Somehow or another, those Orioles manage to keep on considerably outplaying their pythag and hanging in the wild card race despite a weak offense and a patchwork rotation. Whatever happens the rest of the way, you've got to give Showalter a heck of a lot of credit; he has done an outstanding job this season.

While you have to give Baltimore credit for sticking around, let's not forget that this team has actually not been very good for quite a while now. They were 27-14, at one point, and are now 57-51. They are 30-37 since the hot start. All the games count, of course, but at some point, they are probably either going to play better, or they will lose a bunch of games in a row. This is a 75-win team that continues to slowly fall back towards reality after a crazy-hot start.

They are 11-2 in extra-inning games.
They are 21-6 in one-run games.
They are 13-19 in games decided by 5 or more runs.

This is not a good team.

They are 30-37 since the hot start.

And they're .500 since the beginning of June.

There is no denying that this team is playing well above its talent level, but they sure are fun to watch. A wheel comes off, another unlikely wheel takes its place. MIguel Gonzalez! Revitalized Chris Tillman! Taylor Teagarden extra-inning gwerbie!

Unbelievably, and likely unsustainably hot Bullpen. Which might be 30% responsible for the unbelievable, and likely unsustainabe 21-6 record in one-run games.

But with 50 games left, it (Bud's 2nd wild card berth going to Balt) could happen.

This is a 75-win team that continues to slowly fall back towards reality after a crazy-hot start.

The O's haven't won 75 games since 2004, and before that the last time was 1999. 75 wins is a big improvement.

This is not a good team.

Yes, but we allow not good teams in the playoffs now. Let everyone in!

Why should the race always be to the swift, or the Jumble to the quick-witted?

Let everyone in!

That might be your only hope, AG#1F....

True talent is becoming less relevant as we get deeper and deeper into the season. If you figure the Orioles need to win 30 of their final 54 games (which would give them 87 wins) to be in the mix for a wild card spot, they have the following chance to do that based on their true talent and simple binomial probability:

.500 true talent: 25%
.475 true talent (77 wins over full season): 15%
.450 true talent (73 wins over full season): 8%
.425 true talent (69 wins over full season): 4%

The same probabilities of winning 87 games over a full season:

.500 true talent: 19%
.475 true talent (77 wins over full season): 7%
.450 true talent (73 wins over full season): 2%
.425 true talent (69 wins over full season): <1%

Baltimore has played 6 less home games so far and the next 7 games are against Seattle and KC at home. So there is that. But then 41 of their next 44 games are against teams in which the worst record as of right now is 53-55. I would think SoS would have to get factored in as well.

No one else is going to say it?

I thought it was pretty cool that Showalter brought up lineup simulations. While it clearly doesn't drive his decisionmaking, he does at least factor it in. I think that's pretty good on Showalter.

But then 41 of their next 44 games are against teams in which the worst record as of right now is 53-55.

Doesn't that describe pretty much the entire American League? Plus, it can be helpful to play other teams that are in the mix, so that a win ensures a loss for another contender.

I’m not sure that SOS is a huge factor at this point, but it probably does make it more likely that one of the wild cards will come out of the Central.

The Tigers play their final 13 games of the season against the Twins and Royals.

Doesn't that describe pretty much the entire American League?

Well, I doubt too many teams play a bunch of games against all three first place teams and two or three of the other WC contenders from here on out like the Orioles do.

Orioles-10 games left against bad records out 54
A's-19/54
Angels-18/53
Tigers-25/54
Rays-9/54
Red Sox-11/53

So the Orioles fit right in with their divisional mates but are at a distinct disadvantage when compared to their out of division foes.

I thought it was pretty cool that Showalter brought up lineup simulations. While it clearly doesn't drive his decisionmaking, he does at least factor it in. I think that's pretty good on Showalter.

Agree. The fact that old school guys like Showalter and even Ned Yost are willing to put their better hitters leadoff rather than some light-hitting speedster speaks well about how sabermetrics is infiltrating baseball.

I thought it was pretty cool that Showalter brought up lineup simulations. While it clearly doesn't drive his decisionmaking, he does at least factor it in. I think that's pretty good on Showalter.

I agree, but I'm not sure what it says about baseball orthodoxy that giving your best players the most playing time is seen as some kind of computer output.

So the Orioles fit right in with their divisional mates but are at a distinct disadvantage when compared to their out of division foes.

I don’t think it’s really a factor. BPro’s playoff odds simulation shows what they input into the model as true talent, so if you compare that to the expected wins you can back into their rest-of-season SoS.

In the AL, all teams are projected to be within 1 win of their true talent over the rest of the season. The Orioles actually outperform their true talent by the third most number of wins (after the Tigers and White Sox) in the AL. So that suggests that BPro thinks that playing 56% of their remaining games at home will offset a few extra games against tougher teams.

Yes, but we allow not good teams in the playoffs now. Let everyone in!

Yes, the world has changed horribly now. I fondly remember the days of yore where you had to be a good team to be allowed in the playoffs, and only great teams won the world series.

BPro expects a true talent .429 team to win 43.5% of their games from here on out. The Tigers are a true talent .545 team that they expect to win 55.7% of their games from here on out. Oakland is a true talent .477 team that they expect to win 46.3% of their games from here on out. I don't know if I buy all of that.

I agree, but I'm not sure what it says about baseball orthodoxy that giving your best players the most playing time is seen as some kind of computer output.

Wade Boggs hit mostly first or second through his career, and it wasn't considered particularly cutting edge or anything. There's still a weird backlash against anything seen as a sabr-y idea.

Wade Boggs hit mostly first or second through his career, and it wasn't considered particularly cutting edge or anything. There's still a weird backlash against anything seen as a sabr-y idea.

I remember the Royals announcers always making a big deal that Brian Downing hit leadoff despite being super slow.

They made a big deal about Jermey Giambi batting lead off.

Bellhorn batting lead off for the Cubs wasn't much of a big deal.

If Tillman can keep up anything like this performance, and if Hammel comes back healthy, this could be a pretty OK team coming down the stretch. I know, if, if, if.

If Tillman can keep up anything like this performance, and if Hammel comes back healthy, this could be a pretty OK team coming down the stretch. I know, if, if, if.

I'm just enjoying the ride, and also the new GM's habit of cutting guys who ain't producing. Really, Reimold going down alone after three weeks would have killed this club in past seasons. These days, nothing does.