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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Friday, May 29, 2009
Him being Fernanchise, of course.
Still, Martinez hasn’t done anything really special in pro baseball. This year’s power display—which came attached, one notes, to a 1:3 bb:k ratio as well as to a line drive rate notably higher than his career average to date—is the first time he’s hit well since a 46-game run at Class A three years ago. You can handwave it away with talk about his age and park factors and the like, but great players usually play great baseball. And saying that a player has been young for his levels is often a polite way of saying he’s been rushed, something that won’t cripple a really first-rate talent but could leave a player just a half-notch down without the sheer, repetitious experience of high level baseball to allow him to make best use of his skills.
If Martinez is everything he might be, he’ll adjust in and to the majors even as he’s figuring out how to get into the yards, how much to tip the clubbies and just what you’re supposed to do with a check like that. But that can take a long time. (Remember that the time during which sharp Mets fans tended to think that Jose Reyes was a bit more like Cristian Guzman than Barry Larkin was measured in years.)
Given their situation, with the superb players in their primes, injuries and their many fall deaths of late, it’s really important for the Mets to get passable production out of the outfield corners, which I doubt Martinez is ready to give them. He’s the best of bad options, but he’s a bad one right now, and while he may not get off to an Escobaresque start with 19 strikeouts in 53 plate appearances or the like, things could still get ugly. I don’t know of a way to study the issue, but I’d suspect that top prospects who get their first introduction to the majors in situations where they can’t fail for big city teams at young ages are a bit less likely to develop to their full potential than other prospects, and that’s what I find worrying.
Repoz
Posted: May 29, 2009 at 08:05 PM | 52 comment(s)
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1. Swedish Chef Posted: May 29, 2009 at 08:21 PM (#3199079)/indians fan
For a frontline starter or a very good hitter? In a heartbeat.
No, but we can get Fernando Martinez.
No, but we can get Fernando Martinez.
If by "spare parts" you mean "Adam Wainwright".
19 Ks in 53 PA? That's nothing.
Sharp Mets fans never thought this. Reyes' minor league performance blows Christian Guzman's minor league performance out of the water. There is an approximately a 300 post BTF thread on this exact topic, which I would find if I knew how.
Although I don't see the link when this page opens, the "Trade Him for Mark Derosa" headline apparently refers to a Larry Brooks article which makes that suggestion. Marchman posted the following in the comments section below his own piece: "Guys, I neither think the Mets should trade Martinez for DeRosa nor necessarily endorse everything I link to!"
Having said that, his development has been slowed by injuries, yet he's still held his own and, this year, starred in the minors while always being the youngest guy in the league. That's not a guy you trade for a 29-year-old, slightly above average corner outfielder or No. 3 starter.
Can we wait till he has at least 2,000 pro plate appearances before making harsh judgments and/or demanding more?
Hell, I'd settle for Juan Gone II
Uhhh ....
I might be in the minority with this opinion but I don't hate the idea of trading Castro if the Mets get a legitimate asset for him. He is only signed for the rest of the year and he's an injury risk. He's better than Santos but I like Schneider as a hitter against righties and there's really not that much difference between Castro and Schneider. Santos isn't a horrible option as a backup.
Obviously, getting something significant for Castro is the hard part.
And what evidence is there that he's not?
Those crazy fans. Jose Reyes is never going to put up a 1,000-AB stretch where he bats .320+!
Fortunately, I am not one of those who takes the (all-too-typical) win-now-at-all-costs mentality that pervades the New York sports scene, and am perfectly content to see Fernando as part of (and not even the Savior of) the future. He is only up now to fill in on an emergency basis, until Ryan Church gets back. He gets a bit of experience, and then gets sent back to Buffalo to process it. All good, whether he gets a hit or not in the next couple of weeks. As for the future, suffice it to say I'm more bullish on it than Marchman is, especially since the performance is beginning to catch up to the potential. But I'm still not where some of the Fernanchise bunch are, so put me in the happy but not worshipful camp.
Martinez hasn't done really anything special? Wasn't he leading the IL in extra base hits (to say nothing about the fact that he's by far the youngest player in the league)?
.260/.344/.352 at age 17 in Gulf Coast Leauge
.268/.328/.382 at age 18 in the Midwest League
.274/.333/.421 at age 19 in Florida State League
Too bad Tim wasn't the Marlins' GM a couple of years ago. We probably could have gotten Miguel Cabrera for Ty Wigginton or something.
You know, at this point, I'm just over Ramon Castro. For all the teasing he'd do that he might be an impact bat, he just never actually provided it. How much real value was he providing, with his fragility and the increasingly obvious reality that the Mets' pitchers had no great wish to have him behind the plate?
When all he fetches in trade is Lance Broadway, I think we have our answer about Castro's value.
However, the Mets have probably immediate needs that Castro just had to be a better chip for. Though maybe Sam is right, throw in 1.4 mil, and Broadway. Eeesh.
Sam, he was providing the value of hitting for a better OPS than Omir Santos entering tonight, with a better SB/CS rate, and the added bonus of a career with similar offensive numbers, suggesting he'll continue to hit, whereas Omir Santos is about 100 points lower in career OPS- in the minor leagues.
But the real shame of it is both Castro and Schneider are injury-prone at this point. When one of them got hurt... you could bring up Santos. Now, when Santos turns into a pumpkin and Schneider gets hurt again, you have... Hobie Landrith?
Short-sighted moves like this are just unacceptable.
But Howard, your points don't really answer mine. Instead, you essentially agreed with my point about Castro's fragility, which makes his offensive value somewhat empty and unreliable. And as for defense, I will just note that as Santos has taken over more and more of the catching load, starting in late April and through the month of May, the Mets' pitching has gotten progressively better. Maybe that's because Maine has gotten stronger as he's gotten past the off-season shoulder surgery, and Pelf is getting over the tendinitis that plagued him early. Or maybe it's due in part to Santos doing good work with the pitchers behind the plate. If they have good reason to believe that, then I say go with it and leave the combination that has worked effectively in place.
By the way, I disagree with the premise here. I suspect that you do also. The Mets are absolutely NOT an extreme short-term team by any means. They have 5 great players - Reyes and Wright are babies and will be here for the next 10 years, Santana and Beltran and KRod are all a bit older but none has shown the slightest hint of age related decline, and they all have many years left on their contracts. The 2000 Mets were an extreme short-term team. These Mets figure to be just as good in 2011 as they are now.
Unreliable? Yes, it has been. But two points about that. One, if it is unreliable, you enjoy it when you have it, and when he gets hurt, you go with Plan B, the less effective Omir Santos! This way, you have the less talented Santos, and... nothing.
But two is that for the first time in his career, Castro went out and lost 25 pounds. He was really proud of it, too. And so, surprise surprise, he's been healthy this year. He's been productive. And now they trade him, because a .650 OPS minor leaguer has had 70 good at-bats? So there's room for a catcher who never hit nearly as well as Castro, and shows signs of breaking down, can play every day? Really?
And as for defense, I will just note that as Santos has taken over more and more of the catching load, starting in late April and through the month of May, the Mets' pitching has gotten progressively better. Maybe that's because Maine has gotten stronger as he's gotten past the off-season shoulder surgery, and Pelf is getting over the tendinitis that plagued him early. Or maybe it's due in part to Santos doing good work with the pitchers behind the plate. If they have good reason to believe that, then I say go with it and leave the combination that has worked effectively in place.
Both Friday nights when my wife has had a girls' night out and I've watched the game with a copy of the NY Times instead, the Mets have won. Perhaps I should replace my wife with the Friday New York Times.
Cute. But I suspect Dan Warthen and the Mets' pitchers have some actual reason to believe that Omir Santos may actually be doing a good job in working games behind the plate, a better job than the other Mets' catchers, making his presence something more than the mere coincidence that the NY Times as your companion would seem to be.
That said, I think I join with my fellow Mets' BTFers in hereby requesting that if you can't bring yourself to replace your wife with the Gray Lady, would you at least consider having her there for a three-way when the Mets are playing? I mean, it may NOT be a coincidence, and a pennant could be at stake here.
Ramon Castro: .259/.336/.387
Omir Santos: .260/.335/.375
Sure hard to see that Santos edge.
And I assure you, as long as the Times publishes, and the Mets win, it will be with me on Friday nights, wife or no wife.
Also, I of course take the point that Martinez not embarrassing himself while playing at very young ages in advanced leagues is hugely impressive. My point was and is that this year is the first time in three years he's done anything that's impressive in an absolute sense, that I don't think he's going to be much help to the team, and that being put in such a high pressure situation may not be the best thing for his long term development. I won't be totally shocked if he goes Hanley on the league. He's a terrific prospect! I'm just a bit skeptical.
This is extremely doubtful. Teams were waiting for him to turn 16 so they could sign him.
If you write something that you know is just going to provoke people, ESPECIALLY if you don't believe it, there's an internet word for that. (You too, phoenixscienter.)
You don't like rooting for a sex offender? I don't think that's anything to be ashamed of.
He went through the legal system and paid the price the legal system was satisfied with. Second chance. Blah blah blah.
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