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Thursday, December 22, 2011

Mackey: Don’t laugh, but healthy Mauer, Morneau vault offense near top ?

Leapin’ Lavillenie’s! Good luck with that.

- The team run total projection was derived by using David Smyth’s base runs estimator formula—a formula that is generally accurate within 10-15 runs.

...- The biggest reason for the jump in runs, besides health, would be due to a massive injection of on-base percentage—specifically with Carroll and Willingham. Mauer and Morneau are on-base machines as well, when healthy.

- If any of these players performs better or worse than the numbers listed, the overall run total of the team will obviously be affected. In other words, if Morneau struggles like he did last season, all bets are off—and 771 runs could turn into 720 or fewer, and so on.

- Plate appearances for each player were rough estimates, and they may be optimistic in the cases of Span, Mauer and Morneau.

- It’s highly likely the Twins will use more than the 13 batters listed. In that case, the additional players will cut into the playing time of those listed above (Drew Butera and Joe Benson, for instance). Those additional players may or may not affect the overall end run total.

Scoring 771 runs would have ranked the Twins fourth in baseball last season behind the Red Sox (875), Yankees (867), Rangers (855) and Tigers (787).

But what are the chances Mauer and Morneau are healthy and productive for six months?

 

Repoz Posted: December 22, 2011 at 10:59 AM | 14 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: history, projections, sabermetrics, twins

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Jacob Posted: December 22, 2011 at 12:40 PM (#4021687)
Ha, ha!
   2. akrasian Posted: December 22, 2011 at 02:39 PM (#4021736)
Scoring 771 runs would have ranked the Twins fourth in baseball last season behind the Red Sox (875), Yankees (867), Rangers (855) and Tigers (787).

Well, they would have been fifth last year, not fourth. And that's for the AL. Comparing to non-dh teams isn't particularly relevant.
   3. jwb Posted: December 22, 2011 at 04:56 PM (#4021912)
The Twins' offense will be better if their two former MVPs are healthy and play up to their formerly established levels. This is news?
   4. Gamingboy Posted: December 22, 2011 at 05:23 PM (#4021947)
Easier said than done.

I'm sure Mauer will continue to hit pretty well for average (even last year, by far the worst season of his career, he was able to get a respectable-for-basically-any-catcher-but-him .287 as he fought through all of the injuries and such, and I wouldn't be surprised if he's well above .300 again next season once he's had a full spring training and such), but I don't think he's ever going to get that power stroke back, especially with Target Field's current dimensions (alot of his 2009 HRs became doubles in 2010).

But Morneau, jeez, I worry about him. Concussions suck. I mean, I honestly have no idea- and nobody else does- if he'll ever be the same again. Same goes for every other concussed person in sports.
   5. The Long Arm of Rudy Law Posted: December 22, 2011 at 05:43 PM (#4021969)
The White Sox offense will be better if Adam Dunn hits like Adam Dunn and Alex Rios doesn't hit like Adam Dunn's grandmother. Also, if any of the three other holes in their lineup do anything and they can fill the hole they'll create by trading one of their two good hitters.
   6. Nasty Nate Posted: December 22, 2011 at 06:25 PM (#4022017)
The Twins' offense will be better if their two former MVPs are healthy and play up to their formerly established levels. This is news?


I think he's saying more than that. He's saying that the Twins offense actually has a chance to be above-average, which would be news after their putrid output in 2011.
   7. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 22, 2011 at 06:37 PM (#4022023)
Their offense will be better, but I don't think it will be good. First of all, the likelihood that Mauer and Morneau are both healthy enough to play 135+ games is as likely a 75 degree Christmas in Minneapolis. You're also counting on an oft-injured Ryan Doumit and a 38 year old career bench player in Jamey Carooll. While I love Willingham, they are losing Cuddyer and Kubel and Thome - their three most productive hitters last year.

I think their pitching is going to be putrid though. Who will be better? Liriano likely. Baker is likely to regress. Rumors are they are signing Jason Marquis. That's not an upgrade. Matt Capps is their closer. On paper, I think the Twins are the worst team in the division.
   8. Athletic Supporter was shiny, now he's all rusted Posted: December 22, 2011 at 06:37 PM (#4022024)
I laughed. Oops.
   9. Bob Evans Posted: December 22, 2011 at 07:07 PM (#4022049)
He's saying that the Twins offense actually has a chance to be above-average, which would be news after their putrid output in 2011.

A non-zero chance, but can you say any more than that about Morneau's chance for a return to form?
   10. Bug Selig Posted: December 23, 2011 at 01:17 PM (#4022554)
Projections:

CF Denard Span (650 plate appearances): .274/.353/.367, 3 HR, 23 2B, 10 3B, 21 SB
SS Jamey Carroll (550): .281/.349/.328, 0 HR, 16 2B, 3 3B, 14 SB
C/1B Joe Mauer (590): .323/.399/.451, 9 HR, 37 2B, 1 SB
RF Josh Willingham (550): .260/.358/.481, 25 HR, 27 2B, 6 SB
1B/DH Justin Morneau (500): .282/.366/.507, 22 HR, 31 2B
C/DH Ryan Doumit (480): .261/.327/.430, 15 HR, 25 2B, 3 SB
3B Danny Valencia (605): .281/.332/.434, 16 HR, 33 2B, 3 SB
2B Alexi Casilla (525): .271/.333/.368, 3 HR, 24 2B, 18 SB
LF Ben Revere (520): .282/.328/.338, 1 HR, 14 2B, 5 3B, 42 SB

INF Trevor Plouffe (525): .253/.320/.416, 16 HR, 26 2B, 4 SB
INF Tsuyoshi Nishioka (250): .261/.324/.345, 2 HR, 9 2B, 2 3B, 8 SB
1B/DH Chris Parmelee (250): .254/.334/.402, 7 HR, 11 2B
OF Rene Tosoni (205): .244/.313/.399, 6 HR, 9 2B, 4 SB


Not only is he assuming health by some very risky guys, most of the projections seem pretty optimistic. Some guys seem to get excessive regression toward the mean, which only makes sense if you assume that a major league hitter can't REALLY be as bad as Tosoni, or Nishioka, or Casilla, or Plouffe, or the missing but ever-popular drew Butera.
   11. RJ in TO Posted: December 23, 2011 at 03:12 PM (#4022601)
or Nishioka

Nishioka is a guy who I could easily see improving much more than expected. Between the adjustment to the majors, the broken leg, and the positional flip in spring training and back after his injury, he had a lot working against him last year. I'm not saying he'll be a star, but it wouldn't be shocking if he was able to get to being an average (for the position) offensive player in 2012.

The other guys you listed, however, really do seem to suck.
   12. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 23, 2011 at 03:15 PM (#4022605)
If Plouffe hits that well, wouldn't you just start him full time at 2B? Why have a bench player that is better than your starter? Is his defense that lousy?
   13. Craig in MN Posted: December 23, 2011 at 03:36 PM (#4022612)

If Plouffe hits that well, wouldn't you just start him full time at 2B? Why have a bench player that is better than your starter? Is his defense that lousy?


It's pretty lousy. The Twins actually don't consider him an infielder anymore....he's an outfielder who can play infield in an emergency. I like him, but I'm a little surprised that he's still hanging around. He seems like a bad fit on the Twins...he'd make a pretty good 25th man on an NL team. I was sort of hoping the Twins would have packaged him and Mijares or Slowey for a little better return.
   14. DL from MN Posted: December 23, 2011 at 03:37 PM (#4022615)
Plouffe has an erratic infield arm and isn't very good turning the DP.

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