Bumping....

jyjjy: Look, if you are determined to compare relievers against starters in terms of total value (both quality and quantity), what matters is the baseline we are measuring these guys against. For Rivera, it's approximately 1.00 R/G lower (better) than for a starting pitcher. You should read up on this -- a lot of work has been done on it, which you don't appear to be familiar with.

The point of Tango's formula is not to predict what Rivera, or any other specific pitcher, would do if he changed roles. And you certainly can't use the 17% rule, derived from players who could perform in both roles, to project the starter performance of guys who were only relievers. Our assumption has to be that such relievers (Wagner, Rivera, Hoffman)were selected precisely because they were much better suited to relieving, and would likely have a much larger reliever/starter spread if forced to start. And honestly I doubt that the reliever advantage is proportional to runs allowed, which would suggest that lousy starters would reap huge dividends while good starters benefit far less (and also that great relievers would pay a very small price for starting). Maybe Tango has research to support that, but I doubt it.

B-Ref's WAR puts Rivera at 52.7, basically interchangeable with such near-contemporaries as Robin Ventura, Jeff Kent, Tim Hudson, and Will Clark. (If you wanted to know what this has to do with him, Rivera has exactly the same B-Ref WAR as Frank Tanana.)

Is that fair? Some people would promote Kent's HOF case, and Clark is in the HOM (right? or am I confused?) More to the point, if you'd known at the start of their careers (and if they'd been precise instead of approximate contemporaries), would there be a case to draft one of those guys over the other, or would it be a toss-up? That's an open question, it seems to me. I like WAR for that: it makes you do thought-experiments, like whose career would you truly rather have. But how it values relievers is perhaps an opinion rather than a settled issu

There are HOFers aplenty near 52.7 WAR, but they're not inner-circle types at all: Billy Herman, Bill Terry, Eppa Rixey, etc.

jyjjy: Look, if you are determined to compare relievers against starters in terms of total value (both quality and quantity), what matters is the baseline we are measuring these guys against.

I am specifically not doing this. I am saying he is the best pitcher ever on a rate basis. I have never said I believe him to be the most valuable overall, the opposite in fact and repeatedly. Why we are discussing overall value at all here is a mystery to me and, again it does NOT matter if Rivera could have handled being a starter. That's the same as saying relief pitchers are not pitchers if they could not start. I find this idea baffling. He is a pitcher, he pitched. That he couldn't have done it as a starter... why does that matter? That I honestly do believe Pedro would not have responded well to the reliever role, also irrelevant. As I said before that Ruth couldn't handle catcher, also irrelevant. That Piazza couldn't play first as one would expect also irrelevant. I don't understand why this is so hard to follow. Yes you need to adjust for era, park, etc, as ERA+ already does and for position which it does not. Tango says how to do so and if he only means for what he says to be used when calculating replacement level I find his phrasing pretty curious and that the first time he even brings up the concept of replacement level is in the comment you quoted very odd. In fact he specifically says to be careful when applying it to individual pitchers and one of the reasons he gives is;

"a failed starter turned into a reliever will, by selective sampling, “improve” because he was unlucky to have failed as a starter to begin with, more likely than not"

This is the exact opposite of what you just said "our presumption has to be." He does of course refer us to The Book for more details. If anyone has a copy and wants to elucidate that would be cool.

Why? That was specifically what I meant. You played less but you were better on average. That is my whole point.

You had a lower ERA+, but that doesn't mean you were "better", for a couple of reasons.

1) Using baseball-reference's context-adjusted stats, Mariano Rivera has pitched 1,210 innings and allowed 324 runs. Pedro Martinez pitched 2,864 innings and allowed 1001 runs.

The difference between those is 1,654 innings and 677 runs. In other words, Pedro Martinez's career is equal to Mariano Rivera's career to date plus 1,654 innings at a 3.68 RA (or a 3.30 ERA, if you prefer).

To put that in perspective, Justin Verlander to date has thrown 1,510 innings with a 3.87 RA (or a 3.48 ERA), again using context-adjusted stats.

That's right, Pedro Martinez = Mariano Rivera + Justin Verlander. Pedro effectively had Mariano Rivera's career, and then tacked Justin Verlander's career onto that. Except he was actually slightly better than that in slightly more innings.

If you do the same analysis for Greg Maddux, you will find that

Greg Maddux = Mariano Rivera + 2.5 * (Justin Verlander)

or

Greg Maddux = 2 * Mariano Rivera + ~2,500 IP of league average pitching.

That's right, Maddux basically had Mariano's career, then did it again, and then tacked on 2,500 innings of league average pitching at the end. Even if you think the league average pitching has no value, surely you think that two Marianos are better than one, right?

2) The above analysis totally ignores whether it was easier to pitch in relief than as a starter. That is just if you assume that there was no added value from being able to pitch more than 1-2 innings a game, no added difficulty from going through the lineup multiple times, etc. When we know that there was.

It's easy to just look at two numbers and say which one was greater than the other. But that's not the same as saying which player was "better".

Again, not even broaching his overall value... why is this hard to understand? We are talking about RATE stats here people... this is becoming tedious.

Yes, his rate stat was higher. We agree on that point. But that doesn't mean he was better.

Esteban Yan isn't the greatest hitter of all time, either.

B-Ref's WAR puts Rivera at 52.7, basically interchangeable with such near-contemporaries as Robin Ventura, Jeff Kent, Tim Hudson, and Will Clark.

Can you compare position player WAR to pitcher WAR when it comes to career (or season) value? This is the same issue as position players vs. pitchers for MVP, isn't it? That a starting pitcher (let alone a reliever) can only contribute so much, and this is accepted in baseball.

Nobody goes around saying "A pitcher should only go into the HOF if he's man enough to pitch every other day in order to provide value comparable to a position player".

Yes, his rate stat was higher. We agree on that point. But that doesn't mean he was better.

It means he was better on average at preventing the other team from scoring. This is sorta the goal of pitching. He was better at pitching on average for his career. Unless I'm vastly misinterpreting Tango the reliever advantage does not come close to making this incorrect in the case of Rivera vs anyone who has pitched. So there you are. Either a lengthy career as a closer is intrinsically insignificant when ranking pitchers by rate stats, meaning they simply cannot enter the convo or he is the best pitcher ever at preventing the other team from scoring when he was on a pitchers mound on average. Personally I believe we have more than enough data to conclude that Rivera's performance represents his actual skill level and you need to prove the opposite to throw him out of the discussion of best on a rate basis(or that I'm wrong about how to interpret Tango's research on the topic.)

#295:
Hell, even compared to other relievers Rivera has it easy: he starts a fresh inning with the bases empty the vast majority of the time. And mostly pitches in 1 inning bursts. And typically gets to work with a lead and thus margin for error. It's bizarre the trouble people have seeing this.

Maybe not so bizarre, at least in the postseason. These are the playoff games in which Mariano Rivera relieved mid-inning, or pitched more than 1 inning, or did both.

Game 2, 1995 ALDS: Rivera enters with two outs in the 12th, man on first, Yankees losing 5-4. He pitches 3.1 innings with two singles, no walks, and 5 Ks. (YANKEE WIN)

Game 3, 1995 ALDS: Rivera enters with two outs in the 7th, men on second and third, Yankees losing 6-2. He pitches 1.1 innings with no hits or walks, and 2 strikeouts. (YANKEE LOSS)

Game 5, 1995 ALDS: Rivera enters with two outs in the 8th, bases loaded, Yankees winning 4-2. He pitches 0.2 innings, getting out of the 8th with a strikeout and allowing a leadoff single and an intentional walk in the 9th. (LOSS)

Game 2, 1996 ALDS: Rivera enters with one out in the 7th, bases empty, Yankees losing 4-2. He pitches 2.1 innings with no hits or walks, and a strikeout. (WIN)

Game 4, 1996 ALDS: Rivera starts the 7th, Yankees winning 5-4. He pitches 2.0 innings with no hits or strikeouts, and a walk. (WIN)

Game 1, 1996 ALCS: Rivera starts the 10th, game tied. He pitches 2.0 innings with 3 singles, no walks and 3 strikeouts. (WIN)

Game 4, 1996 ALCS: Rivera starts the 7th, Yankees winning 5-4. He pitches 2.0 innings with 1 walk in the 7th and 3 consecutive singles followed by 2 strikeouts in the 8th. (WIN)

Game 3, 1996 WS: Rivera starts the 7th, Yankees winning 2-1. He pitches 1.1 innings with 1 triple, 1 single, 1 walk and 1 strikeout. He allows a run, making the score 5-2 Yankees. (WIN)

Game 4, 1996 WS: Rivera starts the 8th, game tied. He pitches 1.1 innings with 2 singles, 1 walk and 1 strikeout. (WIN)

Game 6, 1996 WS: Rivera starts the 7th, Yankees winning 3-1. He pitches 2.0 innings with no hits, 1 walk and 1 strikeout. (WIN)

Game 1, 1997 ALDS: Rivera enters with two outs in the 8th, men on first and second, Yankee winning 8-6. He pitches 1.1 innings with a single, no walks and a strikeout. (WIN)

Game 4, 1997 ALDS: Rivera enters with 1 out in the 8th, bases empty, Yankees winning 2-1. He pitches 0.2 innings, allowing Sandy Alomar’s game-tying HR. (LOSS)

Game 2, 1998 ALDS: Rivera enters with two outs in the 8th, man on first, Yankees winning 3-1. He pitches 1.1 innings with a single, no walks and a strikeout. (WIN)

Game 2, 1998 ALCS: Rivera starts the 9th inning, game tied. He pitches 2.0 innings with no hits or walks and 2 strikeouts. (LOSS)

Game 5, 1998 ALCS: Rivera enters with 2 outs in the 8th, men on first and second, Yankees winning 5-3. He pitches 1.1 innings, with no hits, 1 walk and 1 strikeout. (WIN)

Game 1, 1998 WS: Rivera enters with 2 outs in the 8th, men on first and second, Yankees winning 9-5. He pitches 1.1 innings with no hits, no walks and 2 strikeouts. A run scores on a fielding error by Knoblauch. (WIN)

Game 3, 1998 WS: Rivera enters with 1 out in the 8th, man on second, Yankees winning 5-3. He pitches 1.2 innings, with 2 singles, no walks and 2 strikeouts. The first single allowed the man on second to advance to third, where he scored on Vaughn’s SF. (WIN)

Game 4, 1998 WS: Rivera enters with 2 outs in the 8th, men on first and second, Yankees winning 3-0. He pitches 1.1 innings with 2 singles, no walks and no strikeouts. (WIN)

Game 3, 1999 ALDS: Rivera enters with 1 out in the 8th, man on first, Yankees winning 3-0. He pitches 1.2 innings with 1 single, no walks and 1 strikeout (plus 1 wild pitch). (WIN)

Game 1, 1999 ALCS: Rivera starts the 9th, game tied. He pitches 2.0 innings with 1 single, no walks and 1 strikeout. (WIN)

Game 4, 1999 ALCS: Rivera enters with 1 out in the 8th, man on first, Yankees winning 3-2. He pitches 1.2 innings with 1 single, 1 double, no walks, and 1 strikeout. (WIN)

Game 1, 1999 WS: Rivera enters with 2 outs in the 8th, man on first, Yankees winning 4-1. he pitches 1.1 innings with 1 single, 1 walk and 1 strikeout. (WIN)

Game 3, 1999 WS: Rivera starts the 9th, game tied. He pitches 2.0 innings with 2 singles, no walks and 2 strikeouts. (WIN)

Game 4, 1999 WS: Rivera enters the game with 2 out sin the 8th, men on first and third, Yankees winning 3-1. He pitches 1.1 innings with no hits, walks or strikeouts. (WIN)

Game 2, 2000 ALDS: Rivera enters with 2 outs in the 8th, men on first and third, Yankees winning 3-0. He pitches 1.1 innings with a double, and no walks or strikeouts. (WIN)

Game 3, 2000 ALDS: Rivera starts the 8th, Yankees winning 3-2. He pitches 2.0 innings, with no hits or walks, 1 strikeout, and 1 batter reaching on Tino’s error. (WIN)

Game 5, 2000 ALDS: Rivera enters with 1 out in the 8th, man on second, Yankees winning 7-5. He pitches 1.1 innings with 1 single, no walks and 1 strikeout. (WIN)

Game 3, 2000 ALCS: Rivera enters with 1 out in the 8th, man on third, Yankees winning 4-2. He pitches 1.2 innings with no hits, walks or strikeouts (WIN)

Game 6, 2000 ALCS: Rivera enters with no outs in the 8th, man on first, Yankees winning 9-5 following a leadoff HR from A-Rod. He pitches 2.0 innings with a single, 2 doubles, and a strikeout. He allows 2 runs to score on a double. (WIN)

Game 1, 2000 WS: Rivera starts the 9th, Yankees losing 3-2. He pitches 2.0 innings, with 1 double, no walks, 3 strikeouts, and 1 HBP. (WIN)

Game 2, 2000 WS: Rivera enters with no outs in the 9th, man on first, Yankees winning 6-2. He pitches 1.0 innings with 1 single and 1 three-run home run. (WIN)

Game 4, 2000 WS: Rivera starts the 8th, Yankees winning 3-2. He piches 2.0 innings with a single, no walks and 2 strikeouts. (WIN)

Game 3, 2001 ALDS: Rivera starts the 8th, Yankees winning 1-0. He pitches 2.0 innings with 1 single, 1 double no walks and 1 strikeout. (WIN)

Game 5, 2001 ALDS: Rivera starts the 8th, Yankees winning 5-3. He pitches 2,0 innings, with 1 single, no walks and 2 strikeouts. (WIN)

Game 2, 2001 ALCS: Rivera enters with 1 out in the 8th, man on first, Yankees winning 3-2. He pitches 1.2 innings with 1 single, no walks and 3 strikeouts. (WIN)

Game 3, 2001 WS: Rivera starts the 8th, Yankees winning 2-1. He pitches 2.0 innings with no hits or walks and 4 strikeouts. (WIN)

Game 5, 2001 WS: Rivera starts the 10th, score tied. He pitches 2.0 innings with 2 singles, an intentional walk, and no strikeouts. (WIN)

Game 7, 2001 WS: Rivera starts the 8th, Yankees winning 2-1. He pitches 1.1 innings with 3 singles, 1 double, no walks, 3 strikeouts, 1 HBP, and 1 batter reaching on Rivera’s own throwing error. He allows 2 runs to score. (LOSS)

Game 2, 2003 ALDS: Rivera starts the 8th, Yankees winning 4-1. He pitches 2.0 innings with no hits or walks and 1 strikeout. (WIN)

Game 3, 2003 ALDS: Rivera starts the 8th, Yankees winning 3-1. He pitches 2.0 innings with no hits or walks and 3 strikeouts. (WIN)

Game 3, 2003 ALCS: Rivera starts the 8th, Yankees winning 4-3. He pitches 2.0 innings with no hits, walks or strikeouts. (WIN)

Game 5, 2003 ALCS: Rivera starts the 8th, Yankees winning 4-1. He pitches 2.0 innings with 1 single, no walks and 1 strikeout. He allows 1 run. (WIN)

Game 7, 2003 ALCS: Rivera starts the 9th, ga,me tied. He pitches 3.0 innings with 1 single, 1 double, no walks and 3 strikeouts and then inappropriately gropes the mound. (WIN)

Game 3, 2003 WS: Rivera starts the 8th, Yankees winning 2-1. He pitches 2.0 innings with 1 single, no walks and 2 strikeouts. (WIN)

Game 6, 2003 WS: Rivera starts the 8th, Yankees losing 2-0. He pitches 2.0 innings with 1 single, no walks and 2 strikeouts. (LOSS)

Game 2, 2004 ALDS: Rivera enters with 2 outs in the 8th, men on first and third, Yankees winning 5-3. He pitches 1.1 innings with 1 double, no walks and 1 strikeout. He allows 2 runs to score. (WIN)

Game 3, 2004 ALDS: Rivera enters with no outs in the 9th, bases loaded, Yankees winning 8-2. He pitches 1.0 inning, with no hits, walks or strikeouts. He allows 2 runs to score on a ground out and a sac fly. (WIN)

Game 4, 2004 ALDS: Rivera starts the 10th, game tied. He pitches 2.0 innings with no hits, walks or strikeouts. (WIN)

Game 1, 2004 ALCS: Rivera enters with 2 outs in the 8th, man on third, Yankees winning 8-7. He pitches 1.1 innings with 2 singles, no walks and no strikeouts. (WIN)

Game 2, 2004 ALCS: Rivera enters with 2 outs in the 8th, man on third, Yankees winning 3-0. He pitches 1.1 innings with 1 double, no walks and 3 strikeouts. (WIN)

Game 4, 2004 ALCS: Rivera starts the 8th, Yankees winning 4-3. He pitches 2.0 innings with 2 singles, 2 walks, 2 strikeouts, and 1 batter reaching on Clark’s error. He allows one run who will never again need to pay for a drink in Boston to score. (LOSS)

Game 5, 2004 ALCS: Rivera enters with no outs in the 8th, men on first and third, Yankees winning 4-3. He pitches 2.0 innings with 1 single, no walks and 1 strikeouts. He allows 1 run to score on a sac fly. (LOSS)

Game 4, 2005 ALDS: Rivera starts the 8th, Yankees winning 3-2. He pitches 2.0 innings with no hits or walks and 2 strikeouts. (WIN)

Game 2, 2007 ALDS: Rivera starts the 9th, game tied. He pitches 2.0 innings with no hits, 1 intentional walk, and 3 strikeouts. (LOSS)

Game 4, 2007 ALDS: Rivera enters with 1 out in the 8th, men on first and second, Yankees losing 6-3. He pitches 1.2 innings with 2 singles, no walks and a strikeout. (LOSS)

Game 2, 2009 ALDS: enters with 2 outs in the 8th, men on first and second, Yankees losing 2-1. He pitches 1.1 innings with 2 singles, no walks and 3 strikeouts. He allows a run to score. (WIN)

Game 3, 2009 ALDS: Rivera enters with 2 outs in the 8th, man on second, Yankees winning 2-1. He pitches 1.1 innings with 1 single, no walks and 2 strikeouts (WIN)

Game 2, 2009 ALCS: Rivera enters with 2 outs in the 8th, men on first and second, game tied. He pitches 2.1 innings with 1 single, no walks and 2 strikeouts. (WIN)

Game 3, 2009 ALCS: Rivera enters with no outs in the 10th, man on second, game tied. He pitches 1.0 inning with no hits or strikeouts and an intentional walk. (LOSS)

Game 5, 2009 ALCS: Rivera enters with 1 out in the 8th, men on first and third, Yankees losing 7-6. He pitches 1.0 inning with no hits, walks or strikeouts. (LOSS)

Game 6, 2009 ALCS: Rivera starts the 8th, Yankees winning 3-1. He pitches 2.0 innings with 2 singles, no walks and 1 strikeout. He allows a run. (WIN)

Game 2, 2009 WS: Rivera starts the 8th, Yankees winning 3-1. He pitches 2.0 innings with 1 single, 1 double, 1 walk and 2 strikeouts. (WIN)

Game 6, 2009 WS: Rivera enters with 1 out in the 8th, Yankees winning 7-3. He pitches 1.2 innings with 1 double, 1 walk, and 1 strikeout. (WIN)

Game 1, 2010 ALDS: Rivera enters with 2 outs in the 8th, men on second and third, Yankees winning 6-4. He pitches 1.1 innings with 1 single, no walks and no strikeouts. (WIN)

That covers 62 of Rivera's 96 postseason appearances. Many of his other appearances don't fall under the "1-2-3 ninth" formula, either. I didn't include three games (Game 4, 2001 WS; Game 3, 2009 WS; Game 1, 2011 ALDS) that were off-model.

So if we had Pitcher B who threw 2400 innings of 206 ERA+ ball, we couldn't say he was better because his rate is the same as Mo's?

What if we had Pitcher C who threw 5000 innings in his career. The middle 4800 were at 206 ERA+. The first 100 in his rookie season and the last 100 in his final season were at 80 ERA+, thus causing his ERA+ to fall below Mo's. We're going to be such slaves to rate that we can't say Pitcher C was better than Mo? Yes, I'm well aware that Mo is in fact better on average than Pitcher C, but to completely ignore quantity seems absurd. John Paciorek is the best hitter of all-time then.

Do you not understand the concept of rate stats? You can surely say those pitchers were better but no, not on a rate basis, because they simply were not. This really isn't a complex concept. Of course it sounds like you are describing starter workloads. If you have yet to adjust for position then sure those guys would be significantly better than Rivera on a rate basis as well.

Can you compare position player WAR to pitcher WAR when it comes to career (or season) value? This is the same issue as position players vs. pitchers for MVP, isn't it? That a starting pitcher (let alone a reliever) can only contribute so much, and this is accepted in baseball

True, but WAR is an attempt to form an opinion on that comparison. At the absurd extremes, everyone agrees that Rivera's career is more valuable than Jerry Hairston Jr's, but less valuable than AROD's. So where between them does he fit? It's a question every GM implicitly answers when paying or acquiring players, and as we've seen in this thread it's a pretty controversial question still.

Do you not understand the concept of rate stats?

You should try posting that Erick Aybar had a better batting average than Pujols last year and see if you receive howls of accusations that you are claiming Aybar was a better hitter.

not to get mercenary but

Robert Raiola, CPA ?@SportsTaxMan

#Yankees closer Mariano Rivera has made $159,441,825 in his reg season #MLB career. He has 608 reg season saves. That's $262,240 per save.

All those outings in which he didn't get a save were pro-bono apparently

It means he was better on average at preventing the other team from scoring. This is sorta the goal of pitching. He was better at pitching on average for his career. Unless I'm vastly misinterpreting Tango the reliever advantage does not come close to making this incorrect in the case of Rivera vs anyone who has pitched.

One problem people have with this claim is that "best rate over career" is a somewhat arbitrary combination, since career lengths vary. A lot of us think in terms of either A) who had the better career? (total value), or B) who was the best at some point in time? (peak performance over a few seasons). We all agree many pitchers had better careers, and at least a few pitchers were as good as or better than Mo over a few seasons. But for sake of argument let's accept the standard as best rate over full career.

Where does Rivera stand? Well, since 1901 he ranks 11th, behind Mathewson, Cy Young, Wood, and a few others. He's among the best, but certainly not "the" best at "preventing other teams from scoring." So you are wrong about that. Now, I assume you would argue that ERA+ is a better metric than ERA, because it adjusts for the conditions pitchers face (league level of offense, ballparks). But the point of ERA+ is to answer the question "how well would these pitchers have prevented scoring under the same conditions?" And if that is the question, then you simply must adjust for the reliever advantage. We should compare all these pitchers to the average pitcher when starting, or the average pitcher when relieving.

Let's do that for Mariano and Pedro, who happened to pitch in virtually identical park-adjusted environments (ERA of 4.51/4.55). Relievers enjoy an edge of 1.0 R/G on average, so the benchmarks would be something like 4.80 and 3.80 (the exact #s don't matter for this comparison). Rivera would be +1.59 R/G, while Pedro is +1.87, so Pedro was about .3 R/G better. Rivera is certainly among the best on a rate basis, but he isn't #1, much less towering above all others. This method provides admittedly a rough comparison, but it's the best we can do if you want to compare starters and relievers on a rate basis.

It's also worth noting that ERA+ greatly magnifies Pedro's edge. If it were calculated like OPS+, as % better than average, Mariano would be 152 and Billy Wagner 147. That gives you a more accurate sense of Rivera's advantage over other relievers.

None of GuyM's disdain for the NYY future HOFers made that press conference any less bittersweet. I am sure the farewell tour will fill you with rage all year.

None of GuyM's disdain for the NYY future HOFers made that press conference any less bittersweet. I am sure the farewell tour will fill you with rage all year.

"Blastin," what on earth are you talking about? What "disdain" have I expressed toward Rivera? I doubt you have any idea what I think of Rivera, or (for example) whether I think he belongs in the HOF. So please just speak for yourself, and stop characterizing my views....

#Yankees closer Mariano Rivera has made $159,441,825 in his reg season #MLB career. He has 608 reg season saves. That's $262,240 per save.

Adam Dunn's strikeouts have cost his teams $23,294,527.74, or $11,469.49 per whiff.

"Blastin," what on earth are you talking about? What "disdain" have I expressed toward Rivera? I doubt you have any idea what I think of Rivera, or (for example) whether I think he belongs in the HOF. So please just speak for yourself, and stop characterizing my views....

Yeah, you are an odd target for such criticism given what you have said compared to others, here at least.

EDIT: As for #316 we still have a technical disagreement on how to apply Tango's research to this question properly. If anyone of the more statistically inclined, perhaps with The Book on hand, could clarify that would be good as it is seems the only real spot we are in disagreement on.