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Monday, June 04, 2012

Lowe: Luck missing from Tigers ace Justin Verlander’s starts

Damn, Windows 8 must have jiggled John Smoltz’s Player Page upside down!

“There’s a lot of luck that goes into baseball,” said Smoltz, who provided game commentary on TBS. “I argued that my year after the 24-win season was a better year than when I won 24.”

Smoltz pitched a few more innings the year after the 24-win season than he did during it. His ERA barely rose, from 2.94 to 3.02. Yet his record fell from 24-8 to 15-12.

Verlander has a similar portfolio. He’s on a pace to pitch more innings and have more strikeouts than he did last season, when he led the American League in both departments.

His ERA last season was 2.40. It’s 2.67 now, fifth-best in the league. You’re pretty good when you can lose three straight starts and rank fifth in the league in ERA.

Where have the wins gone?

...“A lot of components have to come together to have a special year,” Smoltz said. “That’s what makes it hard to have it four years in a row.”

Repoz Posted: June 04, 2012 at 05:12 AM | 9 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: history, tigers

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   1. joker24 Posted: June 04, 2012 at 10:25 AM (#4147506)
I know I should know better and should waste my thoughts on something less pointless, but people quoting pitcher wins and the like is starting to really strike a nerve. It's just stupid, and worse, it's OBVIOUS stupid. Luck is involved in a stat that is more dependent on offense, defense and bullpen performance than a pitcher's? No ####### way.
   2. charityslave is thinking about baseball Posted: June 05, 2012 at 01:40 AM (#4148633)
Yes, joker, obvious and hackneyed to you. But to many, especially inside the game, this is a startlingly new observation.
   3. baudib Posted: June 05, 2012 at 01:43 AM (#4148635)
Well, it seemed like we were turning a corner on this when Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young Award.
   4. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: June 05, 2012 at 02:05 AM (#4148638)
I dunno, I almost never see wins cited anywhere that matters. It's kind of cute.
   5. bobm Posted: June 05, 2012 at 02:21 AM (#4148640)
[4] Pitcher wins haven't gone away yet.

A White Sox pitcher has again been named the American League's Pitcher of the Month. This time, it's left-hander Chris Sale.

The American League's leader on the season with a 2.34 ERA, Sale takes home his first monthly award after going 4-1 with a league-leading 1.71 ERA in May. Sale, a 23-year-old lefty, struck out 35 and walked just nine in 31 2/3 innings and five starts and six appearances.


http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120603&content_id=32703890&vkey=news_cws&c_id=cws

Nationals left-hander Gio Gonzalez was named the National League Pitcher of the Month for May – the second consecutive month a pitcher on the team has earned that honor. Stephen Strasburg earned the distinction for April. ... Gonzalez, 26, who was acquired for four of the Nationals best prospects, was a perfect 5-0 in his five May starts, with a 2.24 ERA in 32 innings and a league-best 45 strikeouts. Overall, Gonzalez is 7-1, with a 2.04 ERA, second-best in the major leagues, and a remarkable 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings, also second-best in baseball.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/nationals-journal/post/gio-gonzalez-named-national-league-pitcher-of-the-month-bryce-harper-earns-rookie-award/2012/06/03/gJQA1y6dBV_blog.html
   6. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: June 05, 2012 at 07:27 AM (#4148663)
Maybe I'm missing something, but if you think pitcher wins are "OBVIOUS stupid" and you'd like to see less emphasis placed on them by the MSM, then wouldn't you consider MSM articles about how there's a lot of luck involved in pitcher wins to be a GOOD thing?
   7. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: June 05, 2012 at 09:11 AM (#4148694)
I don't really see how the quotes in #4 show anything about pitcher wins. Obviously Gonzalez probably wouldn't have gotten the award if he hadn't gone 5-0, but he did have an ERA less than two and a quarter and lead the league in K's. Same for Sale, who had the best ERA during the month. I don't see how you can look at those stats and say "Oh, there are two guys who didn't deserve it but won the award on the back of a bunch of wins."
   8. bobm Posted: June 05, 2012 at 09:54 AM (#4148712)
[7] It's not that the pitchers are undeserving, but merely that the pitcher wins are still prominent in their descriptions, if not as a criterion.
   9. Eddo Posted: June 05, 2012 at 11:59 AM (#4148797)
[7] It's not that the pitchers are undeserving, but merely that the pitcher wins are still prominent in their descriptions, if not as a criterion.

I guess I don't see the problem, necessarily. It's a description of the pitchers' months; if you were writing about a lottery winner, you'd feature that fact prominently in your description, and that's clearly not any sort of judgement on their character.

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