It's always dangerous to venture into this territory, but I think Guthrie's problems are largely psychological. He's a smart guy, and I often get the sense that he's overthinking everything instead of trusting his body to do its thing. Anyone read the Malcolm Gladwell article on choking vs. panicking? He defined choking as reverting back to a beginners mindset instead of letting your muscle memory take over. Guthrie often seems to fall victim to that, especially in pressure situations. You can almost see him guiding his pitches rather than just relaxing and throwing. The game on monday is a classic example. He was horrible in the first couple innings, and could barely find the strike zone. But once the orioles fell behind, he seemed to settle down and looked decent.

he might be better off in the bullpen, where he only has to use a couple pitches and doesn't have to think about going through the lineup multiple times.

Liriano was in a similar place last year. The arm was back but at times he had no idea what to throw and little hope it wouldn't be hit. There were some sad quotes from him later in the summer that made you wish someone would just hug him and send him home for a few weeks. He took some time off over the winter and then went and stomped all over winter league ball.

These days they're better at fixing problems in the sleeve than those in the hat. Too bad the winter break didn't manage to shake things loose for Guthrie. I hope he rights things and can reach his potential if for no other reason than making life hard for the rest of the AL East.

I'm looking forward to seeing him pitch today against the RedSox. Hoping he does well! I enjoy watching him pitch and think he can do well if he would just keep the ball low. Yes he did give up a bunch of dingers last year (and Monday lol) but I really think he will pull it together. Crossing fingers. I really like him. I recently did a pitching camp with him as he worksout at same facility I teach pitching lessons at during the winter months in Utah. He's a great guy! Wish him the best this year.

I'm going with "he was never that good to begin with." Guthrie's career minor-league ERA was 4.40. His only truly successful minor-league year was his age 27 season in AAA (3.14 ERA) but even that featured a K/BB ratio under 2 so it was hardly dominant (he walked more guys in the minors oddly enough). The O's gave him a ML shot at 28 and he had a couple of nice (lucky?) seasons, now he's back to the pitcher he always was.

Pitchers are different than hitters but it should be no surprise when a guy who doesn't make it to the majors (to stick) until age 28 turns back into a pumpkin. That's probably doubly true when, like Guthrie, the player's minor-league performance didn't justify an earlier shot.

I don't know why Guthrie would start "choking" now after two successful seasons. I'm going with "he’s just not as good as it looked like he was" and "AL hitters have caught up to him." He usually has trouble putting guys away without a strong out pitch. Somehow, he's managed to outperform his xFIP until last year.

The data say that Guthrie has lost a little bit on his fastball and that he's throwing it less. Since it was his best pitch in '07 and '08, I would go with that as the least tenuous explanation for his decline in performance. I think it's possible that guys outperform their FIP for reasons other than "luck," but they have a very slim margin for error; losing just a little bit of velocity and/or command on their best pitch will very likely push them off the tightrope.

I have no idea how his #1 looks this spring. The fan in me hopes desperately that his struggles are just those of a veteran working out the kinks and trying out a few new things, but the realist knows it could be something else entirely. Either way, the quality of his fastball is going to be the key to his season.