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1. andrewberg Posted: August 04, 2008 at 01:03 AM (#2888903)Psychologically: Like I said, he was obviously somewhat nervous, but kept his composure fantastically well, getting out of all three little jams he found himself in. He never seemed to be in trouble, and even when he was behind in the count he seemed very confident to throw any of his pitches. He worked very well with Mike Redmond, who played a large part in managing Liriano's peaks and valleys through the game through gestures, pitch calls, and conversations. Six shutout innings also must be good for his psyche: it's no complete game, but it was enough to put his team in an excellent position and didn't tax him so much that expectations will be unrealistic. Everyone knows that Minnesota fans are unwaveringly faithful to their heroes, so Liriano has a boatload of wiggle room here, but this start should make everyone feel a little better about his health, his effectiveness, the rotation as a whole, and the team's postseason chances. The symbolism of moving into first place for the first time since early may in his return start will not be lost on anyone.
Statistically: It won't take much in this category to make Liriano extremely valuable. He's replacing Livan Hernandez, who is probably just a shade below a replacement player for the year (-5.7 vorp, 0.6 SNLVAR) and substantially worse of late. If Liriano pitches 8 more games, about 35-40 IP with something like 8 k/9, 3 bb/9, 1 hr/9 and an era in the 3.00s, he could be worth 2 wins over what Livan was giving them. Realistically, that calculation makes plenty of sense. Off the top of my head, I would say that the Twins would go about 3-6, maybe 4-5 in 9 more starts by Livan. With Liriano, I think it will be more like 6-3, or maybe 5-4 as he has a hiccup or two in reacclimating himself. Of course I want to get caught up in the 2006 hysteria and expect them to go 8-1 in his starts and run away with the division, but the improvement here is real and I can appreciate that for what it's worth.
Finally, since the Twins stayed under payroll this year, I thoroughly hope they act in good faith with Liriano and pay him as if he achieved super 2 status. The million or two bucks it will cost them will go a long way in player and fan relations, and may save them money down the road when he is arb eligible.
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