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Rivera has had unprecedented opportunities, but he's also had unprecedented success. He never regressed to the mean in October.
"If we cherry-pick his only two failures in the first 52 times he appears in the post-season, he'd look like Armando Benitez."
Benitez had a blown save in his VERY FIRST post-season appearance.
Then he blew a save in his 4th one, his 10th one, got a loss in his 13th, and another blown save in his 15th.
That's 5 failures in his first 15 attempts.
Rivera's first failure was on his 13th appearance, and then not another failure for 38 more appearances.
*Fingers crossed*
I get to watch a lot of superstars play. When I see A-Rod, or Pujols, I think, "There's a great player, an all-time great".
When I get to see Rivera pitch, I think, "there's a LEGEND."
The shortstop says hello.
Exactly. Only Ruth, Gehrig and Mantle have represented the franchise as well. (As for DiMaggio, the Cramer book ruined that for me.)
The haters are just embarrassing themselves.
Dammit, too slow!
Perhaps you haven't noticed, but Jamie Moyer's still as good as he's ever been.
Moyer had his decline phase in his 20s when he spent most of his age 28 and all of his age 29 seasons in the minors. Since then, 234 wins, 3 top-6 finishes for the CYA, and 2 20-win seasons.
Hey, there's no rule that your decline phase has to be at the end of your career, right?
But the selfish side of me only cares that he stays un-retired long enough to get a ZiPS projection next year because I just signed him to a two year contract in our league.
Looks like Panda will be out for a month and a half too, he broke the hamate bone in his other hand.
As a legitimate query, was Chamberlain really considered a key anything at the start of the season? Or just a hopeful?
<Fart noise>
You forgot your </YES> tag.
Rivera seems like one of the classier Yankees. He is one of the most dominant pitchers of all time. I feel bad for the pain he's experiencing and I hope he recovers comfortably.
But I don't feel even the slightest bit of sadness from the thought that his career might be over.
Yes, No, Yes, Yes, and Yes. Emmitt Smith was a very good running back behind one of the greatest offensive lines ever built. Please substitute "Barry Sanders" in that quote for historical accuracy. As a Bears fan Sanders drove me crazy, but he was amazing to watch.
The guy's had a phenomenal HoF career with 5 WS rings, and earned a small fortune. There's absolutely nothing to be sad about.
Save your sorrow for the Junior Seau's of the world.
JJ Hardy, Kingslayer.
Actually, Terminator is probably a better analogy, so clearly JJ Hardy is a (poorly designed) cyborg too, an he must destroy himself to preserve the timeline.
But I don't feel even the slightest bit of sadness from the thought that his career might be over.
I would amend this statement to "slightly sad". But I would have been this sad when he retired for whatever reason. Injuries are part of the deal. I think going down like this is far, far, far better than the way Hoffman went out.
Endings of good things are sad. And I do think he's done. The way he and his team were talking was not defiance in the face of adversity. I think he may have already told them all he's done after this year. Even with rehab, he would probably come back as a shell of his former self (I would be happy to be proved wrong on all that). But even if he comes back for one more good year...he'll retire and it'll be sad if you're a fan of his.
I haven't been keeping tabs on the Yanks all that close this year. I think Robertson looks like he'll be fine as "closer" but do they have enough depth beyond that? Closer may be overrated but cut out Rivera from any bullpen and it will take a huge hit.
If you believe what they've said Pineda was sent down before they knew of any injury and Joba wasn't going to be back until June at best. The Yankees have run into some #### luck but let's not overstate them either.
Anytime a team loses a closer and just moves everyone up in the rotation I think of something Bill James wrote. Talking about the Blue Jays letting Tom Henke go and moving Duane Ward into the closer role he said (from memory here) "the guy that will be tough to replace is not Henke, it is Duane Ward." If the Yankees put Robertson as closer he will be fantastic but he's a huge weapon for them in the 7th/8th innings, that's going to be the tough part to fill.
Hughes was fantastic in that role a few years ago, and is sucking eggs in the rotation.
Does this make the Brewers Skynet?
It's a shame about Rivera. Love or hate the Yankees (and I'm more of the latter), it's sad any time a long-term, one-team player is forced off the field.
Right. But this is my wealthy and beloved 95 year old grandfather died while repairing his roof kind of sad rather than my 22 year old brother had a car wreck after getting dumped by his fiancee.
Sorry for the over-the-top hyberbole but I was trying to liken it to real life stuff. I'm a little sad and feel bad for the pain he must feel both physical and mental. But the press is going on as if it were an actual tragedy. He had a fantastic career, brought a lot of joy and is comfortably wealthy. Be a little sad for a day or two but it should be easy to move on from this.
I went to the game on Monday, and it appears I may have seen him throw his last pitch. Well, I certainly didn't that I'd be present for that unless I went to the playoffs.
I've always thought of Jeter as the de facto "favorite player" for Yankee fans. Particularly for fans who came of age with the Torre Yankees.
I've always thought of Jeter as the de facto "favorite player" for Yankee fans. Particularly for fans who came of age with the Torre Yankees.
I came of age with the late-70's Yankees, but Jeter has never been among my favorites.
My favorite players probably go Nettles, Mattingly, O'Neill, Posada, Sabathia.
Tee-hee.
Bernie here.
Since even garbage closers close out 2-run-advantage-starting-the-9th saves practically every time, Rivera's only real advantage is closing out a couple more 1 run advantage saves than a competent reliever would have.(*) That's pretty marginal in the grand scheme of things, and not remotely comparable to players like Mantle.
Rivera is also a pure product of era; as a one-pitch guy who'd failed as a starter, he would have been meh in any era pre-'95. He's obviously the best "closer" of the "closer" era, but on close inspection that billing boils down to a whole lot of not real compelling.(**)
(*) Plenty of other relievers blow 1 or 2 saves a year, or even none -- see, e.g., Valverde last year.
(**) Ray has effectively lampooned the "OMG, CAN ROBERTSON BE TEH CLOSER?????" nonsense we're about to be bombarded with, and I'll adopt his remarks.
Mo and A-Rod are my favorites. Never a huge Jeter fan.
Best tweet so far was an ESPNer (Sprow? something like that) marveling at how the Yankees have won at least 87 games every year since Rivera became closer. Um, how many if someone else was the closer?
Overall, Rivera:
- overrated for regular season impact
- underrated for postseason impact
And he was throwing extremely hard (for him) his last start. If his arm has bounced back and they stick him in the pen, he could be unstoppable. Problem is, that means you are relying on a 75 year old Andy Pettitte, David Phelps , DJ Mitchell and a group of prospects who are getting smacked around and having control problems in AAA to fill out the rotation. I like Phelps a lot because, unlike nearly every other Yankee pitching prospect, he throws strikes but I don't think he has the stuff to be an AL East SP.
I think Hughes has to stay in the starting role for a bit longer until someone with a higher upside than Phelps/Mitchell pushes him out.
Rivera is only the second reliever to have a WAR total that makes him a reasonable candidate for the HOF - Wilhelm is the other. And by WAR, Rivera is only a candidate in the gray area, he has less career WAR than Kevin Brown. By WAR, Gossage is as unworthy as Jim Rice and Sutter/Fingers are very bad jokes.
If you have an alternate value metric that you think better handles relievers, I'd love to see it. But the current WAR metric simply doesn't like relievers much at all. So again, I find it curious that you think it's overrating them. It's kind of like claiming that Fox News overrates democrats.
As to Rivera, if I had a vote he's a first ballot HOFer, and I will miss him if this is the end. Lately I've tried to make it a point to watch Rivera every chance I get. Last Monday I was busy and didn't turn on the game when he pitched against the O's. I'll regret that if it does turn out to be his final game.
Fantastic and classy adversary. Having success against him always felt especially sweet and especially earned. Wish him the best.
I think Hughes has to stay in the starting role for a bit longer until someone with a higher upside than Phelps/Mitchell pushes him out.
What happened to that Rule-5 SP they picked up? On the DL right? Any chance of him being ready soon?
I don't believe this is accurate. Pineda was placed on the DL on April 4, retroactive to March 31. He was on the active (ie, MLB) roster at the time. He was in extended spring training when the labrum tear was diagnosed. He was never sent down.
I loved reading that one. You don't have to be British to enjoy it, as long as you've seen the Austin Powers movies.
Rk Player WAR ERA+ OPS+ WPA GF SV WHIP IP From To G W L ERA1 Mariano Rivera 58.0 206 44 54.265 892 608 0.998 1219.2 1995 2012 1051 76 58 2.21
2 Trevor Hoffman 29.0 141 67 34.352 856 601 1.058 1089.1 1993 2010 1035 61 75 2.87
3 Hoyt Wilhelm 49.9 147 67 31.058 651 227 1.125 2254.1 1952 1972 1070 143 122 2.52
4 Billy Wagner 29.0 187 49 29.164 703 422 0.998 903.0 1995 2010 853 47 40 2.31
5 Joe Nathan 22.0 151 63 25.703 419 267 1.109 740.1 1999 2012 592 48 25 2.88
6 Troy Percival 17.3 146 58 23.677 546 358 1.108 708.2 1995 2009 703 35 43 3.17
7 Francisco Rodriguez 20.9 166 62 22.317 447 292 1.166 661.0 2002 2012 618 36 30 2.59
8 Jonathan Papelbon 17.9 199 49 21.541 345 228 1.013 440.1 2005 2012 407 23 19 2.29
9 Tom Henke 22.8 157 63 21.410 548 311 1.092 789.2 1982 1995 642 41 42 2.67
10 Lee Smith 30.8 132 80 21.409 802 478 1.256 1289.1 1980 1997 1022 71 92 3.03
11 Dan Quisenberry 24.3 146 80 20.844 553 244 1.175 1043.1 1979 1990 674 56 46 2.76
12 Keith Foulke 20.2 140 68 20.564 406 191 1.075 786.2 1997 2008 619 41 37 3.33
13 John Franco 24.4 138 84 19.273 774 424 1.333 1245.2 1984 2005 1119 90 87 2.89
14 John Wetteland 20.3 148 68 18.926 523 330 1.135 765.0 1989 2000 618 48 45 2.93
15 Bruce Sutter 25.2 136 75 18.342 512 300 1.140 1042.0 1976 1988 661 68 71 2.83
16 Armando Benitez 17.7 140 69 18.066 527 289 1.217 779.0 1994 2008 762 40 47 3.13
17 Jeff Montgomery 21.2 135 79 15.837 549 304 1.244 868.2 1987 1999 700 46 52 3.27
18 John Hiller 29.4 134 83 14.664 363 125 1.268 1242.0 1965 1980 545 87 76 2.83
19 Kent Tekulve 23.9 132 80 14.305 638 184 1.250 1436.2 1974 1989 1050 94 90 2.85
20 Francisco Cordero 19.3 143 76 12.819 563 329 1.341 796.1 1999 2012 764 45 46 3.21
Objectively, I completely agree that, in terms of value, Mo is not close to being the greatest Yankee.
But he's been excellent in the role assigned, classy doing and fun to watch. Hence, fan favorite. Like others, I'm not a Yankee fan, but I think Mo is awesome and am glad to have been able to watch his career closely.
I think it over-rates RPs b/c it includes leverage. It makes sense for teams to pay for their ability to leverage great RPs, but I don't think it makes sense for the pitcher to get "extra credit" b/c he was used in high LI circumstances.
If Rivera had pitched the same # of innings, with the same RA and ERA, but had been used with an LI of 1, he'd be no better or worse.
In that sense, WAR over-rates modern closers, and/or under-rates the old multi-inning closers, who were used in lower LI situations.
Actually, that may sum up his feelings quite well. If you think relievers are essentially worthless, that any old replacement level starter could be turned into a 90% success-rate closer, then you'd have to think that any metric that gives them any credit at all would be overrating them. Just as Fox News overrates any Democrat that they don't accuse of rape and murder.
Yeah, I don't want to hear any of these Rivera groupies ######## about the DH. A closer ike Mo is a designated baseball player to the nth degree.
Why the hell was your 95 year-old grandfather up on the ####### roof? What kind of worthless piece of crap grandson wouldn't take care of something like that for his dear old grandpa?
"We had the talk, and he knows to protect himself."
Which, it just so happens, is absolutely true.
Assuming you mean Cabral, no. He fractured his elbow and the most positive news I can find on him is that he might be able to pitch again this year.
I think Hughes is in the rotation until Banuelos puts it together or the Yanks make a move.
Is anyone whose opinion matters arguing that? I'm sure there are some over the top comments today from the bloodthirsty shut-ins but I don't think anyone seriously believes that. Maybe Francesa or his ilk but really, what do you expect?
Assuming you mean Cabral, no. He fractured his elbow and the most positive news I can find on him is that he might be able to pitch again this year.
No, the other one. Brad Meyers.
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jon-heyman/18957531/the-great-mariano-will-try-to-pull-off-one-more-miracle----a-2012-return
I mean, I have been to Wales. I know there are some questionable practices out there... But flies? You sick ###!
Straight for the terminator cliche...
I have to admit I didn't see that unconscious play on words and idioms there. But I nevertheless do claim it as brilliant. Even when I'm not trying to be--what an unconscious have I.
When Rivera was tried as a starter, he didn't throw the cutter - he was a 4-seamer guy. Rivera started throwing the cutter in 1997.
He's a dude I like a lot relative to reputation (and argued for his selection in the '11 Rule 5 draft as well) - but, in addition to iffy stuff (which he has great command of), he simply can't stay healthy.
The Yankees are probably my least favorite team in pro sports, but Rivera is a very likeable dude - I hope he makes it back.
Everyone has a price.
Maybe, but Oswalt never came across as a guy who would pitch until they tore the uniform off his back. I wouldn't be surprised if he sat out the whole season unless he got an opportunity that appealed to him (like Texas). I suppose the Yankees could try money whipping him, but how much do you want to overpay for the guy? He's not what he used to be...
What's the marginal value of an extra playoff series to the Yankees? Pretty high, I'd guess.
I'm sure there is a price for Oswalt but is it a price worth paying? I would dispute snapper's argument about the value of the playoff series, my guess is the Yankees need a playoff series less than most teams since they make it so often and have tremendous financial advantages elsewhere.
It seems that teams including the Red Sox have approached Oswalt and my guess is that they've offered $5-7 million for this year and been turned down. It seems to me that he wants to pitch in St. Louis or Texas or someplace like that and is content to wait it out.
Don't get me wrong, if the Yankees give him $12 million he'd probably take it but I'm not sold if they'll break the bank in such a way unless they are convinced that various contingency plans (Pettitte, Phelps, Banuelos perhaps) can't get it done.
Sure, but we're talking about a guy who's coming off an injury plagued 2011 where he put up a 105 ERA+. While that would be useful for the Yankees even if that was all he was, this isn't like getting peak Pedro or something. Seems a stretch to assume Oswalt can deliver a playoff series win.
I'm just saying if they win the division and get at least 2 home playoffs games, that's worth millions and millions of dollars.
For a good reaction try asking an Englishman if he minds tossing for you.
"That's The Million Dollar Man's music!"
Eh, I've already zoomed through all five stages to acceptance. If it's over, it's been a hell of a ride.
I was going through his coin collection.
Yes, but realistically, it increases their odds of that happening by what, 5%? That's probably optimistic. At 10m you need the return to be hundreds of millions, for it to make business sense.
I don't know. If he's worth 2 WAR in the rest-of-season, the Yankees are certainly going to be giving starts to replacement level SPs.
2 WAR could be huge in the AL.
How bout WPA?
WPA has the same problem that WAR does for relievers. The concept of in-game leverage, at least as those stats use it, is fictional.
I can't get the actual WAR calculation at BB-REF to tie to the individual components, but Rivera gets 58 WAR for saving 366 runs more than a replacement level pitcher, while Ford only gets 47.8 WAR for saving 502 runs more than a replacement level pitcher. There is something fundamentally wrong with that statistic.
Assuming you think Oswalt can give you 2 WAR over ~4 months. I'm certainly not opposed to the Yanks throwing $10-12M at the guy, but I'm not sure that'd be enough. Oswalt is only 34 years old, and while he's had some injuries and mediocre seasons recently, his track record is really strong. The guy has NEVER had a season under 100 ERA+ and was very good as recently as 2010, you have to figure that he got some decent offers in the offseason but wasn't interested. Makes me think that unless he gets an opportunity that he likes (Texas, maybe Atlanta or St. Louis), he's content to just not play.
I can't get the actual WAR calculation at BB-REF to tie to the individual components, but Rivera gets 58 WAR for saving 366 runs more than a replacement level pitcher, while Ford only gets 47.8 WAR for saving 502 runs more than a replacement level pitcher. There is something fundamentally wrong with that statistic.
I believe they multiply RP runs saved by (1+0.5(LI-1)). So, if Rivera allowed 20 runs less than a repl. level pitcher, with an avg. LI of 2.0, he'd get credit for 1.5*runs saved, or 30 RAR.
Snapper is correct, that's the basic calculation.
There is nothing fictional about leverage. Say I have two relievers named Mariano Rivera (2.00 ERA) and Charlie Brown (9.00 ERA). I use them in the 9th inning. Mo pitches when I have a tie game or a lead of 1-3 runs. Charlie pitches when I'm up by at least 6 or down by more than 3. Let's say that no matter what role I use them in, their performance does not change.
If I switch their roles, use Mo in mopup situations and Charlie with the game on the line, will I A) win more games? B) win fewer games? Or C) win exactly the same number of games?
If you think all runs are created equal, then you must answer C. And I'd love to manage against you in a sim league.
Leverage is real, but there's no reason to give the player any credit for it.
In evaluating how much you would pay for a RP, it makes sense to factor in LI, but not in evaluating how good he is, when comparing him to other pitchers.
It's like evaluating hitters by raw RBI totals.
Depends what's meant by "credit." As a purely post-hoc measure of value provided, of course a player should get credit for the context in which he changed game states.
That doesn't mean he'll do the same in the future, or that WPA last year predicts anything important next year, or that a GM should pay him for it looking forward ... but so what? Those are different questions. A lot of these first-principleish discussions break down on this fault line, which is too often blurred for inexplicable reasons.
Well, the comparison was to Whitey Ford. In a discussion of who was better, I don't see why you'd want to include LI?
It's exactly the same as evaluating hitters by RBI. The context and runs are real, and they had value for their teams, but we don't base our evaluation of players on that anymore.
Put another way, if managers had deployed Rivera differently, so that his avg. LI was 1.5 instead of 1.9, that shouldn't change our view on how good a pitcher he was.
An elite reliever can maybe be counted on converting 45/46 out of 50 save opportunities. Sure every now and again you get a Valverdesque 49-0, but even Mariano has blown about 4 a year as a reliever. And conversely, even horrible closers rarely blow more than 10 out of 50 chances.
The problem is that people look at those 4-5 extra blown saves, and treat them as if they had turned wins straight into losses, when that really isn't the case. After most blown saves, you are still playing. Tied going into the bottom half of the inning, and you are still favourites to win the game. If you are down a run or two, you still have a chance. And tied going into extras, and you are basically 50/50. So the actual cost in wins is maybe half of the blown save number...
I think you're seriously overrating the round-headed kid.
Moreover, the timing matters only if the pitching performance was separate from the injury. That's a stupid argument to make.
There is nothing fictional about leverage. Say I have two relievers named Mariano Rivera (2.00 ERA) and Charlie Brown (9.00 ERA). I use them in the 9th inning. Mo pitches when I have a tie game or a lead of 1-3 runs. Charlie pitches when I'm up by at least 6 or down by more than 3. Let's say that no matter what role I use them in, their performance does not change.
If I switch their roles, use Mo in mopup situations and Charlie with the game on the line, will I A) win more games? B) win fewer games? Or C) win exactly the same number of games?
B. Leverage is real. But the way you are describing leverage is different from the concept as it is applied by WPA and WAR.
Leverage arises from the ability to choose whether to use a player in close games versus blowouts. Performance in a close game is more valuable than performance in a blowout. However, whether that performance occurs in the first inning or the 9th inning, it is still equally valuable.
Not sure I'd rely on a Mets doctor, but he must be licensed somewhere.
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