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Monday, January 25, 2010

LoHud: Derek Jeter’s chances of breaking Pete Rose’s all-time hits record

That and Dinowalrus breaking Tennessee Ernie Ford’s chart run of Hymn’s 277 weeks…should happen around the same time! ISN’T THAT AMAZING, SUZYN!

Let’s assume Jeter plays 10 more seasons to give him the same amount as Rose. Let’s go a step further and assume two of those seasons will be plagued with injury (let’s be honest, he is getting older). In eight healthy seasons, Jeter would need to average 157 hits to reach 4,000. Should he be healthy every season, he would only need 125 per season.

This leads us to the final number to discuss — 4,256. Again, let’s assume Jeter has eight healthy seasons left. He would need to average 189 hits per season. Should he remain healthy for 10 more years, he would only need 151 per year. With a current average of 196 hits per season, it is statistically possible.

Despite all of the statistics, this argument unfortunately boils down to nothing more than speculation. I’ve learned over the past 14 seasons never to doubt or second guess Derek Jeter. When you do, he’s right there to prove you wrong. When people began to doubt his ability to be an above average defensive shortstop, he worked that much harder to stay sharp and get better. This has nothing to do with, “Is Jeter a better player than Rose?” Pete Rose, while he may have serious character flaws, was one incredible hitter. However, I believe that if Derek Jeter has the desire to continue playing baseball at the age of 43 — the age he would be after eight more seasons – and if the New York Yankees continue to put a championship caliber team on the field, and if he stays healthy, then Derek Jeter will join the 4,000 hit club and eventually surpass Pete “Charlie Hustle” Rose for the most hits ever by a Major League player.

Repoz Posted: January 25, 2010 at 02:45 PM | 55 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame, history, yankees

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. flournoy Posted: January 25, 2010 at 03:13 PM (#3445654)
The chances of any 35 year old playing ten more seasons are vanishingly small.
   2. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 25, 2010 at 03:16 PM (#3445659)
Unless they make him player/manager of course
   3. bunyon Posted: January 25, 2010 at 03:23 PM (#3445664)
He's got a long way to go. Getting married isn't going to help. But, I suspect, if he'll stick with it, he can catch Wilt in the end.
   4. rr Posted: January 25, 2010 at 03:25 PM (#3445666)
Getting married isn't going to help


Didn't help my mom, that's for sure.
   5. Jose is Absurdly Unemployed Posted: January 25, 2010 at 03:26 PM (#3445667)
I think it becomes a matter of if Jeter will be willing to go out there as a shell of his former self and if a team will allow him to do that. Rose got nearly 600 hits after the age of a 40 despite being pretty terrible. If Jeter can match Rose through the age of 41 and wake up before his age 42 season just 400 hits shy of the record there is going to be a lot of appeal to him to set the record and I would imagine plenty of teams willing to pay him to drive attendance. The '85 Reds had a big attendance bump for the chase though they also were a much better team than the '84 team so it's hard to say conclusively that Rose put people in the seats.
   6. WhoWantsTeixeiraDessert Posted: January 25, 2010 at 03:26 PM (#3445668)
He already gets to say "I hit that" more often than Rose.
   7. WhoWantsTeixeiraDessert Posted: January 25, 2010 at 03:29 PM (#3445671)
Will the attendence bump be better than little Alex going for 800 HR around then?
   8. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 25, 2010 at 03:36 PM (#3445678)
It's an open question as to whether Jeter will be capable of playing past 40 (and want to) but he's on the verge of passing some major milestones even before that age. This would be a pretty good 4-year run:
2009
Most career hits as a SS
Most career hits as a Yankee
2010
Active career hits leader
2011
3,000 hits
2012
Most career hits by a righthanded American Leaguer

If Jeter is still going strong by then, one more season or so might put him past Tris Speaker for 2nd place in American League career hits.
   9. Ray (CTL) Posted: January 25, 2010 at 03:38 PM (#3445681)
It's hard enough to predict the players who will still be around in their mid-30s, let alone mid-40s. Who in the world thought that Julio Franco would play until he was 62?
   10. bunyon Posted: January 25, 2010 at 03:41 PM (#3445683)
Didn't help my mom, that's for sure.

Damn, I forgot about her! She's gotta be the active leader, right?
   11. sptaylor Posted: January 25, 2010 at 04:10 PM (#3445714)
For what it's worth:
Brock2 predicts that Jeter will finish his career between age 41 and 44, with 3,695 hits. Favorite Toy says that he'll probably finish his career with 3,440 hits. Favorite Toy gives Jeter a 0% chance of reaching 4,257 hits (for 1st all-time), 0% for 4,190 (2nd), and 18% for 3,772 (3rd).
   12. Andy H. Posted: January 25, 2010 at 04:53 PM (#3445767)
Interesting that Jeter's most similar player by age is . . . Roberto Alomar. Lots of people thought he was a cinch to get to 3000 hits.
   13. jyjjy Posted: January 25, 2010 at 05:09 PM (#3445783)
I don't think anyone thought that any more once he was Jeter's current age.
   14. RJ in TO Posted: January 25, 2010 at 05:09 PM (#3445784)
It's hard enough to predict the players who will still be around in their mid-30s, let alone mid-40s. Who in the world thought that Julio Franco would play until he was 62?


In all seriousness, was there ever a final confirmation on Julio Franco's true age?
   15. bond1 Posted: January 25, 2010 at 05:10 PM (#3445787)
In 10 years, Ichiro will also have 4000 hits at age 47. He's averaged 226 hits/yr over the past 9 years.
   16. John Northey Posted: January 25, 2010 at 05:34 PM (#3445821)
Heh. Ichiro playing until 50. Lets see it! Ichiro and Jeter battling it out for the career hit leader all-time just like the Carlton-Ryan strikeout race back in the 80's. It'd be fun to watch. Doubt it'll happen, but it is fun to dream.
   17. SouthSidePat Posted: January 25, 2010 at 05:35 PM (#3445823)
In 10 years, Ichiro will also have 4000 hits at age 47. He's averaged 226 hits/yr over the past 9 years.

Yeah, but Ichiro is old and starting to break down. He went on the DL for the first time last season! Please ignore the fact that he still led the league in hits....
   18. Cowboy Popup Posted: January 25, 2010 at 05:50 PM (#3445835)
Interesting that Jeter's most similar player by age is . . . Roberto Alomar.

That's a pretty lousy comp at this point. It was great at 32 and was thrown around ALL THE TIME after 2008 but at this point it just doesn't work. Jeter has had a 118 OPS+ from 34-35. Alomar had an 85 OPS+ from 34-35. Stretch it out to include Alomar's last great year (33-35) and Jeter still has a 12 point advantage (119 to 107) in OPS+. That's probably the last year Alomar tops his comp list.
   19. TDF, trained monkey Posted: January 25, 2010 at 06:41 PM (#3445914)
Rose got nearly 600 hits after the age of a 40 despite being pretty terrible.

You have a pretty interesting definition of "terrible". From 82-86 (ages 41+ seasons), Rose was above league-average in OBP and just below in BA (adjusting for park). Now, he was a 1B and had no power, but he was alot closer to an average MLB hitter than, say, Willy Taveras ever has been.
   20. Josh1 Posted: January 25, 2010 at 06:52 PM (#3445925)
Pete was -2.4 WAR from 1982-1986. Heck, he was -1.4 WAR from 1980-1986. "Terrible" is reasonably fair.
   21. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 25, 2010 at 06:56 PM (#3445932)
Now, he was a 1B and had no power, but he was alot closer to an average MLB hitter than, say, Willy Taveras ever has been.

I'm not sure a 1B with an 86 OPS+ is more valuable offensively than a CF with a 68 OPS+ and 100 net stolen bases.

Taveras also edges Rose 82-86 by BP's WARP2 by a win and a half and while Smith's WAR has Taveras better than Rose by 8 wins.
   22. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 25, 2010 at 07:00 PM (#3445936)
In all seriousness, was there ever a final confirmation on Julio Franco's true age?

Best we can do is that it was probably AD. Neither Josephus nor Callinicus mention him explicitly, which makes dating very difficult. We need to get Murray Chass in to do some forensics.
   23. TDF, trained monkey Posted: January 25, 2010 at 07:06 PM (#3445947)
Pete was -2.4 WAR from 1982-1986. Heck, he was -1.4 WAR from 1980-1986. "Terrible" is reasonably fair...

I'm not sure a 1B with an 86 OPS+ is more valuable offensively than a CF with a 68 OPS+ and 100 net stolen bases.

Taveras also edges Rose 82-86 by BP's WARP2 by a win and a half and while Smith's WAR has Taveras better than Rose by 8 wins.


Which might be why I said "hitter".
   24. Ron Johnson Posted: January 25, 2010 at 07:07 PM (#3445950)
#19, Sean has him 2.4 wins below replacement for the time frame. A poor hitter by the standards of first-basemen with the side bonus of being a poor defensive player.

Looks right to me. Yeah OBP is life, but the OBP isn't exceptional and the complete absence of power is remarkable.

Yes, in any given year you could find worse but that's a remarkable run of bad play.
   25. Lest we forget Posted: January 25, 2010 at 07:07 PM (#3445951)
"When people began to doubt his ability to be an above average defensive shortstop, he worked that much harder to stay sharp and get better."

cutely, here and now mlb.com is hosting an mlb network sponsered site user poll whereby the current tallies have Jeter and Rollins 1 & 2 to the question, "Who is the best defensive SS today?"

anyway, i'd enjoy seeing Jeter pass the Hit King.
   26. JPWF13 Posted: January 25, 2010 at 07:14 PM (#3445959)
For what it's worth:
Brock2 predicts that Jeter will finish his career between age 41 and 44, with 3,695 hits. Favorite Toy says that he'll probably finish his career with 3,440 hits. Favorite Toy gives Jeter a 0% chance of reaching 4,257 hits (for 1st all-time), 0% for 4,190 (2nd), and 18% for 3,772 (3rd).



using BBREFS age 35 comps to project, and he barely creaks over 3000, what is interesting is that only one of his comps had a sub 100 OPS+ after age 35 (Gehringer), of curse Gehringer was the only one who hit as well as Jeter did at age 35...
   27. smileyy Posted: January 25, 2010 at 07:26 PM (#3445966)
I recall it being mentioned that Pete was playing in an era of pretty bad 1B. It wasn't the "best place to stash a guy who should really DH" position that it is today.
   28. smileyy Posted: January 25, 2010 at 07:27 PM (#3445967)
Also, if there were ever to be a re-redemption of baseball (unnecessary, IMO, but me and media don't agree on anything), it'd be Jeter claiming the all-time hits title. Taking a tainted record and making it clean, all with that pretty smile and playing his whole career for the Yankees.
   29. Josh1 Posted: January 25, 2010 at 07:35 PM (#3445974)
TDF, you were responding to "Rose got nearly 600 hits after the age of a 40 despite being pretty terrible,"
which implied to me the discussion was about overall play. Anyway to your point of just thinking about hitting, Rose was -32 (batting runs+ROE)from 1982-86, which is about a cumulative win over replacement for a 1B over those five years. It seems pretty weak by most standards.
   30. Rich Rifkin Posted: January 25, 2010 at 07:45 PM (#3445992)
#3 -- Primey.
   31. icebaseball16 Posted: January 25, 2010 at 08:20 PM (#3446039)
Maybe Jeter putting some money on the games will be the key to the milestone, eh?
   32. deputydrew Posted: January 25, 2010 at 08:27 PM (#3446048)
Are we at all concerned that Pete might have some "friends" visit Derek with a couple of lead pipes? I mean, if he's not the Hit King, what's Pete gonna do with all his polo shirts and hats?
   33. Rich Rifkin Posted: January 25, 2010 at 08:30 PM (#3446052)
#32 -- Are you suggesting this friend of Pete Rose? This dude, alas, is dead.
   34. BDC Posted: January 25, 2010 at 08:55 PM (#3446078)
Until Jeter sings in an Aqua Velva commercial, he will never replace Pete Rose.
   35. zenbitz Posted: January 25, 2010 at 09:08 PM (#3446088)
anyway, i'd enjoy seeing Jeter pass the Hit King.


Roughly equivalent to choosing the Favre-led Vikings over the Dallas Cowboys.
   36. eric Posted: January 25, 2010 at 09:14 PM (#3446093)
Jeter probably has a better chance of never getting to 3000 than he has of passing 4000.
   37. sunnyday2 Posted: January 25, 2010 at 09:26 PM (#3446106)
Over rated.
   38. JPWF13 Posted: January 25, 2010 at 09:31 PM (#3446114)
Yes, in any given year you could find worse but that's a remarkable run of bad play.


From about 1983-88 Buckner was pretty bad, creaky kneed 1b, 91 OPS+ over 3000 PAs...

OK 1BS, 1983-88, 1BS, 1500+ PAs:
Rk      Player      OPS+      PA      From      To
1     Will Clark     147     1735     1986     1988
2     Don Mattingly     146     3716     1983     1988
3     Eddie Murray     142     4015     1983     1988
4     Kent Hrbek     133     3669     1983     1988
5     Alvin Davis     132     3161     1984     1988
6     Keith Hernandez     131     3684     1983     1988
7     Darrell Evans     126     3420     1983     1988
8     Wally Joyner     125     1990     1986     1988
9     Glenn Davis     124     2381     1984     1988
10     Leon Durham     123     2751     1983     1988
11     Bob Horner     123     1936     1983     1988
12     Andres Galarraga     122     1702     1985     1988
13     Pete O
'Brien     112     3731     1983     1988
14     Greg Walker     111     2852     1983     1988
15     Jason Thompson     111     1818     1983     1986
16     Dan Driessen     110     1583     1983     1987
17     Willie Upshaw     107     3649     1983     1988
18     Sid Bream     105     1927     1983     1988
19     Greg Brock     105     2758     1983     1988
20     Cecil Cooper     104     2878     1983     1987
21     Enos Cabell     104     1549     1983     1986
22     Steve Balboni     102     2672     1983     1988
23     Steve Garvey     100     2439     1983     1987
24     Gerald Perry     96     1991     1983     1988
25     Bill Buckner     94     3390     1983     1988
Rk     Player     OPS+     PA     From     To
26     Pete Rose     84     1748     1983     1986 


I recall it being mentioned that Pete was playing in an era of pretty bad 1B.

the Median 1B ops+ from 1983 to 1988, 400 PAs was 119. The median 1B OPS+ from 2004-2009 was 120.

Rose WAS terrible at the end there.
By decade, median 1B (400+ PAS)
1900-09: 112
1910-19: 111
1920-29: 114
1930-39: 118
1940-49: 111
1950-59: 118
1960-69: 116
1970-79: 121
1980-89: 119
1990-99: 120
2000-09: 117 (2003, 109 is the outlier)

1Bs have ALWAYS hit, and they have hit like they have NOW (relative to league) for over 50 years)
   39. Lassus Posted: January 25, 2010 at 09:43 PM (#3446127)
Brock2 predicts that Jeter will finish his career between age 41 and 44, with 3,695 hits. Favorite Toy says that he'll probably finish his career with 3,440 hits. Favorite Toy gives Jeter a 0% chance of reaching 4,257 hits (for 1st all-time), 0% for 4,190 (2nd), and 18% for 3,772 (3rd).


Is there a way to use Favorite Toy to show what it would have said Rose's chances were at any give time in his past?
   40. rconn23 Posted: January 25, 2010 at 10:21 PM (#3446170)
"Jeter probably has a better chance of never getting to 3000 than he has of passing 4000."

Wow. You couldn't be more wrong.
   41. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: January 25, 2010 at 10:25 PM (#3446176)
Seeing that there isn't and never will be any way to prove that, I can't see how it achieves this platonic ideal of wrongitude.
   42. Ron Johnson Posted: January 25, 2010 at 10:26 PM (#3446177)
#39 Sure. From what I can see no significant chance until after the 1981 season. Favorite toy basically just gives him 1 year left after he turns 40. The rules say a guy who hasn't retired is assumed to have at least .5 years left. If he's playing regularly assume at least a year and if he's playing regularly and fairly well a year and a half.

Overall, I get 11% at 40, then 37%, 26%, 80%

Here's another useful way to think of this. (EL is established level of hits, YR is years required at that level)


AGE EL YR
32 213 9.6
33 202 9.2
34 205 8.0
35 208 6.9
36 209 5.9
37 203 5.1
38 204 4.0
39 195 3.3
40 202 2.4
41 188 1.7
42 153 1.3
43 123 0.8
   43. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: January 25, 2010 at 10:35 PM (#3446189)
Over rated.

Clap, clap... syph crabs warts!
   44. Lassus Posted: January 25, 2010 at 10:36 PM (#3446190)
Overall, I get 11% at 40, then 37%, 26%, 80%

Thanks, Ron. What was Rose's percentage at 35, Jeter's age now? I'm sorry if I can't get that myself from your numbers.
   45. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: January 25, 2010 at 10:39 PM (#3446192)
Pete Rose's chances for 4256 hits

after 1966: 0%
1971: 0%
1976: 0%
1981: 0%
1982: 13% (41 years old, 3869 hits)
And up from there, as he remains a regular player (which means the Toy always assumes he has 1.5 years remaining, regardless his age).
   46. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: January 25, 2010 at 10:41 PM (#3446195)
Ron, how do you get his established hit level as 202 when he is 40, as that was the strike year and he had only 140 hits. Did you pro-rate the hits out (which could be reasonable, as he didn't lose time to an injury)?
   47. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: January 25, 2010 at 10:45 PM (#3446200)
Lassus, I get Rose with no chance at age 35 (technically, a negative 14% chance. I have Jeter at negative 15% right now, so similarly unlikely)
   48. Lassus Posted: January 25, 2010 at 10:49 PM (#3446207)
1976: 0%
1981: 0%


Our Computer Masters have failed us!

I think as a non-statistician (in the true sense of the word) I take 0% a little too literally.
   49. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: January 25, 2010 at 10:51 PM (#3446209)
Jeter probably has a better chance of never getting to 3000 than he has of passing 4000."

Wow. You couldn't be more wrong


I don't think so. What are Jeter's chances of 4,000 hits? 5%? What are his chances of 3,000? If it's less than 95%, the statement is true.
   50. bjhanke Posted: January 25, 2010 at 10:54 PM (#3446212)
So what you're saying is this: Pete Rose holds the record for drawing out a career at, really, below replacement level for his position, in order to chase a longevity record. Teams let him do that because watching the record chase sold tickets. If Jeter does the same, and some team cooperates, he might pass Rose. OK. And if Albert Pujols suddenly hits 75 homers, he will hold the single season record. Basically, it's circular reasoning in both cases.
   51. Hang down your head, Tom Foley Posted: January 25, 2010 at 11:10 PM (#3446223)
Also, if there were ever to be a re-redemption of baseball (unnecessary, IMO, but me and media don't agree on anything), it'd be Jeter claiming the all-time hits title. Taking a tainted record and making it clean, all with that pretty smile and playing his whole career for the Yankees.


The record has belonged to Cap Anson, Ty Cobb, and Pete Rose for the last 130 years. The hits record has to hold the record for most tainted record. Also, I'm pretty sure Cal McVey tried to steal Lincoln's body and Ross Barnes was part of Tammany Hall.
   52. Josh1 Posted: January 25, 2010 at 11:25 PM (#3446230)
Cobb's hits record was so tainted he took credit for 2 hits that never even occurred.
   53. bobm Posted: January 26, 2010 at 01:23 AM (#3446303)
Where are they going to play a 41-year-old Derek Jeter? Still at shortstop? They can't move him to 1B until after Teixeira's contract expires.
   54. Ray (CTL) Posted: January 26, 2010 at 01:37 AM (#3446311)
The funny thing is, in order for a player to surpass Rose, he's probably going to have to play a fair amount not on merit. Such as we saw with Rose, and, more recently, with Biggio's crawl to 3,000.

If ever there were a player in this day and age who might sneak into position to do that, it would seem to be The Captain, who has reached a level above sainthood here in New York. Yes, the Yankees' front office would seem to be smarter than that, but a dumb contract combined with moving him to 1B would probably do the trick. He could put up superficially good numbers of .275/12/100 and Girardi would pencil him in every day.
   55. PepTech Posted: January 27, 2010 at 02:59 AM (#3447369)
I would say Ichiro! has a better chance of passing Rose than Jeter does. Neither is measurable.

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