I choo choo choose Murphy!

If Murphy turns out to be only as good as Mattingly, Sam's going to be awfully disappointed.

If Murphy turns out to be only as good as Mattingly, Sam's going to be awfully disappointed.

LOL. Man, I'm going to take some gargantuan crap around here if Murphy flops, aren't I???

Ah, well. I'll deserve it. And while I'm at it, may as well keep adding to the ammunition of the critics, eh?

Murphy will end up with both a higher career OBP, and a higher career SLG, than Don Mattingly. Now, those (especially the slugging) may not be actually as good/valuable as Mattingly once you adjust for era (Mattingly's .471 career SLG was compiled mostly in the '80s, after all), but in raw numbers, Daniel will end up higher than .358 OBP and .471 SLG.

Now, as for defense, that's a whole other story . . . Murphy still has to show he can handle a position -- any position -- at a major league level. The only one he's played a substantial number of games in the minors is the one David Wright happens to be handling for Los Mets, so . . . I hope he spends as much time working on his defense in LF this spring as he apparently does on his hitting. Because there's certainly a lot more room for improvement there . . . .

Sam, I've been rooting for you two crazy kids as much as anyone, but when Bill Madden takes your side it's like watching Michael kiss Fredo all over again. Its not going to end well.

The Mets have signed Livan Hernandez. For some reason.

I love Murphy and his approach at the plate, but Mattingly certainly had a better history than Murphy at the same stage in their careers.

Mattingly
18 A- .349 .444 .488 932
19 A .358 .422 .498 920
20 AA .316 .384 .433 817
21 AAA .315 .378 .437 815
22 AAA .340 .437 .597 1034
22 MLB .283 .333 .409 742
23 MLB .343 .381 .537 918

Murphy
21 RK/A- .212 .312 .300 612
22 A+ .285 .338 .430 768
23 AA .308 .374 .496 870
23 MLB .313 .397 .473 870


I think .358/.471 sounds about right for Murphy's career. I'd take it. That being said, I hope he hits more than 99 HRs during his age 27-34 years. And I always forget how quickly Mattingly's power vanished. 99 HRs in 4211 ABs during those years. I bet his body wouldn't have broken down so bad if he didn't eat all of those steroids early in his career.

LIVAN HER-#######-NANDEZ, PEOPLE!

g--damn is nannied? geez.

LEVSKI WAS FINALLY RIGHT ABOUT LIVAN AND THE METS!!!!!!!!!!

In all seriousness, I once said that Omar would never sign/acquire Livan for anything more than a small contract. I was right about that.

Normally, I wouldn't care about a low-risk, low-cost move like this but there's very little upside to this move at all. Livan is toasty.

Murphy won't slug .471 in his career. He doesn't have that kind of power.

Of Murphy, I will say that whatever his statistical upside is, I like his chances of reaching it, given his focus and work ethic. I don't know if that is Mattingly, but I am optimistic that it means hitting well enough to handle indifferent defense at the position he lands.

Luis Castillo, Mets' lead-off hitter?! I really hope Jerry is kidding.

#### me gently with a chainsaw.

I think .358/.471 sounds about right for Murphy's career. I'd take it.

Wow, I would be very happy. I really like Murphy a lot, but I do think it is probable that he ends up closer to Todd Walker level (.350/.440).

I have hopes that he'll be better than this, and wouldn't rule him out of playing first base in the future. But I am scared that he will end up lost without a position, not a good enough hitter for left or first, not a good enough fielder for the infield.

Sam, I've been rooting for you two crazy kids as much as anyone, but when Bill Madden takes your side it's like watching Michael kiss Fredo all over again. Its not going to end well.

I keep going back and forth on whether it's worse to be Fredo or Michael in that analogy. Better not to think about it.

Murphy won't slug .471 in his career. He doesn't have that kind of power.

Just to pick a name at random (and I really did do this pretty much at random, having clicked on the Phillies because they finished first in the NL East last year), Jayson Werth has a career SLG of .451, having hit 57 HR in 1611 PAs in his career. That's basically just shy of three seasons worth of PAs, so call it about 20 HRs per "season." And Werth has a lot less doubles power (66 career doubles in those PAs) than Murphy does. Werth is also a career .265 hitter, whereas I see Murphy as a .300+ hitter, which will also help his SLG. I see no reason why, in the modern game, Murphy can't pull consistent .475 SLG out of being a 15-20 HR, 40+ 2B, .300 hitter who also holds down the outs by drawing a ton of walks.

Rusty Greer slugged .478 by being a consistent .300+ hitter, lots of doubles, and 15-25 homeruns. Also tacked on a bunch of walks.

That's my Murphy dream.

The Mets have signed Livan Hernandez. For some reason.

He's old and he's Spanish. Duh.

Wow, I would be very happy. I really like Murphy a lot, but I do think it is probable that he ends up closer to Todd Walker level (.350/.440).

I have hopes that he'll be better than this, and wouldn't rule him out of playing first base in the future. But I am scared that he will end up lost without a position, not a good enough hitter for left or first, not a good enough fielder for the infield.

I think that's overwhelmingly likely and I think Todd Walker is a great comp. The Mets have said theyre not using him at 2B, which is probably for the best since scouts dont think he can play there. So he's basically a .275/.350/.440 1B or LF... and that... sucks.

I really dont get the love for this guy - and there is a massive amount of love for him. There are lots of guys around with this skillset.

EDIT: Another possible comp - Frank Catalanotto but worse in the field

The Mets have signed Livan Hernandez. For some reason.

Besides the old part -- poor Omar just can't break his bad habits completely -- there is the argument that having spare arms stashed in Buffalo is not a bad thing, given the inevitable breakdowns that come in the long season, and the real questions about whether Niese and Parnell are ready (and for me, about whether Parnell is any good or ever will be). As it stands, the Mets have Garcia, Redding, Niese, Parnell, and now Hernandez as possibles for the fifth slot, and as guys who can move in if/when one of the other four need some time on the DL. Call me a raging pessimist, but that seems about right, and Hernandez seems about right for the # 9 option in the rotation.

Another retread for the pitching staff... begs the question: Is Omar the latino Dan Duquette?

So he's basically a .275/.350/.440 1B or LF... and that... sucks.

Well, I wouldn't say that it sucks. Such a player has value on the bench, especially if he can play second and third when needed. Replacing the Marlons, Newhans and SuperJoes with Daniel Murphy makes your team better. (Actually, if I look very far into the future, I can see Murphy doing some Magadan-style quality pinch-hitting)

And if those are the career numbers, then you would hope that he's hitting .370/.460 in his prime years, and although not the 35 homeruns you want out of your corner positions, it is pretty solid work of the Sean Casey or Todd Zeile variety. As a Met fan I have seen people like Rico Brogna, Roger Cedeno, Shawn Green, Timo Perez, Doug Mientkiewicz, and Alex Ochoa win fulltime jobs at corner positions, so I am not going to hastily condemn an 800 OPS corner hitter with the flippant assumption that I can cheaply and easily find better.

Another retread for the pitching staff... begs the question: Is Omar the latino Dan Duquette?

Better than the latino Jim Duquette, who actually put Scott Erickson in the opening-day rotation.

I really dont get the love for this guy - and there is a massive amount of love for him. There are lots of guys around with this skillset.

Look at the trend line of those BAs and especially those OBPs as he has (a) moved up the ladder in the Mets' organization, and (b) gained experience:

21 RK/A- .212 .312 .300 612
22 A+ .285 .338 .430 768
23 AA .308 .374 .496 870
23 MLB .313 .397 .473 870

Even though the competition has presumably gotten tougher, as Murphy has developed, learned his trade, figured out what he can and can't do (and what works for him and doesn't), his results have gotten progressively better. Much better. His ability to work deep counts and lay off pitches he can't handle is -- contrary to your claim -- NOT a skillset lots of guys have, and it's a skillset that translates very well into success. If you watched Murphy last year, you would have seen the approach he has obviously been working on (it was pretty apparent in almost every PA, really), and the intelligence of it combined with the sweetness of the swing itself should, I think, explain why he's a guy you really want to see make it big.

Hey, I think Nick Evans is a platoon player, Robert Parnell is a reliever masquerading as a starter, and Eddie Kunz is a bust (at least so far). So it's not like I go ga-ga over every Mets' prospect. But Murphy is gold.

As a Met fan I have seen people like Rico Brogna, Roger Cedeno, Shawn Green, Timo Perez, Doug Mientkiewicz, and Alex Ochoa win fulltime jobs at corner positions, so I am not going to hastily condemn an 800 OPS corner hitter with the flippant assumption that I can cheaply and easily find better.

Those guys all sucked, too!

If he's a part timer and pinch hitter, that would be great. A large amount of people think he'll be starting somewhere... for reference see the article above...

I see that .275/.350/.440 as more of his peak, frankly... as a good frame of reference PECOTA has him for .263/.327/.405 for 2009, his age 23 season. I gotta tell, you for a guy with pretty limited defensive value to hit that in his age 23 season... well, what we're looking at here is not to be confused with a good baseball player. Or Don Mattingly. Especially not to be confused with Don Mattingly. If that is his PECOTA for age 23... well, the odds are extremely stacked against him ever hitting .3xx/.370/.460 in his career.

His best quality is that he's cost controlled for the next few years, cheap and has option years remaining. His skillset is eminently replaceable. There's probably a guy like him in 2/3rds of the minor league systems in baseball. How hard is it to find a guy who can hit .270/.336/.410 (His CHONE) and play bad defense at 2B and average/above average defense at LF? A large amount of guys who will play in AAA all year in 2009 could do that or better it, IMO.

EDIT: This isnt to say he has no value... he's better than a replacement player, but not by all that much and his performance in 09 is certain to be nowhere near the expectations Ive been hearing. This guy isnt some diamond in the rough...

Look at the trend line of those BAs and especially those OBPs as he has (a) moved up the ladder in the Mets' organization, and (b) gained experience:

Yes, Im looking at those numbers and what strikes me is his ARL. Those numbers are against guys younger than him and not really that impressive in context once translated properly... which is why none of the major projection systems are at all fooled.

His MLE for 2008 cumulative between all minor league levels was: .238/.290/.370

EDIT: Everyone knows ARL = Age Relative to League, right? I know this isnt a prospect heavy discussion board...

I see that .275/.350/.440 as more of his peak, frankly... as a good frame of reference PECOTA has him for .263/.327/.405 for 2009, his age 23 season. I gotta tell, you for a guy with pretty limited defensive value to hit that in his age 23 season... well, what we're looking at here is not to be confused with a good baseball player.

Hate to burst your bubble, but he hit to an .870 OPS in his age 23 season. Sorry, try again.

Hate to burst your bubble, but he hit to an .870 OPS in his age 23 season. Sorry, try again.

Yes, youre right. Thanks for correcting me. PECOTA is projecting him for that terrible line in his age 24 season... The ages havent been fixed on BP's PECOTA cards yet.

Oh, yeah... sorry to burst your bubble.

Are you guys sharing a bubble bath?

Are you guys sharing a bubble bath?

It was a possibility, but he got a little snarky... so now the candy store is closed.

alskor, I'm well aware of the projections, and have a healthy respect for them. But I'm also capable of making my own independent judgments based on observations of performance, which is part of the fun of trying to enjoy the game in this day and age with the statistical POV in mind. Can you spot the guys who might just be outliers, about whom PECOTA or ZiPS miss the mark? Daniel Murphy is a classic example of this: a case where I believe the projections are a step (or three) behind his development curve, and a lot of the data that is causing him to be seen as a mediocre player reflects his prior weak performance in A ball. I happen to think that is largely irrelevant to assessing the player/prospect he is right now -- Murphy simply has developed into a far different, and better, hitter. When I saw his AA numbers, I wondered WTF was going on. Then seeing him in the majors (not the actual success he had, but the approach), it became clear to me what was going on, and I became a believer. It was for real, and he would be a quality hitter.

Eventually, Murphy will either have enough good data to turn the projections around, in which case I'll say I told you so (but I'll do it gently, in good humor), or he won't, in which case I'll never hear the end of it. Either way, it'll certainly mean a lot more to Daniel Murphy than it does to any of us . . . .

alskor, I'm well aware of the projections, and have a healthy respect for them. But I'm also capable of making my own independent judgments based on observations of performance, which is part of the fun of trying to enjoy the game in this day and age with the statistical POV in mind. Can you spot the guys who might just be outliers, about whom PECOTA or ZiPS miss the mark? Daniel Murphy is a classic example of this: a case where I believe the projections are a step (or three) behind his development curve, and a lot of the data that is causing him to be seen as a mediocre player reflects his prior weak performance in A ball. I happen to think that is largely irrelevant to assessing the player/prospect he is right now -- Murphy simply has developed into a far different, and better, hitter. When I saw his AA numbers, I wondered WTF was going on. Then seeing him in the majors (not the actual success he had, but the approach), it became clear to me what was going on, and I became a believer. It was for real, and he would be a quality hitter.

Eventually, Murphy will either have enough good data to turn the projections around, in which case I'll say I told you so (but I'll do it gently, in good humor), or he won't, in which case I'll never hear the end of it. Either way, it'll certainly mean a lot more to Daniel Murphy than it does to any of us . . . .

Its not even that really... I expect Murphy to beat his projections. As I said, he's a useful player. BUT if he cant play 2B (which by most accounts he can't) where does his bat and glove fit? I hate him in LF or 1B... he'd have to be a much better defender in LF than what Im expecting to make it worthwhile. So, in my scenario he's basically, as you say, a bench guy who can fill in places. I dont see what's to get excited about there... Im aware you dont agree with the premise of the article above comparing him to Mattingly, but post-hype, where does he fit with what he brings to the table?

In a perfect world, I would love it if the Mets had the luxury of taking a year and putting Murphy at 2B in Buffalo to learn the position. Being more optimistic about his bat than you, I think he would be an .850 OPS (.400 OBP/.450 SLG*) second baseman, and that would be a guy whose defense you'd live with even if it was below-average. But they need his bat in 2009 in the majors, and they can't afford the defense at 2B as it would be without the year of training in AAA. It wouldn't be just run-of-the-mill "below average" -- I strongly suspect it would be intolerable at a middle-infield position, and I wouldn't take that risk.

So I think the bat plays for this year in a platoon with Tatis. In that role, I think he'll hit plenty enough to handle the offensive responsibility of a corner OF. After that, there'll be time enough to see what he really brings to the table. If he validates what he did in 2008 with more of the same, then you can look at him for the full-time LF job, or for Delgado's job. If he comes back down to Earth and looks like a bench or role player, then adjust accordingly. Since they don't have to make a decision now, based on the limited data, then we don't have to, either. Let's see what he does to either prove or disprove the projections.


* - As I said above, I think Murphy is capable of an even higher SLG than that, but if you put him at 2B, the wear and tear of that position is going to take away some from his offense.

I can't help but think that Murphy has 'tweener written all over him - glove can't carry a middle infield position, bat can't carry LF or 1B. I do think he'll be a useful bat off the bench, and he very well may have a few peak seasons as a league-average starter at LF or 1B, but I'd be surprised if he turns out to be more than that. As a Mets fan, I'd be pleasantly surprised, but still - predictions of his greatness strike me as premature. Though Sam makes a reasonable case.

Young players actually improve, on occasion, as well.

One thing to realize about Murphy is that his ML numbers last year were almost entirely against RHP -- 138 PA vs. 13 PA which is an almost unheard of split these days. Now he raked in those 13 PA but assuming he would have shown the typical split, even if an 870ish OPS is his true talent against RHP, he'd have been posting something like a 720 OPS against LHP and end up with an overall OPS around 820.

I assume PECOTA et al are projecting him against a fairly standard RHP/LHP mix which would explain some of the difference.

Anyway, Murphy's job this year is to put up an 800-820 OPS while getting about 75-80% of his PA against RHP and he should have a pretty good shot at that.

And folks are under-rating a 790 OPS. There were 95 guys who played 75% of their games in the OF and got 300+ PA last year, and 790 is pretty much the midpoint. Yes, that includes a lot of CF (but PI doesn't do what I want to isolate LF/RF) but crudely adjusting for that, that would still be about 36th out of 60. In short, there are maybe a handful of teams who wouldn't gladly hand 400-600 PAs to a 790 OPS corner OF. There were 18 corner OFs with 300+ PA who put up OPSs of 750 or worse. 790 from a corner OF is nowhere near "sucks" or "replacement level."

Heck, there were only 26 players who spent 75% of their time at 1B and had 300+ PA -- baseball is a funny game -- and 6 of them put up a 750 or worse OPS. Make it 30 games at 1B and at least 100 PA (anywhere) and you still get just 48 and 18 of those were 750 or worse. And holding down the #30 slot on that list -- our good friend Doug Mientkiewicz and his 753 OPS. I don't want to overplay it too much -- at the team level, the median 1B is 809 and only 4 teams did worse than 750. But still, a 750 OPS is around the bottom end of starting 1B, not freely available. (I suppose backup 1B are something of a dying breed so maybe those aren't so different these days.)

Really, folks need to poke around in these numbers more to bring themselves back to reality. Plus you find all sorts of entertaining tidbits in here like Miguel Cairo's 37 starts at 1B!

Yes, youre right. Thanks for correcting me. PECOTA is projecting him for that terrible line in his age 24 season... The ages havent been fixed on BP's PECOTA cards yet.

Oh, yeah... sorry to burst your bubble.

Point being that you said:

I see that .275/.350/.440 as more of his peak, frankly... as a good frame of reference PECOTA has him for .263/.327/.405 for 2009, his age 23 season. I gotta tell, you for a guy with pretty limited defensive value to hit that in his age 23 season... well, what we're looking at here is not to be confused with a good baseball player.

Which sounds an awful like you're confusing your computer game with real life, in which Murphy excelled in the big leagues in 2008.

We know what PECOTA says. If you don't have anything of value to add to what PECOTA says, please do not waste our time by posting.

.400 OBP/.450 SLG

.400 OBP ?!

I thought citifield was supposed to be a pitcher's park - not coors mk 2.

Seriously -number of players with a Marcel projection of a .400 OBP or higher - 3. Chone - 8 (including Nick Johnson and 4 others <=.406). Ok, a fairer comparison is players either side of .400:

This gives:
Helton, Berkman, Ortiz, manny , arod, or mauer, manny, nick johnson, ortiz, d-wright.

Personally I do not expect Murphy to be about the 15th best hitter in the majors next year.

People, pitchers and catchers are in camp -- put down the Chone/Marcel/PECOTA computer games.

Which sounds an awful like you're confusing your computer game with real life, in which Murphy excelled in the big leagues in 2008.

In 150 PA with over 90% of those PA with the platoon advantage. His MLB numbers tell you virtually nothing about how he'll do.

And, since you're on your high horse, all you've contributed to this thread are his MLB numbers which (1) we all know better than his projections and (2) are pretty much useless for the reason noted above ... so please do not waste our time by posting.

In 150 PA with over 90% of those PA with the platoon advantage. His MLB numbers tell you virtually nothing about how he'll do.

And, since you're on your high horse, all you've contributed to this thread are his MLB numbers which (1) we all know better than his projections and (2) are pretty much useless for the reason noted above ... so please do not waste our time by posting.

Nothing quite like a guy on his high horse telling other people about their high horses. Thanks for contributing to the discussion, though. That was truly profound.

Murphy is to Sam, what Ludwick was to me last year.

I understand what Sam is saying and may not agree with him, but I think that projection systems inherently don't have any scouting bias so they just go off a formulas and history, but there are people that occassionally have breakout years that could have been predicted if you would have trust the coaches and scouts.

I can't help but think that Murphy has 'tweener written all over him - glove can't carry a middle infield position, bat can't carry LF or 1B.

What I don't understand is why you don't take a guy like this, and turn him into your backup at four different positions. David Wright needs a day off? Play him at third. You're sick of looking at Luis Castillo? Play him at second. So forth. Get him around 400 PAs, but not as an everyday starter anywhere.

LEVSKI WAS FINALLY RIGHT ABOUT LIVAN AND THE METS!!!!!!!!!!

I'm always right about _______ and the Mets, where
_______ = El Duque, Shawn Green, Livan, Eric Byrnes

Personally I do not expect Murphy to be about the 15th best hitter in the majors next year.

Get yer nose out of yer spreadsheet and actually watch a baseball game

And folks are under-rating a 790 OPS. There were 95 guys who played 75% of their games in the OF and got 300+ PA last year, and 790 is pretty much the midpoint. ... 790 from a corner OF is nowhere near "sucks" or "replacement level."

Thank you. This was my point above when I listed the crappy corner starters in recent Mets history. People on this site are quick to judge an 800 OPS hitter as unacceptable for first or leftfield, and I think that they are out of touch. Teams frequently do much worse than that.

In a perfect world, I would love it if the Mets had the luxury of taking a year and putting Murphy at 2B in Buffalo to learn the position.

Too bad guys like Abreu, Burrell, and Dunn signed such big deals...what's that? Thanks Omar.

What did Murphy hit in Aug and Sept?

A .790 OPS isn't anything to sneeze at, especially during the time that player is cheap, as long as it's accompanied with average or better defense. Can Murphy play an acceptable LF? That's another question that needs to be answered this year.

A .790 OPS corner OF could be pretty useful if he played good defense. That seems unlikely but I'd say it's still too early to say what kind of defense Murphy can play since he just made the conversion.

The point about Murphy getting to face RHP's almost exclusively in his time in the majors is well taken. His minor league stats (.850 OPS v. L and .881 OPS v. R) are encouraging but probably too small a sample to be taken seriously.

Anyway, I guess I'd have to put myself in the "you're getting too excited about Murphy" camp but, hey, I am curious to see what he can do over a full season with semi-regular playing time.

btw, (albeit non-important) reason to think that he can reach that SLG number is that the new Citifield is *big* and likely to play as an extreme pitcher's park.

To a large extent, I'm with Sam on Murphy. He has improved at a rate greater than one would expect of a player his age, so the projection systems are a step behind where he actually is. He was a smart, confident, disciplined hitter in the major leagues last season. I'm not quite as confident that he can be an .850 OPS hitter next season and if his defense doesn't improve, he could be marginal at LF in 2009. I'd love to put him at 2b to stack the deck in his favor. But in time, his bat will play anywhere in the field.

Murphy certainly looked like he knew what he was doing at the plate in his time with the Mets. I can't deny that. I just don't know if he has enough raw power to slug .450 unless he hits .300 and it just isn't that easy to hit .300 consistently.

I think Russlan's latest handle highlights some silliness on the Mets part--iirc the club has spent over $4m trying to firm up the fifth spot in the rotation, while 2b seems to be a much bigger hole. What would Durham get today--about $2m?

As for Murphy, he's exactly the kind of cheap guy anyone but the Yankees roll the dice on: good numbers in his first go around, respectable minor league record, good work habits... I think Murphy, Niese, Redding, and Castillo are going to give us some interesting stories this season.

And folks are under-rating a 790 OPS. There were 95 guys who played 75% of their games in the OF and got 300+ PA last year, and 790 is pretty much the midpoint. ... 790 from a corner OF is nowhere near "sucks" or "replacement level."

The guys who hit <.800 OPS are usually excellent defenders... ie. CFers playing out of position. Im totally fine with that and I think teams arent taking advantage of that possibility. Good defensive corner OFers dont need to hit THAT well to be a plus. You dont need "corner bats" - that's been debunked.

Im just not clear on what kind of defender Murphy will be - which is why I qualified it with that above.

People, pitchers and catchers are in camp -- put down the Chone/Marcel/PECOTA computer games.

That's beautiful. Im not sure there is anything I could have said that would have made my point as well as you saying that.

I guess it is almost time for me to leave my mother's basement and watch one or two actual games. Then I could see what great strides Murphy has made that are going to allow him to overcome the Powerball-bad odds of him becoming the hitter you think he is.

That's beautiful. Im not sure there is anything I could have said that would have made my point as well as you saying that.

I guess it is almost time for me to leave my mother's basement and watch one or two actual games. Then I could see what great strides Murphy has made that are going to allow him to overcome the Powerball-bad odds of him becoming the hitter you think he is.

That's a good call. Since what PECOTA says doesn't count, and it was silly of you to act like its guess about Murphy's 2009 proves anything. PLAY BALL!

And for the record, I've never ventured a prediction about what kind of hitter Murphy is. I just get annoyed by bad arguments and say so.

I've never paid much attention to PECOTA simply because I have no way of verifying whether a black box system is accurate for a certain kind of player. In fact, I really don't know why anyone here ever brings up a system with unpublished components as an offer of proof at all. It's so unscientific an appraoch it beggars credibility.