A break, indeed. While getting two good draft picks would be a nice consolation prize, the Nationals might be better off signing Dunn, especially because he provides good plate protection for Zimmerman. Boswell believes he's likely gone, but the Type A designation could change things a bit. Especially if a team on the North Side, remembering Alfonso Soriano, believes losing draft picks isn't worth a potential financial albatross -- particularly one that's rebuilding and needs to keep, and develop, young talent.

The downside risk of the Nats offering Dunn arbitration is that he plays for them next season. Or they could work out a contract (easier for the Nats, because he's not on the open market). The Nats should offer.

Watch them not, though.-

I actually have a hard time believing that the Cubs will sign Adam Dunn. They're trying to cut payroll, not add to it, and Dunn is not going to come cheap.

Especially if a team on the North Side, remembering Alfonso Soriano, believes losing draft picks isn't worth a potential financial albatross -- particularly one that's rebuilding and needs to keep, and develop, young talent.

The signing team only loses one draft pick for signing a type-A free agent (albeit their first). The other compensation pick to the team losing the FA is a sandwich pick between the first and second round.

I would think that the Sox have three easy arb decisions in Konerko, Pierzynski and Putz. I wouldn't love having Konerko back at ~$12 million or Pierzynski back at ~$6, but on one year deals those wouldn't be awful contracts. In any case, I think the probability of either of those two accepting is low -- both are likely looking for one last 'big' contract (two- or three-year deal). Putz is a slam dunk (made $3 million last season), and the whole situation was well-played by the Sox -- pick him up for relatively cheap, get a very good season out of him and end up with a top 60 draft pick.

The signing team only loses one draft pick for signing a type-A free agent (albeit their first). The other compensation pick to the team losing the FA is a sandwich pick between the first and second round.


Keep in mind that teams in the lower half of overall records have protected first round picks, so they give up second round picks for their first Type As.

They should let him go. They should be aiming for 2012/2013...next year's a wash. Signing Dunn for 2011 only increases the risk that they could magically be around .500 at the trading deadline, and then trade their prospects for middle relievers.

Dunn will have takers out there. There are several clubs looking for 1Bs or DHs, clubs that intend to compete next year. I don't think there's much risk to the Nats if they offer him arb. The real question is if he'll be willing to sign with an AL team, given that he's expressed uneasiness with DHing the past.

Putz is a slam dunk (made $3 million last season), and the whole situation was well-played by the Sox -- pick him up for relatively cheap, get a very good season out of him and end up with a top 60 draft pick.

Is he a type A? That might limit his market.

Putz is type-B, so only a supp pick. Link to the whole list.

Hm. They also have Manny Ramirez, another type-A, although I can't imagine they'd offer him arbitration.

Dunn has some scary warning signs from last year too making him even less desirable for the Nats. His strikeout rate was a career high, while his walk rate was a career low. His iso was basically the same as his career iso. His season was really saved from his babip being so high. It was .329 compared to .296 for his career while his line drive rate was 17.9 compared to a 19.5 career rate.

If you just make the very basic adjustment of assuming that Pena and Dunn both hit their career babip last year here are the lines you would get for them assuming that all the lack of hits or excess hits would be singles.

Dunn 227/323/503
Pena 253/382/464

Add that to the fact that this is the only year since Pena has been with the Rays that Dunn has had a better Fangraphs WAR, that Dunn would effectively cost them 2 picks and Dunn seems like hes going to get more years and money on the free agent market I think there is no reason to resign Dunn.

I'm not saying they should sign Pena either but it would be a lot better of an idea if they decided that they really needed to sign a 1B. With Strasburg out for the season they should probably wait till at least next year to sign any premier free agents and should be content planning to sign no one this off season initially and just see if a true bargain falls in their lap.

Putz is type-B, so only a supp pick. Link to the whole list.

jorge de la rosa is a free agent? i guess he's been around a while, but other than cliff lee, he kind of looks like the best starter that has a chance to switch teams.

Dunn has some scary warning signs from last year

The bright side is that Dunn made those changes on purpose. As you note, those changes were counter-productive but, presumably, Dunn can go back to being the same old Dunn with the 380ish OBP. Of course he's been carrying warning signs his whole career with his old man skills. Pena has the same warning signs.

I don't know what the market will be for him but grabbing Derrek Lee for 1-2 seasons as a placeholder might be good for the Nats -- solid player, professional presence in the clubhouse.

Lee is done

He will be out of the game in 2 years