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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Tuesday, October 02, 2012
The Case of the Medlen Medium (I’ll get right on it Perry!).
In addition to taking advantage of poor hitting teams, Medlen has also experienced some luck since becoming a starter. He has a .255 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) as a starter, which is very low for starting pitchers (by contrast Dickey- .278, Gonzalez- .271, and Cueto- .300) and suggest that Medlen is due for a significant regression to the mean, with .300 being a typical major league average). His career BABIP of .295 has come in a reasonable sized sample of 120 games, and is a better indicator of his true ability.
Regardless of luck or opponent, Medlen has gotten the job done spectacularly since becoming a starter, but his Cy Young push has accumulated narrative like a rolling stone gathers moss. A key reason cited why he deserves consideration for the award is the 23 game winning streak the Braves have run off with him starting. However, the streak is not confined to just this year and is actually spread out over three seasons. He simply hasn’t put together a large enough body of work to be considered a serious Cy Young contender in 2012.
Finding alternative explanations for Medlen’s incredible stint as a starter is not to take away from his ability or performance in any way, but rather serves to frame his results in more realistic terms. In baseball 12 games is a small sample size and can’t be extrapolated across an entire season. Even adding Medlen’s stint as an above average reliever earlier in the year can’t push him over the top for such an award. Medlen has likely been the best pitcher in baseball since the start of August, but that is indicative of a hot streak and not the best pitcher over 162 games. It’s great to give such a great young pitcher his dues, but once it’s time to determine who will win the Cy Young, voters will hopefully look past the hyperbole and evaluate his numbers with a realistic eye.
Repoz
Posted: October 02, 2012 at 05:52 AM | 52 comment(s)
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1. Rants Mulliniks (formerly Cold Prosimian) Posted: October 02, 2012 at 09:40 AM (#4250810)1. Dickey
2. Medlen
3. Cueto
4. Kershaw
5. Kimbrel
I hate to put Kimbrel on the ballot ahead of Gio or Zimmerman, but neither pitched 200 innings or had an astounding ERA. Kimbrel not only had the K's, but he's also improved his control dramatically, dropping his BB/9 from 7.0 --> 3.7 --> 2.0 the last three years. His WHIP is 0.65 for the love of God.
Huh?
Moylan = big tatted up Aussie
Medlen = 12 year old looking guy that doesn't curve the brim of his hat
If Medlen had pitched lucky all year, and posted a 2.00 ERA with only 6 Ks per 9 or something like that, he would still be a better Cy Young candidate to someone with better peripherals who pitched to a 3.00 ERA.
I know Cardinal bias and all, but no way does Medlen get my vote. Kimbrel is even more insane.
1. Dickey
2. Cueto
3. Lohse
4. Kershaw
5. A Washington National pitcher.
I believe you mean the 12 year old boy who looks like a 35 year old lesbian.
God. This is ####### fantastic! Thank you.
What if I told you that there was a man in the 90s who had a .255 BABIP... over a four year period. And that his BABIP indicated not that he was a magical luck wizard, but rather that he was awesome. And further, that in the 1000+ IP he had pitched before those 4 years, his BABIP had been .287, a number higher than the league average. Should we have knocked that man's Cy Young credentials each year, because there was no way he could possibly keep it up?
Medlen has pitched fantastically; I don't need BABIP to tell me that he won't do so forever. People who aren't actually Prime Greg Maddux tend to pitch less than their best from time to time, so Medlen will eventually falter. That's a terrible reason to knock what he's actually done, however.
The great BBTF handle candidates just keep on rolling in ...
... though of course it's too long.
Kyle Lohse should not even be in the Cy Young conversation and I die a bit inside every time a local STL media hack tries to lump him in there.
He's had a nice season, and Boras will get him a nice contract this offseason, but the fact as a starting pitcher that he went an entire season without once finishing the 8th inning disqualifies him from Cy Young consideration.
Dickey was the best pitcher in the NL. He had the most dominant peak. He pitched the most innings. He's at or near the top in just about every counting and rate statistic. He's the Cy Young.
Gonzalez, Kershaw, and Cueto are the other primary contenders, but all are pretty clearly a half notch below Dickey in some way. Medlen and Kimbrel have interesting cases and either one could be given runner up consideration, but neither has the resume to win the award outright.
One likes to make fun of Nickelback on Twitter. The other one spent time in Danville.
Why not, by war, wpa, and era+ with an innings pitched component he belongs in any listing of top five pitcher in the NL.
To get on my hypothetical CY Young ballot with 138 innings pitched, it would have to have 10+ complete games and 5+ shutouts. His ERA+ would be fine if that was the case. But when I see obscenely high era+'s like his, it's clear to me that he isn't pitching deep into the games and getting lit up when he is tired(I call it the Pedro effect)
Didn't hurt Roger Clemens in 2004. (technically Clemens did finish the 8th inning once that year, but he only made it to the 8th inning three times)
Actually I believe that his transition from reliever to starter was planned in March, and that it was done slowly on purpose to save his arm from accumulating too many innings. Basically he's on a more creative version of the Strasburg plan, and it's tough to argue with the results right now.
Yes, Medlen's has been bested.
Rk Player ERA+ IP Year Tm G GS CG SHO GF W L SV H R ER BB SO ERA
1 Pedro Martinez 291 217.0 2000 BOS 29 29 7 4 0 18 6 0 128 44 42 32 284 1.74
2 John Hiller 283 125.1 1973 DET 65 0 0 0 60 10 5 38 89 21 20 39 124 1.44
3 Dutch Leonard 279 224.2 1914 BOS 36 25 17 7 8 19 5 3 139 34 24 60 176 0.96
4 Ferdie Schupp 272 140.1 1916 NYG 30 11 8 4 17 9 3 1 79 22 14 37 86 0.90
5 Greg Maddux 271 202.0 1994 ATL 25 25 10 3 0 16 6 0 150 44 35 31 156 1.56
6 Red Munger 268 121.0 1944 STL 21 12 7 2 8 11 3 2 92 23 18 41 55 1.34
7 Jim Kern 264 143.0 1979 TEX 71 0 0 0 57 13 5 29 99 35 25 62 136 1.57
8 Greg Maddux 260 209.2 1995 ATL 28 28 10 3 0 19 2 0 147 39 38 23 181 1.63
9 Walter Johnson 259 346.0 1913 WSH 48 36 29 11 10 36 7 2 232 56 44 38 243 1.14
10 Bob Gibson 258 304.2 1968 STL 34 34 28 13 0 22 9 0 198 49 38 62 268 1.12
11 Kris Medlen 257 138.0 2012 ATL 50 12 2 1 7 10 1 1 103 26 24 23 120 1.57
12 Mordecai Brown 253 277.1 1906 CHC 36 32 27 9 4 26 6 3 198 56 32 61 144 1.04
13 Mark Eichhorn 246 157.0 1986 TOR 69 0 0 0 38 14 6 10 105 32 30 45 166 1.72
14 Steve Rogers 245 134.0 1973 MON 17 17 7 3 0 10 5 0 93 28 23 49 64 1.54
15 Rich Gossage 244 133.0 1977 PIT 72 0 0 0 55 11 9 26 78 27 24 49 151 1.62
16 Pedro Martinez 243 213.1 1999 BOS 31 29 5 1 1 23 4 0 160 56 49 37 313 2.07
17 Walter Johnson 240 369.0 1912 WSH 50 37 34 7 13 33 12 2 259 89 57 76 303 1.39
18 Babe Adams 232 130.0 1909 PIT 25 12 7 3 11 12 3 2 88 25 16 23 65 1.11
19 Christy Mathewson 230 338.2 1905 NYG 43 37 32 8 6 31 9 3 252 85 48 64 206 1.28
20 Dwight Gooden 229 276.2 1985 NYM 35 35 16 8 0 24 4 0 198 51 47 69 268 1.53
21 Bruce Sutter 227 122.2 1984 STL 71 0 0 0 63 5 7 45 109 26 21 23 77 1.54
22 Roger Clemens 226 211.1 2005 HOU 32 32 1 0 0 13 8 0 151 51 44 62 185 1.87
23 Pete Alexander 225 376.1 1915 PHI 49 42 36 12 7 31 10 3 253 86 51 64 241 1.22
24 Christy Mathewson 222 275.1 1909 NYG 37 33 26 8 4 25 6 2 192 57 35 36 149 1.14
25 Roger Clemens 222 264.0 1997 TOR 34 34 9 3 0 21 7 0 204 65 60 68 292 2.05
Rk Player ERA+ IP Year Tm G GS CG SHO GF W L SV H R ER BB SO ERA
26 Doug Corbett 221 136.1 1980 MIN 73 0 0 0 63 8 6 23 102 31 30 42 89 1.98
27 Pedro Martinez 219 241.1 1997 MON 31 31 13 4 0 17 8 0 158 65 51 67 305 1.90
28 Bob Lee 219 137.0 1964 LAA 64 5 0 0 39 6 5 19 87 31 23 58 111 1.51
29 Cy Young 219 371.1 1901 BOS 43 41 38 5 2 33 10 0 324 112 67 37 158 1.62
30 Denny Driscoll 218 201.0 1882 PIT 23 23 23 0 0 13 9 0 162 73 27 12 59 1.21
31 Lefty Grove 217 288.2 1931 PHA 41 30 27 4 10 31 4 5 249 84 66 62 175 2.06
32 Jack Pfiester 216 195.0 1907 CHC 30 22 13 3 5 14 9 0 143 61 25 48 90 1.15
33 Walter Johnson 215 290.1 1919 WSH 39 29 27 7 10 20 14 2 235 73 48 51 147 1.49
34 Kevin Brown 215 233.0 1996 FLA 32 32 5 3 0 17 11 0 187 60 49 33 159 1.89
35 Walter Johnson 214 326.0 1918 WSH 39 29 29 8 10 23 13 3 241 71 46 70 162 1.27
36 Carl Lundgren 213 207.0 1907 CHC 28 25 21 7 3 18 7 0 130 42 27 92 84 1.17
37 Rich Gossage 212 141.2 1975 CHW 62 0 0 0 49 9 8 26 99 32 29 70 130 1.84
38 Roger Clemens 211 228.1 1990 BOS 31 31 7 4 0 21 6 0 193 59 49 54 209 1.93
39 Pedro Martinez 211 186.2 2003 BOS 29 29 3 0 0 14 4 0 147 52 46 47 206 2.22
40 Dan Quisenberry 210 139.0 1983 KCR 69 0 0 0 62 5 3 45 118 35 30 11 48 1.94
41 Rich Harden 210 148.0 2008 TOT 25 25 0 0 0 10 2 0 96 38 34 61 181 2.07
42 Ed Reulbach 209 291.2 1905 CHC 34 29 28 5 5 18 14 1 208 71 46 73 152 1.42
43 Ron Guidry 208 273.2 1978 NYY 35 35 16 9 0 25 3 0 187 61 53 72 248 1.74
44 Francisco Liriano 208 121.0 2006 MIN 28 16 0 0 2 12 3 1 89 31 29 32 144 2.16
45 Jack Taylor 206 333.2 1902 CHC 37 34 34 8 3 23 11 1 273 86 48 45 88 1.29
46 Old Hoss Radbourn 205 678.2 1884 PRO 75 73 73 11 2 59 12 2 528 216 104 98 441 1.38
47 Roger Craig 205 152.2 1959 LAD 29 17 7 4 3 11 5 0 122 49 35 45 76 2.06
48 Zack Greinke 205 229.1 2009 KCR 33 33 6 3 0 16 8 0 195 64 55 51 242 2.16
49 Willie Hernandez 204 140.1 1984 DET 80 0 0 0 68 9 3 32 96 30 30 36 112 1.92
50 Addie Joss 204 325.0 1908 CLE 42 35 29 9 6 24 11 2 232 77 42 30 130 1.16
Rk Player ERA+ IP Year Tm G GS CG SHO GF W L SV H R ER BB SO ERA
51 Pedro Martinez 202 199.1 2002 BOS 30 30 2 0 0 20 4 0 144 62 50 40 239 2.26
52 Dolf Luque 201 322.0 1923 CIN 41 37 28 6 4 27 8 2 279 90 69 88 151 1.93
53 Dean Chance 200 278.1 1964 LAA 46 35 15 11 7 20 9 4 194 56 51 86 207 1.65
Seasons/Careers found: 53.
This is pitchers with over 120 innings pitched and 200 era+
Best ERA+ for someone throwing between 120 and 140 IP in a season in 283. Medlen's 257 is 3rd on the list. Sadly I'm cheap and don't subscribe so I don't know who the 283 is. Any guesses?
EDIT: Ah I see it was John Hiller.
Top 10 ERA+, >130 IP
Medlen finishes 9th.
Edit: Large, illegal-in-NYC beverage to cardsfanboy
Since this is completely wrong and easily verifiable, why would you even bother making this post?
Funny you cite WPA for Lohse, as Kimbrel and Medlen at 1 and 2 in WPA.
He's completely in the clouds on the subject of Pedro.
To be honest I hadn't looked at any of the "clutch" stats in a month or so. I would never honestly use those stats for something like Cy Young, but remembered looking at it in the recent past.
Incredibly wrong.
1. Pedro pitched 186 IP or more for every season but one from 1995-2005. That's a pretty good run of durability, actually.
2. From July 31-present, when the Braves finally put him in the rotation, Medlen has pitched 83.2 IP in 12 starts, 1/3 IP short of 7 IP per start.
3. If he were "getting lit up when he is tired," wouldn't that be reflected in his ERA? Anyway, in his 12 starts he's given up more than 1 R just twice (2 ER and 3 ER).
EDIT:
4. If he were "getting lit up when he is tired," I would think you'd see that he was being lifted in the middle of innings. He's pitched whole innings in every one of his starts but starts #2 and #3 (unless he's been lifted in the middle of an inning having retired no one; I'm not willing to look at every one of his starts to rule this out).
This is the most puzzling post I've ever read on this site. How does a high ERA+ mean a player is sometimes getting lit up?
AVG OBP SLG 1st PA in G as SP .237 .263 .351 2nd PA in G as SP .152 .184 .172 3rd PA in G as SP .192 .213 .288 4th+ PA in G as SP .083 .083 .083As you can see, Medlen gets lit up as he gets tired.
Which is precisely why you shouldn't rely on those metrics exclusively when measuring pitching performance.
Pitchers who pitch deeper into games are more valuable.
I absolutely 100% agree, but it's not like Lohse is competing against Koufax, Gibson or even Maddux or Randy for that distinction.
Dickey made it to the 8th inning 12 times, Kershaw 11, Cueto 7, Lohse 5, Medlen 4, Gonzalez 3, Zimmerman 0. That criteria helps Kershaw, but it doesn't hurt Lohse in comparison to the other competitors.
I'm a fan of the quality start, Lohse is tied for third(Kershaw and Zimmermann) in the nl with 24 (Behind Dickey 26, and Gallardo 25)
Yep, my fault was quickly putting out a comment while playing with my nephew and didn't word it remotely correct.
When I see those high era+, it seems that in the post 80's era, that it's indicative of a pitcher who doesn't frequently pitch in the 8th and 9th inning, avoiding the opportunities to get lit up that plague other pitchers. The most obvious example of this is Roger Clemens 2004/2005. I call it unfairly the Pedro effect due to Pedro not being as good as the other elite pitchers at getting into the eighth inning, but he's better than any other pitcher in his era at getting to the eighth inning.
But look at who the pitchers who did it were - Nolan Ryan, Dwight Gooden, John Tudor, Clemens twice, Maddux twice, Pedro Martinez twice, and Kevin Brown. The worst pitcher on the list is John Tudor, who had a really good career. Dwight Gooden is generally considered a guy who lost a Hall of Fame career because of substance issues and misuse. Everyone else is a HoF-caliber player. None of these guys was a true-talent 1.99-ERA pitcher, but there haven't been any of those since the deadball era. There isn't really any point in saying that a guy's performance is unsustainable when he has an ERA under two.
Medlen's issue isn't that his peripherals are masking a mediocre or merely good performance; his FIP would lead the league if he were qualified (are there qualifications for the FIP title?). It's the "if he were qualified" part that drops him behind the other candidates. The author does make a good point about who Medlen's opponents have been, but I don't think that citing Medlen's BABIP provides any useful information about how he's pitched this season.
Where have you gone, battlefob? BTF turns its lonely eyes to you.
So who are the pitchers who have pitched more frequently than Medlen to the eighth inning or beyond since Medlen joined the rotation?
None really, my knock against Medlen is nothing that is his fault. He just doesn't have enough innings. Yes he had a couple of games where he was pulled without allowing a run, but for the most part once he established himself as a starter, he has been used well.
You're seeing two different factors in these results. One is that, even with a low BABIP, you need good "FIP skills" to break 2.00 -- so mostly it's good K/BB/HR pitchers who make the list. But it's also true that pitchers do vary to a non-trivial degree in their BABIP skill. Tudor, Clemens, Maddux and Pedro were all above average in preventing hits on BIP (I don't remember the #s for Gooden and Brown), and that skill was a significant part of what made them great pitchers. When these guys posted very low BABIPs, they were getting a bit lucky that year -- but they were already starting from a low level.
Nope, Medlen has been that good, although I usually prefer to not even begin evaluating a young starting pitcher until their 14th game started in a season, but in Medlen's case he didn't have the hiccup that seems to often happen to a young pitcher after their 6th-11th start so he's probably a definite exception that that general rule (that I have)
I never, ever care about the pitcher that the Cardinals is facing in the playoffs. I have seen enough to know that it really doesn't matter how good or bad they are, randomness is accentuated in the post season and anything can happen, fretting or predicting based upon the quality of one player is utterly ridiculous.
But for those willing to dismiss BABIP and DIPS completely in Cy Young voting, do you think Kyle Lohse is as strong a candidate as Cole Hamels? Lohse actually has a lower ERA.
I don't dismiss it completely; for instance, I feel very confident that Jorge Sosa circa 2005 was succeeding through voodoo rather than skill.
That said, the CY case for those two pitchers is pretty similar (and basically non-existent for either, mind you). Even the FIP-based fWAR has them at less than 1 WAR apart, and their FIP delta is ~.20. This seems like a pretty bad example to plant a FIP flag on.
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