Funny that Jeff Kent didn't make the list of long-playing 2B. Tex is signed through 2016, at which point Cano will still be too good to move off 2nd.

Cano has way more power than Carew did.

Cano has the bat to carry the position, but with Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira signed to thousand-year contracts, it’s hard to imagine him playing there in the Bronx any time soon, even if he wears down in the middle of the field.

Cano will only be 33 when Teixeira's contract ends, assuming there is a need to move him off 2nd by then. That still leaves DH for A-Rod.

Good question. Cano looks like he is in fantastic shape and he might have the bulk to handle the beating that 2nd base dishes out. His bat is obviously awesome and will play any where for a while. If they have to shift him to LF or 3b or something down the line, he should have the bat and arm for those positions for a long time. I think it will be a long, long time before Cano is limited to first. I say sign him. He's a better bet than donkey face and way more likeable that ICR. I don't much care how smart of a move it is.

@2: yes, but Carew played in an age where the majority of players were singles slappers that never drew a walk, from an OPS+ POV Carew is still quite frankly the better player, but not being a better player than Rod Carew isn't exactly a damning statement. If Cano holds up well he should easily be a comparable player to Jeff Kent (and probably less hated, even while being a Yankee)

For a long time, one of the Yankees’ greatest strengths has been how good they are at judging their own players.

Riggght... Austin Jackson and Tyler Clippard says hi, and they were also sorta / kinda wrong about Melky Cabrera (at least the post Braves version)

Riggght... Austin Jackson and Tyler Clippard says hi, and they were also sorta / kinda wrong about Melky Cabrera (at least the post Braves version)

It's not like they dumped Jackson or Cabrera. They traded Jackson for Curtis Granderson, and Cabrera for Javier Vazquez after getting Granderson. And a lot of people outside of NY were pissed that they got Vazquez for Cabrera.

he's a fine player, but i'm not sure how much power he'd retain if he weren't playing half his games in a stadium with an absurdly short power alley in RF.

he's a fine player, but i'm not sure how much power he'd retain if he weren't playing half his games in a stadium with an absurdly short power alley in RF.

Cano has either opposite field (fastballs, mainly) or dead pull (breaking balls) power. He probably uses the RF power alley less than any lefty on the Yankees.

Tex and Granderson, on the other hand . . .

he's a fine player, but i'm not sure how much power he'd retain if he weren't playing half his games in a stadium with an absurdly short power alley in RF.

Looking at Cano's page on hit tracker, he really hasn't benefited from NYS too much. He picks up a couple HRs a year at NYS, but not more than that.

Cano is also a guy with a lot of line drive power to all fields. Put him in Petco and he will hit more doubles and triples. I'm really not buying the argument that a guy who hits the ball as hard to the opposite field as Cano is a product of the new stadium.

he's a fine player, but i'm not sure how much power he'd retain if he weren't playing half his games in a stadium with an absurdly short power alley in RF.

Cano's Home/Road Career OPS splits are .853/851. He is .346/.384/.575 at Fenway Park though.

Cano's Home/Road Career OPS splits are .853/851. He is .346/.384/.575 at Fenway Park though.

cano's career home split also includes his years playing in old yankee stadium.

his career batting line at new yankee stadium is .314/.364/.549, for a .913 OPS.


that's not entirely fair, though. he's a better hitter now than when he was playing at old yankee stadium, so his away split during the years he's played in new yankee stadium should also improve.

Cano has way more power than Carew did.

Yes but a good chunk of that is era difference ... and of course Carew had that extra-sparkling BA. It also depends somewhat [which Carew you're talking about ... EDIT]

Carew 27-32: 354/420/482, 153 OPS+ (part 2B, part 1B)
Cano 27 -29: 312/368/540, 139 OPS+

The raw OPS's are practically identical and of course we'd prefer the higher OBP.

As to context, league SLG for Cano is 421, lgISO of 155; for Carew 384 and 121. So Carew had a slightly above-average ISO in this period -- which is still well behind Cano.

As a hitter but keeping it to 2B/3B/CF (roughly equal positions in Rpos terms), other mediocre-BB but good power comps (27-29) may be:

Brett (334/400/553 but 163 OPS+)
Puckett (342/373/515, 139)
J Hamilton (315/372/543, 137)
ARam (301/358/559, 129)
Alomar (320/386/493, 126)

Cano (as a hitter) as a LHB Puckett/ARam strikes me as about right. I'm guessing lots of folks would be stunned to see he has nearly identical numbers to Hamilton.

I wasn't making an assertion, really, about their relative quality as hitters. Mostly I was noting that their styles were very different, and I think they tend to get compared because they're Afro-Hispanics who play second base, not because of any substantive similarity. It's true that there's a context difference, but it's also true that Cano has way more power. His career high in HR is 29. Carew's is less than half that. In fact, Cano's career low is the same is Carew's career high. They're not particularly similar as hitters at all.

Simply comparing to left handed hitters, and completely ignoring position, here are some interesting possible comps
based on

Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers,
From 1901 to 2012,
Younger than 30,
Bats LH,
requiring PA<=6500, and At least 3500 plate appearances),
onbase_plus_slugging_plus>=110, onbase_plus_slugging_plus<=131,
HR>=120,
BB<.6*SO
sorted by greatest Adjusted OPS+

Report Link

Condensed Table:



I'd be careful with an extension here. A lot of sharp cliffs, falloffs in those comps.

For those that want to ignore pre peak performance in their analysis, here is a report on similar type criteria for just ages 27-29

Report Link

Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers,
From 1901 to 2012,
From Age 27 to 29, Bats LH,
(requiring onbase_plus_slugging_plus>=130, onbase_plus_slugging_plus<=148,
HR>=60, HR<=100,
BB<.65*SO
At least 1500 plate appearances),
sorted by greatest Adjusted OPS+

Condensed Table



Still seeing lots of cliff

cano's career home split also includes his years playing in old yankee stadium.

his career batting line at new yankee stadium is .314/.364/.549, for a .913 OPS.

that's not entirely fair, though. he's a better hitter now than when he was playing at old yankee stadium, so his away split during the years he's played in new yankee stadium should also improve.

From 2009 - 2011, Cano was .310/.360/.532 at New Yankee Stadium and .318/.361/.525 on the road. And .354/.390/.628 at Fenway Park. Doesn't look like there is much of a case that Cano's power numbers are significantly inflated by NYS.

However, it shows that if Cano was a career Red Sox he'd probably won a few MVP by now :P

Still seeing lots of cliff

I'm only seeing one on that list.

Cano is the player I thought Todd Walker would be.

I just want zop to do the Dave Cameron thing.

Carew basically stopped playing 2B after his age-29 season.

I wasn't making an assertion, really, about their relative quality as hitters. Mostly I was noting that their styles were very different, and I think they tend to get compared because they're Afro-Hispanics who play second base, not because of any substantive similarity.

I think Cano was a lot more like Carew* when he came up. His 2006 season (.342 AVG, .182 ISO) reads a lot more like a Carew season than it does one of someone like Kent or Utley. People haven't quite adjusted to the idea that Cano isn't a Carew-type, which is why--as I've said before--I think you still get some media-types saying that Cano still has a chance to "put it all together."

*Not as good, but you know what I mean

I just want zop to do the Dave Cameron thing.

That joke is more used up than Amare Stoudemire's back.

That joke is more used up than Amare Stoudemire's back.

Whatever. He went to Dream School this summer so all is well.

From Shoe's list in #14, the ones that are most like Cano are Al Oliver and Cecil Cooper. Mostly because they also stand out as low walk, low strikeout hitters. Partly because they were both great in 1982, and that being the first year I seriously followed baseball, their images are firmly implanted in my memory.

According to Hit Tracker, Cano has been "gifted" two homers at YS this year. The vast majority of his homers have a "# of Parks" of 20 or better.

Several of those cliff divers had significant injury histories by the time they were Cano's age. Cano's only DL stint was a hamstring strain in 2006. The problems Parker and Strawberry had seem irrelevant - weren't Cano and Melky clubkids? - as he seems to have grown out of that scene. While he is still a secondbaseman, he's a better bet than most.

My favorite Robinson Cano fact: He was teammates with Roger Clemens. Clemens was in his 6th MLB season when Robinson's father Jose made his major league debut. OK, that's more of a Roger Clemens fact.

From Shoe's list in #14, the ones that are most like Cano are Al Oliver and Cecil Cooper. Mostly because they also stand out as low walk, low strikeout hitters. Partly because they were both great in 1982, and that being the first year I seriously followed baseball, their images are firmly implanted in my memory

.

I focused on those guys too, for the same reason, low BB low K guys. Oliver didn't hit as many homers, but not hard to imagine him doing so in 2012 Yankee Stadium/ American league.

Several of those cliff divers had significant injury histories by the time they were Cano's age. Cano's only DL stint was a hamstring strain in 2006. The problems Parker and Strawberry had seem irrelevant - weren't Cano and Melky clubkids? - as he seems to have grown out of that scene. While he is still a secondbaseman, he's a better bet than most.

Maybe. I think the main thing that stands out to me is Cano's peak hasn't been so high that we should expect an extremely high level of production once he leaves his peak ages. Guys that post up over 150-160 OPS+ and higher in their early and peak years tend to come in for a softer landing. Guys that are in the low 100's and then peak around 140 something a couple of seasons, tend to go back to the low 100's over their last 5-6 seasons, even if they play into their middle and late 30's.

and they were also sorta / kinda wrong about Melky Cabrera (at least the post Braves version)

Apparently they weren't wrong.

Yup, Melky has been suspeneded for 50 games!

Yup, Melky has been suspeneded for 50 games!

Wow. That's going to cost him a lot of money.

Are there seriously no contract guesses yet?

I'll go....5 years, $100M.

EDIT: for Cano, not Melky. Oof.

I'll go....5 years, $100M.

Too low! This is the Yankees, even under the new CBA. 6/130, with a team option for like 28 million.

Several of those cliff divers had significant injury histories by the time they were Cano's age. Cano's only DL stint was a hamstring strain in 2006. The problems Parker and Strawberry had seem irrelevant - weren't Cano and Melky clubkids? - as he seems to have grown out of that scene. While he is still a secondbaseman, he's a better bet than most.

It's always interesting to see all the different theories about why "this guy is different" when compared to a list of similar players. I think ultimately it doesn't matter why an individual cliff dived, but when you look at a collective group and see the same tendency it's something that shouldn't be just wished away.

We'll start with the position Cano plays, he's a second baseman, they have the shortest careers on average of any position on the diamond except catcher and first base. Multiple reasons why, but ultimately second baseman's careers are shorter, even among all the greats, second baseman pale in career plate appearances compared to the other positions. (lot has to do with the fact that they don't usually have the bat to move across the defensive spectrum)



To expect Cano to have a career past his age 33 season goes against tremendous amount of history at his position, and when you compare to his similar list, those who don't play his position don't have a great track record of sticking around either. He's double pronged doomed. He could be the exception, the Jeff Kent if you will, but if you have money to burn and are in vegas and can get a bookie to give you odds, take the under for 300 plate appearances from Cano in his age 34 season.