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Tuesday, February 27, 2018

Let’s hope this is not the last year of Clayton Kershaw in a Dodgers uniform

How will his back hold up this season?

Jim Furtado Posted: February 27, 2018 at 06:51 AM | 24 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: clayton kershaw, dodgers

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   1. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: February 27, 2018 at 12:33 PM (#5631055)
True or False:
Kershaw will never win another Cy Young.
   2. DCA Posted: February 27, 2018 at 01:10 PM (#5631079)
False. On a per-inning basis he's still the best SP in the NL. He's probably 50/50 to win it any season he makes 30 starts.
   3. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 27, 2018 at 01:18 PM (#5631083)
False. On a per-inning basis he's still the best SP in the NL. He's probably 50/50 to win it any season he makes 30 starts.

The issue is 1) he appears to be less and less capable physically of making 30 starts, and 2) his team seems disinclined to have anyone make 30 starts.
   4. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: February 27, 2018 at 01:38 PM (#5631096)
he appears to be less and less capable physically of making 30 starts

Or dummies appear more and more capable of seeing patterns in the clouds.
   5. Rusty Priske Posted: February 27, 2018 at 01:38 PM (#5631097)
It is likely true, just because those are really hard to win.

He would still be the first pitcher I would take in an MLB-wide draft.
   6. Booey Posted: February 27, 2018 at 01:39 PM (#5631098)
True or False: Kershaw will never win another Cy Young.

True. Pedro seemed like a lock to win more CYA's after 2000 too and never did. Durability is crucial.
   7. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 27, 2018 at 01:47 PM (#5631107)

Or dummies appear more and more capable of seeing patterns in the clouds.


He's missed significant periods of time the last two seasons. If that's not a red flag for a pitcher who already has 2000 IP on his arm at age 30, I'm not sure what is. He also allowed a career record number of HRs (23 vs. previous high of 16) in only 175 IP.
   8. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: February 27, 2018 at 01:57 PM (#5631118)
If that's not a red flag for a pitcher who already has 2000 IP on his arm at age 30, I'm not sure what is.

That much was obvious.
   9. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 27, 2018 at 02:08 PM (#5631124)
That much was obvious.

I think it's pretty funny that the guy betting against pitcher injury is insulting my intelligence.
   10. Batman Posted: February 27, 2018 at 02:30 PM (#5631136)
By the end of 2018, Kershaw will be older than Koufax was when he threw his last pitch.
   11. vortex of dissipation Posted: February 27, 2018 at 02:35 PM (#5631140)
He's missed significant periods of time the last two seasons. If that's not a red flag for a pitcher who already has 2000 IP on his arm at age 30, I'm not sure what is. He also allowed a career record number of HRs (23 vs. previous high of 16) in only 175 IP.


The increase in home runs in really noticeable on his Strat-O-Matic card for the 2017 season. His cards have been fantastic for the last few seasons, but this one looks human.
   12. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: February 27, 2018 at 02:36 PM (#5631142)
He also allowed a career record number of HRs (23 vs. previous high of 16) in only 175 IP.

How much of that was the uptick in homers this year?
   13. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 27, 2018 at 02:41 PM (#5631148)
How much of that was the uptick in homers this year?

Hrs have been increasing for a while now, but Kershaw stayed between 0.4 and 0.6 HR/9 from 2009-16. Then last year it went from 0.5 to 1.2. That's a lot more than league wide HR rates went up.
   14. TDF, trained monkey Posted: February 27, 2018 at 02:54 PM (#5631160)
He also allowed a career record number of HRs (23 vs. previous high of 16) in only 175 IP.
Of course, league-wide HR rates are also higher than any time in his career.

Regardless - you're trying to construct an argument against a guy winning the CYA who just last season was 2nd in award voting. Other than HR rate, all of his other stats are right in line (or better) than his career norms.
   15. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: February 27, 2018 at 03:59 PM (#5631209)
Other than HR rate, all of his other stats are right in line (or better) than his career norms.


This is true. His stuff is still great.
However you would need to consider if the injury time eventually effects how good his stuff is even when he comes back healthy.

I would think(and I'm too lazy to do any research at all so have at it primer!) that the more time you spend injured that eventually this must effect the overall quality of your pitching. I'm thinking that being injured may just effect the bite on that curve or remove a tick or two off the fastball or effect the movement in some minor way which may bring him down from superhuman.

Needless to say the health is the key. If he's healthy, he'll still be otherwordly until it eventually wears him down.
   16. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 27, 2018 at 04:16 PM (#5631218)
Regardless - you're trying to construct an argument against a guy winning the CYA who just last season was 2nd in award voting. Other than HR rate, all of his other stats are right in line (or better) than his career norms.

His HR rates more than doubled. That's a bad sign. His velocity is also tending downward.

Pitchers' health is the most fleeting of athletic talents. I'd bet against any pitcher winning the CY Young Award again. I'd guess no individual ever had more than a 50% chance of winning a future award.
   17. Blastin Posted: February 27, 2018 at 04:18 PM (#5631219)
I think Scherzer has a higher chance than Kershaw.
   18. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: February 27, 2018 at 06:41 PM (#5631332)
He also allowed a career record number of HRs (23 vs. previous high of 16) in only 175 IP.
Max Scherzer went from 14 to a career-high 31 homers between 2014 and 2016. I'm not gonna bet anything on that homer number. Kershaw's HR/IP spiked, but that doesn't mean that's his new new level; we don't know if it is or not, so any claims of certainly are wildly premature. I think #15 is more on point. The Kershaw that came back after his injury last summer wasn't quite the same guy. The Kershaw we saw two days ago threw a 1-2-3 inning against the Mariners in his first outing and looked as good as ever.

   19. Walt Davis Posted: February 27, 2018 at 07:20 PM (#5631347)
You'd think it would be easy to get the age of CYA winners in the year they won it ...

oldest apparently is Clemens at 42 (also 38, 34 and 35). Dickey at 37, Halladay at 33, Colon 32, Glavine 32 and of course the Unit at 35-38 seem to be the old farts to have done it in the last 20 years. Not that it tells us anything about Kershaw but 12 times in 40 awards ain't rare.

Pitchers are funny and everything we're saying about Kershaw was being said about Clemens at about the same ages. He'd won 3 by age 28 and had another big season at 29. Then the innings dropped below 200 and the ERA+ was barely over 100 at 30, an outstanding rate season at 31 but it was the strike year (odd he got no votes), then a solid rate season but only 140 innings at 32 (slightly shortened season but not that shortened). This was all followed by incredibly good seasons at 34, 35, 41 and 42 ... and probably one CYA he didn't really deserve (it was the 20-3 record).
   20. jyjjy Posted: February 28, 2018 at 03:31 AM (#5631498)
I'd guess no individual ever had more than a 50% chance of winning a future award.

I'd definitely bet on Trout winning another MVP.
   21. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: February 28, 2018 at 06:05 AM (#5631504)

The issue is 1) he appears to be less and less capable physically of making 30 starts, and 2) his team seems disinclined to have anyone make 30 starts.

He won a CYA and MVP in a season where he only started 27 games, and finished #2 in the voting last year again with 27 starts. I agree that I probably wouldn't bet on any single pitcher to win another CYA*, but Kershaw is still about as likely as anyone.

* I remember a number of years ago, Rob Neyer writing of someone, "I have seen the future of the Cy Young Award, and his name is _____". It was either Kris Benson or Roy Oswalt. Oswalt of course had a HOVG career including a number of top-5 finishes, but even he never won the award. Benson got hurt after 2 seasons and was never the same afterwards.
   22. PreservedFish Posted: February 28, 2018 at 07:50 AM (#5631513)
Pitchers' health is the most fleeting of athletic talents.


How about elite female gymnastic ability? Sometimes it doesn't even survive puberty.
   23. Booey Posted: February 28, 2018 at 10:39 AM (#5631564)
I'd definitely bet on Trout winning another MVP.


I would too, but then again, I would've bet on Pedro winning another CYA after 2000. I would've bet on Griffey winning another MVP after 1997. I would've bet on Piazza and Cano winning an MVP at some point in their careers. I probably would have bet on Verlander and Felix winning another CYA. Even the bets that feel like "locks" seem to be wrong about half the time.
   24. Walt Davis Posted: March 01, 2018 at 05:46 PM (#5632609)
A lesson I thought everybody here would have learned by now -- it's always dangerous to bet on the fickle minds of BBWAA members. I mentioned Clemens 1994 in which he was 1st in ERA+, 2nd in ERA, 2nd in pitcher WAR, 2nd in Ks ... and didn't get a single CYA vote (5 guys did). They did actually manage to give the award to the WAR leader (Cone) but you'd think somebody would have given Clemens a measly 3rd place vote at least.

Knowing the BBWAA, Trout might lead the league in WAR 4 more times with no MVP then win the MVP at 36 in a dead cat bounce season with 47 HR, 120 RBI and leading the Angels to the all-important 4th WC play-in spot while Taryn Griffey is limited to the RoY despite leading the league with 9 WAR because her Mariners missed the playoffs.

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