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Monday, November 02, 2009

Madden: For Yankees’ Joba Chamberlain, World Series shows he’ll stay in bullpen

And (waves Carex brochure wildly)...is Andy Pettitte the new Jack Morris?

In notching his 17th career postseason victory in Game 3 on Saturday night - extending his own record - Andy Pettitte is starting to creep into the Hall of Fame conversation.

“The postseason wins immediately get your attention,” said one veteran scout. “In my opinion, Andy Pettitte is a Hall of Fame pitcher for three reasons: The most wins by any pitcher in the postseason, over 200 wins in the regular season, and lastly because he told the truth.” The latter, of course, is in reference to Pettitte admitting he took HGH in 2002 and 2004 (when he was injured both of those seasons). It remains to be seen how the voting Baseball Writers Association will view Pettitte when his career is over, although he’ll probably need to get to 250 wins (he’s currently 229-135) to really establish himself as a bona fide Hall of Fame candidate. After that, the best comparison would be to Jack Morris, who was 254-186 during the regular season and is acknowledged as one of the greatest postseason pitchers ever (albeit with a much smaller resume), with a 7-4 record and 4-2, 2.96 for the World Series. But because his lifetime ERA of 3.90 would be the highest of any pitcher in the Hall of Fame, Morris has struggled to garner more than 50% support on the ballot with 75% necessary for election. Pettitte’s lifetime ERA is 3.91.

Cafardo has more…

“The postseason numbers are better than anyone who has ever pitched.’’ Buck Martinez said: “Yes, he (Pettitte) should get in, but not before Bert Blyleven and Jack Morris.’’

Repoz Posted: November 02, 2009 at 12:33 PM | 31 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame, history, phillies, sabermetrics, yankees

Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 02, 2009 at 01:01 PM (#3374370)
“In my opinion, Andy Pettitte is a Hall of Fame pitcher for three reasons: The most wins by any pitcher in the postseason, over 200 wins in the regular season, and lastly because he told the truth.”


The ghost of Parson Weems thinks George Washington belongs in the HOF for that very last reason, too.
   2. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: November 02, 2009 at 01:22 PM (#3374377)
I think I'll take up smoking, then quit.

"Good for you, boy. Giving up smoking is one of the hardest things to do."
   3. joker24 Posted: November 02, 2009 at 02:01 PM (#3374388)
I've heard Blyleven comps with Pettitte, as though the 2000 inning difference is irrelevant.
   4. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: November 02, 2009 at 02:02 PM (#3374389)
I don't usually quote Bill James (mainly because I haven't read enough of his work to do so properly), but I do have the 2008 gold mine someplace, and in it, James makes a point of how some players' HoF chances may improve (or suffer) if there is a paradigm shift in the way they are perceived (I particularly remember James making this point about El Duque Hernández and his Cuban play).

Perhaps something like that is happening with Pettitte.
   5. sunnyday2 Posted: November 02, 2009 at 02:28 PM (#3374403)
“The postseason wins immediately get your attention,” said one veteran scout.

Scouts should get a vote, especially "old scouts."
   6. sunnyday2 Posted: November 02, 2009 at 02:30 PM (#3374404)
Seriously I'll say this. The modern ballplayer has gotten so screwed by the HoF voting that I'm OK with Pettitte going in even if it is before a few guys who were better. He goes in, it helps Blyleven and Morris maybe. Or maybe it only helps old Yankees, I DK.
   7. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 02, 2009 at 03:00 PM (#3374425)
One example of Pettitte "telling the truth".
   8. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: November 02, 2009 at 03:03 PM (#3374427)
Giving up smoking is as hard as it is to start flossing.
   9. AROM Posted: November 02, 2009 at 03:11 PM (#3374440)
and lastly because he told the truth


That's a way they can still punish absolute all-time greats like Clemens and Bonds, but still keep the door open for borderline candidates like Pettite who also used PEDs. Unfortunately, that standard also opens the door for Jose Canseco.
   10. Textbook Editor Posted: November 02, 2009 at 03:20 PM (#3374452)
Dear Yankees,

Please keep Joba in the 8th inning role. Hughes would be great for the 7th inning as well if he gets his head on straight. If not, you should trade Hughes--weak-willed men should not be Yankees.

Then go back to a 3-man rotation for next season: see how well it'd gone this postseason? Imagine if you did that for 2010! You'd have 120 wins! If you do need a 4th starter, sign John Smoltz--his veteran presence is worth 15-18 wins!

Sincerely,
A Red Sox fan.
   11. catomi01 Posted: November 02, 2009 at 03:50 PM (#3374474)
Then go back to a 3-man rotation for next season


If it means no more Sidney Ponson, Shawn Chacon, Kei Igawa, or Darrel Rasner, I am in favor of this move.
   12. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: November 02, 2009 at 04:14 PM (#3374507)
All season long, the Yankee high command led everyone to believe that their special handling of Joba Chamberlain was designed to prepare him to be the fourth starter for the postseason and, presumably, a permanent rotation fixture beginning next year.
Uhhhhh... it was?

They could blow past the innings limit, they could shut him down, or they could try to finesse him through the last month and a half with the odd 3-inning starts they were giving him. They felt the last was the best shot at getting him in the postseason. It didn't work. They considered starting him in the LCS and World Series, decided that Gaudin would probably be better, then decided that 3 starters would be better, and decided to stick Joba in the 'pen for the playoffs.

<u>He has not pitched well out of the bullpen</u>.

Nothing that has happened this postseason would indicate that the Yankees don't intend to keep Joba in the rotation.
   13. RJ in TO Posted: November 02, 2009 at 04:30 PM (#3374530)
Just to check, how many truths did Pettitte tell? I remember three distinct ones, each carrying a slightly higher degree of truthiness than the last, but I'm still not clear if any of them were actually the real and full truth.

As to Pettitte as a potential Hall of Famer, I really have no problem with the concept.
   14. SoSH U at work Posted: November 02, 2009 at 04:39 PM (#3374543)
“The postseason numbers are better than anyone who has ever pitched.’’ Buck Martinez said:


John Smoltz now knows what it's like to be Kevin Brown.
   15. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: November 02, 2009 at 04:50 PM (#3374554)
Pettitte seems more of a notable player than a Hall of Fame player. Will he have the most postseason starts of all time when he retires/does he already have it now?

Edited for clarity.
   16. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 02, 2009 at 04:57 PM (#3374560)
Pettitte seems more of a notable player than a Hall of Fame player. Will he have the most postseason starts of all time when he retires/does he already have it now?

If Pettitte gets to ~250 wins, he's a clear HoFer by the old standards (probably an early eligibility Veteran Committee guy) and a clear miss by the new standards (starting pitchers have to win 300 Gs).

I don't think any of us know which way the Hall will go over the next 20 years. We'll get a good read with Mussina, who would have been a clear BBWA guy prior to the last 25 years.
   17. SoSH U at work Posted: November 02, 2009 at 04:58 PM (#3374562)
Will he have the most postseason starts of all time when he retires/does he already have it now?


He's started 39 games. Glavine's started 35 and Clemens 34. I can't think of anyone else who would be ahead of them.
   18. Greg Goosen at 30 Posted: November 02, 2009 at 06:39 PM (#3374648)
   19. Danny Posted: November 02, 2009 at 06:57 PM (#3374667)
Andy Pettitte is Chuck Finley with a better postseason record. Chuck Finley with a better postseason record is still not a HOFer.
   20. Srul Itza Posted: November 02, 2009 at 10:02 PM (#3374897)
Finley:

200-173, 3197.1 IP, 115 ERA+

Pettitte:

229-135, 2926.1 IP, 116 ERA+

Clearly, Chuck did not know how to win -- because he was not very skillful in picking which teams to pitch for.

Mussina:

270-153, 3562.2 IP, 123 ERA+.

If 117 games over .500, combined with 123 ERA+, is no longer HOF territory, they need to rethink this.
   21. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 02, 2009 at 10:22 PM (#3374920)
Anyone who votes for Andy Pettitte for the HOF should be publicly decapitated.
   22. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: November 02, 2009 at 10:28 PM (#3374924)
And then the decapitated head should be stabbed in the neck.
   23. jwb Posted: November 02, 2009 at 10:29 PM (#3374929)
Through 2008, the leaders in postseason games started were:

.                      GS   W   L   ERA
Tom Glavine            35  14  16  3.42
Andy Pettitte          35  14   9  3.95
Roger Clemens          34  12   8  3.75
Greg Maddux            30  11  14  3.27
John Smoltz            27  15   4  2.65 

For World Series starts, the leaders were:

Whitey Ford            22  10  8  2.71
Bob Caruthers          16   7  8  2.51
Waite Hoyt             11   6  4  1.82
Christy Mathewson      11   5  5  0.97
Andy Pettitte          11   3  4  3.81
Chief Bender           10   6  4  2.43
Red Ruffing            10   7  2  2.62 


So Pettitte played on a dominant team during the playoff era. The baseball1 database includes the 19th century NL/AA as "World Series" games.
   24. Tripon Posted: November 02, 2009 at 10:30 PM (#3374931)
Yankees sign John Lackey, to a 150 million, 4 year contract.
   25. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 02, 2009 at 10:31 PM (#3374934)
Yankees sign John Lackey, to a 150 million, 4 year contract.

Can he start tonight?
   26. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 02, 2009 at 10:44 PM (#3374955)
@22

Seems like overkill, but sure. The point, of course, is that no one in their right ####### mind would ever mistake Andy Pettitte's mediocre ass for a HOFer.
   27. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 02, 2009 at 11:28 PM (#3375026)
"And then the decapitated head should be stabbed in the neck."

Who does your decapitating? A decapitated head doesn't HAVE a neck!

And I should know.
   28. JPWF13 Posted: November 03, 2009 at 12:15 AM (#3375057)
@22

Seems like overkill, but sure. The point, of course, is that no one in their right ####### mind would ever mistake Andy Pettitte's mediocre ass for a HOFer.


what about those who vote for Jack Morris?

But because his lifetime ERA of 3.90 would be the highest of any pitcher in the Hall of Fame, Morris has struggled to garner more than 50% support on the ballot with 75% necessary for election. Pettitte’s lifetime ERA is 3.91.


League average when Morris pitched: 4.10
League average when Petitte has pitched: 4.54

IF Petitte (or Morris) had Morris' innings, at Petitte's ERA/ERA+
then he'd be a legit HOF candidate
   29. Bourbon Samurai in Asia Posted: November 03, 2009 at 12:18 AM (#3375060)
Stab the currently headless body in its neck. And then drop kick the head.
   30. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 03, 2009 at 12:25 AM (#3375068)
It is not implausible that there are writers who having publicly painted themselves into a corner on the PEDs issue are now looking for this generation's HOF candidates that can be passed off without too much explaining.
   31. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: November 03, 2009 at 01:49 PM (#3375973)
Who does your decapitating? A decapitated head doesn't HAVE a neck!


Do you go through the jaw when you are doing your decapitations? Might not be very long, but a decapitated head would generally have a little neck attached to it I would think.

There's a Norse story wherein Loki is being the sly little trickster he is wont to be and he ends up losing a bet (or something like that, not sure of the details). The winner gets to take Loki's head as payment, but Loki wriggles out of it, by saying that the victor (whoever it was) may have his head, but the victor cannot touch Loki's neck. So no beheading of Loki.

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