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1. charityslave is thinking about baseball Posted: December 06, 2011 at 03:26 AM (#4007761)Of course, you could argue that the way the Mets handled young Doc wasn't the best way to handle a young player's development, given what unfolded. So the precedent kind of cuts both ways.
There's also that whole arb clock thing, too . . .
Yeah, they should have just let him go 26-2 with a 1.27 ERA and 350 K's in AAA.
They should let him dominate AA and AAA for half a season each, at least. I see no reason to promote a prospect (short of desperate need to fill a hole mid-season) unless he's shown mastery of each level.
A guy who's supposed to be as good as Harper should be one of the very best handful of performers at each mLB level before he is moved up. A 103 wRC+ in AA tells me he should go right back there.
Yeah, they should have just let him go 26-2 with a 1.27 ERA and 350 K's in AAA.
Pitchers are different b/c of the injury risk, and the less predictable aging curve. But, it's hard to argue that handling Gooden a little more gently (and keeping Mel Stottlemyre away from him) wouldn't have been better for the Mets in the long run.
They didn't win crap in '84 and '85, and Gooden was as good as he'd ever be from day 1 in the bigs.
That's an incredibly conservative way to promote prospects which pretty much no team follows.
Really? I'm not talking full season, but a couple of months of above avg. performance at each level doesn't seem conservative.
I mean, if you start Harper in AA, and if he does well, move him to AAA after 2 months, he could be in Washington by Sept. Is that conservative for a 19 y.o.?
On the contrary, putting a 19 y.o. with 147 mediocre AA PAs in the bigs seems wildly agressive.
Lots of elite talent skips levels, especially AAA.
e.g. Verlander dominates 2 levels in one year, but doesn't play AAA before being inserted into the rotation. Or the Brewers wait until Ryan Braun shows mastery of AAA before calling him up, and then finish 2 games out of the playoffs. These examples don't prove anything except that a case-by-case basis is probably the way to go.
Well, regardless of what Johnson says or does, there is absolutely zero chance that Harper starts the year in MLB. Simply for service time reasons, he will start at AA/AAA for a month or so to give them an extra year before he hits FA, even if they want to bring him up this year. So, what would you say if he plays for a month in AA and absolutely crushes it, is it then wildly aggressive to give him a shot at that point?
EDIT: Miguel Cabrera was 20 yrs old with 303 PA's in AA when he was called up. He did put up a 1.038 OPS in those AA PA's though.
EDIT: Miguel Cabrera was 20 yrs old with 303 PA's in AA when he was called up. He did put up a 1.038 OPS in those AA PA's though.
It's still aggressive, but not wildly so.
Marlins were in a pennant race, and needed the bat, so that fits my need exception.
Washington is unlikely to be in that position. If they're in it in July and can't find a decent OF, sure, bring him up if he's going good.
But, from a pure development and long-term value point of view, I don't see why you'd want him up before Sept.
If he's good, he's only getting better from 19 to 20, and you'll have 7 better years of control when the Nationals are a better team.
I don't think there is any chance Harper goes back to AA to start the season after what he did last year and in the AFL.
No matter what Davey or Rizzo said, there was always going to be some chance that Harper could play his way into the line-up with a strong spring performance. Articles like this probably increase the pressure on Harper, but there is a lot of pressure playing in the Major Leagues, so maybe it's not a bad idea to see how Harper reacts. If Harper really is the player the Nationals hope he is, bring him up when he's ready. It worked OK for Mantle & Griffey. It costs a bit on the arbitration clock, but this is an opportunity to change the franchise's relationship to its fanbase. How much more is the franchise worth with near sellouts every night and much higher TV ratings?
Where is the evidence that Harper would produce that? Did 19 y.o. Griffey and ARod produce sell-outs in the Kingdome? I don't think so.
Only winning consistently can do that.
SPs can do that for their starts (e.g. Fernandomania, Strasburg) but position players don't have that effect.
Actually, the Marlins were 35-39 and 13 GB when Cabrera made his debut. They got INTO a pennant race in large part because they promoted Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis (both from AA).
The sooner the Nats bring up Harper, the sooner the Yanks can sign him as a FA. I'd much rather get him at 26 than 27 or, God forbid, 28.
Huh, I missed that angle.
I changed my mind, every good prospect should be brought to the majors immediately.
If you are close to the playoffs and he's better than who you have, that seems like a reason.
The Nationals aren't that far away from winning, they added 10 & 11 wins the last two seasons, another jump like that and they're in the thick of the Wildcard race. DC fans really want to see Harper. They turned out for Strasburg and while it's different for a starting pitcher, if the Nationals are convinced Harper is ready, he can only help. If not this season, the expereince may accelerate Harper's development in 2013. The Nationals haven't begun to really tap the DC market, but the opportunity is still there. There's a lot to be said for making the effort while the Orioles are suffering the Agony of Angelos and the other DC sports franchises are mired in mediocrity.
In Griffey's first year attendance increased 27%. In the partial year that ARod came up attendance increased by 48%. In his first full year it increased another 66%. I think the Nats would settle for that.
I think things are completely different now. Baseball fans in Seattle were excited about Griffey coming up but with Harper I think the hype is deeper and much broader. The internet, highlight shows and all the new media has gotten the word out much earlier with more hype.
You wouldn't ever promote a guy for the sake of challenging him and seeing how he responds? Ridiculous.
If he's not performing above average, he's challenged.
Letting an 18-year-old pitch enough in Class A ball to strike out 300 guys and walk 112 over the length of a five-month minor league season? Yeah, you could argue that wasn't a good idea. You could argue that.
Woah. I had never seen that.
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