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Saturday, December 16, 2017

Many moving parts to potential Zack Greinke trade

The danger in posting a two-day-old trade-rumor story is that it may have evaporated two days ago.  But the Rangers have been so quiet this winter (big acquisitions have been Doug Fister and somebody named Chris Martin whom I assume is not the Coldplay guy or the Jets’ running back) that I have to have something to muse about.

After walking around all off-season with their pockets turned out, the Rangers have engaged the Arizona Diamondbacks about right-hander Zack Greinke, the former Cy Young winner who is owed $126.5 million over the next four years.

It doesn’t take a math major to get the numbers right. That’s an average just under $32 million a season for a starting pitcher who is still regarded as one of the game’s best.

The math gets fuzzy thereafter, as the Rangers would need Arizona to take on the contract of Shin-Soo Choo and probably still have to eat some of what is owed to Greinke. The size of that chunk could fluctuate depending on if the Rangers add prospects and the quality of those prospects.

I don’t know if I like this idea.  I love my Shin-Soo Choo T-shirt and don’t want it to become obsolete.

BDC Posted: December 16, 2017 at 09:55 AM | 11 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: diamondbacks, rangers, trade rumors

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: December 16, 2017 at 04:23 PM (#5593804)
That would seem a strange trade for Arizona. They're fresh off a WC and 93 wins and Greinke is coming off a 4-WAR, 200 inning season. I understand wanting to get out from under the money owed but Choo is owed $62 M and they'd expect the DBacks to pick up even more money? Rangers would be getting Greinke on a 4/$64 contract or cheaper. Lousy defense, declined bat, 1B obviously blocked, Choo is of no use to the DBacks. Makes no sense at all unless some GREAT prospects are headed AZ's way.
   2. BDC Posted: December 16, 2017 at 05:14 PM (#5593824)
Lousy defense, declined bat, 1B obviously blocked, Choo is of no use to the DBacks

Desperate as the Rangers have been recently for first basemen, they have never given Choo an inning there, and he has never played 1B at any level. This surprises me, but as I have sometimes said, there are certain players who just don't relate well to playing in the infield and are never tried at 1B, no matter how awkward and left-handed they may be.

Choo is still fast enough in a straight line (12/15 in stolen bases last year) but he's a terrible outfielder anymore.
   3. Quaker Posted: December 16, 2017 at 05:30 PM (#5593829)
Curtis Martin
   4. BDC Posted: December 16, 2017 at 05:36 PM (#5593831)
Curtis, so it is. WTH do I remember his name as Chris. But WTH do I remember anything these days? :-D
   5. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: December 16, 2017 at 06:10 PM (#5593840)
Tomas in LF and Choo in RF would be a truly brutal defensive outfield.

Man, that Choo contract is beyond terrible. Greinke might be overpaid, but he's at least within an order of magnitude to what he's actually worth.

Texas should absolutely do Choo for Greinke without any cash coming over, but the Dbacks shouldn't. Asking Arizona to pony up additional money is just obscene.
   6. Ziggy: The Platonic Form of Russell Branyan Posted: December 16, 2017 at 08:21 PM (#5593876)
Greinke pitched 32 games last year. Assume about 100 pitches per start. That comes out to $10,000 per pitch. That's bonkers. And yet Greinke is still worth his contract. (6.3 bWAR last year) There's crazy silly money in this game.

And no, the snakes should not trade Greinke for Choo.
   7. A triple short of the cycle Posted: December 17, 2017 at 11:14 AM (#5593970)
I love my Shin-Soo Choo T-shirt and don’t want it to become obsolete.
You can still wear it, BDC. Here in Oakland it's all too common to see fans wearing jerseys of players who are no longer on the team.
   8. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: December 17, 2017 at 11:32 AM (#5593976)
I have no idea why the Diamondbacks would be trading Greinke without getting some real value in return; maybe the Dodgers are hard to catch, but the Diamondbacks are a decent team and Greinke is one of the few pitchers left in the game who reliably gives you 200 innings a year, often quite good ones. And yet the Cardinals and the Yankees also have rumors floating around about their interest in him.
   9. Walt Davis Posted: December 17, 2017 at 07:36 PM (#5594111)
the Cardinals and the Yankees also have rumors floating around about their interest in him.

I can see why AZ would want to get out from under the contract (I thought it was over-priced when it was signed, it seems unlikely to get better as he ages) so I'm sure there's a deal to be made if they want one. It's just that the proposed Choo deal would make no sense from their perspective, it wouldn't even save them a ton of money. Trading him to a team willing to afford him or that will give you back prospects in exchange for eating some money is a different story -- might still be a bad trade but at least it's not crazy on the surface.

A reasonable comp might be the Verlander trade. The Astros got 2+ years while a team here is getting 4, with Greinke a year younger. According to b-r, Detroit had to eat $16 M and got back some solid but not top prospects -- although the kid pitcher probably has the potential to become a top starter. The money effectively means the Astros are paying 2/$40 for Verlander, a very nice deal. If AZ has to get Greinke down to 4/$80 to get prospects back ... well, that's a lot of money to eat and I think I'd just suck it up and try to win during Goldschmidt's window. But surely they don't have to get him all the way down to 4/$80 do they? (Anybody know if Greinke has a NTC?)
   10. cardsfanboy Posted: December 17, 2017 at 07:49 PM (#5594115)
And yet the Cardinals and the Yankees also have rumors floating around about their interest in him.

Really? Everything I've read on the Cardinals indicates they are done with starting pitching, that they are still looking at another impact bat and relief pitching (with Donaldson and Colome being the names put out there)
   11. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: December 17, 2017 at 08:50 PM (#5594134)
Upon a second look, what I actually saw was a blog post that was like, "Hey, why not?" Not an actual rumor.

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