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Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Marlins face costly offseason with 18 players eligible for arbitration—South Florida Sun-Sentinel

How is this a problem for the Marlins front office? I think they already have an established track record of addressing such problems.

Eighteen. That’s the potentially record number of arbitration cases they could face once this surprisingly successful season ends, and they embark on perhaps their most painful offseason in three years.

Total cost of retaining all 18 players for 2009 could approach $33 million (see chart), a figure the Marlins haven’t reached for their 25-man roster since 2005. Bringing back the most vital contributors from this year’s team could cost $44 million.

Jim Furtado Posted: August 26, 2008 at 04:51 PM | 31 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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1. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: August 26, 2008 at 04:54 PM (#2916495)

A message to Marlins owners: Cry me a #### river

2. YR Denies Jesus Montero Posted: August 26, 2008 at 04:56 PM (#2916499)

And how much free "revenue stealing" money are the Marlins expecting to be delivered to their vaults this off-season? I'd like to keep everything in proper perspective.

3. RJ in TO Posted: August 26, 2008 at 05:00 PM (#2916502)

So this means that 18 Marlins will be available for trade this offseason.

4. Toolsy McClutch Posted: August 26, 2008 at 05:09 PM (#2916515)

The answer is clear, sign LoDuca to a 6y/$24 million pact and have him play several positions next year, like little Mike Ditkas.

On a more serious note, I wonder what it would take to get Dan Uggla. I could see him playing a serviceable 1B. His most similars on bbref though are not... good.

5. OCD SS Posted: August 26, 2008 at 05:13 PM (#2916522)

Is it time for a fire sale already? My how the time flies...

6. Crispix Attacks Posted: August 26, 2008 at 05:16 PM (#2916526)

Since Yankee Redneck has already appeared here I don't see this thread being very charitable to the Marlins, but it's quite unusual to have this many good players all qualifying for arbitration at once, so it mitigates the incredibly budget they've had for this year to know that next year's payroll is guaranteed to be a lot higher.

7. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: August 26, 2008 at 05:43 PM (#2916567)

The only solution is for them to win the World Series so they can get rid of all that pesky talent.

Seriously, the Marlins are going to clear $50M easy from centralized revenue (national TV, MLBAM) and revenue sharing. They can afford to keep all 18.

8. SouthSideRyan Posted: August 26, 2008 at 05:46 PM (#2916569)

Did you read the intro Crispix? They're estimating payroll at 44M for their important players. 44M is what they're fretting over. Pretty sure Jeff Loria is one of Steve Garvey's children.

9. JPWF13

Posted: August 26, 2008 at 05:52 PM (#2916572)

Is it time for a fire sale already? My how the time flies...

Nah- at least one if not two years too soon.
Marlin payroll history per USAToday:
1993 $18,196,545
1994 $20,275,500
1995 $23,670,000
1996 $30,079,500
1997 $47,753,000
1998 $33,434,000
1999 $15,150,000
2000 $19,870,000
2001 $35,562,500
2002 $41,979,917
2003 $48,750,000
2004 $42,143,042
2005 $60,408,834
2006 $14,998,500
2007 $30,507,000
2008 $21,811,500

The Marlin's likely 2009 payroll will be within the range that Loria/Sampson have been willing to tolerate for a year or two before now, plus it looks like they are getting the New Stadium they wanted-

10. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: August 26, 2008 at 05:56 PM (#2916577)

Who coulda predicted that all these young players they were accumulating would one day be eligible to receive more money?

11. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: August 26, 2008 at 05:57 PM (#2916580)

FYI, Forbes estimates Florida with revenues of $128M.

What's the genrally accepted goal for payroll/revenue, 45-50%?

http://www.forbes.com/lists/2008/33/biz_baseball08_The-Business-Of-Baseball_Revenue.html

12. The Piehole of David Wells, Depends Salesman

Posted: August 26, 2008 at 06:54 PM (#2916623)

to put it in a different light, the future is bright in florida. they've got some kids just entering their primes who are already good to great hitters, and the elder statesman of their rotation is 25.

as a red sox fan, i love the marlins spending all of the MFY money. hell, they could just keep it and release all of these guys.

edit: i know they're spending red sox money as well, but not quite as much. and yanks fans have this to think about: if they weren't so damn successful they wouldn't have so much money in the first place to give to loria et al.

13. SoSH U at work Posted: August 26, 2008 at 07:12 PM (#2916649)

as a red sox fan, i love the marlins spending all of the MFY money. hell, they could just keep it and release all of these guys.

edit: i know they're spending red sox money as well, but not quite as much. and yanks fans have this to think about: if they weren't so damn successful they wouldn't have so much money in the first place to give to loria et al.

Do you know what makes it even more fun - thinking that it's actually Yankee Redneck's money that they're spending. I like to think that whatever he spends on tickets, officially licensed merchandise, etc., is funneled straight to the the poor and downtrodden Lorias and Glasses of MLB.

14. retro-shiite Posted: August 26, 2008 at 07:20 PM (#2916655)

Pretty sure Jeff Loria is one of Steve Garvey's children.

Yeah, but that's just a matter of statistical probability.

15. retro-shiite Posted: August 26, 2008 at 07:22 PM (#2916657)

Uggla's "most similar batters through age 27" list is weird. Other than Jeff Kent and Al Rosen, they're all catchers.

16. McCoy Posted: August 26, 2008 at 07:26 PM (#2916660)

So who is going to win the Marlins sell off raffle this year? A few years back it was the Cubs, then the Tigers.

17. MM1f Posted: August 26, 2008 at 07:27 PM (#2916662)

Other than Jeff Kent and Al Rosen, they're all catchers.

It makes sense. If I told you to guess the position of a player and I told you he was a late-bloomer whose best offensive skill was power... that sounds like a catcher without a doubt.

18. Swedish Chef Posted: August 26, 2008 at 07:29 PM (#2916665)

This is why smartly run ATM teams like the Royals and Pirates avoid young exciting talent, grizzled vets can be had cheaply and the fans don't get too attached to them.

19. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 26, 2008 at 07:32 PM (#2916670)

If I told you to guess the position of a player and I told you he was a late-bloomer whose best offensive skill was power...

First base.

20. Dan Posted: August 26, 2008 at 07:33 PM (#2916671)

Hell, if you looked at Uggla and had to guess what position he played, you'd probably say catcher.

21. vortex of dissipation Posted: August 26, 2008 at 07:35 PM (#2916674)

Hell, if you looked at Uggla and had to guess what position he played, you'd probably say catcher.

Especially since he was using a catcher's mitt to play second base in the All-Star Game.

22. 3Com Park Posted: August 26, 2008 at 07:37 PM (#2916678)

I think they get rid of Jacobs, who can be replaced by McPherson, and Olsen, who can be replaced by Andrew Miller, and probably Gregg, who isn't that great and can be replaced by one of Lindstrom, Nelson or Miller. That knocks about $10MM off the total and leaves them with a pretty similar team.

23. JPWF13

Posted: August 26, 2008 at 07:41 PM (#2916683)

Uggla's "most similar batters through age 27" list is weird. Other than Jeff Kent and Al Rosen, they're all catchers.

it's because the positional adjustment seems to be off:

To this there is a positional adjustment. Each position has a value, and you subtract the difference between the two players position. James just uses primary position, but I computed an average position for players who had more than one primary position. (See Ernie Banks)

* 240 - Catcher
* 168 - Shortstop
* 132 - Second Base
* 84 - Third Base
* 48 - Outfield (James distinguishes, but I don't have that data incorporated at the moment)
* 12 - First Base
* 0 - DH

At 423 games at 2b and 2 games at DH, Uggla's positional score is 131.
Through age 27, Wilkins had does nothing but catch, therefore his positional score should be 240 (and based upon career totals it should be 232)
240-131 = 109
Uggla's and Wilkins' similarity score should be no higher than 891, but BBREF is showing 964 through age 27.

So either BBREF is not using the positional adjustment, or is using different figures than the ones posted in their glossary.

24. The Piehole of David Wells, Depends Salesman

Posted: August 26, 2008 at 07:56 PM (#2916703)

i guess the question is: who makes more money in a given year, the yankees even after paying into the system, or someone like loria? and if it's loria, why isn't everyone doing it?

25. Swedish Chef Posted: August 26, 2008 at 08:06 PM (#2916719)

and if it's loria, why isn't everyone doing it?

Because most other owners have stumbled into franchises that generate a significant amount of local revenue.

26. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: August 26, 2008 at 08:12 PM (#2916726)

and if it's loria, why isn't everyone doing it?

Everyone else has taxpayer subsidized stadiums that create enormous revenue streams that will shrink if they skimp on the on-field product.

27. JoeHova Posted: August 26, 2008 at 08:12 PM (#2916727)

i guess the question is: who makes more money in a given year, the yankees even after paying into the system, or someone like loria? and if it's loria, why isn't everyone doing it?

In addition to what Swedish Chef said, I thought that sports teams weren't always run to maximize profits in the short term because the team's value will increase if it is a popular, winning team. Also, sometimes a rich nut (Roman Abramovich, Mark Cuban, George Steinbrenner) buys a team and mostly just wants to have fun with it.

28. Big Train Posted: August 26, 2008 at 08:15 PM (#2916731)

As a fan of the Yanks, I don't have a problem with Florida or KC getting some money. It was the pre-Thome Phillies getting the checks that bothered me. Philly is no small market.

29. Hit by Pitch Posted: August 26, 2008 at 09:50 PM (#2916834)

Uggla's "most similar batters through age 27" list is weird. Other than Jeff Kent and Al Rosen, they're all catchers.

Even weirder are Jason Kendall's comp's on B-ref. There are no catchers and is almost exclusively middle infielders.

30. haven Posted: August 27, 2008 at 12:07 AM (#2917095)

The goal of the Marlins ownership group/management team is to make as much money as possible by whatever means possible.

Shocking.

That would never happen in any other industry.

31. Jay Z Posted: August 27, 2008 at 03:48 AM (#2918076)

If I told you to guess the position of a player and I told you he was a late-bloomer whose best offensive skill was power...

First base.

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Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Marlins face costly offseason with 18 players eligible for arbitration—South Florida Sun-Sentinel

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