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Friday, May 29, 2009

Marchman: Trade him for Mark DeRosa

Him being Fernanchise, of course.

Still, Martinez hasn’t done anything really special in pro baseball. This year’s power display—which came attached, one notes, to a 1:3 bb:k ratio as well as to a line drive rate notably higher than his career average to date—is the first time he’s hit well since a 46-game run at Class A three years ago. You can handwave it away with talk about his age and park factors and the like, but great players usually play great baseball. And saying that a player has been young for his levels is often a polite way of saying he’s been rushed, something that won’t cripple a really first-rate talent but could leave a player just a half-notch down without the sheer, repetitious experience of high level baseball to allow him to make best use of his skills.

If Martinez is everything he might be, he’ll adjust in and to the majors even as he’s figuring out how to get into the yards, how much to tip the clubbies and just what you’re supposed to do with a check like that. But that can take a long time. (Remember that the time during which sharp Mets fans tended to think that Jose Reyes was a bit more like Cristian Guzman than Barry Larkin was measured in years.)

Given their situation, with the superb players in their primes, injuries and their many fall deaths of late, it’s really important for the Mets to get passable production out of the outfield corners, which I doubt Martinez is ready to give them. He’s the best of bad options, but he’s a bad one right now, and while he may not get off to an Escobaresque start with 19 strikeouts in 53 plate appearances or the like, things could still get ugly. I don’t know of a way to study the issue, but I’d suspect that top prospects who get their first introduction to the majors in situations where they can’t fail for big city teams at young ages are a bit less likely to develop to their full potential than other prospects, and that’s what I find worrying.

Repoz Posted: May 29, 2009 at 08:05 PM | 52 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mets

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   1. Swedish Chef Posted: May 29, 2009 at 08:21 PM (#3199079)
Marchman waving a red cape in front of wounded and enraged Mets fans...
   2. villainx Posted: May 29, 2009 at 08:22 PM (#3199085)
I guess not running out that infield pop up really was a big big blunder.
   3. JuanGone..except1game Posted: May 29, 2009 at 08:26 PM (#3199097)
Great idea! And throw in Parnell to show you mean business!

/indians fan
   4. Famous Original Joe C Posted: May 29, 2009 at 08:27 PM (#3199099)
I mean, for Mark DeRosa? No way, no chance,
For a frontline starter or a very good hitter? In a heartbeat.
   5. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: May 29, 2009 at 08:35 PM (#3199123)
For a frontline starter or a very good hitter? In a heartbeat.
{Waits for Rask}
   6. esseff Posted: May 29, 2009 at 08:36 PM (#3199133)
I guess this means the Cardinals can't expect to get DeRosa in exchange for spare parts?
   7. CraigK Posted: May 29, 2009 at 08:39 PM (#3199147)
I guess this means the Cardinals can't expect to get DeRosa in exchange for spare parts?

No, but we can get Fernando Martinez.
   8. Danny Posted: May 29, 2009 at 08:39 PM (#3199148)
Martinez:Holliday::LaPorta:Sabathia
   9. Famous Original Joe C Posted: May 29, 2009 at 08:41 PM (#3199155)
I guess this means the Cardinals can't expect to get DeRosa in exchange for spare parts?

No, but we can get Fernando Martinez.


If by "spare parts" you mean "Adam Wainwright".
   10. Tike Redman's Shattered Dreams (shayborg) Posted: May 29, 2009 at 08:47 PM (#3199181)
He’s the best of bad options, but he’s a bad one right now, and while he may not get off to an Escobaresque start with 19 strikeouts in 53 plate appearances or the like, things could still get ugly.

19 Ks in 53 PA? That's nothing.
   11. T.J. Posted: May 29, 2009 at 08:55 PM (#3199199)
This is exactly what I'm going through in Roto. I'm in the running so far, but need power. I'm trying to flip F-Mart for someone like Bradley, Soto, Uggla, or Peavy (trade risk issues).
   12. billyshears Posted: May 29, 2009 at 09:10 PM (#3199256)
Remember that the time during which sharp Mets fans tended to think that Jose Reyes was a bit more like Cristian Guzman than Barry Larkin was measured in years


Sharp Mets fans never thought this. Reyes' minor league performance blows Christian Guzman's minor league performance out of the water. There is an approximately a 300 post BTF thread on this exact topic, which I would find if I knew how.
   13. Cowboy Popup Posted: May 29, 2009 at 09:18 PM (#3199268)
Marchman never actually says trade him for Mark DeRosa in the article. That might be the most misleading headline I've ever seen and it looks like Marchman wrote the headline and the article. I don't know why Marchman did it, but he opened himself up to a whole new world of criticism he wouldn't have received (like on fangraphs) had the article been given an appropriate headline.
   14. bpasinko Posted: May 29, 2009 at 09:36 PM (#3199296)
I couldn't even get Branyan for him in a keeper league on the last place team!
   15. Van Lingle Mungo Jerry Posted: May 29, 2009 at 09:44 PM (#3199308)
Marchman never actually says trade him for Mark DeRosa in the article.

Although I don't see the link when this page opens, the "Trade Him for Mark Derosa" headline apparently refers to a Larry Brooks article which makes that suggestion. Marchman posted the following in the comments section below his own piece: "Guys, I neither think the Mets should trade Martinez for DeRosa nor necessarily endorse everything I link to!"
   16. baudib Posted: May 29, 2009 at 09:46 PM (#3199311)
I'll grant that Fernando has been massively overhyped. He is not going to be Ken Griffey, A-Rod, Willie Mays or Pujols.

Having said that, his development has been slowed by injuries, yet he's still held his own and, this year, starred in the minors while always being the youngest guy in the league. That's not a guy you trade for a 29-year-old, slightly above average corner outfielder or No. 3 starter.

Can we wait till he has at least 2,000 pro plate appearances before making harsh judgments and/or demanding more?
   17. Raskolnikov Posted: May 29, 2009 at 09:53 PM (#3199323)
Tim Marchman is a very bright man. Even bright people have really, really, stupid notions. This is one of those times for Marchman.
   18. JPWF13 Posted: May 29, 2009 at 10:01 PM (#3199327)
I'll grant that Fernando has been massively overhyped. He is not going to be Ken Griffey, A-Rod, Willie Mays or Pujols.


Hell, I'd settle for Juan Gone II
   19. GM Posted: May 29, 2009 at 10:16 PM (#3199343)
Francesspool is going on about the Mets putting Castro on the block to make room for Schneider. Somebody tell me I'm hearing this wrong.
   20. Van Lingle Mungo Jerry Posted: May 29, 2009 at 10:28 PM (#3199350)
Francesspool ... Somebody tell me I'm hearing this wrong.


Uhhh ....
   21. Bob Koo Posted: May 29, 2009 at 10:47 PM (#3199360)
Yup, other media outlets are reporting it as well. The Mets choosing Santos over Castro would be very, very dumb. But not surprising in the least, unfortunately.
   22. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: May 29, 2009 at 11:00 PM (#3199371)
There's a rumor that the pitchers don't like working with Castro.

I might be in the minority with this opinion but I don't hate the idea of trading Castro if the Mets get a legitimate asset for him. He is only signed for the rest of the year and he's an injury risk. He's better than Santos but I like Schneider as a hitter against righties and there's really not that much difference between Castro and Schneider. Santos isn't a horrible option as a backup.

Obviously, getting something significant for Castro is the hard part.
   23. The District Attorney Posted: May 30, 2009 at 12:19 AM (#3199480)
Newsday, at least, has been dropping hints ever since the Mets re-signed the guy that the organization doesn't like Castro much and would like to try to figure out a way to trade him. Outside observation doesn't exactly contradict this theory.
   24. Darren Posted: May 30, 2009 at 12:42 AM (#3199512)
Wow, I can't believe this is Marchman no Kurkjian. Park factors and especially age are really important when evaluating a player. I could go down a huge list of great players point out how much worse they were performing at Martinez's age. If he was putting up those AAA at A+, I'd be excited about him.
   25. The District Attorney Posted: May 30, 2009 at 02:34 AM (#3199698)
Gonna be hard to send Santos down tomorrow...
   26. phoenixscienter Posted: May 30, 2009 at 02:57 AM (#3199714)
Of course, all of you are assuming FMart is actually his age, which is highly doubtful...and if he's actually older than his listed age, he's far less valuable.
   27. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: May 30, 2009 at 03:01 AM (#3199718)
Of course, all of you are assuming FMart is actually his age, which is highly doubtful...


And what evidence is there that he's not?
   28. Darren Posted: May 30, 2009 at 03:05 AM (#3199721)
(Remember that the time during which sharp Mets fans tended to think that Jose Reyes was a bit more like Cristian Guzman than Barry Larkin was measured in years.)


Those crazy fans. Jose Reyes is never going to put up a 1,000-AB stretch where he bats .320+!
   29. Sam M. Posted: May 30, 2009 at 03:19 AM (#3199725)
I'm pretty certain the headline is tongue-in-cheek. He's trying to make the point that Fernando has very little short term value to the Mets, who are an extreme case of a team with a short-term perspective: lots of players in their primes, at least a couple of them probably towards the end of their best years (Beltran, perhaps Johan), a high-payroll team with high expectations, a ton of injuries creating pressure to fill short-term needs . . . . From that POV, anyone who thinks Fernando Martinez is likely to help the Mets NOW would be better off looking to trade him . . . yes, even for Mark DeRosa.

Fortunately, I am not one of those who takes the (all-too-typical) win-now-at-all-costs mentality that pervades the New York sports scene, and am perfectly content to see Fernando as part of (and not even the Savior of) the future. He is only up now to fill in on an emergency basis, until Ryan Church gets back. He gets a bit of experience, and then gets sent back to Buffalo to process it. All good, whether he gets a hit or not in the next couple of weeks. As for the future, suffice it to say I'm more bullish on it than Marchman is, especially since the performance is beginning to catch up to the potential. But I'm still not where some of the Fernanchise bunch are, so put me in the happy but not worshipful camp.
   30. denDekker, Mattsui (jemile weeks) Posted: May 30, 2009 at 03:27 AM (#3199729)
Castro to White Sox for Broadway.
   31. I Love LA (OFF) Posted: May 30, 2009 at 03:39 AM (#3199737)
This is a ridiculous article.

Martinez hasn't done really anything special? Wasn't he leading the IL in extra base hits (to say nothing about the fact that he's by far the youngest player in the league)?

.260/.344/.352 at age 17 in Gulf Coast Leauge
.268/.328/.382 at age 18 in the Midwest League
.274/.333/.421 at age 19 in Florida State League

Too bad Tim wasn't the Marlins' GM a couple of years ago. We probably could have gotten Miguel Cabrera for Ty Wigginton or something.
   32. Bob Koo Posted: May 30, 2009 at 03:39 AM (#3199739)
Sigh. But hey, Schneider/Santos is a catching platoon to die for.
   33. Orange & Blue Velvet Posted: May 30, 2009 at 03:41 AM (#3199740)
The Mets also included 1.4M in the above trade. ####### brilliant, Omar.
   34. Sam M. Posted: May 30, 2009 at 03:45 AM (#3199742)
Sigh. But hey, Schneider/Santos is a catching platoon to die for.

You know, at this point, I'm just over Ramon Castro. For all the teasing he'd do that he might be an impact bat, he just never actually provided it. How much real value was he providing, with his fragility and the increasingly obvious reality that the Mets' pitchers had no great wish to have him behind the plate?

When all he fetches in trade is Lance Broadway, I think we have our answer about Castro's value.
   35. villainx Posted: May 30, 2009 at 03:51 AM (#3199744)
Almost every time Castro had a chance to take the job, he got injured. And, maybe I should be ashamed for this, for that off the field problem, I'm glad Castro is gone.

However, the Mets have probably immediate needs that Castro just had to be a better chip for. Though maybe Sam is right, throw in 1.4 mil, and Broadway. Eeesh.
   36. HowardMegdal Posted: May 30, 2009 at 03:51 AM (#3199746)
You know, at this point, I'm just over Ramon Castro. For all the teasing he'd do that he might be an impact bat, he just never actually provided it. How much real value was he providing, with his fragility and the increasingly obvious reality that the Mets' pitchers had no great wish to have him behind the plate?

Sam, he was providing the value of hitting for a better OPS than Omir Santos entering tonight, with a better SB/CS rate, and the added bonus of a career with similar offensive numbers, suggesting he'll continue to hit, whereas Omir Santos is about 100 points lower in career OPS- in the minor leagues.

But the real shame of it is both Castro and Schneider are injury-prone at this point. When one of them got hurt... you could bring up Santos. Now, when Santos turns into a pumpkin and Schneider gets hurt again, you have... Hobie Landrith?
   37. Bob Koo Posted: May 30, 2009 at 03:57 AM (#3199749)
The Mets are saying that Schneider will play a lot starting Saturday. That's a mistake, but if they do, then why not just send Santos to AAA? He'd get regular playing time there, and then could get called up the next time someone got hurt or became ineffective.

Short-sighted moves like this are just unacceptable.
   38. PreservedFish Posted: May 30, 2009 at 04:02 AM (#3199751)
I stopped caring about Castro the day he stopped caring about blocking the plate.
   39. Sam M. Posted: May 30, 2009 at 04:03 AM (#3199752)
Sam, he was providing the value of hitting for a better OPS than Omir Santos entering tonight, with a better SB/CS rate, and the added bonus of a career with similar offensive numbers, suggesting he'll continue to hit, whereas Omir Santos is about 100 points lower in career OPS- in the minor leagues.

But Howard, your points don't really answer mine. Instead, you essentially agreed with my point about Castro's fragility, which makes his offensive value somewhat empty and unreliable. And as for defense, I will just note that as Santos has taken over more and more of the catching load, starting in late April and through the month of May, the Mets' pitching has gotten progressively better. Maybe that's because Maine has gotten stronger as he's gotten past the off-season shoulder surgery, and Pelf is getting over the tendinitis that plagued him early. Or maybe it's due in part to Santos doing good work with the pitchers behind the plate. If they have good reason to believe that, then I say go with it and leave the combination that has worked effectively in place.
   40. PreservedFish Posted: May 30, 2009 at 04:08 AM (#3199754)
He's trying to make the point that Fernando has very little short term value to the Mets, who are an extreme case of a team with a short-term perspective: lots of players in their primes, at least a couple of them probably towards the end of their best years (Beltran, perhaps Johan), a high-payroll team with high expectations, a ton of injuries creating pressure to fill short-term needs . . . . From that POV, anyone who thinks Fernando Martinez is likely to help the Mets NOW would be better off looking to trade him . . . yes, even for Mark DeRosa.


By the way, I disagree with the premise here. I suspect that you do also. The Mets are absolutely NOT an extreme short-term team by any means. They have 5 great players - Reyes and Wright are babies and will be here for the next 10 years, Santana and Beltran and KRod are all a bit older but none has shown the slightest hint of age related decline, and they all have many years left on their contracts. The 2000 Mets were an extreme short-term team. These Mets figure to be just as good in 2011 as they are now.
   41. HowardMegdal Posted: May 30, 2009 at 04:09 AM (#3199755)
But Howard, your points don't really answer mine. Instead, you essentially agreed with my point about Castro's fragility, which makes his offensive value somewhat empty and unreliable.

Unreliable? Yes, it has been. But two points about that. One, if it is unreliable, you enjoy it when you have it, and when he gets hurt, you go with Plan B, the less effective Omir Santos! This way, you have the less talented Santos, and... nothing.

But two is that for the first time in his career, Castro went out and lost 25 pounds. He was really proud of it, too. And so, surprise surprise, he's been healthy this year. He's been productive. And now they trade him, because a .650 OPS minor leaguer has had 70 good at-bats? So there's room for a catcher who never hit nearly as well as Castro, and shows signs of breaking down, can play every day? Really?

And as for defense, I will just note that as Santos has taken over more and more of the catching load, starting in late April and through the month of May, the Mets' pitching has gotten progressively better. Maybe that's because Maine has gotten stronger as he's gotten past the off-season shoulder surgery, and Pelf is getting over the tendinitis that plagued him early. Or maybe it's due in part to Santos doing good work with the pitchers behind the plate. If they have good reason to believe that, then I say go with it and leave the combination that has worked effectively in place.

Both Friday nights when my wife has had a girls' night out and I've watched the game with a copy of the NY Times instead, the Mets have won. Perhaps I should replace my wife with the Friday New York Times.
   42. Sam M. Posted: May 30, 2009 at 04:16 AM (#3199756)
Both Friday nights when my wife has had a girls' night out and I've watched the game with a copy of the NY Times instead, the Mets have won. Perhaps I should replace my wife with the Friday New York Times.

Cute. But I suspect Dan Warthen and the Mets' pitchers have some actual reason to believe that Omir Santos may actually be doing a good job in working games behind the plate, a better job than the other Mets' catchers, making his presence something more than the mere coincidence that the NY Times as your companion would seem to be.

That said, I think I join with my fellow Mets' BTFers in hereby requesting that if you can't bring yourself to replace your wife with the Gray Lady, would you at least consider having her there for a three-way when the Mets are playing? I mean, it may NOT be a coincidence, and a pennant could be at stake here.
   43. HowardMegdal Posted: May 30, 2009 at 04:20 AM (#3199757)
FWIW, pitching lines for the Mets by catcher:

Ramon Castro: .259/.336/.387
Omir Santos: .260/.335/.375

Sure hard to see that Santos edge.

And I assure you, as long as the Times publishes, and the Mets win, it will be with me on Friday nights, wife or no wife.
   44. HowardMegdal Posted: May 30, 2009 at 04:22 AM (#3199758)
Fun added note: when pitching to Castro, Mets pitchers had a lower OPS than with the starting catcher in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008.
   45. Tim Marchman Posted: May 30, 2009 at 04:47 AM (#3199768)
Guys... it was a joke. If David Wright goes 0-for-15 and I suggest trading him for Jermaine Dye and Gavin Floyd I won't mean that either.

Also, I of course take the point that Martinez not embarrassing himself while playing at very young ages in advanced leagues is hugely impressive. My point was and is that this year is the first time in three years he's done anything that's impressive in an absolute sense, that I don't think he's going to be much help to the team, and that being put in such a high pressure situation may not be the best thing for his long term development. I won't be totally shocked if he goes Hanley on the league. He's a terrific prospect! I'm just a bit skeptical.
   46. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: May 30, 2009 at 04:54 AM (#3199771)
Of course, all of you are assuming FMart is actually his age, which is highly doubtful...and if he's actually older than his listed age, he's far less valuable.

This is extremely doubtful. Teams were waiting for him to turn 16 so they could sign him.
   47. Lassus Posted: May 30, 2009 at 04:56 AM (#3199773)
Guys... it was a joke.

If you write something that you know is just going to provoke people, ESPECIALLY if you don't believe it, there's an internet word for that. (You too, phoenixscienter.)
   48. Tim Marchman Posted: May 30, 2009 at 05:00 AM (#3199776)
It literally didn't occur to me that anyone at all would seriously think I was suggesting this. I was making fun of the way people seem unable to express a hedged opinion about anything Mets-related ("Martinez is a really great prospect but I'm worried this call up may not help the team and might hurt his development a bit") and always have to go completely over the top with it ("Do you think the Cubs would give up Heilman back for him?").
   49. Lassus Posted: May 30, 2009 at 05:30 AM (#3199792)
EDIT: I have thought better of this and erased my post. It just wasn't that important. Sorry about that.
   50. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: May 30, 2009 at 05:33 AM (#3199795)
And, maybe I should be ashamed for this, for that off the field problem, I'm glad Castro is gone.


You don't like rooting for a sex offender? I don't think that's anything to be ashamed of.
   51. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: May 30, 2009 at 05:34 AM (#3199797)
I didn't think Marchman was being serious. I knew it was a joke before I even RTA.
   52. villainx Posted: May 30, 2009 at 05:46 AM (#3199801)
You don't like rooting for a sex offender? I don't think that's anything to be ashamed of.

He went through the legal system and paid the price the legal system was satisfied with. Second chance. Blah blah blah.

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