Nady into a 400 PA 1B/LF/RF/DH super-sub role?

7. Is Swisher really an adequate CF?

8. Hey, how come nobody told me we've got holes in the rotation too?

The nice thing about the Swisher trade is they (potentially) filled a hole for a few years without giving up anything they really wanted or needed. When you've got that many holes/questions, that's a nice thing to pull off.
   24. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: November 18, 2008 at 05:43 AM (#3011321)
The money difference between the players is probably meaningless in NYC.

Except if it keeps them from signing Carlos Beltran and Mark Teixeira
   25. Flynn Posted: November 18, 2008 at 02:54 PM (#3011409)
Except if it keeps them from signing Carlos Beltran and Mark Teixeira

I thought that was due to self-imposed austerity more than anything. They're going to have a cash cow in this new park, even in this economy.
   26. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 18, 2008 at 03:44 PM (#3011436)
Still a team with a lot of question marks (due to age and injury mostly). Granted, if even half those questions get answered yes, it could be an awesome offense.


That never happens, though. Bill James once pointed out in an Abstract that you it's better to be a team that has mostly positive questions rather than a team that has mostly negative questions - with positive questions being things like "Is Wade Davis ready to take over in the starting rotation?" while negative questions are things like Walt's list above.

-- MWE
   27. I am Ted F'ing Williams Posted: November 18, 2008 at 09:34 PM (#3011809)
Perhaps Swish hit like Darrin Erstad because the White Sox used him like Darrin Erstad. The month he played 1B he hit like Nick Swisher.

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