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Sunday, August 30, 2009

MASN: Hunter: The magic number is 5 for the Orioles

As one of druncles used to say (as he bar-flopped his way to Aquaduct)...“You have to wade through the ######## to get to the real ########.”

The Orioles’ record when scoring 5 runs or more is an amazing 41-16. That’s a winning percentage. of .719. But in contrast, when the O’s have scored 4 runs or less, their record is 11-60. That’s a winning pct. of just .155.

There are many reasons for the disparity, the biggest being the Orioles’ team ERA, which going into Friday’s game was 5.01. That’s why the O’s are just 5-15 when they have scored 4 runs this season. The magic number is 5.

But the bigger explanation for the disparity is the numerous young players the Orioles have added to the roster this season. They are a talented group and have bright futures. But young players have stretches of inconsistency as they learn to compete at the big league level day-in and day-out. It’s part of the process and the key is the lessons learned from their mistakes and their inconsistent play. It will make them better players, which will lead to more consistency.

The hope is that as the pitchers become more efficient and effective, they will give up fewer runs. And as the young hitters become more consistent, it will lead to increased run production.

The game has never changed. You win by scoring one more run than your opponent. And the fewer you allow, the fewer you need to score to win that game. The next step in the Orioles’ rebuilding is winning more games by not having to outslug the opponent.

Repoz Posted: August 30, 2009 at 12:35 PM | 25 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: orioles, sabermetrics

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1. Bob Dernier Cri

Posted: August 30, 2009 at 02:26 PM (#3309062)

The Orioles’ record when scoring 5 runs or more is an amazing 41-16. That’s a winning percentage. of .719

Well, the Rangers' record when scoring five runs or more is 57-8, or .877. The Angels' is 58-14, or .806. I don't feel like figuring this for every team, but I fail to see what's amazing about 41-16. Even the Royals are 32-19 (.627) when they score five or more, which would have to suggest that every team in the current AL has a damn good record when they score more than four runs, but that the better teams have better records when doing so than the bad teams. Why do people call things "amazing" without any idea what constitutes "amazing" on the measure? "Cedar Rapids, Iowa has an amazing population of 120,758!"

2. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: August 30, 2009 at 02:30 PM (#3309063)

"Cedar Rapids, Iowa has an amazing population of 120,758!"

Every one of those people is an amazing creature of God.

3. The Most Interesting Man In The World Posted: August 30, 2009 at 02:30 PM (#3309064)

I do believe that Bill James (and many others) have done research on this topic. Off the top of my head, I am going to suggest that a .719 Winning Percentage in this situation is below average.

4. Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Molina Posted: August 30, 2009 at 02:35 PM (#3309069)

The magic number is 5.

The author is 100% correct. In the standings, the Orioles magic number against the Yankees to win the AL East is 5. Some combination of 5 Yankee wins and Oriole losses will eliminate them from a chance at the division title.

That's not what he meant? Oh, wait....

5. Dan The Mediocre Posted: August 30, 2009 at 03:16 PM (#3309084)

Off the top of my head, I am going to suggest that a .719 Winning Percentage in this situation is below average.

In 2009, teams scoring 5 or more runs win 77.6% of the time. Teams scoring less than 5 runs win 22.7% of the time.

6. The Most Interesting Man In The World Posted: August 30, 2009 at 03:50 PM (#3309101)

In 2009, teams scoring 5 or more runs win 77.6% of the time. Teams scoring less than 5 runs win 22.7% of the time.

Thanks. I think one could generalize that a below .500 team would be below average for most run increments.

7. jingoist Posted: August 30, 2009 at 04:35 PM (#3309129)

Which goes to show you that Jim Hunter has a keen grasp of the obvious.
But think about the context of this blog message.
Hunter is the O's play-by-play guy/studio host and works for MASN, or the Orioles who own most of MASN (Peter Angelos's network).
Hunter is stuck covering another season of underachieving orioles players. yes thay have added a few good new players, Adam Jones being the best and Reimold next best. He is looking for something to say positive, yet realistic.
since SABR types are not his audience 41 and 16 looks good to him and many of his readers 9whoever they are).

He filted with the crux of the Orioles problem: their pitching sucks.
Period.
Guthrie is their #1; he'd be lucky to be a 3 or 4 on many pitching staffs.
Their bullpen is bullsh*t.
Brian Bass should never see the mound of an MLB game again this year.
The O's are paying Denys Baez over $7M; Chris ray has a 6.1 ERA; etc, etc, etc.

OK, enough preaching to the choir.

net, net: The O's are 20 games below mediocrity in yet another year of cellar dwelling in the AL East.

ps Brian Roberts has 48 2B's; this will be his 3rd year at 50 or more.

8. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: August 30, 2009 at 04:39 PM (#3309133)

Brian Roberts has 48 2B's; this will be his 3rd year at 50 or more.

The Orioles have martyred Brian Roberts career and it's a shame.

9. cardsfanboy

Posted: August 30, 2009 at 04:41 PM (#3309135)

Thanks. I think one could generalize that a below .500 team would be below average for most run increments.

I would think a worse than average runs allowed team would be below average for most run increments. I'm not sure winning percentage would really correlate as well as runs scored is already being firgured into this 'stat'.

10. jingoist Posted: August 30, 2009 at 05:02 PM (#3309143)

Brain Roberts resembles a young Craig Biggio somewhat - good line drive hitter and base stealer.
Brian doesn't have Biggio's HR power and no, he's not his equal.
But he has been one of the few quality players on this team for the past 8 or 9 years.
Hopefully Markakis, Reimold and Jones can play together for the next 8 or 10 years and Roberts might have a chance to play on a contender before he's done.

11. Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Molina Posted: August 30, 2009 at 05:03 PM (#3309144)

Hunter is stuck covering another season of underachieving orioles players. yes thay have added a few good new players, Adam Jones being the best and Reimold next best.

How's that new catcher coming along? I think I remember him being mentioned around here once or twice.

12. Chris Needham Posted: August 30, 2009 at 05:21 PM (#3309157)

Here's one... is Brian Roberts the best AL 2B of the 2000s? He certainly could be, owing to a lot of player movement among 2B.

13. Repoz

Posted: August 30, 2009 at 05:28 PM (#3309160)

Brian Roberts has 48 2B's; this will be his 3rd year at 50 or more.

Where he joins, I believe, only Paul Waner, Tris Speaker and Stan Musial with 3 or more 50 2B seasons.

Isn't that amazing, Suzyn!

14. Dave Spiwak Posted: August 30, 2009 at 05:32 PM (#3309166)

Teams win more when they score lots of runs. I didn't even have to read the whole article.

15. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: August 30, 2009 at 05:48 PM (#3309174)

So, the more runs you score, the more likely you are to win. I think I got it.

16. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: August 30, 2009 at 06:14 PM (#3309183)

So, the more runs you score, the more likely you are to win.

Has anybody checked the Mets?

17. Walt Davis Posted: August 30, 2009 at 07:01 PM (#3309206)

You win by scoring one more run than your opponent.

That explains the Cubs bullpen.

18. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: August 30, 2009 at 08:07 PM (#3309248)

It's what smart managers do to win ballgames!

19. Sleepy supports unauthorized rambling Posted: August 31, 2009 at 12:18 AM (#3309356)

Interesting that there's only been 83 seasons with 50+ doubles in MLB history. Pedroia (40) and Tejada (37) both have a shot at doing it a second time this year, as well, though they'll have to have exceptional Septembers to do so...

20. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: August 31, 2009 at 03:08 AM (#3309451)

It is kind of unusual. Using Pythagorean across different RS and holding RA = 5.3 (the O's average this year):

Runs Win Pct
0 .000
1 .034
2 .125
3 .243
4 .363
5 .471
6 .562
7 .636
8 .685
9 .743
10+ .780+

The O's are at:

Runs Win Pct
0 .000
1 .071
2 .154
3 .167
4 .250
5 .533
6 .583
7 1.00
8 .625
9 .900+

The big jump between 4-5 runs is unusual, but not necessarily indicative of anything. I've studied run distributions pretty extensively and found that deviations away from typical run-scoring or run-allowing patterns are mostly random.

21. The Most Interesting Man In The World Posted: August 31, 2009 at 03:39 AM (#3309473)

I would guess that the .625 for the Orioles 8 run games is in fact 5-3. I'm slightly amazed that the aggregate WPs aren't higher at that level.

22. Dan The Mediocre Posted: August 31, 2009 at 03:58 AM (#3309484)

I would guess that the .625 for the Orioles 8 run games is in fact 5-3. I'm slightly amazed that the aggregate WPs aren't higher at that level.

The league has a .862 record when scoring 8 runs. The problem for the Orioles is that they have crappy pitching, and have given up 9 or more runs 19 times (tied for 7th) and have had 3 of those get paired with games where they scored 8.

23. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: August 31, 2009 at 04:00 AM (#3309485)

I would guess that the .625 for the Orioles 8 run games is in fact 5-3. I'm slightly amazed that the aggregate WPs aren't higher at that level.

Yes. The sample sizes on a per-team basis is so small as to render it meaningless.

24. Belfry Bob Posted: August 31, 2009 at 04:52 AM (#3309505)

Jim brought this up with graphics on Friday night's game broadcast. I turned to my wife, who isn't a huge fan but knows math and logic. I said 'what's wrong with that picture?' after I froze the chart. she looked up from her book and said 'according to what you've told me over the years, that winning percentage with 5 runs isn't anything special.' She went back to her book, and I fast-forwarded through the rest of Jim's 'presentation.'

I ran into Jim years ago at the FanFest and talked on the way down the escalator. He told me he didn't read fan web pages or spend time on sabermetrics. Jim - it shows.

25. jingoist Posted: August 31, 2009 at 09:56 PM (#3310190)

How's that new catcher coming along? I think I remember him being mentioned around here once or twice.
I ddn't mention him 'cause he's so new - 66 games - and a .701 OPS wont win him rookie of the year.
I think he will probably be a real bonus to the org but he is causing some "unintended consequences" as a cathcer.
He's 6'5" and when he squats and sets a target for the pitchers, his "normal" position is higher than a normal catcher thus pitchers are leaving pitches higher in the zone than normal thus they are getting killed with belt-high line drives and HRs.

And I'm hopeful Luke Scott will someday be an across the board success at a position but he's 31 and time is running out on his career.

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MASN: Hunter: The magic number is 5 for the Orioles

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