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Tuesday, August 05, 2014

Marlins designate Turner for assignment, recall Flynn

The transaction is mildly surprising because of Turner’s age, 23, and his upside. The 6-foot-5 right-hander was the ninth overall pick of the Tigers in 2009. He was pushed through the Minor Leagues quickly, and he made his MLB debut at age 20 in 2011.

Wow. Do the Marlins not believe in BABIP regression? What are the trading rules for DFAs in August? Are they free to trade him to any team within the next 10 days or does he have to pass waivers first?

Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: August 05, 2014 at 06:07 PM | 40 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: marlins

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   1. Flynn Posted: August 06, 2014 at 05:00 AM (#4765308)
Woo! Back in the big leagues!
   2. zonk Posted: August 06, 2014 at 06:23 AM (#4765310)
The Cubs gotta be near the top if not the top of the waiver pile and they'd be fools not to claim him.
   3. Mike Emeigh Posted: August 06, 2014 at 06:43 AM (#4765311)
Do the Marlins not believe in BABIP regression?


When a pitcher has a high BABIP, there might not be significant regression (think Glendon Rusch).

-- MWE
   4. John Northey Posted: August 06, 2014 at 09:28 AM (#4765363)
Checking his stats, his ERA was lower than his FIP in 2012 and 2013 so saying it is BABIP related isn't unreasonable. His FIP of 4.00 is acceptable so I suspect someone will grab him. $1 mil this year and a $1 mil option for next then into arbitration thus not crazy expensive. The only real issue is roster related as I suspect he is out of options at this point thus you have to keep him up but with a 4.00 FIP he should be fine with most teams as a #4/5 starter (assuming his ERA will be around that given his past history).
   5. Dan Lee is some pumkins Posted: August 06, 2014 at 09:37 AM (#4765366)
When a pitcher has a high BABIP, there might not be significant regression (think Glendon Rusch).
Steve Woodard was another one of these guys. I kept waiting for him to turn the corner as a result of his low walk rate and decent strikeout rate, but he kept getting crushed.

   6. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: August 06, 2014 at 09:48 AM (#4765369)
I don't really get why you'd DFA him. Even if you want to trade him, doesn't this reduce your leverage significantly?
   7. zonk Posted: August 06, 2014 at 10:09 AM (#4765385)
I don't really get why you'd DFA him. Even if you want to trade him, doesn't this reduce your leverage significantly?


Seems like the problem is that the Marlins think they're in the race - I suppose they technically "are", but they're two games under .500 and don't look like a particularly good bet to get into the postseason, much less go all that far.

While Turner has been awful, not so sure I'd have done this... It also seems pretty clear at this point - considering Cabrera/Miller-Maybin and now Sanchez/Turner -- the Marlins should really stop making blockbuster deals with the Tigers.
   8. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: August 06, 2014 at 10:41 AM (#4765424)
Turner and Flynn were both acquired in the Anibal Sanchez trade. A rare failure by the Marlins front office?
   9. zonk Posted: August 06, 2014 at 10:47 AM (#4765429)
Turner and Flynn were both acquired in the Anibal Sanchez trade. A rare failure by the Marlins front office?


I'm trying to think of a Marlins trade that HASN'T been a failure... They've done a pretty good job drafting and scrap heap plucking - but it seems like they're pretty awful at trading major league talent for prospects. The Sanchez trade appears to be a bust. The Cabrera deal was an obvious flop. Derrek Lee was a waste. Just looking through the last decade or so -- is the Juan Pierre for Ricky Nolasco deal the best of the bunch?
   10. zonk Posted: August 06, 2014 at 10:54 AM (#4765437)
I guess the Reyes dump netted Henderson Alvarez... but even with Josh Johnson implosion, the Jays seem to have won that one pretty convincingly.
   11. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: August 06, 2014 at 11:07 AM (#4765452)
On one hand, Turner is still young, has top prospect pedigree, has better peripherals than performance, and was solid as recently as last year. It looks like he is healthy as his velocity has actually been better this year.

On the other hand, FIP is 4.26 over the last two years and that would work out to a 90 ERA+. That's nothing special.
   12. Accent Shallow Posted: August 06, 2014 at 11:11 AM (#4765461)
Turner's MiLB numbers don't really jump out at me. He has an excellent walk rate and . . .not much else, right?
   13. zonk Posted: August 06, 2014 at 11:18 AM (#4765472)
I know next to nothing about Turner's stuff -- but he's a big guy, apparently has good velocity, and if his BABIP is consistently poor, I'd imagine he doesn't have a whole lot of movement. The logical move would seem to be moving him to the bullpen, focus on just teaching something offspeed as a change of pace, and see if he can develop into the sort of prototypical late innings fireballer.

Like I said above - despite the fact that he's got a major league contract - I'd love to see the Cubs put in a claim. I have to assume they've got a pretty darn good waiver position and it's not like we're talking about a ton of money obligation here. Fujikawa is supposed to be back in the next day or two - so the Cubs pen is about to get a little crowded, but I think they can certainly find a spot in the pen for the rest of the year. The recent track record for reclamations makes is a no doubt move in my mind.
   14. Dale Sams Posted: August 06, 2014 at 01:20 PM (#4765593)
but it seems like they're pretty awful at trading major league talent for prospects


I'd say Beckett-Lowell for Anibal Sanchez and Hanley Ramirez was fairly successful.
   15. Walt Davis Posted: August 06, 2014 at 03:59 PM (#4765772)
The Marlins have done OK by the Cubs. Lee-Choi didn't work out but in addition to the Pierre trade there was Clement for Dontrelle (and Julian Tavarez) which worked out for both teams but saved the Marlins a good chunk of dough.

Back in the Dark Ages there was Mantei for Penny.

But, yeah, the Marlins success when they have it is almost all development, not trade.
   16. SteveM. Posted: August 06, 2014 at 04:35 PM (#4765818)
The Cubs did claim him per Rotoworld.
   17. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: August 06, 2014 at 04:40 PM (#4765829)
Schierholtz has been DFA'ed to make room.

I, too, am shocked Turner is being let go so easily. There is real potential here and the upside is tremendous given the years of remaining team control.
   18. zonk Posted: August 06, 2014 at 05:08 PM (#4765860)
Suhweet.

Probably a no brainer, but I always like when my team makes exactly the move I wanted them to make.
   19. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: August 06, 2014 at 05:22 PM (#4765877)
18--Yeah. I was hoping the entire National League would fall asleep and the Twins would claim him. Oh well.
   20. Howie Menckel Posted: August 06, 2014 at 05:25 PM (#4765880)

Marlins likely to move Brad Penny into the rotation on Saturday.

yes, really, that Brad Penny, the ex-Marlin, Dodger, Red Sock, Giant, Cardinal, Tiger, Giant again and now Marlin again.

he's looking for his 2nd ring with the Marlins, having also gotten one in 2003 (when he beat the Yankees twice in the World Series).
   21. Howie Menckel Posted: August 06, 2014 at 05:31 PM (#4765884)

actually Nate S was DFAd to make room for Fujikawa's return. they'd have to make another move for Turner.
   22. valuearbitrageur Posted: August 06, 2014 at 05:56 PM (#4765901)
he's looking for his 2nd ring with the Marlins, having also gotten one in 2003 (when he beat the Yankees twice in the World Series).


Who do you want pitching for your team in the World Series this year? An untested young pitcher or a proven champion with the ringzzzzzz?
   23. zonk Posted: August 06, 2014 at 06:12 PM (#4765914)
You have to wonder if the Schierholz DFA means we'll be seeing Soler soon, too... He's been hurt a lot of the year, but has been mashing at every stop. Thought I saw he hit another pair of homers last night.

The Cubs still have plenty of dead weight on the 40 man they can get rid without needing to eat Edwin Jackson's contract just yet -- to make room on the 40 man for Turner, my hope would be either Blake Parker or Chris Rusin. Vitters is also pointless/no one's gonna bother claiming him, I bet.
   24. zonk Posted: August 06, 2014 at 06:17 PM (#4765916)
Just curious...

Do the Cubs actually HAVE to work out a trade with the Marlins? I'm assuming if Turner was DFA'ed that equates irrevocable waivers, no? In such a case, I would think the Cubs can just wait out the waiver clock and pay the fee.
   25. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: August 06, 2014 at 06:24 PM (#4765920)
I believe that is the case. The Marlins can't send him to the minors now since he was claimed. I don't know if they could just release him outright at this point, but that would be worse for them as at least in this case the Cubs take on his entire salary as opposed to the minimum.
   26. JoeC Posted: August 06, 2014 at 06:57 PM (#4765949)
Woo! Back in the big leagues!


You're still a lulu, though. ;)
   27. Spahn Insane Posted: August 06, 2014 at 09:08 PM (#4765991)
When a pitcher has a high BABIP, there might not be significant regression (think Glendon Rusch).

Ah yeah. I seem to recall some of Cub primerdom christening him DIPSh*t.
   28. Spahn Insane Posted: August 06, 2014 at 09:12 PM (#4765994)
The Cubs did claim him per Rotoworld.

Cool!

the Schierholz DFA

Cooler! Man, it's been a long time since I've felt good about being a Cub fan, but I'm getting to that point. Things are starting to jell.

EDIT: I shouldn't say that about the Schierholtz DFA; I mean, claiming Turner obviously has a lot more potential upside than just getting rid of Nate Schierholtz. So flip my cool/cooler around.
   29. Spahn Insane Posted: August 06, 2014 at 09:13 PM (#4765995)
The Cubs still have plenty of dead weight on the 40 man they can get rid without needing to eat Edwin Jackson's contract just yet -- to make room on the 40 man for Turner, my hope would be either Blake Parker or Chris Rusin. Vitters is also pointless/no one's gonna bother claiming him, I bet.

Or Brett Jackson. Why are they still dicking around with him?
   30. SouthSideRyan Posted: August 06, 2014 at 10:59 PM (#4766049)
No need to DFA BJax until you need the spot. I have to imagine Vitters is in line for removal 1st as Jackson still has an option year remaining. Both are almost certainly gone this coming offseason.
   31. Tom Nawrocki Posted: August 07, 2014 at 12:17 AM (#4766087)
Who was it that used to claim that Nate Schierholtz was every bit as valuable as Hunter Pence? MGL?
   32. Norcan Posted: August 07, 2014 at 12:40 AM (#4766093)
In his last ever start as a Marlin, Turner seemed like a pretty frustrating pitcher to watch. He's just horrible at holding on baserunners as he's extremely slow to the plate and even average Cincinnati runners ran roughshod against him. His control wasn't bad but his command was; pitches aimed for the corners were leaking over the plate and getting crushed. He didn't seem like he had an identity. He's not a big groundball or strikeout pitcher. He's not a big stuff guy (topped out at around 92 with just average secondary pitches) who projects highly if only he can harness his stuff. The best thing he has going for himself is his draft/prospect pedigree. Still, for a fungible minor league prospect, I guess he would be worth a shot. Maybe they have him go to the side-step with runners on base or position him differently on the rubber so he can get to the outside corner with more margin for error against righties.

The Miguel Cabrera deal seemed to end the trade fortunes for the Marlins. They had been really good at identifying minor league talent in other systems before then. They had gotten Dontrelle as part of the Matt Clement deal. Brad Penny was in the haul for Matt Mantei. Burnett came for Al Leiter.
   33. Sweatpants Posted: August 07, 2014 at 12:47 AM (#4766095)
Who was it that used to claim that Nate Schierholtz was every bit as valuable as Hunter Pence? MGL?
This thread has these summations of the Pence-Schierholtz trade:
The Giants acquired a guy with a 109 OPS+. For the privilege of doing this, they traded a guy a year younger with a 115 OPS+ who plays better defense. In addition, they had to throw in their #2 prospect.

That is an awful, awful deal.
They traded for a guy who's played worse than the guy they traded. In addition, the guy they traded for makes more money. In addition, they threw in prospects.

This is a terrible, terrible trade.
   34. Walt Davis Posted: August 07, 2014 at 01:24 AM (#4766106)
Before we pile on too heavily (was one of them me?), recall that the Phils were only trading 1.5 years of Pence, the Giants extended him this offseason at 5/$90. And Pence did stink the rest of 2012 before bouncing back with 4 WAR in 2013. Still easily beats Schierholtz
   35. PreservedFish Posted: August 07, 2014 at 01:29 AM (#4766107)
I think that it's easy to overrate Jacob Turner's potential just by looking at his draft position. He was a big strong kid that threw the ball hard and was supposed to keep growing. He (apparently) didn't even really throw off-speed pitches in high school, so he wasn't drafted on breadth of stuff or pitching smarts. He was drafted because of his size and fastball. But here we are, years later, and he's throwing either exactly as hard as he did when he was 18, or even somewhat slower. That doesn't mean he couldn't figure out how to be the next Rick Porcello, or better, but I don't think he's exactly bursting with unharnessed potential.

But yeah, no-brainer to pick him up and just see what you can get out of it.
   36. PreservedFish Posted: August 07, 2014 at 01:32 AM (#4766110)
Before we pile on too heavily (was one of them me?)


Both of those summations were written by tshipman. IIRC he and I had a somewhat similar little argument the previous year when the Giants acquired Carlos Beltran - he claimed that Beltran would need to move to LF because Schierholtz was rightly entrenched in RF. So, I'm guessing he just really liked Nate Schierholtz. Everyone else on the thread had him properly pegged as a solid 4th outfielder and Pence's inferior.
   37. Walt Davis Posted: August 07, 2014 at 01:34 AM (#4766111)
Also from that thread (not me) ... man the world has changed a lot in two years:

And the Schierholtz era comes to an end. The Giants have an institutional lack of patience with their young position players, Posey and Panda notwithstanding. Gary Brown better get off to a great start or they will be trading him for Alfonso Soriano.

I can't remember ... who were the Giants gonna give the Cubs for Soriano before he nixed the trade?

   38. PreservedFish Posted: August 07, 2014 at 01:35 AM (#4766112)
I was wrong about the above, I had the spat with Into the Void and Tom (and his broom). Not tshipman. Apologies.

Beltran to Giants
   39. valuearbitrageur Posted: August 07, 2014 at 12:19 PM (#4766301)
On one hand, Turner is still young, has top prospect pedigree, has better peripherals than performance, and was solid as recently as last year. It looks like he is healthy as his velocity has actually been better this year.

On the other hand, FIP is 4.26 over the last two years and that would work out to a 90 ERA+. That's nothing special.


Even with that, 4 more years of control is worth what, $10M+? Upside is worth even more?

He's 23 years old and has 45 MLB starts, even if he never develops further as a starter one has to wonder what his FIP would be as a 1 inning reliever.

It's one of more inexplicable DFAs I can remember.
   40. zonk Posted: August 07, 2014 at 12:43 PM (#4766331)
I can't remember ... who were the Giants gonna give the Cubs for Soriano before he nixed the trade?


I don't think we ever found it, did we?

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