I still have to remind myself sometimes that I’m still only 26

That seems like an odd thing to say. Maybe other people need to remind themselves of that. But you need to remind yourself of your age?

Small sample size to Francoeur: Oh, it's on now, #####

What a stupid headline. SSS aside, why wouldn't people who've spent years complaining that player x needs to learn to take a walk like player x better if he finally starts taking walks?

I have 100% confidence that Francoeur will suck this year.

It's impossible to take such a small sample as proof of anything. But I never saw him exercise this kind of patience even within a single game. So it is encouraging.

That seems like an odd thing to say. Maybe other people need to remind themselves of that. But you need to remind yourself of your age?

I can see where he's going with this... he has been in pro baseball for a long time. He may feel old and over the hill, but he's still only 26 and has plenty of time to turn it around (although it probably doesn't feel like that all the time). I think that's where he was going with this.

I can see where he's going with this... he has been in pro baseball for a long time. He may feel old and over the hill, but he's still only 26 and has plenty of time to turn it around (although it probably doesn't feel like that all the time). I think that's where he was going with this.

It's also important to recognize that, based on the excerpt (which is all I have access to) at least, Francoeur is doing the exact opposite of saying "How ya like me now."

I have said it before and will probably say it again, but I think media coverage of Jeff Francoeur is a little creepy. I mean, I get that Francoeur is nice to media people and accessible and everything, but for example, the AJC still seems to cover him some--even though he is on the Mets. And the whole thing seems a little over-the-top.

Small sample size to Francoeur: Oh, it's on now, #####

What, you don't think he'll put up a 251 OPS+ over the entire season? Oh, ye of little faith...

The fact that Francouer is only 36 walks away from tying his career high makes me think the "how you like them apples, stat nurds" rhetoric should be shelved for a little while.

If Francoeur ends up having the breakout season people have been predicting out of him for years, his success will *still* vindicate statheads.

Good for him, though, if he can keep it going. The Mets need some kind of good break for once.

As a Braves fan, I say thank goodness for Jason Heyward. He's a local guy who's a genuine big-time prospect, unlike Francoeur, so maybe he'll end any local coverage here in Atlanta about the French one.

SSS, certainly, but Francouer has been a good player since the trade. He had a 120 OPS+ last season, so it's more than just a handful of games.

Maybe playing in his hometown was too much, too soon. If he wasnt the overhyped Francoeur, we'd prolly give him more credit.

#11 I sort of agree. The exception would be if he breaks through as a Berra/Vlad Guerrero type of player.

Jeff, good luck in NYC. I will enjoy cheering against you while wearing my brand spankin' new #22 jersey.

As a Braves fan, I say thank goodness for Jason Heyward. He's a local guy who's a genuine big-time prospect, unlike Francoeur, so maybe he'll end any local coverage here in Atlanta about the French one.

If Francoeur continues to play well, I guarantee the AJC will run a bunch of columns about how great the Braves outfield would look if he and Heyward were both there.

What does this story have to do with Kool Moe Dee again?

Of course, probably 3/4 of the internet hate has nothing to do with him as a player. 3/8ths is the obnoxious media Golden Boy coverage and 3/8ths is claiming to write a blog that seems like it's been ghostwritten by a pr guy as a thinly veiled Delta ad.

Statheads tend to get annoyed with anyone who gets Golden Boy coverage. If Jeter had played in Milwaukee and wasn't the media darling sensation, he'd be an underrated shortstop who plays smart baseball, has a lot of value from OBP, and plays a harder position than he should (well, this was before his last 2 years of adequacy) but is adequate enough to have a lot of positional value. We'd be drooling over the guy rather than simply respecting that he's a great player.

I watch, and I agree with Howard. His patience at the plate is *different*. Sometimes in RBI situations, he lapses, but truthfully, he *looks* different.

I don't know if it will be maintained. No HOF CF and no 1B means the season is going to be rough. Truth be told, he *is* only 26. PLayers that get traded (like any profession) can take that jolt as a wakeup call. So, maybe.

I think people are forgetting just what started the stathead anti-Francouer movement: the claims made VERY LOUDLY by the Braves in 2006 and 2007 that Frenchy was a very valuable offensive ballplayer, because he had over 100 RBIs each year.

I have said it before and will probably say it again, but I think media coverage of Jeff Francoeur is a little creepy. I mean, I get that Francoeur is nice to media people and accessible and everything, but for example, the AJC still seems to cover him some--even though he is on the Mets. And the whole thing seems a little over-the-top.

Only thing I can think of is he might have some sort of intense personal charisma, a kind of Bill Clinton thing, that gives him the power to cloud the minds of men. Except it apparently doesn't work on pitchers.

I think people are forgetting just what started the stathead anti-Francouer movement: the claims made VERY LOUDLY by the Braves in 2006 and 2007 that Frenchy was a very valuable offensive ballplayer, because he had over 100 RBIs each year.

Right - the claim wasn't that Francoeur was a talented athlete who could become a good baseball player, it was that Francoeur was already a good baseball player, and pointing out his sub-par OBP was just nerdery from people who don't understand the game. Francoeur didn't need to draw walks - he was great as he was.

Now, of course, that he's showing greater patience, that's being held up as a vindication of the anti-stat crowd somehow.

Fangraphs Believes!

I want to get really excited about the Francoeur's newfound patience but I aslo remember April 2005 when Victor Diaz walked 15 times in 81 plate appearances and never came close to doing anything like that again.

Francoeur has a 134 OPS+ as a Met in 84 games. That's a better stretch of baseball than he ever did for the Braves (.324/.357/.536). I don't know how good he but I know he's a better hitter than he showed in Atlanta in 2008-2009. I think the pressure of being the Golden Boy, the heir apparent to Jones, was too much for him.

Now, of course, that he's showing greater patience, that's being held up as a vindication of the anti-stat crowd somehow.

There's definitely a faction of the Moneyballers who thought/think that Frenchy would never be a good major leaguer.

I watch, and I agree with Howard. His patience at the plate is *different*. Sometimes in RBI situations, he lapses, but truthfully, he *looks* different. I don't know if it will be maintained. No HOF CF and no 1B means the season is going to be rough. Truth be told, he *is* only 26. PLayers that get traded (like any profession) can take that jolt as a wakeup call. So, maybe.

My optimism is like an infectious, festering virus! My Master Plan is going exactly according to my Master Plan!

My optimism is like an infectious, festering virus! My Master Plan is going exactly according to my Master Plan!

And to think: it all started with Benji...

I think the big test for Frenchy will be how he reacts when he goes into his first mini-slump (which is inevitable, no matter how good a hitter you are). Will he revert to his hacking ways or will he maintain the discipline he's been showing?

I think Frenchy will have a good year, if only because that will cause the Mets to sign him to a long term deal where he'll go back to hitting like usual.

I think the big test for Frenchy will be how he reacts when he goes into his first mini-slump (which is inevitable, no matter how good a hitter you are). Will he revert to his hacking ways or will he maintain the discipline he's been showing?

This is true, and I guess I'm curious how long he has to do it for people to be convinced here in general. 200 AB? 600 AB? I guess for me it would be a full season, but that's pretty arbitrary.

Whatever happens with Frenchy I just hope it stays entertaining. He's my MLB guilty pleasure. I hope he starts guest starring on sit-coms and opens a chain of ice cream parlors and runs for mayor of Carmel, California and learns the knuckleball.

Francoeur to Moneyball gurus: "I'm behind Newsday's paywall! How ya like me now?"

There's definitely a faction of the Moneyballers who thought/think that Frenchy would never be a good major leaguer.

Actually, it was CBW's cousin who convinced me that Frenchy was unlikely to ever be more than adequate. However, it's certainly possible that being traded woke Jeff up. A lot of Braves fans wanted to see him sent to AAA, in hopes that being sent down would convince him that he needed to change his approach.

I hope he starts guest starring on sit-coms and opens a chain of ice cream parlors and runs for mayor of Carmel, California and learns the knuckleball.

I'm hoping he starts a business with Lenny Dykstra.

Statheads tend to get annoyed with anyone who gets Golden Boy coverage. If Jeter had played in Milwaukee and wasn't the media darling sensation, he'd be an underrated shortstop who plays smart baseball, has a lot of value from OBP, and plays a harder position than he should (well, this was before his last 2 years of adequacy) but is adequate enough to have a lot of positional value. We'd be drooling over the guy rather than simply respecting that he's a great player.

It's really hard to say that "Jeter is a clear HOF" isn't giving the guy enough credit. I mean, are there any statheads out there giving him less than that?

I think that's the Jeter problem. It's just not good enough for people to say he's an easy HOF player. We have to pretend that he's without flaws.

Did I miss like a third of the season? Last time I looked, we're 9 games in. Anyone can do anything for 9 games. I hope the transformation is real, but it's 9 games.

Jerry's really planning to move Reyes down in the order, eh? This is a really, really bad idea.

[34] I think you've missed Dan's point. He didn't say anything that even implies that statheads don't give Jeter enough credit. He's talking about market size and media adulation and the way all of that (understandably) turns people off. And I think it absolutely is fair to say that a negative reaction to those things does tend to pollute discussions of value (and not just in this specific case). Forget playing in Milwaukee, the stathead response to Jeter's accomplishments would be completely different if he was a funny-looking guy who married his high school sweetheart instead of being a dreamboat who boinks super-models.

#35, We're not close to Voros' Law territory. You need look no further than the immortal Paul Bako's 2008. .310/.388/.507 in more or less full time play in April. And .348/.500/.478 in 30 PAs after the end of August.

There's definitely a faction of the Moneyballers who thought/think that Frenchy would never be a good major leaguer.

What strikes me about Francoeur is that his power seems to be back. As much as his allergic reaction to the base on balls hurt him the last couple of years the fact that he has been a "power hitter" with a below average ISO since 2006 was what killed him. It's one thing to have a .300 OBP but if you are going to hit 25-30 home runs while doing it there is some value there. To do it with 13 home runs in 650 PA and no great speed or defense you have a pretty poor player.

So far he is hitting for power and while obviously the .447 ISO isn't going to continue if he can be a legitimate >.180 ISO guy he'll be decent. Without watching I would guess the selectivity is part of this boost as it is kind of tough to hit a pitch at your shoetops 420 feet.

Looking at pitch data for Francoeur we can see some changes

His strike percentage is 59%, previous low was 66%
His balls in play percentage is 39%, previous high was 36%
His percent of pitches swung at is 48%, previous low was 55%

So Francoeur is looking at seeing few strikes and swinging at fewer pitches. So, either he is seeing fewer strikes thrown to him or he is swinging at fewer balls outside the zone. The first case is a fluke of small sample size. The second is a change in approach.

What strikes me about Francoeur is that his power seems to be back. As much as his allergic reaction to the base on balls hurt him the last couple of years the fact that he has been a "power hitter" with a below average ISO since 2006 was what killed him.

That is an interesting development. His last few seasons in Atlanta he just had no pop when he hit the ball. Even balls he hit squarely didn't really go anywhere. We used to say it looked like he had a trick bat or something.

He's constantly changing his body type (more/less weight, more/less muscle) it seems like he's found a combination that works for him.

Looking at pitch data for Francoeur we can see some changes

His strike percentage is 59%, previous low was 66%
His balls in play percentage is 39%, previous high was 36%
His percent of pitches swung at is 48%, previous low was 55%

So Francoeur is looking at seeing few strikes and swinging at fewer pitches. So, either he is seeing fewer strikes thrown to him or he is swinging at fewer balls outside the zone. The first case is a fluke of small sample size. The second is a change in approach.

Of course he's seeing more pitches out of the zone and swinging at fewer of them - he took more walks! We already knew he took more walks. The only way to take more walks is to take more balls. Since we already knew that happened, restating it in a half-dozen ways isn't evidence.

Of course he's seeing more pitches out of the zone and swinging at fewer of them - he took more walks! We already knew he took more walks. The only way to take more walks is to take more balls. Since we already knew that happened, restating it in a half-dozen ways isn't evidence.

He's also swinging at fewer strikes(81% previous low 83%), looking at more strikes(19% previous high of 17%) and putting a higher percentage of strikes in play(39% previous high 36%). So his approach on strikes looks different as well as the ball percentage.

So Francoeur is looking at seeing few strikes and swinging at fewer pitches. So, either he is seeing fewer strikes thrown to him or he is swinging at fewer balls outside the zone. The first case is a fluke of small sample size. The second is a change in approach.

According to Fangraphs he's swinging at 32.8% of pitches out of he zone compared to a 36.3 career. Major League average is around 25%.
Even more impressive he's only swinging at 68% in the zone, compared to over 80% career.

According to this very interesting article
http://web.archive.org/web/20080102094412/http://mvn.com/mlb-stats/2007/11/14/525600-minutes-how-do-you-measure-a-player-in-a-year/
swing % and contact % stabilize around 40 at bats.

So, maybe Francoeur is a different hitter. His plate recognition doesn't seem much improved, he's just swinging less period. Pitchers know his reputation and are throwing him less strikes, so he's walking more.

Delta means change.

Francouer's an interesting case but, really, we'll have the beginning of a handle on his hitting around the beginning of June, and it'll take a full season to have a real sense of any changes he may have made. I think it was on this site that someone posted links to Francouer promising, at the beginning of every ####ing season, to be more selective at the plate.

SSS, certainly, but Francouer has been a good player since the trade. He had a 120 OPS+ last season, so it's more than just a handful of games.

As long as we remember he actually had an OPS+ of 93 last season.

So, maybe Francoeur is a different hitter. His plate recognition doesn't seem much improved, he's just swinging less period. Pitchers know his reputation and are throwing him less strikes, so he's walking more.

Assuming I buy into the last two sentences, the first sentence doesn't necesarily follow. If pitchers are throwing him fewer strikes and Francouer is not swinging at the same pitches he wasn't swinging at in 2008, that doesn't mean he's a different hitter. It means he's the same hitter who is seeing fewer strikes and therefore swinging less. I suspect he's simply adopting a rather mechanistic "swing a little less often" approach. I doubt at the ripe old age of 26 his pitch recognition skills are improving, but rather he's just deciding in advance to swing less. But, perhaps he's learning "zoning". Perhaps that's what he needs to master in order to become an average MLer. Maybe HoJo isn't teaching him broadly to be more selective, which would likely be futile, but instead teaching him to just swing at the first pitch only if it's in, say, the lower, outside quarter of the strike zone. Maybe HoJo suggested Francouer take the same approach on 1 and 0, 2 and 0, and 2 and 1. I don't think it's out of the question that Frenchy could learn to do that while in his prime, though it will take more than nine games to get enough data on those counts to spot a trend.

The unfortunate thing for the Mets, with their bloated payroll commitments for the next couple of years, is that if Francouer puts up ghost's 120 OPS+ all season with slightly below to below average defense, the Mets will sign him for something close to market value. If Francouer continues to put up a 120 OPS+ for the duration of the 3/20 (or whatever) contract, then the Mets will be getting around market value at a stage when they desperately need bargains. Typical Mets: even if they win, they tie, almost.

120 with the Mets after the trade.

He'll never be great, but he could be good for the next 4-5 years. Or he could go revert back to the Atlanta days.

He'll never be great, but he could be good for the next 4-5 years. Or he could go revert back to the Atlanta days.

I think he can be average, if he puts it all together. That's the sorry part of this: Mets fans aren't hoping that a young rookie will finally put it all together and become the next sensational CFer, they're hoping that the guy they're likely to be stuck with for the next however many years is going to finally put it all together to become... an average RFer.

Settle in, Mets fans. Not Jose Reyes, not David Wright, not Carlos Beltran, not Johan Santana, but rather Jeff Francouer is now the face of your franchise.

Statheads tend to get annoyed with anyone who gets Golden Boy coverage. If Jeter had played in Milwaukee and wasn't the media darling sensation, he'd be an underrated shortstop who plays smart baseball, has a lot of value from OBP, and plays a harder position than he should (well, this was before his last 2 years of adequacy) but is adequate enough to have a lot of positional value. We'd be drooling over the guy rather than simply respecting that he's a great player.

Yes, it's not really that complicated. We have no reason to "hate" Francoeur beyond the AJC fellatio.

Yes, it's not really that complicated. We have no reason to "hate" Francoeur beyond the AJC fellatio.

Sounds right. Hate the hype, love the hypee.

Oh, and if Francouer has a decent year, what do you think the FO will aim to get when it trades Martinez?

Yes, it's not really that complicated. We have no reason to "hate" Francoeur beyond the AJC fellatio.

I don't think "hate" is the right word, since that has a more personal meaning than I intend, but what if you watched him suck balls for your team for years?

No matter what happens with the Mets, OBC is going to find a way to spin it negatively. Francoeur playing well IS a good thing for the Mets.

No matter what happens with the Mets, OBC is going to find a way to spin it negatively. Francoeur playing well IS a good thing for the Mets.

Do stop whining at me. It's become your hobby, sadly. And do stop lying about the totality of my posts here. Take issue with substance, and stop the ongoing, lame, ad hominem attacks. Note that my post had nothing to do with you but, yet again, you take the trouble to go after me.

Do stop whining at me. It's become your hobby, sadly. And do stop lying about the totality of my posts here. Take issue with substance, and stop the ongoing, lame, ad hominem attacks. Note that my post had nothing to do with you but, yet again, you take the trouble to go after me.

Have you noticed that you seem to have issues with pretty much everyone that you interact with around here? Lassus has never had an issue with anyone here and you annoyed even him. Maybe, you might be the problem.

When is paying market value for a position player a problem for a team like the Mets, btw? Criticizing the Mets for things that haven't yet done annoys me. This is like the Mets are going to sign Molina for three years talk. The Mets do enough stupid things that we don't need to make crap up.

And More importantly, the Mets have had an incredibly difficult time finding average players at the corner outfield position. The last corner outfielder who was maverage or better and played more than 135 games was in 2005 when Cliff Floyd did it.

Francoeur sometimes (always?) has country music playing as he steps to the plate.

Toby Keith has a song called "How Do You Like Me Now?"

So the headline writer may be a country music fan, although the stretch to be witty created more confusion than it was worth.

Newsday is now owned by Cablevision, the cable company that has done such a fine job with the Rangers and especially the Knicks in recent years. If you're a customer (like me), the Newsday site is free.
They started out charging $20 a month, I think, if you weren't a Cablevision customer (they have monopoly status on Long Island, and to a lesser extent so does Newsday).
So if you're out there and thinking of switching to satellite but like to read newsday.com, there's a complicating factor.

Have you noticed that you seem to have issues with pretty much everyone that you interact with around here? Lassus has never had an issue with anyone here and you annoyed even him. Maybe, you might be the problem.

You're lying again, sadly. I've had ongoing issues with only three posters here, all essentially clones of each other--guys who just want to make happy noises about the team, and rarely engage in stat-based discussion or argument. Amazing that the noise with Freeball ended when he stopped bothering me, isn't it? Why don't you follow suit? I mean, really. It's hilarous, in a pitiful way, that you go after me in this thread, launch the first salvo, then blame me for the problem. If you prefer simply engaging opinions without much in the way of facts, why don't you simply find like-minded people to do that with?

When is paying market value for a position player a problem for a team like the Mets, btw?

It's so bloody simple I'm getting tired of repeating it to you. The Mets already owe the equivalent of this year's payroll to ten players next year. TEN. Got it? Adding an eleventh at full price, when the team will be lucky to get full price value from that player, is a fool's errand. I really don't see why you're having trouble with this, except that you're clearly interested in merely gainsaying my points, rather than actually engaging them.

Criticizing the Mets for things that haven't yet done annoys me. This is like the Mets are going to sign Molina for three years talk. The Mets do enough stupid things that we don't need to make crap up.

Frankly, why would I give a #### about what annoys you? The Mets have already annointed Francouer the focus of the clubhouse. It's reasonable (and revolting) to project that the Mets will shortly sign him long term. And, no, it's nothing like the Mets are going to sign Molina for three years talk. If you're going to pull analogies out of your ass, at least try to make them interesting.

And More importantly, the Mets have had an incredibly difficult time finding average players at the corner outfield position. The last corner outfielder who was maverage or better and played more than 135 games was in 2005 when Cliff Floyd did it.

So the answer to FO incompetence is Jeff F. Francouer? Your analytical skills are sadly lacking, or you're smoking something green. It's startling to me that you actually believe you just made a point.

If someone's tone or way of discussing an issue bothers a healthy person, that person simply turns and engages someone more like-minded or of more interest to them. It makes more sense that if we spar and you genuinely find me offensive and beyond the pale that you'd ignore me. Why don't you do that?

There are more than three people who have issues with you. We are the only three people who have bothered to engage you about them. Well, I'm done. At the end of the season, we can settle our bet. That will be it for our future communication. I am sure both of us will find our experience here more pleasant.

Francoeur sometimes (always?) has country music playing as he steps to the plate.

Ah. This explains much.

There are more than three people who have issues with you. We are the only three people who have bothered to engage you about them. Well, I'm done. At the end of the season, we can settle our bet. That will be it for our future communication. I am sure both of us will find our experience here more pleasant.

If by "issues" you mean had a vigorous argument that sometime ended in total disagreement well, Gee Whiz, Russlan, that's what happens sometimes with grownups. I'm unaware, however, of anything that got truly personal with any other than the three of you. It's too bad you chose to go out ugly, and dishonestly, but I'm not surprised. At any rate, this is long overdue. Best of luck to you, by the way.

Back in January, a big deal was made of the fact that Newsday had only gotten 35 people to subscribe to the site.

http://www.observer.com/2010/media/after-three-months-only-35-subscriptions-newsdays-web-site

Of course, the Cablevision tie-in is where their revenue is.

I wonder if they're doing any better...

Hehehe.

Beginning with the 20-inning marathon against St. Louis, Frenchy is hitting, in 129 PAs, 137/186/214/400.
I mean, damn.

You just wait...when he's a coach and driver's ed teacher back in Whereverthe####hesfrom, Georgia, he'll tell his players about his time in the league and how he confounded the math nerds. He'll then tell them that if they want to go beat up the math nerds, he'll look the other way.

Beginning with the 20-inning marathon against St. Louis, Frenchy is hitting, in 129 PAs, 137/186/214/400.

Aha! I knew it had to be Tony LaRussa's fault somehow!

I agree with #61, but prefer a Nelson Mutz HA HA.