Of recent vintage, Brandon Moss and Chris Davis were very useful players who were acquired - I think, without checking - rather cheaply.

Brandon Moss' 2012 was wildly out of line with his minor league numbers and his projections. It was probably a total BABIP fluke. He struck out 90 times in 300 PA but hit .290. He's a .230 hitter in the majors with his contact rate. (Which means probably a sub-300 OBP).

Chris Davis is a possible example, though I'd like to see him put up another good season in the majors. (He was also acquired for Koji Uehara, a quality set-up man. I doubt the Yankees will be trading their #2/#3 reliever for guy like Davis.)

These guys really aren't out there in the numbers that they used to be, even a decade ago. Moneyball won.

Someone like the pre-2011 Alex Gordon would have been great to take a chance on for a desperate team with a hole and nothing to lose because they have nothing on hand -- and this isn't just hindsight. I tend to try want to see failed prospects - who were *legitimate* prospects - get as many chances as they can to work things out. Of course, for every Alex Gordon there is a...

I would have been utterly shocked if the Royals had traded away Gordon for pennies. They knew his potential. Gordon also spent 120 games in the majors between his two minor league seasons. He wasn't being ignored like a Petagine or a Phelps.

I'm not saying clubs can't find overlooked minor league talent. It happens. But it's relatively rare, especially compared to a decade or two ago, and when it does happen, it happens in November. There are a dozen or more clubs looking for bargain minor leaguers during the offseason, using statistical methods. If there's a Petagine out there, he'll be snapped up before the new year. The Yankees situation, looking for a 1B in March, is not one which you should expect to find good freely-available talent.

And not that these players are under the radar, but someone like a Jason Heyward who the organization has soured on (at least before 2012) could be acquired - not cheaply, but cheaper than the player otherwise would be. Speaking to the broader issue, I think there is a lot of value, generally, to be had by taking chances on these kinds of players, especially if they're in your organization, and either acquiring them for a discount or signing them to deals that will look very good if the player puts it all together. Less good if he does not, but then it's not a huge amount of money and it's worth the risk and certainly better than signing expensive mediocrities.

Jack Cust -- who tore up AA and AAA at ages 21 and 22 and was top 40 Baseball America twice -- doesn't fit what we're getting at here. If we're talking about players in their mid-20s and later, then yeah, I totally think you can still productively mine that scrap heap.

Val Pascucci was drafted by the Montreal Expos. Val Pascucci was drafted by the Montreal Expos in 1999. From 2004 to 2010, he had four out of five minor league seasons with an OPS of 900 or higher (interrupted by a trip to Japan), and his career mark is 874. Yet he's appeared in only 42 major league games (although to be fair, who could be expected to crack the mighty outfield the Mets have had lately?)

Hell, bringing up Calvin Pickering reminds me of another 1B to whom the Royals gave a cup of coffee, Kila Ka'aihue. KC let him play in 52 games before deciding hey, this 26-year-old who has been demolishing the high minors for three years surely can't help our 95-loss team, so let's get Scott Podsednik in there.

(Then, of course, you've also got players who did become decent major league regulars but were nonetheless quickly shuffled aside. Thinking of Kila in turn reminds me of the guy with whom he later competed on the A's, Daric Barton. Barton is currently 27 years old, was the best player on a league-average team in 2010, and I'm sure you could get him for nothing now.)

Brandon Moss' 2012 was wildly out of line with his minor league numbers and his projections. It was probably a total BABIP fluke. He struck out 90 times in 300 PA but hit .290. He's a .230 hitter in the majors with his contact rate. (Which means probably a sub-300 OBP).

Without checking again - I drafted him for my DMB team so I did look at this a couple months ago - I think the key was that the A's platooned him heavily, giving him the advantage in something like 80% of PAs.

These guys really aren't out there in the numbers that they used to be, even a decade ago. Moneyball won.

I've agreed with that. But you haven't disproved my point that there are still _some_ of these players out there. Such as Chris Davis, who I think the Yankees absolutely would give up a #2/#3 reliever for if this were 1 year ago (i.e., before Davis hit 30 HR).

Mark Reynolds was the player I was blanking on on the last page. Not that he's under the radar - he's a known quantity - but it's not going to take a hell of a lot to get him if he's on a bad/rebuilding team. If he's on a contender? Sure, it'll take more, because he could be the difference between making the playoffs and not.

I've agreed with that. But you haven't disproved my point that there are still _some_ of these players out there. Such as Chris Davis, who I think the Yankees absolutely would give up a #2/#3 reliever for if this were 1 year ago (i.e., before Davis hit 30 HR).

So you think now they'd be willing to give up Robertson for whatever the Chris Davis equivalent is?

---

Speaking of Uehara, how did he get free agency with so little service time?

But Chris Davis isn't Roberto Petagine. Petagine was freely available, you could have gotten him for, say, your 25th best prospect, or (if the timing was right) on waivers, or as a free agent. Davis would cost a solid reliever.
(Petagine isn't an ideal example - he would have been, imo, a better than league average starting first baseman ... a star among KPASTers)

Now Kila, Kila you could get for "free" and is one of the best bats available for peanuts. But, we're then talking about a guy projected to post around a league average OPS+ - as a first baseman with so-so glove. That's not special - that's what one of the better available free talents should do (a WAR or so).

I'd also cite Dan Johnson as perhaps the best "free bat" around - and even there there are scouting reasons why he's available (slider speed bat. His glove is underrated though, I think he could help some teams).

***

Reynolds signed for 6 mil this year. That, again, is a different kind of commodity.

So you think now they'd be willing to give up Robertson for whatever the Chris Davis equivalent is?

First, I don't value relievers that highly.

But I would argue that Robertson is a #1 reliever. Yes, being on a team with Rivera makes him _their_ #2 (well, to some; to me he's their #1 because I don't assume Rivera will be the same pitcher), but that's why I said _a_ #2/#3.

A #2 or #3 is someone more like Logan, Epply, or Rapada. Well, I guess they're #3s.

But even Robertson has averaged just 2 WAR over the past three seasons, so I think a Chris Davis would be worth trading him for, especially given how easy it is to find good relievers.

To be clear, there will always be under-utilized players.

First, I don't value relievers that highly.

Fair enough, but I thought you meant the Yankees would do some kind of trade, not that they should do it.

According to b-r Rivera hasn't pitched yet this spring. What is the timetable for his return?

someone like a Jason Heyward who the organization has soured on (at least before 2012) could be acquired

Are you implying that the Braves at any point soured on Jason Heyward?

Are you implying that the Braves at any point soured on Jason Heyward?

I think all he's saying is "buy low"

BRING BACK JORGE VAZQUEZ!!!!!

#111, ok, then, no, I don't think the Yankees would have traded Robertson for Davis. But I also don't think they view Robertson as a #2 -- anyone on a Rivera team will not be #1 but they tried to give him the closer job last year which said something about how they view him -- and he's also a unique pitcher because his K rate is high even for a reliever. It's about at the top of the range. So I don't think it's fair to call him a #2/#3.

Are you implying that the Braves at any point soured on Jason Heyward?

I didn't mean that they had given up on him at any point; I simply meant that they were disappointed in him. And Fredi Gonzalez's jerking around of him didn't help matters either, and was indicative of the notion that they were frustrated with him. (Either that, or it was indicative of the notion that Fredi Gonzalez sucks as a manager.) But my point was that he could be had cheaper than he might otherwise have been had for -- my point was certainly not that he could be had for nothing.

But I also don't think they view Robertson as a #2 -- anyone on a Rivera team will not be #1 but they tried to give him the closer job last year -- and he's also a unique pitcher because his K rate is high even for a reliever. It's about at the top of the range. So I don't think it's fair to call him a #2/#3.

I agree that #2/#3 is too low for Robertson (especially w/o Soriano there). But Uehara at the time of the Davis trade probably shouldn't be considered a #2/#3 either, maybe only rated a little below Robertson.

If you can get Jose Constanza in the lineup, then you've got to go ahead and do it.

12. Der_K Posted: March 06, 2013 at 06:26 PM (#4382342)

6 - Beats the Astros.

- um, no
have you SEEN the crap they are throwing out there?
their 2 favorite OF run like mo vaughn. their DH is carlos eff pena. all of their players except for altive and barnes swing at everything. and those are the only 2 guys who can field

the relief is a horror show, too

Pickering appears to have hit a wall in AAA--he repeated AAA twice and his top output there was around an .850 OPS, not nearly good enough for a guy who was going to be a career DH.

Welcome OUR world.

"Oneofus! Oneofus! Oneofus! Oneofus...!"

Speaking of Uehara, how did he get free agency with so little service time?

Like many Japanese players, it was written into his contract. According to Cot's his first contract had a clause making him a free agent after his contract ended, and his second contract had "may elect to become XX(B) free agent when contract ends".

Speaking of Uehara, how did he get free agency with so little service time?

He had a clause in his contract with Baltimore allowing him to elect to become a free agent at the end of the contract. This is standard in contracts with Japanese players.

In Uehara's case he otherwise wouldn't have been eligible for free agency until he was 40, in which case it would've made a lot more sense for him to have simply stayed in Japan.

EDI: Coke.

120 - this time, i was agreeing with you, bbc.

re 123, 124. Do these clauses ever get put into contracts for non-Japanese players? I would think that Bryce Harper type, or an escapee from Cuba would have enough leverage to get earlier free agency.

IIRC, that's how the A's got Cespedes -- contract makes him a FA after four years.

Not aware of any domestic cases, though - and you're unlikely to see it.

Anybody who is draft eligible doesn't have the leverage, and teams don't want to set that precedent.

I don't know how to predict the next Alex Gordon, but I know that I spent years trying to figure out why he wasn't having more success. I live overseas, so I didn't get to see him very often, but I absolutely loved his swing and overall batting approach. Plus, by all accounts he had a great work ethic and kept himself in incredibly good shape.

By that standard, the place to look at to find the next Alex Gordon is some guy who you can't believe isn't a star already. My money's on Eric Hosmer.

I don't know how to predict the next Alex Gordon, but I know that I spent years trying to figure out why he wasn't having more success. I live overseas, so I didn't get to see him very often, but I absolutely loved his swing and overall batting approach. Plus, by all accounts he had a great work ethic and kept himself in incredibly good shape.

Alex Gordon had a huge, weird discrepancy between his minor league and major league stats. Gordon's major league numbers in the last couple years map pretty well to his minor league numbers in the preceding seasons.

Not aware of any domestic cases, though - and you're unlikely to see it.

Isn't this part of the CBA and negotiated?

132 - I am, metaphorically, a dork in someone's basement - not working in baseball, but I think...:
Int'l and domestic signees sign Uniform Minor League Player Contracts that have the kind of auto-renewal terms we're familiar with. (Note: domestic draftees signing big league deals is now a thing of the past). Cespedes and NPB guys aren't subject to this because they meet certain age and experience criteria (the experience rules will get stricter in the future) and can sign big league deals, etc... under terms that they negotiate as individual parties.

OK, gotcha. Thanks, Der K!