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Tuesday, January 09, 2018

Lorenzo Cain likely to age gracefully

Petriello’s comps:
Garret Anderson
Mike Cameron
Brett Gardner
Curtis Granderson
Torii Hunter
Andruw Jones
Kenny Lofton
Reggie Sanders
Shane Victorino
Randy Winn

Baseball Reference’s most similar players.
Similar Batters through 31
Marlon Byrd (968.0)
Angel Pagan (967.0)
Roy Weatherly (965.0)
Al Zarilla (958.7)
Johnny Grubb (957.3)
Dave Robertson (950.6)
Lee Maye (950.1)
Ira Flagstead (947.8)
Frank Catalanotto (947.1)
Fred Schulte (947.0)

Jim Furtado Posted: January 09, 2018 at 06:33 AM | 2 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: free agents, lorenzo cain, similarity scores

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   1. BDC Posted: January 09, 2018 at 09:03 AM (#5603212)
And some more: centered on Cain in terms of OPS+ and PAs through age 31, outfielders ranked by dWAR:

Player           dWAR   PA OPSRbaser  HR RBI   BA  OBP  SLG      Pos
Lorenzo Cain     12.1 3052  106   21.8  57 321 .290 .342 .421  
*89/HD7
Brett Gardner     8.5 3520  101   30.7  56 301 .264 .346 .392  
*78/HD9
Starling Marte    6.6 2794  114    9.3  65 266 .288 .344 .439    
*78/H
Gary Matthews     4.5 3136   97    3.3  78 315 .263 .336 .419  
*897H/D
Josh Reddick      3.8 3474  110   13.2 109 428 .264 .323 .439 
*9/7H8D3
Vic Davalillo     3.1 2857   96    4.5  26 199 .280 .314 .366   
*8H/97
Jay Payton        2.5 2597   99   
-4.3  77 300 .285 .335 .443  *87/H9D
Angel Pagan       2.2 2958  107   14.3  46 295 .281 .333 .423  
*87/9HD
Marcell Ozuna     1.2 2684  114   
-3.7  96 361 .277 .329 .457  *87/9HD
Will Venable      1.2 2737  106    9.6  75 274 .252 .316 .414  
*98H/73 


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 1/9/2018.

Just aren't a lot of close batting comps who weren't regulars till age 27 but have nonetheless put up such impressive defensive numbers. Even the later-bloomers in the top list above broke in two or three years younger than Cain. I have no idea what the comps say about Cain; probably nothing. He's still fast, he can still hit a little; but health is a pretty individual characteristic.
   2. Hotel Coral Esix Snead (tmutchell) Posted: January 09, 2018 at 10:10 AM (#5603254)
Bill James' similarity scores are a pretty "quick and dirty" method of comparing players' overall career stats. No adjustment is made for parks, leagues, run scoring environment, etc, only position. It's just linear minuses based on the totals, so Byrd, who was a regular at 25 but then stunk from ages 26-28 and then became productive again at age 29, looks very much like Cain (minus all the stolen bases), who wasn't a regular til 27 but then produced more or less consistently from then on, when healthy.

Weatherly was a regular at 21, but was out of baseball at 29, possibly serving in WWII, though it doesn't say so on BBRef.

David "No, Not That One" Robertson led the NL in homers at ages 26 and 27, though it was the Dead Ball Era, so he only hit 12 each year.

Schulte and Flagstead were essentially slap hitters playing in the roaring 20's and 30's when offense was going crazy, so their adjusted OPS is lower despite similar batting averages.

Petrillo's comps may be overly generous, but he's certainly using more advanced tools.

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