Is this the end for The Attack Hamster?

I would still take him over Ibanez.

Too little, too late. Unless he can play all three outfield positions at once, hit in about five different lineup spots, and pitch relief, it's the difference between missing the playoffs by a lot, and missing the playoffs by a whole lot.

I hope a Bourjos trade isn't the next step in this "plan."

Trout vs Harper. Love it.

What's the Attack Hamster?

Time for Dylan Bundy!

I haven't paid much attention, but what's the general buzz among the Anaheim faithful with regards Pujols' tepid start?

even paying the contract they couldn't get anything for him? dang.

Hard to believe this might be the end for Abreu. 38 isn't that old for a HoF-caliber player, and it looks like he can still hit.

And I'll take Trout over Harper in the battle of the phenoms.

If the Phillies aren't going to win, I want them to Not Win with Abreu in the OF.

The Red Sox could use him in LF.

The Red Sox could use him in LF.

Abreu OPS+ 68

Cody Ross OPS+ 136

I think he meant for his defense.

I haven't paid much attention, but what's the general buzz among the Anaheim faithful with regards Pujols' tepid start?

Small sample size. He's hit some balls hard right at people, sometimes he presses too much. He still looks completely hitterish and has a great swing.

It's ####### April. I'm fine with the Angels starting off 6-14 once every ten years if they end up winning the World Series. It would help to get ####### Wells out of the way so that the ballplayers can take the field.

Cody Ross OPS+ 136

Sure, let's pretend that's going to keep happening.

The Red Sox are on a pace to score over 900 runs this year. They don't need Bobby Abreu. He does not look like he can still hit.

They don't need Bobby Abreu. He does not look like he can still hit.

Maybe they should try him as a lefty in the pen.

Have you seen where the bullpen is in Angels Stadium? How would they ever be able to get him to warmup?

Have you seen where the bullpen is in Angels Stadium? How would they ever be able to get him to warmup?

Well done.

Abreu's one of the most annoying good players to ever have on your team. Except he's not good anymore.

He might be done, he is 38 after all, but I don't see how 8 games with the Angels, where he feels like he's being dicked around, is enough to tell. I mean, the Phillies are running Juan ####### Pierre out there right now, Abreu's gotta be better than even money to do more with 400ish PAs than him.

And I don't care how lazy/scared/whatever he was on defense, I don't know how you can be annoyed with a 300/400/500 prime and 280/370/430 decline-phase.

Cody Ross OPS+ 136


Sure, let's pretend that's going to keep happening.

You see that opposite field blast he hit? And he's 31. And he plays in Fenway.

So yeah, maybe not 136, but 120?

I say this year Cody Ross adds ALCS MVP trophy to his NLCS MVP trophy.

For all the jokes about Abreu shying away from walls, he ended up as one of the most durable players in history. It's probably worth a couple of doubles off the wall if it means your rightfielder is going to play 150-plus games every single year for more than a decade.

Abreu's right up on the WAR HOF borderline. So, using that as a starting part and gettin' all Keltner up in here:

Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?
- No

Was he the best player on his team?
- Yes. Abreu was the best player on the non-contending early-mid Aughties Phillies.

Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?
- He might have been the best RF in the NL for a spell, if not for Sammy Sosa. YMMV wrt PEDs.

Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?
- Yes, particularly during his run with the Yankees and Angels.

Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?
- A 120 OPS+ decline phase is might fine.

Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?
- Absolutely not.

Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?
- Eh, probably. Abreu was a really nifty power/speed package in his prime.

Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?
- On the surface, no. I'd imagine there are some nifty power/speed contortions (375 SB/250HR/550 doubles!) that could happen, though. Really, Abreu's case would be helped mightily if he could catch on with someone else and have one more season with: 111 hits (2500 career), 16 HR (300 career), 43 doubles (600 career), 2 triples (60 career), 7 steals (400 career), 70 RBI (1400 career), 87 runs (1500 career), and 79 BB (1500 career). So, basically one more good season around the level he established in his decline phase.

EDIT: Even Abreu's career triple slash: 293/397/480 reflects this close-but-no-cigar pattern (he coulda been a lifetime 300/400/500 guy.) With just one or two really monster seasons in his prime, Abreu's probably got a real shot at the HOF but, alas, those years never came.

Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?
- Abreu's durability has to be a point in his favor. There was a lot of stink about him being a bad clubhouse influence in Philly though, no?

Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?
- No.

How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?
- No MVP awards. 1999, 2001 and 2004 were probably his best chances. By WAR, 98 and 2003.

How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go to the Hall of Fame?
- Only 2 AS games?!? Abreu was consistently an AS caliber player from 1998-2006. Most hall of famers were at least this good.

If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?
- Probably not. Maybe in his very best seasons, but only on the sort of team that had a great pitching staff.

What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?
- The legend of the home run derby messing up a player's swing became big with Abreu's second half drop off, IIRC.

Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?
- Again, other than some stink in Philly, Abreu was close to a model citizen.

... I think Abreu's a very solid HOVG'r based on Keltner. WAR's got him approaching the borderline, though (58.7).

Ryan Howard pretty thoroughly debunked the notion of the HRD messing up a player's swing the very next season.

Knocks against Abreu's HOF chances:

Played in Steroid Era
Latino playing in Steroid Era
Bad rep in Philadelphia (didn't he? When he left?)
Bad rep as far as the 'walls thing' goes
no ringzzzz

Somebody who needs a DH could gamble on him and/or maybe he can quickly learn 1B but his defense grades out as truly terrible the last couple of years -- -20 in 2010, -5 in just 224 innings in 2011 but apparently OK so far in 53 innings this year. DH for the O's makes a ton of sense (Nick Johnson is 0 for 26, ugh). Or the Tigers. Or the A's.

If "Steroid Era" was associated with players being impervious to injury, it would affect Abreu, but as long as it's associated with players who hit disproportionate numbers of home runs Abreu is in the clear.

Career SLG by season
.497
.549
.554
.543
.521
.468
.544
.474
.462
.445
.471
.435
.435
.365

Can't get a more normal aging curve than that.

I mean, the Phillies are running Juan ####### Pierre out there right now, Abreu's gotta be better than even money to do more with 400ish PAs than him.

Probably. But consider this. In the last 2 years Abreu played exactly 162 games in the OF and put up a -3.6 WAR. He's probably worse than that now.

Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?
- Eh, probably. Abreu was a really nifty power/speed package in his prime.

Can we shortcut the Keltner list to just this one?

Bobby Abreu finally hit the wall.

I wonder how Kevin Stocker is doing.

Corner OF with similar hitting value and playing time to Abreu:



Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/28/2012.

Corner OF within five linear weights batting runs (which I believe includes SB/CS on BB-Ref, though now that I think about it I'm not 100% sure) of Abreu each way:



Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/28/2012.

And within 5 AROM WAR each way:



Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/28/2012.

Someone else can look at Fangraphs WAR or BPRo's or Baseball Chart or whoever it is using Michael Humphrey's defensive numbers in their WAR ...

If Abreu's career is over now, then in terms of Hall of Fame voting, I would be surprised if he ever tops 25% of the vote. I think in terms of worth, he is an interesting borderline case (probably not quite enough peak for my taste). But he never turned into the HR hitter that once seemed a possibility, and he never came that close to his stated goal of winning a batting title. Like Raines, he did a number of things well but voters still seem unimpressed by players who can draw a lot of walks and hit lots of doubles. Unlike Raines, of course, he lacks a signature "calling card" like stolen bases (although he was a pretty good base stealer, with a career SB% of 76% resulting in 393 SB -- but again, he'll get little credit for it because he wasn't a leadoff hitter and he never led the league in SBs). Without a milestone like 3,000 hits or 500 HR, his longevity won't help him that much. I think the best (realistic) case is that he signs on somewhere as a DH and can put up another couple of seasons of 2010-caliber offense before falling off the inevitable cliff: but even then, as a 300-300 man with 2,750+ hits and 1,500+ RBI, it would still be long shot with the BBWAA.

If Abreu's career is over now, then in terms of Hall of Fame voting, I would be surprised if he ever tops 25% of the vote.

He has essentially zero black ink. No career milestones and no obvious peak = no chance.

EDIT: Not that I'm disagreeing with your conclusion; I'm just saying that you're making it more complicated than necessary.

If Abreu's career is over now, then in terms of Hall of Fame voting, I would be surprised if he ever tops 25% of the vote.

He has essentially zero black ink. No career milestones and no obvious peak = no chance.

I agree. I doubt he gets 5 votes. Jimmy Wynn, a better player, got 0. More recently, John Olerud got 4. Ellis Burks got 2. Will Clark got 23.

Larry Walker and Fred McGriff are hovering around 20; took Raines 3 years to get out of the low 20s. Abreu has 1 GG, 2 AS games and zero top 10 MVP finishes. He'll be lucky to get 5%, can't imagine him topping Bernie Williams 9.6%. Heck, I'm not laying money on him for the HoM although he'll probably make that someday.