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What sort of garbage were the Red Sox offering?
I was just about to post the same thing! I think I've figured out what Howie is saying, but this could've used about 3 editors. :)
Don't know much about the prospects in this deal-- anyone care to comment?
Two guys with questions about the hit tool (one of whom has never hit outside of Las Vegas), two pitchers who aren't going to miss a lot of bats. And Yunel, Mathis, and Alvarez, about whom we already have a clue.
-- MWE
After a quick scan of BB-ref's transactions, I can put together this list of well-known players who signed with the Marlins in free agency and played for two or more years without being traded.
Charlie Hough (because he retired)
Benito Santiago
Andre Dawson (because he retired)
Mark Gardner
John Cangelosi
Alex Fernandez (because of devastating injuries)
Damion Easley
Brian Moehler
Miguel Olivo
Greg Dobbs (so far)
I wish I hadn't been drinking something when I read this.
You are being rather generous with the "well-known player" definition I must say...
Any team in this division could win 90 games if things break right, although I guess the 2012 Orioles prove that's true of pretty much every team every year.
Anthopoulous for grand larceny, too.
Allow me to introduce you to the 2013 Boston Red Sox. Who will be masquerading as a MLB team next season.
Depending on how the rest of this winter goes, these may end up looking like pretty good deals.
I hope so but this won't change a thing. The politicians who will line up tax payer money will convince themselves this won't happen to them. They already believe all the myths of the impact of a new stadium.
The not-quite-prospects anymore:
I liked Adeiny Hechavarria. He promised to develop into a pretty good player and is one guy the Blue Jays might miss. He had kind of supplanted Kelly Johnson at second by the end of the year and some Jays fans were pushing for him to replace Escobar at short next spring (I thought that the Jays would be better with Escobar at short and Hechavarria at second because of Escobar's superior glove, which is probably how the Marlins will play them now).
Henderson Alvarez was rushed into duty this year due to the Jays' injuries and was over his head more often than not. He would have been fighting it out for the 4th or 5th starter spot next year. May turn into a good pitcher someday but probably not a huge loss for the Jays (or huge gain for the Marlins, depending on your perspective).
The actual prospects:
Justin Nicolino is a couple of years away from the majors. He spent the last year at single A and put up good numbers (1.07 Whip and 8.6 k/9). I sometimes saw him listed as a top five prospect for the Jays but he's not in their top two or three.
I'm not even sure I knew who the outfielder was before this. He's not consistently included in any "top ten prospect" lists.
The major leaguers:
I'm not in the Toronto media market anymore so I don't get to keep up with the team on a daily basis. However, Escobar seemed to have settled in as a solid contributor. He didn't have his best year with the bat but people weren't questioning his mental make-up as much as other players on the team (see: Colby Rasmus) and he wasn't making headlines with stupid statements (see: Omar Vizquel). At this point in his career, he's potentially a good veteran presence. Shortstop wasn't one of Toronto's big holes going into next year but if an upgrade at short is the price to pay for an improved pitching staff, I'm all for it.
Jeff Mathis, of course, is the classic addition by subtraction.
Marisnick? He's the team's top hitting prospect.
Could be. Everything I saw had him listed well below their pitching prospects and infielders like D'Arnaud and Hechevarria- if they bothered to list him at all.
Kevin Goldstein of B-Pro (and now of the Astros) ranked Marisnick #28 on his top-101 list last year. He hit well at high A this year and then struggled after being promoted to AA. I expect his stock has fallen a bit, but he's still a serious prospect. This year Baseball America ranked him #2 among Jays prospects (after D'Arnaud).
Unless you count the ones written on his eye black. L'Affaire Maricon was plenty stupid and got plenty of headlines.
He's the top prospect in the deal.
As a Jays fan, I can say that this comment is completely accurate. Unlike Vizquel, Escobar certainly did all his talking on the field. You could really see how he felt just by looking into his eyes. He isn't an iceman like some players, his personality was literally written on his face. While some thought that the language barrier would hurt his ability to reach out to the fans, Toronto is a multicultural city and was quick to learn what he was saying. In return, he gave back to the city by donating thousands of dollars of his salary to You Can Play and The Gay and Lesbian Alliance Against Defamation. Yes, it will be a long time before what Yunel Escobar did as a Jay is forgotten in Toronto.
Edit: Damnit, coke to zachtoma.
Nah, Jacob Turner has one too. But that's it.
My GF is not going to be happy about this, she would have loved Reyes on the Sox.
Huh?.......
OK, now the trade makes sense. Reyes was actually a rental from the Jays; Johnson and Buehrle the cost of the rental.
You can get to someone's twitter feed without being a twitterer yourself. Here's Stanton
Marisnick: #2
Nicolino: #5
Hechevarria: #7
Nicolino is grouped with Syndergaard and Aaron Sanchez. He does not throw as hard but he has better secondary stuff and he is lefthanded. In some ways he is similar to Mark Buehrle, but he throws a bit harder. Marisnick is a power/speed guy who struggled a bit last year while the Jays retooled his swing. His 2011 was very strong, and he's playing well in the AFL this year. Hechevarria was signed at the same time as Jose iglesias, but unlike Jose he is showing some actual hitting ability. Defensively, he is ready now. Great range, smooth actions, and a strong throwing arm.
The Jays picked up 3 guys who will help them now, but they are paying almost full freight for them. In the case of buehrle, they are overpaying for the backloaded last 3 years of his deal. And Reyes and Johnson both have a history of being fragile.
The marlins got salary relief, and also picked up 3 really decent prospects. What's not to like? Watch them develop the team in 2013, and come back strong in 2014. There is nothing wrong with rebuilding as long as you do it with conviction.
Also, I expect that Yunel Escobar will be traded to Arizona for prospects by the end of the week :)
What do you think these 3 guys would have gotten on the open market? Why would you want salary relief from three guys basically earning their salaries.
I have to admit, I was hoping for the Sox to land a Buehrle/Reyes package for some middling prospects. But even that I feared might be too good to be true. To also get Johnson seems ridiculous.
The A's would pay for their own stadium in San Jose, and San Jose is happy to sell them the land at a discount. I doubt the Miami situation will affect the Giants' opposition to the move.
More likely a double dip and pension solvency requirements have a greater impact than this. Pirates and Twins did similar things and the funds were still flowing (or talked of flowing). Or consider the Phoenix Coyotes threatened moving 8 years after their new hockey-only arena was built.
I'm originally from Miami and have two childhood friends with season tickets. They are both livid, moreso than any of the previous fire sales.
You wonder if there really is a limit to how much a fanbase will endure before they completely abandon a team.
It depends on the definition of "fanbase". There will always be a fanbase of at least 10 or 20 people. At the same time even at its peak the Marlins might be described as not having a fanbase at all, by the standards of the Phillies or Cardinals or Angels.
I actually saw him play in the fall league the other day and he homered.
Rays can't leave because of their lease. But there's nothing to stop the Rays and Marlins from making a 200 player for 200 player organization trade. And then Bud can force the owners to sell to each other.
True enough. Thanks to the perverse nature of Budshovism certain well-positioned teams are exempt from self-sufficiency. At some point does this become enough of an embarrassment to the league to prompt a sit-down?
Nicolino: #5
Hechevarria: #7
Organizational rankings can be very misleading - a guy can be #2 in his organization and still not be a particularly good prospect, and a #7 guy can have almost no value at all. It doesn't so much matter how good a player is compared to the other prospects in his organization but how good he is compared to the greater market of prospects out there in MLB.
But otherwise this thread is hilarious. Keep it going.
Of course he mostly inherited the talent (thank you John Henry) that won 94 games and a World Series in his 2nd year. Then within a few years he dumped everyone and dropped payroll to under $25M, and the teams record wended it's way down to 71 wins. Over the last 8 years he's averaging 75 wins. He's traded almost every talented player developed by the organization.
And now he's pulled another salary dump. Do you really think he'll be lucky enough to stop the slide at only 69 wins this time?
He was the first person I thought of when this was announced.
Also this year he was *trying* to build a contender (he might also have been trying to fleece the city of Miami, but that's besides the point). Payroll was over 100 million at the start of the year. 69 wins was not a slide based on a long process of trading away all of his good players, it was just a bad year and pretty unlucky. PECOTA projected them to win 85 games.
This might have been the one year he honestly went all in and it's not a good example of his terrible ownership. Ironically the years in which he kept payroll at or near the bottom of the league, the Marlins fielded decent teams. Even ignoring the first 3 years of his ownership (for some reason, don't ask me), the Marlins averaged 81 wins from 2004 to 2011.
But again, you can fudge all the numbers you want. Marlins averaged 80 wins per season under Loria, so his evilness has not really manifested itself in a "minor league team" (like Dave Cameron put it in a FG post today).
Marisnick is considered the best or second best hitting prospect by a lot of Jays fans. He is toolsy and still quite young.
Nicolino and DeSclafani (who MLBtraderumours says is involved now), both look promising so far. Though A) they're not Sanchez or Snydergaard (which is good for the Jays), and B) DeSclafani doesn't miss a lot of bats.
Hechavarria I never really saw the fuss over. Apparently a great glove, but I haven't seen any indication that he's ever going to hit.
Probably? There is no question.
Escobar: Has had 4 great seasons out of 6. Excellent contract on remaining 2 years
Alvarez: Throws 95, gets tons of ground balls, but strikeout % is one of the lowest in MLB. Needs to develop off-speed pitch. Waaay young, great competitive personality
Marisnick: Just last week BA podcast said best case scenario, he tops out as what Francoeur was hoped to be. Weakest tool, hitting. Body moves him off of CF into corner spot eventually according to BA
Hechavarria: Amazing glove. Poor plate approach. Has more hit tool than Red Sox Iglesias. Profiles as Rey Ordonez glove/bat
DeSclafani: Recent draft pick, throws hard I guess. Buried somewhere in TOR's solid Top 30
Jays acquire a lot of talent, especially where they needed it. Took control of their own fate going into the highly competitive FA pitching market. Said they had to go get guys, and NEEDED at least two solid SP's. They assume a lotta risk, maybe getting two pissed off recent FA signing guys, and absorb the very expensive back-end loaded contracts of Reyes & Buehrle. Does Buehrle's decade of 200 consecutive innings pitched catch up to him? Reyes knees on artificial turf? Huge deal. Big names. Big prospects. Big money. Big risk.
Canada would never extradite now...
You mean, in addition to the $300 million Florida taxpayers handed him?
Well, that's besides YOUR point. I'm not so sure that's besides THE point.
My wife is happy about this, she doesn't have to hear me curse out her favorite player every time he comes to bat against the Mets.
@Squash
The Jays system is ranked in the Top 5 of MLB, so I don't really understand your point here. It's not like we are talking about the Chicago White Sox here.
And I completely forgot about Henderson Alvarez. He's a young (22) fastball/changeup guy who throws very hard with decent control. Main problem is the lack of a third quality pitch. If starting does not work out, he has the arm to be a decent setup man or closer.
Yunel Escobar, baggage and all, is a very good shortstop. In a year when he hits a little, his defense is good enough to make him a 4 WAR player. And he's signed at 5 MM per season through 2015. Even in last year's disastrous season, he was a 1.8 WAR player.
Loria may be a evil, money grubbing troll, but he got back quantity and quality in this deal. And he did it by trading risky players who are being paid at market value.
The Marlins gutted themselves at the MLB Level, but they just made their organization a lot stronger.
Hechevarria is a bit bigger and stronger than Ordonez, which makes me think he will hit for a little more power. If he can develop a little plate discipline, he's a poor man's Elvis Andrus. Defensively, the comparison is not a bad one.
Iglesias makes Ordonez look like Babe Ruth. He literally cannot hit. Iglesias had 11 (!) XBH in nearly 400 PA in AAA last year. That is historically bad.
It is pretty funny reading posts from outraged Red Sox fans who think that Iglesias/Kalish/Doubront are an equivalent package to what the Marlins received.
Was Alex A playing Nine Inch Nails' "Closer"?
I've hated Escobar from day one. He had a nice 2011, but has now had an OPS below .660 in two of the past three years. I think WAR overrates his D.
Alvarez could turn out to be a top of the rotation starter, or he could stagnate where he is. As others have said, he needs a third pitch (slider/splitter/curveball).
I don't understand the high ranking for Marisnick. He just put up .249/.321/.399 line over high-A and AA as a 21 year old, with a 37/100 BB/K ratio and went 24/9 on the bases. I know his projection is based on tools, but I just don't see him becoming anymore than a regular everyday player. Cody Ross maybe.
Nicolino is a great prospect, but he's still at least two years away.
Hechevarria - blah. I never understood the fuss, especially since they've been talking about him at 2B.
The Jays still need to trade at least one catcher. For some stupid reason claimed Bobby Wilson off waivers, so they have him, Arencibia, Buck and D'Arnaud right now. I would say there's about a 5% chance that Arencibia starts the season with the team.
I suppose it depends on what you mean by hype. It was my impression that the system was well regarded. Reaction to this trade may be proof of that in that the Marlins got a decent haul but the Jays managed to keep their best prospects (D'Arnaud, Sanchez, and Snydergaard).
Yea, I'm a bit mystified as to those already writing the Marlins completely off saying they'll lose 100 considering what JUST HAPPENED to Oakland. The Marlins have been doing this for years, and somehow making it work out.
Those guys are valuable.
As a baseball-only deal, it seems fair. The Jays get some nice players without having to bid for them on the open market, while the Marlins (who probably aren't contenders in the next year or two anyway) get some nice prospects and save themselves some serious cash. The backloading of the Buehrle and Reyes deals makes those two very expensive - $34M combined in '14, $41M in '15, Reyes $22M/yr for 2 more years + a buyout. If Reyes really is a below-average fielder now, that's a ton of money for a <3 win player. Reyes and Buehrle are great deals in '13, but after that, not so much.
As a public relations move, though.....Yea. Unless the Marlins plan on signing each of the top 4 FAs this off-season, the taxpayers have every reason to be livid because it seems obvious the Marlins have no plan to be a good team, just to maximize profit.
Oh, and it's $96M ($10M, 16, 22, 22, 22, 4 (buyout)), but that's change between the cushions in this deal.
Yes. What's he take home at the end of a hard day of grafting and crying poor?
I assume it's a pretty similar amount to that of all the other teams who recently whined their way to a publicly funded new stadium.
That is what I'm curious about. BRef has his defence as abysmal the last two years. To the NL fans: has Reyes looked like a -13 and -17 fielder the past two years?
John and Doug Pappas are probably sharing a laugh over this right about now.
I read earlier today that Loria is paid $10m per year for his administrative duties.
Edit: here is the link http://www.miaminewtimes.com/2011-05-05/news/six-lies-about-the-marlins-stadium/2/ with the key clauses:
Miami citizenry: "Hello, little ####."
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