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Tuesday, June 03, 2014

Lindbergh: Which teams are hitting—and missing—in MLB draft?

Surprise, surprise: The St. Louis Cardinals have drafted more active major leaguers than any other team. Many of them are currently Cardinals, which helps explain the team’s winning ways: Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn, Trevor Rosenthal, Joe Kelly, Kevin Siegrist, Matt Carpenter, Allen Craig, Matt Adams, Jon Jay, Kolten Wong and others have never known another organization….

The Padres, Royals and Rangers rank right below St. Louis. The Padres, who haven’t made the playoffs since 2006, have minted the second-most active major leaguers, but some of those players have hurt more than they’ve helped (more on that in a moment). The Royals’ problem clearly hasn’t been graduating draftees to the majors; it’s been how little those homegrown prospects have progressed after their promotions. And while the Rangers have exported some of their star draftees, including Chris Davis and Ian Kinsler, they’ve compensated by being active on the international market, which isn’t reflected here.

Let’s turn our attention to the bottom end. The Rays, despite their well-deserved reputation for smarts, have amassed the third-fewest debuts, in part because they move their players up the ladder slowly, but also because they haven’t struck gold as often as they did when they routinely drafted in the first few picks.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 03, 2014 at 03:05 PM | 9 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: draft

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   1. Bote Man makes baseball fun again Posted: June 03, 2014 at 05:17 PM (#4718339)
But what about Pete Kozma??? You can't forget about Pete Kozma!
   2. Man o' Schwar Posted: June 03, 2014 at 05:32 PM (#4718352)
It's surprising to see the Cubs so high up on the # of players drafted making the majors metric. It's less surprised to see them near the bottom of the WARP metric. It seems like (knock wood) things might be turning around, but in terms of position player drafting they haven't done much in forever. They have yet to have a single player from any of the last 4 drafts (2010-2013) make the majors for so much as a cup of coffee. Before that (hitters who made the majors):

2009 - Brett Jackson and DJ LeMahieu
2008 - Ryan Flaherty, Josh Harrison, Tony Campana, Logan Watkins
2007 - Josh Vitters, Josh Donaldson, Darwin Barney, Brandon Guyer
2006 - Tyler Colvin, Steve Clevenger, Blake Parker
2005 - Tyler Graham
2004 - Eric Patterson, Sam Fuld, Russ Canzler
2003 - Jake Fox, Casey McGehee, Matt LaPorta, Landon Powell
2002 - Adam Greenberg, Micah Hoffpauir, Taylor Teagarden
2001 - Ryan Theriot, Brendan Harris, Geovany Soto, Khalil Greene, Jeff Larish, Matt Pagnozzi
2000 - Luis Montanez, Bobby Hill, Ryan Jorgensen, Jason Dubois, Buck Coats
1999 - Peter Zoccolillo, Ray Sadler

In 1998 you get Corey Patterson and Eric Hinske, which isn't much but which is Gehrig and Ruth compared to the rest of them.

With the exception of Josh Donaldson (who never played in Chicago) and Soto (who had 2 good years before falling apart), it's about the motliest crew you're going to find. A whole lot of OFs and middle infielders who put up replacement or sub-replacement careers. If you set the bar at 10 career WAR, you get Donaldson and Soto (you also pick up Adam Everett (1995), Doug Glanville (1991), and Rick Wilkins (1986)). If you go to 15 WAR, you have to go back to:

1987 - Jeff Cirillo (who the Cubs drafted as a pitcher and didn't sign)
1985 - Rafael Palmeiro and Mark Grace

So for the last 28 years of drafts (1986-2013), they've yet to draft a single position player who put up 15 WAR in the majors, and there have only been 5 with over 10 WAR.

It's going to be up to Bryant, Baez et al to see if that can change (no credit to the Cubs for Rizzo (drafted elsewhere) or Castro (FA signing))...
   3. salvomania Posted: June 03, 2014 at 05:56 PM (#4718360)
I did not know that Josh Donaldson used to be Cub property.

EDIT: Traded back in '08 in the Rich Harden deal.
   4. McCoy Posted: June 03, 2014 at 05:56 PM (#4718361)
Everett never signed with the Cubs.
   5. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 03, 2014 at 06:00 PM (#4718364)
Neither did LaPorta or Greene. I don't think teams get any kind of credit for late round flyers for HS or college players that don't sign.
   6. Man o' Schwar Posted: June 03, 2014 at 06:26 PM (#4718375)
I missed that in the description - apologies. You can scratch a few of those names off the list then, Major League-style.

My list of pathetic Cub successes in the draft grows a little shorter.
   7. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: June 03, 2014 at 06:47 PM (#4718390)
But what about Pete Kozma??? You can't forget about Pete Kozma!


#### Pete Kozma
   8. stevegamer Posted: June 04, 2014 at 04:45 AM (#4718536)
The point about the Phillies not having homegrown, high-ceiling talent is wrong. It's just old talent that is mostly past-prime: Hamels, Utley, Howard, Rollins.
   9. McCoy Posted: June 04, 2014 at 09:56 PM (#4719323)
It's going to be up to Bryant, Baez et al to see if that can change (no credit to the Cubs for Rizzo (drafted elsewhere) or Castro (FA signing))...

It's looking more and more like Bryant is going to be the Cub prospect who breaks the positional barren streak for the Cubs. The guy is on something like a 60 homer pace right now.

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