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Monday, November 19, 2018
As part of Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto’s offseason of change, which isn’t a teardown, but it’s a reimagination of the roster, Seattle has traded talented, but at times enigmatic left-handed pitcher James Paxton to the New York Yankees in exchange for three prospects — left-handed pitcher Justus Sheffield, right-handed pitcher Erik Swanson and outfielder Dom Thompson-Williams.
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1. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: November 19, 2018 at 06:11 PM (#5789351)That said, I don't get the urge for the Mariner's to do a tear down. Did they not just win 89 games? That will get you a wildcard more often than not. And they have some very obvious holes to fill, that could get them big improvements fairly cheaply.
ETA: After just looking it up, their pythag was only 77-85. Sheesh. Didn't think it was quite that bad. But yeah, they would need those improvements most likely, heh.
Sheffield's highly regarded. #31 overall per MLB.com. Never heard of the other two.
For two years of Paxton, I'm good with this as a Yankee fan. Pitching prospects will break your heart.
As an M's fan, they were terrible and the whole first three months of the season felt like a crazy illusion. There was no chance they were winning 89 games again next year.
If I recall, through the first half or so they had the best winning percentage ever in one run games. It didn't seem sustainable, and ultimately wasn't. They could get quite the haul for Edwin Diaz though.
The Yankees have done a pretty good job (or been lucky) in recent years scouting their own prospects, and keeping the ones who could actually help (although they did once offer to include Robinson Cano in a deal). However, it's not like they are the only ones allowed to scout those players.
Let the decline and injuries begin!
Jokes aside I think it's a good trade for NY. I reckon Paxton is due for one of those Steve Stone years where it all just comes together for just one year and NY will benefit.
The most important thing is, and this is directed at YOU Andy, can he pitch in NY? Or is he going to go all Sonny Gray and then we can watch Andy's head explode....
And dat's da ding tho- can he really handle da Bronx? Jeter could. Pettitte could. Leyritz could. But dis kid? I dunno.
Frankly, the Mariners are in a terrible position, though they are going to start getting some salary relief after 2019 (Felix' $27MM plus $9MM from Juan Nicasio come off the books after 2019, and after 2020, they get $22MM off the books from Dee Gordon & Mike Leake).
A crazy idea, but if I were the Mariners, I'd trade for Alex Cobb and all of his contract (for org filler), get him to put up nice SAFECOish numbers during the 1st half of 2019, and then trade him for some halfway decent prospects (while kicking in a good chunk salary). That's they type of trade they should be making to speed up their rebuild…..
Looks like the best recent example was when they gave up Ian Kennedy and Austin Jackson in the Curtis Granderson deal (Dec 2009)...or, maybe Mark Melancon as a throwin for 2 months of Lance Berkman (2010 deadline.) It’s one helluva record.
(They’ve been kinda burned by trading bench players and seeing them blossom into All-Stars on their new teams: Cervelli, Melky Cabrera, E-Nuñez, Solarte. But I mean....that’s gonna be an occupational hazard when you have a zillion dollar payroll, even your backups are great.)
Not particularly. He's got nearly 5 full years of service time. Lots of pitchers don't establish themselves in the majors until age 25-26. (For clarity he's "30" in that this upcoming season will be his age-30 season.) Should be pretty standard for a college pitcher draftee. Taken in the 4th round of 2010 which means he got only 18 innings in the minors that year. He wasn't a Scherzer type obviously (i.e. 4th round) so he debuted at A-ball in 2011, made it to AA. Spent all of 2012 in AA. AAA in 2013 plus a cup of coffee. I don't know how much was injury rehab, service time games or performance but just 17 starts in 2014, 13 of them in the majors.
Even Scherzer was drafted in 2006, didn't really establish himself int the majors until 2009 (at 24), became FA after age 29. Paxton won't become FA until after age 31 but it's really just about 110 service days difference.
It's kind of an old-fashioned trade -- two years of Paxton's current performance for 6+ years of Sheffield's future performance.
I'd bring back Happ too, and make it three LH SPs.
Jedi Cashman: "These aren't the prospects you're looking for."
Paxton led the American League in complete games and shutouts.
I agree, bring back Happ and get an infielder and a cheap reliever.
Swanson came over in the Beltran trade as a secondary piece and did well in AA and AAA (in 2018: 121.2 IP, 2.66 ERA, 2.91 FIP, 10.28 K/9, 2.15 BB/9, .210 AVG) based mainly on a nice moving fastball that sits in the mid-90s. There’s some thought that he’s eventually headed for the bullpen because the fastball is more advanced and impressive than his secondary pitches (IIRC the Yankees had him scrap his slider as a lost cause last year) but he’s probably MLB-ready or damn close to it. He was Rule 5-eligible this offseason so I think a lot of people expected him to be moved to a rebuilding team since there wasn’t a clear-cut path for him to help the Yankees in 2019 and he’d undoubtedly have been taken given those 2018 numbers.
If Paxton stays healthy this should be a good swap all-around, and I think it was concerns about his durability that kept the Mariners asking price where it was. Several of his DL stints were due to flukey things but some guys just seem to find flukey things.
Looking at MLBTR the Mariners fans don’t seem to like the trade.
Good deal for NYY. Could easily work for Seattle (Sheffield looks good) but I'm less confident there.
He's also Canadian, so he grew up playing 1.5 months a year...
Teams don't want their starters going more than 6 anymore, unless it's a blowout.
Bullpens get tired because they refuse to let anyone pitch 2-3 innings in relief. If you did that, with an 8 man pen, they wouldn't wear down. What wears them down is needing 4 pitchers every night to get you 3 IP, instead of 1-2.
Paxton led the American League in complete games and shutouts.
Right, two complete games and one shutout.
But on further examination, I think Blastin has the right perspective. Paxton had 11 games where he logged 7 or more innings, and 11 games where he didn't even make it through 6. Kind of like the little girl with the curl, and with a so-so 108 ERA+.
Not saying that I don't like the trade, but that rotation still needs more patching up, starting with Corbin.
EDIT: And obviously re-signing Happ.
While I'm not surprised to see Mariner fans are skeptical I think fans are often unrealistic about the return on players. To get a top 50 prospect for a guy who has never qualified for an ERA title looks like a pretty good deal. Paxton is a good pitcher so it's a good get for the Yankees but I don't know what more the Mariners should have reasonably been targeting.
EDIT: And obviously re-signing Happ.
Umm, no. They're not going to sign enough guys to make CC the 6th starter. Not happening.
They will sign Corbin OR Happ, hopefully Happ. He'll be much cheaper, and is a much more consistent pitcher.
I think it's a great deal for the Yankees. What's the opposite of endowment effect?
Are you saying you are poorly endowed?
Never had any complaints.
He's also 30 in that he just had his 30th birthday.
Who has a good answer for this one?
Davos in [17].
Jackson and Kennedy for Granderson. Melancon for Berkman.
James Pazos has been a good reliever for the Mariners the last two years.
Kept (11): Dellin Betances, Brett Gardner, Ron Guidry, Phil Hughes, Derek Jeter, Aaron Judge, Don Mattingly, Thurman Munson, Andy Pettitte, Jorge Posada, David Robertson
Taken by Rule 5 or Expansion Draft (3): Brad Ausmus, Carl Everett, Willie Upshaw
Traded (24): Stan Bahnsen, Jim Beattie, Tyler Clippard, Jim Deshaies, Greg Gagne, Mike Heath, LaMarr Hoyt, Austin Jackson, Nick Johnson, Ian Kennedy, Al Leiter, Mike Lowell, Andy McGaffigan, Scott McGregor, Fred McGriff, Doc Medich, Mark Melancon, Eric Milton, Hal Morris, Mike Pagliarulo, Dan Pasqua, Eric Plunk, JT Snow, Bob Tewksbury
December 9, 1982: Fred McGriff traded by the New York Yankees with Dave Collins, Mike Morgan and cash to the Toronto Blue Jays for Tom Dodd and Dale Murray.
Of course, this isn't related to the performance (or lack thereof) of the copious amounts of medium- and lower-tier prospects they have traded away.
Given that, it makes sense to ditch Paxton now for six years of Sheffield. Who knows, maybe you can get Paxton back if he's worth paying in two years. Paxton is a bit of an injury risk (more so than most pitchers, I mean).
There were like 20 guys in all of baseball who averaged more than 6 innings a start last year.
EDIT: And obviously re-signing Happ.
Umm, no. They're not going to sign enough guys to make CC the 6th starter. Not happening.
Except that December's 6 starters often wind up being July's 3 or 4, and the chances are good that CC's knee will have given out again by then. And you never can tell when one of those offseason acquisitions will wind up performing like Sonny Gray, so it's best to have multiple options.
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There were like 20 guys in all of baseball who averaged more than 6 innings a start last year.
And if you want to win a World Series, it might not be a bad idea to have 2 of them on your team. Bullpens are reliable until they're not.
They are not starting the year with 6 full time starters. "Just in case" is a terrible use of resources. If they run out of pitchers mid year, they'll get more.
But I want them to get Corbin, and an infielder, and a reliever, I think.
Exactly.
But I want them to get Corbin, and an infielder, and a reliever, I think.
Corbin has bust written all over him. Coming off a career year. Past health problems. His velocity dropped by 1,4 MPH from 2017. Hard pass.
If you look at the contract projections (e.g. MLBTR) people are talking 6/130 for Corbin vs 3/48 for Happ. I'd much, much, much rather have Happ at those prices.
God, I've been looking at a lot on this trade, and the butt-stupid "HE'S NOT AN ACE" crowd is... I just can't. Severino is "not an ace." So... was David Price, who was awful in October, an ace before he remembered how to pitch in the middle of the Houston series?
Just get good players.
Yes. The idea that top-20 pitchers, in all of MLB, are "not aces", is asinine. To define "ace" so that there are only 5 in all of baseball is not useful.
But what people really mean is "bulldog man who doesn't smile in October and shreds his shoulder/elbow to SACRIFICE" or whatever Smoltz is always talking about.
Be better!
I don't have time now, but it would be a fun exercise to identify the best SP on every team, rank them, determine the #16 and then list all the SP who are clearly better than him. Those are the aces.
Yeah, I don't think anyone was waiting for Doc or Clemens to hit 3 years before christening them. Lincecum is a recent example.
Also, there are Aces that are born but maybe not quite made: Kerry Wood, Francisco Liriano, Andy Bynes, Ben McDonald, etc.
I think it is important to see Starters show durability/consistency, but I think it is antithetical to have to wait 4-5 years before bestowing them with elite status.
Now, that also means that a team can't just go out and get an Ace every offseason.
Mike Axosa over at RAB about the secondary guys:
RAB
Hader and Jefferies are more "Ace" than any possible "Ace" Starters Milwaukee has. They are better than most teams' "Ace"'s. I don't think any non-Brewer fans are willing to call Chacin, Miley, Chase Anderson, or Davies "Ace" pitchers. This feels like it's just a Brewer thing nowadays. Construct a rotation with a bunch of overachieving #3-4 starters in the mold of Cal Eldred, Chris Bosio, Doug Davis, Jeff Suppan, Braden Looper, Matt Garza, Chris Capuano, and Yovani Gallardo. Sure, you have the rare Ben Sheets, Zach Greinke, C.C. Sabathia, etc., but most of the time the "Ace" is a luxury the Brewers can't afford.
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