Poor Timmy now has at least a share of the N.L. lead in losses, earned runs, and wild pitches.

He actually hasn't been horrendous at home, with an ERA of 3.99. On the road, 9.00! Yikes.

I feel like he's hurt. I don't get to see a lot of baseball so I might be really wrong. But the stats and the reports of declining velocity and an inability to locate suggest an injury.

He's either hurt, or losing all that weight was a bad move. He was already skinny to begin with, and now he looks like someone surviving on nothing but dope and bong water.

he looks like someone surviving on nothing but dope and bong water.

Is there something you're trying to imply? :-)

No one knows exactly what his problem is. If he's hurting, he's steadfastly refused to admit it.

His velocity isn't down from what it's been the past couple of years. But his control is in the toilet; he alternates from walking guys without getting anything close to leaving a fat one right down the middle of the plate.

Whatever it is, IMO it's past time for the Giants to admit that the "just keep sending him out there for every turn and he'll pitch his way through it" approach is not working. A 6.42 ERA in 18 starts is Exhibit A that it's time to turn to Plan B. I think they need to sit him out for at least a couple of turns, toss him a few innings of mop-up relief, but mostly just get him a breather and allow this cycle to break.

He might be done, of course, but I doubt it. I suspect this is the mid-career crisis that isn't unusual in hard-throwing starting pitchers at somewhere around the age of 30. Many work their way through it, emerging on the other side as a craftier, wiser veteran.

Looks like the poor guys has Steve Blass disease....

I also can't believe that 5'11" and 160 - 170 lbs is his best playing weight.

A diet of Petrale sole and sourdough bread should help Tim get back on track.

Tim became a Cunningham household favorite during the Giants 2010 plaoof/WS run; we root for him to recover completely and return to his dominant ways.

greinke had a phase like this to begin last season where after missing april due to a stupid basketball injury he got slapped around in may and june before going into lockdown mode the last 3 months. some of zack's stuff was babip related but a good number of hits were zack putting a 92 mph fastball in someone's wheelhouse and then everyone getting a crick in their neck watching the resulting bomb land 440 feet away

tim's situation is more severe since in my limited viewings i don't see the stuff quality like i saw with greinke. greinke was just making bad pitches. tim looks like he is making bad pitches and his stuff isn't impressing. that's an ugly combo against major league hitters. that's randy lerch territory.

tim looks like he is making bad pitches and his stuff isn't impressing. that's an ugly combo against major league hitters. that's randy lerch territory.

All true. He's making a lot of bad pitches. A 90 MPH fastball can be quite effective (as Lincecum has proved in the past) when it has movement and it paints a corner. It isn't effective at all when it's belt-high over the heart of the plate.

But Lincecum's K rate remains quite healthy. He still does have good stuff, it's just intermittent. Many times this year he's gotten into a good rhythm and just mowed them down for several innings in a row, only to then suddenly encounter an inning in which he falls apart and can't get anyone out.

that's an ugly combo against major league hitters. that's randy lerch territory.

Are you still bitter over the Randy Lerch / Dick Davis trade? I'd think you would be over it by now. :)

Looks like the poor guys has Steve Blass disease....

Oh, let's not just toss that phrase around. Lincecum's K/BB this year is 10:5, and his career mark is 10:3. Blass went from 5:3 to 3:9.

Oh, let's not just toss that phrase around.

Indeed. Bad as Lincecum's problems are this year, his affliction compared to Steve Blass Disease is a chest cold compared to lung cancer.

It probably wouldn't hurt the Giants to give him a day off or two when he's on the road, especially if the game time temperature is in like the mid to upper 90s. That seems to be when he has most of his trouble.

IO clearly over-reached on my Blass comment.
I apologize

His K/9 is great, and I am surprised how good he looks by K/PA as well.

My quick calculation from fangraphs is that his K/PA in 2008 was 28.5%, 2011 was a very healthy 24.4%, and this year is still up at 23.5%. According to this (reliable?) the MLB average is 18.6%.

steve

what you describe in your last sentence is dave bush chapter and verse and that's not meant as a compliment

Many times this year he's gotten into a good rhythm and just mowed them down for several innings in a row, only to then suddenly encounter an inning in which he falls apart and can't get anyone out.

I don't think this necessarily means anything. Chris Capuano looked like this for the Mets last year (not to the same extent as Lincecum of course). Probably something like the opposite is happening for him this year - all of the hard hits are beautifully scattered. His peripherals are almost identical, and his ERA+ is up 50 points.

what you describe in your last sentence is dave bush chapter and verse and that's not meant as a compliment

Well, the One Bad Inning Syndrome is a nasty condition. Clearly one thing it indicates is a greater-than-normal disparity in effectiveness when pitching from the stretch instead of the windup. But it seems pretty obvious to me that there's a mental component to go along with the mechanics issue, a "here we go again" panic that throws gasoline on the flames instead of an "oh no you don't" killer instinct that minimizes damage.

My fault.

2011 fantasy draft

1. Carl Crawford
2. Joe Mauer

2012 fantasy draft

1. Adrian Gonzalez
2. Tim Lincecum (traded for Neftali Feliz)

I managed to ruin both Lincecum and Feliz's year.

One Bad Inning Syndrome

Updating my post from another thread on Lincecum:

2011:
Nobody on: .248/.326/.382 (.324 BABIP), 1 K per 4.06 PA, 1 BB per 10.11 PA
Runners on: .184/.270/.290 (.236 BABIP), 1 K per 4.13 PA, 1 BB per 10.97 PA

2012:
Nobody on: .250/.313/.441 (.336 BABIP), 1 K per 3.43 PA, 1 BB per 12.63 PA
Runners on: .293/.399/.476 (.341 BABIP), 1 K per 5.94 PA, 1 BB per 6.52 PA

Look at the K and BB rates. In 2011, he was basically the same guy whether pitching from the windup or the stretch, except for BABIP. In 2012, his numbers from the windup are similar to last year's, but he's suddenly become a completely different, and completely ineffective, pitcher from the stretch. I don't know if it's mechanical, psychological, or an injury (or some combination of those factors), but something's keeping him from pitching effectively with men on base.

Very interesting, but I fear the problem with those stats may be that the sample size with "nobody on" may be vanishingly small.

Very interesting, but I fear the problem with those stats may be that the sample size with "nobody on" may be vanishingly small.

Acknowledging that I may need to recalibrate my sarcasm meter ...

Anyone's in-season split stats have sample size issues. But the fact is that Lincecum so far in 2012, terrible though he's been, has faced 240 batters with the bases empty, and 202 with runners on.

It looks like your meter is working, you just have issues trusting it.

I've only seen about 2-3 Lincecum starts, but I really have to concur with the "Two Tims" theory.

A Marlins game in particular, I recall watching him pretty much breeze through 5 -- I think a Stanton bomb, but that was about it -- then suddenly in the 6th, the wheels just come off... a line single, ill-timed walk that wasn't really close, deep fly, HR...

It just sometimes seems like some sort of phantasm picks these inopportune moments to inhabit Lincecum's body. He'll be looking fine, getting some nice swing-and-misses, then boom -- all of the sudden, he can't throw a strike, hitters just sit on a "please be a strike" thigh-high fastball with no life.

It's hard for me to say he looks hurt -- unless it just all of the sudden hits the arm -- because every time I've seen him, he still shows plenty of flashes of prime Lincecum. Maybe it is his weight - with Casilla sucking, maybe they ought to think about having Lincecum close. I know Romo has been lights out, so it's not a big need - but maybe his body just can't keep it going for 6-7 IP anymore.

maybe they ought to think about having Lincecum close

I would be far more intrigued with this idea if it weren't for the fact that in many of his starts, the first inning has been that "one bad inning" (or at least the first bad inning until he decides to have another a few scoreless innings later). In 18 first innings in 2012, Lincecum's ERA is 9.50, allowing 21 hits, 13 walks, and 5 home runs.

I hate to be "that guy" and say something along conspiracy lines....but I think he's just been miserable in SF and it's all come to a head. A trade would benefit both sides, even if they are selling low at this point. He's going to walk anyways, it seems as if that's been obvious for a long time....

So ... Lincecum has been miserable in San Francisco (evidence?), and he's intentionally pitching terribly in order to force a trade.

Yeah, that's the ticket.

I figured my shooting-in-the-dark speculation/rambling might be misunderstood. I don't think he's trying to force anything. He is simply unhappy, causing a domino effect. It's not the city of SF he is unhappy with, it's the Giants/Ownership whatever. I make that assumption based on EVERY offseason: Tim tells the Giants he has no intention of signing long-term, unless it's an absurd length/dollar amount, etc.

I have no vested interest in anything and am only speculating. I don't intend to come off as saying "Timmy hates the city of SF and is pitching badly on purpose to force a trade"...more like "Huh, he's (or his agent) given them a little song-and-dance every offseason about an extension that leads me to believe he's going to be off the Giants the first chance he gets. His season started rocky, can't seem to get turned around and he's trying too hard out there: Much like a hitter in a slump. I wonder if any of that is wearing on the guy, if he has concerns about his future, if he's reflecting on whether he should have signed long-term, etc. I wonder if at this point, both sides wouldn't benefit from a change?"

Hope I articulated my thoughts better, to avoid confusion. Apologies.

I don't see why pitching poorly would be of any benefit for him though. A big thing about Lincecum is people doubt he can hold up, and sucking seems to just make people think that's true. He would be sabotaging his market value.

I do not think he is pitching poorly on purpose....

His season started rocky, can't seem to get turned around and he's trying too hard out there: Much like a hitter in a slump. I wonder if any of that is wearing on the guy, if he has concerns about his future, if he's reflecting on whether he should have signed long-term, etc. I wonder if at this point, both sides wouldn't benefit from a change?"

Well, I don't know, I follow the Giants pretty closely and I've never gotten any sort of a vibe that Lincecum is unhappy with the organization. All of us wish our employer would pay us more money, but the contract negotiations between Lincecum and the Giants haven't ever been reported as acrimonious in the least.

What organization is it that you think he would prefer to play for? The Mariners? If he isn't getting a long-term deal from the Giants, I really doubt he'd be getting one from Seattle.

In any case, his trade value right now has plummeted to something close to zero. Given his 2012 performance and his contract status (owed $18 million prorated for the rest of this year, and $22 million for next year), it's just about impossible to imagine anyone acquiring him for anything other than a token payment.

And also in any case, the Giants' decision to not offer Lincecum a long-term deal, but to do instead to Cain, is looking real, real good at this point.

Not sure about what team he wants to play for, really. Again, freely admitting to shooting in the dark. It does not seem as if there have been any public bad--blood ever, I just really got the impression he never intends to sign there long term. Again, freely admit to shooting in the dark. I just jumped in to speculate aloud on a slow day, I see in re-reading the entire thread that you seem to be a bit more "charged" about this particular topic.

Also, in any case, I live in Fresno, Ca. (Please, don't pity me!) I would venture a guess that, with you being a Giants fan, we read a lot of the same pieces. I just always got the impression that he never intended to stay long term....a lot of folks around here that talk baseball, especially at Grizzlies Stadium, get a similar impression. Does NOT mean it's true in any sense, it's just a thought. Articles like this one were all over in the Winter. Seems to me if he wanted to stay, it would've gotten done, no?

Edit: ALL of the articles give me the impression the Giants intended to get a deal done PRIOR to the Cain deal. My guess is that he refuted the deal, as reported. I am not sure why we would assume it was "the Giants' decision to not offer Lincecum a long-term deal, but to do instead to Cain" when locking up BOTH are mentioned in the same articles. It NEVER was an either/or. They wanted both.
;-)

In this article

http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/7/5/3137591/tim-lincecum-stats-splits-giants?ref=fangraphs

two things stand out. He's down a couple mph and he's trading sliders for changeups. Does it matter? I have no clue but there is some reason he's stopped throwing his slider - pain, control, effectiveness, random.

My sense regarding Lincecum is that he's fine with the Giants organization and playing in San Francisco, as far as it goes. His angle regarding contract negotiations seems to be that he's been playing his cards to be able to hit the free agent market as soon as he's eligible, still in his prime, and able to use that negotiating strength to sign with the Giants or whoever else offers him the best deal.

Looks as though that might have been a risk he'd have been better off not taking.

I am not sure why we would assume it was "the Giants' decision to not offer Lincecum a long-term deal, but to do instead to Cain" when locking up BOTH are mentioned in the same articles. It NEVER was an either/or. They wanted both.

What I understood was that they wanted both, but on their terms. They were willing to offer a longer extension to Cain than to Lincecum. Cain said yes to that offer, and Lincecum said no.

I am not sure why we would assume it was "the Giants' decision to not offer Lincecum a long-term deal, but to do instead to Cain" when locking up BOTH are mentioned in the same articles. It NEVER was an either/or. They wanted both.

What I understood was that they wanted both, but on their terms. They were willing to offer a longer extension to Cain than to Lincecum. Cain said yes to that offer, and Lincecum said no.

"

Point being the offer was indeed made, according to the media reports. However, they never made a deal. Giants made Lincecum an offer, no deal was made. I don't see how we assume "the Giants' decision to not offer Lincecum a long-term deal, but to do instead to Cain". They DID decide to offer. It was rejected.

Well, the offer that was accepted by Cain was through 2017, plus a team option for 2018. I could be wrong, but I don't recall seeing anything reported on a hard offer by the Giants to Lincecum that went out that far.

# 36: Not being argumentative, but WTF? That means nothing. You claimed they decided not to offer. They did. They got rejected. We can all speculate as to why, which is what I was doing in the first place. Facts remain simple: Giants offered (and more than once) to extend Lincecum. The articles in the winter suggested that was their intention (click the link or do your own search, they'll all provide the same results). The deal failed, for whatever reason. Saying that they didn't even make an offer was simply wrong. Knowing the offer(s) made got rejected, it opens the possibility that Lincecum never intended to stay long-term.

I don't think any of what I am saying is unreasonable in the least. Purely logical speculation, given the actual facts reported.

You claimed they decided not to offer. They did. They got rejected.

No, I don't think this is correct. My understanding is that they did not offer Lincecum the same length of extension they offered Cain. Every multi-year deal isn't equivalent to every other multi-year deal.

There's a huge difference between flatly stating "the Giants' decision to not offer Lincecum a long-term deal, but to do instead to Cain" " and "My understanding is that they did not offer Lincecum the same length of extension they offered Cain. Every multi-year deal isn't equivalent to every other multi-year deal."...

The first statement was false, on both fronts. There was never an "instead" at play. The decision was made to offer a deal.

The second is certainly more plausible, given that we KNOW there was at least one attempt to lock-up Lincecum long-term. However, they were very public about a desire to sign him long-term, according to many media sources. To insinuate otherwise seems either to be missing out on those articles entirely or to be simply denying what the media reported. I didn't mean to strike some emotional nerve with my speculation, but it's very on point and relevant given the actual reported facts, is it not? It seems more like Timmy didn't want the long-term deal and the Giants did.

Don't get me wrong, seems to be working out for the Giants anyways. If I were a Giants fan, I'd be ok that we locked up Bum and Cain and let Timmy go. I'd also want to see if we couldn't at least get something for Timmy at some point. Interesting to see as it all plays out now by the new rules if/when FA time comes. I'm sure that SOMEONE would beat a "qualifying offer" on a risk he regains some of his shine.

It seems more like Timmy didn't want the long-term deal and the Giants did.

Well, whatever. You seem to be a lot more concerned about this than me.

I don't read a whole lot into what gets reported in contract negotiations, because we have no way of knowing to what degree what each side says to the press is the truth or a negotiating ploy. No one but the parties themselves really knows what the hard offers and counteroffers seriously are.

Here's what we do know: in the 2011-2012 offseason, the Giants signed Cain to a six-year deal, plus a seventh as a club option with buyout. In the 2010-2011 offseason, the Giants signed Lincecum to a two-year deal. The Giants were willing to meet the demands Cain made to forego the first several years of his free agency. The weren't willing to meet the demands Lincecum made (if he was willing to consider it all, and it certainly might be that he wasn't) to forego even the first year of his free agency.

I think there is a meaningful difference between those situations. I apologize for wording it lazily.

If I were a Giants fan, I'd be ok that we locked up Bum and Cain and let Timmy go.

I'm flipping ecstatic.

Not at all, just simply wanted to discuss what I thought. I figured if we saw some common ground, I might get some input from an honest, knowledgeable fan on the situation. I get what you're saying, your comments made it appear as if you misunderstood me.

And no need for the apology, my lazy-wording started the misunderstanding. Again, I just wonder (and always have) just what is up with that situation. To some, it seemed as if he never wanted to stay. Right now, looks good for the Giants and not so much for him. I figure he IS banking on FA, leading to him over-magnifying his own struggles. Similar to a hitter in an extended slump. Perhaps, in his case, less would be more. Perhaps a simple change of scenery, a fresh start, kick-starts him back into the pitcher he was. I agree that Timmy gambled fully on big money, be it via FA or the Giants (this seems to be the only disagreement, really), and wonder if it's distracting him now.

I'm flipping ecstatic.

Yeesh. Ok then.

[14] According to this (reliable?) the MLB average is 18.6%.

2012 MLB Pitching SO% by team, sorted by SO%

             
Tm        SO%
NYY     22.2%
WSN     22.1%
DET     22.0%
MIL     22.0%
PHI     22.0%
LAD     21.3%
TBR     21.1%
CIN     20.9%
TEX     20.8%
NYM     20.6%
CHW     20.5%
ATL     20.1%
SDP     20.1%
SEA     20.1%
SFG     19.8%
LgAvg   19.6%
ARI     19.5%
PIT     19.2%
KCR     19.1%
BOS     19.0%
LAA     18.9%
STL     18.9%
COL     18.6%
BAL     18.4%
HOU     18.3%
TOR     18.2%
CHC     18.1%
MIA     17.8%
CLE     17.3%
OAK     17.3%
MIN     14.9%

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2012-ratio-pitching.shtml#teams_ratio_pitching::none

It seems to me like San Francisco is the perfect place for Timmy. It has some of the mildest summers in the country, and it's pretty lenient towards the guys who, shall we say, get profiled in High Times magazine.

I suppose he might like it even better in Amsterdam, but MLB hasn't expanded that far out yet.

But there is always the warm and wonderful beacon of hope.

I suppose he might like it even better in Amsterdam, but MLB hasn't expanded that far out yet.

If he keeps pitching this way, honkball may be in his future.