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Thursday, March 27, 2014

Major League Baseball unveils state-of-the-art replay center | MLB.com

377 out of 50,000 calls. Do we really need instant replay?

Among the most impressive parts of the presentation were the statistics MLB compiled which showed how few “clear and convincing incorrect calls” were made by umpires in 2013. By MLB’s reckoning, there were only 377 out of some 50,000 that merited review. Only 27 times did it happen twice in a game. On just three occasions, it happened three times, never against the same team.

Linked fixed: Sorry, Jim.

Jim Furtado Posted: March 27, 2014 at 09:01 AM | 22 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: instant replay, rules

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   1. Lassus Posted: March 27, 2014 at 09:11 AM (#4677703)
bad link
   2. McCoy Posted: March 27, 2014 at 09:34 AM (#4677714)
A 4 man crew working 162 shifts a year with each member getting paid a 6 figure salary. There shouldn't be more than a dozen "clear and convincing incorret calls" and there really shouldn't even be any.
   3. Pat Rapper's Delight Posted: March 27, 2014 at 09:43 AM (#4677715)
By MLB’s reckoning, there were only 377 out of some 50,000 that merited review. Only 27 times did it happen twice in a game. On just three occasions, it happened three times

I can only imagine how much better those numbers would look without C.B. Bucknor and Angel Hernandez.
   4. Ulysses S. Fairsmith Posted: March 27, 2014 at 11:07 AM (#4677771)
. . . there really shouldn't even be any.


And when there is one, lots of radio talkers should complain that the umpire in question should be fired.

Because everyone else gets fired if they make even one mistake on the job.
   5. McCoy Posted: March 27, 2014 at 11:52 AM (#4677799)
Because everyone else gets fired if they make even one mistake on the job.

A clear and convincing error for an ump is a major screwup and lots of people get fired over one major screwup. Plus the umps doubled down on their major mistake by not fixing the mistake right there and then.

Hey chef, seven people died from eating your chicken tartare. Well, everyone makes mistakes. Try not to do it again, okay?
   6. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: March 27, 2014 at 12:16 PM (#4677814)
A clear and convincing error for an ump is a major screwup and lots of people get fired over one major screwup. Plus the umps doubled down on their major mistake by not fixing the mistake right there and then.

Hey chef, seven people died from eating your chicken tartare. Well, everyone makes mistakes. Try not to do it again, okay?


Seven people dieing is so far above and beyond the level of screwup that a single clear and convincing error is that your entire post is junk.
   7. McCoy Posted: March 27, 2014 at 12:20 PM (#4677815)
Yep, a throwaway line at the end of my post makes everthing else junk. How about this? Your one sentence post is junk.
   8. Adam G Posted: March 27, 2014 at 12:31 PM (#4677818)
I work as a stock broker and I can guarantee that if I made a mistake on 377 out of 50000 trades, I'd be fired. I would be fired after probably the second or third mistake... even if those mistakes don't ultimately cost the firm money or the client money, each mistake has the *potential* of costing the firm of the client money. Similarly, each mistake an umpire makes has the potential of altering a game or an outcome, even though most do not.

I have no problem with MLB trying to reduce the rate of mistakes. The implementation might not be ideal, but I'm all about giving it time to see how it works, how it's tweaked, etc.
   9. Greg Franklin Posted: March 27, 2014 at 12:32 PM (#4677820)
AP has more photos of the center, and the Globe and Mail headline even uses the American spelling. Cool workstations!

Link
   10. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: March 27, 2014 at 12:42 PM (#4677825)
I work as a stock broker and I can guarantee that if I made a mistake on 377 out of 50000 trades, I'd be fired.


Maybe being a baseball umpire is harder than being a stock broker.
   11. Non-Youkilidian Geometry Posted: March 27, 2014 at 01:11 PM (#4677835)
Maybe being a baseball umpire is harder than being a stock broker.

Exactly. A lot of people seem to assume (a) that the current umps could make fewer mistakes if only they tried harder; and/or (b) that if they were fired their replacements would do a better job. Either or both of these things might be true, or at least true in some cases (*ahem*: C.B. Bucknor), but we don't have much reason to be confident of this.

It seems to me that a lot complaints about the umps are similar to criticisms of hitters for swinging at breaking balls out of the zone or pitchers for not throwing strikes. Some mistakes just can't be corrected by greater exertion of effort, and as much as the guy in the stands might think he could do better that's rarely the case.
   12. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 27, 2014 at 01:15 PM (#4677840)

Because everyone else gets fired if they make even one mistake on the job.


There should be an 80 game suspension for the first offense, and a season-long suspension for the second offense.
   13. McCoy Posted: March 27, 2014 at 01:30 PM (#4677850)
Exactly. A lot of people seem to assume (a) that the current umps could make fewer mistakes if only they tried harder; and/or (b) that if they were fired their replacements would do a better job. Either or both of these things might be true, or at least true in some cases (*ahem*: C.B. Bucknor), but we don't have much reason to be confident of this.

It seems to me that a lot complaints about the umps are similar to criticisms of hitters for swinging at breaking balls out of the zone or pitchers for not throwing strikes. Some mistakes just can't be corrected by greater exertion of effort, and as much as the guy in the stands might think he could do better that's rarely the case.


This might be easier to believe if pretty much everybody involved in baseball didn't think umpires were as a whole an out of control arrogant bunch of employees who think they don't answer to anyone and people have viewed them this way for decades. It would also help if a bunch of them weren't fat either.
   14. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: March 27, 2014 at 01:40 PM (#4677860)
Maybe being a baseball umpire is harder than being a stock broker.

Or maybe it's much easier. "50,000 calls" comes out to more than 20 per game. There aren't 20 calls that "merit a review" in *any* game, so this number is obviously inflated by those of the runner-was-out-by-six-steps variety, for which no credit is deserved.

When a runner is out by a half-step, that's super-obvious to the naked eye, so imagine what percentage of genuinely marginal non-ball/strike calls they must actually be getting wrong if we can expect there to be two overturned *per day*.
   15. Sunday silence Posted: March 27, 2014 at 01:54 PM (#4677870)

Hey chef, seven people died from eating your chicken tartare. Well, everyone makes mistakes. Try not to do it again, okay?


worst analogy of the week; or maybe just today.
   16. Lassus Posted: March 27, 2014 at 02:08 PM (#4677879)
Chicken tartare sounds vaguely gruesome. And I've eaten raw meat in Ethiopian kitfo more times than I could possibly count.
   17. flournoy Posted: March 27, 2014 at 03:06 PM (#4677885)
Or maybe it's much easier. "50,000 calls" comes out to more than 20 per game. There aren't 20 calls that "merit a review" in *any* game, so this number is obviously inflated by those of the runner-was-out-by-six-steps variety, for which no credit is deserved.


This is spot on. I've often seen numbers to the effect of umpires getting 99% of their calls correct. What goes unsaid is that perhaps 95% of their calls are so obvious that having an umpire at all is completely unnecessary.
   18. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: March 27, 2014 at 03:16 PM (#4677889)
Maybe being a baseball umpire is harder than being a stock broker.

Or maybe it's much easier.


I dunno, do you really know anybody who makes correct market analysis for their clients 99% of the time?
   19. Hank G. Posted: March 27, 2014 at 03:17 PM (#4677891)
I work as a stock broker and I can guarantee that if I made a mistake on 377 out of 50000 trades, I'd be fired.


Are you counting the times you actually make a decision, such as recommending a specific stock? If so, I don’t believe you.

If you are talking about getting orders correct, so what? That’s not what umpires do.
   20. PreservedFish Posted: March 27, 2014 at 03:37 PM (#4677900)
I work as a stock broker and I can guarantee that if I made a mistake on 377 out of 50000 trades, I'd be fired. I would be fired after probably the second or third mistake... even if those mistakes don't ultimately cost the firm money or the client money, each mistake has the *potential* of costing the firm of the client money. Similarly, each mistake an umpire makes has the potential of altering a game or an outcome, even though most do not.


Wait, what type of mistakes are we talking about? I would have thought that stock trading would be one of the world's most mistake-laden professions, the type of game where the guys that are right 54% of the time are the winners.

Also, there's a terrific Japanese restaurant in Berkeley CA that has chicken tartare on the menu. It's pretty good. Only place I ever recall seeing it. I suppose nobody has gotten really sick yet, as I think that would be a prominent news item pretty quickly.
   21. madvillain Posted: March 27, 2014 at 03:40 PM (#4677904)
I dunno, do you really know anybody who makes correct market analysis for their clients 99% of the time?


It's great getting paid to play casino games.
   22. MikeTG Posted: March 27, 2014 at 06:51 PM (#4678035)
So by MLB's numbers, about 1 out of every 7.2 games had at least one call meriting review in 2013. ~2 games/day on days with a full regular season slate.

Once the dust settles I hope we get a lot less highlight footage of arguing managers and more discussion of which managers use their challenges well and who the most often overturned umpires are.

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