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Monday, December 05, 2011
Here’s essentially what Reyes would need to produce to justify this contract as fair market price, based on $5 million per win and 5% annual inflation over the life of the contract:
Year WAR $/WAR Value
2012 3.53 $5.00 $17.67
2013 3.37 $5.25 $17.67
2014 3.20 $5.51 $17.67
2015 3.05 $5.79 $17.67
2016 2.91 $6.08 $17.67
2017 2.77 $6.38 $17.67
At that price, the Marlins are essentially paying for a total of +19 WAR over the next six years. What does +19 WAR from a shortstop look like over a six year period?
If Reyes manages to stay reasonably healthy for most of the next six years, the Marlins are going to get a lot of surplus value from this contract. They’ve signed an elite player who isn’t yet 30 years old and whose skillset historically ages quite well. He doesn’t have to be the next ironhorse to earn this contract — he just has to stay away from something like a skillset-altering leg injury. Essentially, if he can avoid the Grady Sizemore career path, he’s a pretty good bet to be worth this contract and then some.
Posted: December 05, 2011 at 07:17 PM | 77 comment(s)
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