Buster Olney ~ Not saying that Paul Konerko is a Hall of Famer, but his HOF resume is getting very interesting.
Jon Heyman ~ is paul konerko (.384 to lead the AL) the most under-rated player of alltime? i think so.
Konerko is at 30.9 fWAR and 26.1 bWAR for his career. He is 36 years old. He’s played more than 95 percent of his career games at first base. If we zero out the baserunning and fielding components of the WAR equations (which isn’t a very good idea even if you distrust those metrics, but let’s go with it for a second), we can get him to 38.3 fWAR and 36.6 bWAR. Hall of Very good territory, but ...
Clearly, the fact that Konerko just passed the 400-homer mark is helping fuel the resurgence of attention towards his career ... but when I sort by wRC+ for players with 5,000+ PA from 1990-2012 (which helps exclude guys playing out the tail ends of their careers in the early-90s), Konerko’s 122 wRC+ ranks just 57th out of 214 players in the sample. Going by total weighted runs above average, Konerko ranks just 44th (281.0 wRAA) since 1990. By the reckoning of both bWAR and fWAR, Konerko has produced only one 4.0+ WAR season in his entire career ... he also has five All-Star appearances and a single top-five MVP finish under his belt, for what those are worth.
I guess I’m not seeing what makes Konerko’s HOF resume “very interesting,” or what makes him so underrated to the extent that he could possibly be regarded as the “most underrated player of all time.” But, hey, hyperbole sells I guess.
Repoz
Posted: May 25, 2012 at 05:11 PM |
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1. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: May 25, 2012 at 05:29 PM (#4140286)And I think I'm voting for Jim McCormick as the most underrated player in baseball history. Regularly threw 500 innings, won 265 games, career ERA+ of 118. 72.2 BBRef WAR, which puts him right between Schilling and Glavine.
He doesn't have much of a shot at those numbers. He needs to average 30 homers a year until he's 40 to get 500, and he needs to average 150 hits a year until he's 40 to get 3000 hits. Those are basically his numbers from last year. He's been a regular since he was 19, and has stayed healthy. Otherwise, he's had three really good years, and a bunch of years where he was solidly above average, and a bunch of years where he was average or below. He's not remotely as good as, e.g. David Wright, or Alex Rodriguez, or Scott Rolen, to pick a few 3Bs from his era.
I'm not picking on Beltre - he's one of my favorite players to watch because he does so many things so differently, for better and/or for worse than every other player in the league. He's a good player, but he needs a great finish to his career to be a serious HOF candidate.
He's working deep into counts and he's zoning in, even on 0-2 counts, looking for balls he can drive.
This Paul Konerko of the last 3 years is not the Konerko of the previous 10.
If he does this for a few more years he can make an argument for the HOF. He'll have a peak of basically 4 or 5 years around a 140 OPS+, in addition to around 500 homeruns and 2500 hits.
Yea he isn't a very good 1B, but he's not a DH either.
If you're willing to throw out that crazy outlier 8 HR year in Safeco in '09 and use his 2008 HR total instead for "three years ago", it gives Beltre a 21% chance at 500 HR. Overall, it projects him for 2765 hits and 403 HR. (445 HR if you throw out that wacky 2009 season.)
I'm not saying you *should* throw out that 2009 HR total if you're trying to project his career, but if you believe it truly was an aberration and not predictive of his future, it's an interesting exercise.
Beltre is a very good to great fielder, and Wright is indifferent at best. I'd take Beltre over Wright pretty easily, though Wright is certainly young enough that he could take the lead in a couple years.
That's not right. He'll end the year with somewhere around 3,200 hits at the end of his age 33 season. Over the next six seasons, he'd have to average somewhere in the neighborhood of 133 hits.
I don't recall anyone with this strange career arc:
age 21-27 279/342/470 OPS+ = 108
age 28-33 276/361/509 OPS+ = 123
age 34-36 316/399/563 OPS+ = 157
be the time he's 42 , he'll be in Barry Lamar territory
Edit - McGwire (saved baseball!)
From B-R:
This is also discounting what Seattle did to his offensive numbers. Safeco field might be one of the most offensive depressing baseball stadiums in the country.
How long this late peak goes will determine how we look back on this thread whenever his career ends. But the shape of his career is unusual.
If Beltre has a normal decline he's pretty much a HOF lock by merit ... but not by narrative, which is pretty much what we're talking about here. He may even have negative narrative for the whole "Career Year In A Contract Year Then A Disappointing Following Season Offensively" thing. Plus a ton of his value is in defense, which is important in a "Pitchin' and Defense" way, but not in a Star Player way. Basically Beltre is going to be in trouble unless the Hall starts electing people based on non-tradiitional stats sometime in the next 15-20 years.
As for Beltre, the real question for his HoF chances are if you believe the defensive stats. If you do, he looks very much like a potential hall of famer. If not, then yeah, he doesn't come close. I believe the defensive numbers, having seen Beltre play and comparing him to both Rolen (best glove of the generation) and Wright (absolutely not the best glove of the generation). He's at 57.1 fWAR and 55.6 bWAR, with a 15.2 UZR/150 for his career at 3B. I wish we had reliable defensive numbers for Brooks Robinson, because I would love to be able to make an apples to apples comparison of him, Rolen, and Beltre.
If Rolen gets in, though, I expect Beltre to also get in. He has the easier offensive case and I get the sense that his glove is more respected.
Defense CAN be a key to being a star player. In fact, Adrian Beltre's career numbers are very similar to Brooks Robinson so far. Here's how they compare in my Player won-lost records. Through age 32, they're very, very similar. Brooks then had 5 more solid years and one lousy year as a regular beyond that, but that kind of finish is certainly well within the realm of possibility for Beltre from here on out. The big difference is that by the time he was 32, Brooks had won 10 Gold Gloves (with 6 more still to come) while Beltre has only won 3 Gold Gloves. Brooks also had a 1st, a 2nd, and 3rd in MVP voting vs. Beltre's 2nd. The postseason helped Brooks too, although his big World Series MVP year was his age 33 year (1970), which would be this year for Beltre, and at least Beltre's on a team that's likely to give him some postseason opportunities.
The key to Beltre's HOF candidacy is if he becomes recognized as the greatest defensive 3B of his generation. If he does that, helps the Rangers win a WS, and ages fairly gracefully, he might have a shot.
But Wright has really fallen off the last few years; through 2008 he was on a HOF trajectory and I would take him over Beltre, but he's regressed since then, though this year looks to be a huge bounceback. On the whole, Beltre is 33 and has 57 WAR, Wright is 29 and has 42.7. Wright has been awesome this year; if this signifies a return to the 2005-2008 form then he seems to be a better player than Beltre. Though when you look at how Beltre has hit since he left Safeco it definitely seems like the park hurt him even more than the standard park effect would have you believe.
Kiko, why do you think it is that Beltre doesn't have the defensive rep he deserves? Is it being overshadowed by Rolen, who's roughly the same caliber fielder, when he was in the NL?
Partly Rolen, but also, my impression at the time was that Beltre was viewed negatively in general as a Dodger. He came up very, very young, and I think was seen as an under-performer before his big 2004, which was dismissed as the guy finally playing up to his potential in a contract year. Then, he went to Seattle, appeared to suck again (at least partly because of park factors) and was viewed as a big disappointment. I think Beltre was seen as something of a slacker under-achiever for a long time.
In terms of raw Gold Gloves, he was losing out to Rolen while he was a Dodger (Rolen won the NL 3B GG Beltre's last 5 seasons as a Dodger) and then he switched leagues and it seemed to take a while for the AL voters to notice how good he was (partly because, as I said above, he was viewed as a big free agent flop in Seattle, I think).
He won a GG last year and it wouldn't be unheard of for that to start a little run of 4 or 5 straight GG's into Beltre's late 30's. If that happens, and he retires with 7 or 8 GG's in his career, he might still be able to salvage something closer to the rep he deserves.
Take it to the Yankee Stadium thread.
Jim McCormick won 30 games for me, including his first 20 starts, in Bill James Classic Baseball.
Konerko? Basically one team his whole career, so in addition to Chicago voters, all of the Al voters have been watching him. Based on AS appearances and MVP voting, considered a very good player for many years across his career. Finishing strong (he's 36, Beltre is in a strong phase but only 33). He's not a HOFer, but he could hang around on the ballot for a while with the "he did it the right way" crowd.
Konerko is interesting but it's hard to believe he won't cliff-dive sometime in the next 2-3 years.
ARod is one of the 10 best baseball players ever? Hmmm
Mantle, Mays, Musial, Williams,Ruth, Cobb,Bonds,DiMaggio, Aaron, Clemente, F. Robinson and I am just listing outfielders, mostly from the 1950's on.
Well, yes, listing outfielders seems to be all you're doing, because that certainly isn't a list of players better than Alex Rodriguez.
[20]The key to Beltre's HOF candidacy is if he becomes recognized as the greatest defensive 3B of his generation. If he does that, helps the Rangers win a WS, and ages fairly gracefully, he might have a shot.
The odds of the BBWAA electing all these 3B from this era (Chipper, A-Rod, Wright, Rolen, and Beltre) are remote, barring a sabermetric enlightment among the writers IMO.
Also, I don't buy the defensive stats on Konerko, or most first baseman for that matter. Sure, he doesn't have the most range. However, he rarely botches a play, is a great receiver for his infielders, and has one of the best arms at first base I've ever seen. Nobody turns the 3-6-3 double play better.
Except for probably every single left-handed first baseman in MLB.
I'm sure there are plenty of left handed first basemen that can't be relied on to make a strong, accurate throw.
Well, A-Rod and Chipper are locks, right? Wright really isn't from the same era as any of those guys anyway; he came up in 2004, which was 6 years after the last of the other 4 (Beltre, 1998) came up.
Though i know what you are saying, I would be a little surprised if one of Beltre and Rolen made it. Wright is too far away to make any real kind of judgement on, though I suppose it's possible the same is true for Beltre.
Safeco also fields one of the most offensive and depressing baseball TEAMS in the country...
Chipper, yes. A-Rod had a certain confession that may keep him out for 5 or 10 or 40 years. I certainly wouldn't consider him a BBWAA lock.
Rolen's problem will be his fragility. And with both of them, if the BBWAA doesn't elect them, at least they'll be consistent with past standards. :-)
I'm enjoying this ride after the miserable experience of 2011. So far pretty much all of KW's moves have been vindicated. From hiring Manto as hitting coach to moving Viciedo to LF to having faith in Dunn and Rios and Peavy.
The Sox are now 2nd in the AL in RD at +24. The only real concern right now is the health of John Danks; and honestly, with the way the offense is performing, he's an afterthought. They have plenty of pitching if this keeps up.
I agree with this. Paul Konerko's career arc is fascinating. I just did a PI search on BB-Ref. For batters thru age 33 (min. 3,000 PAs, since 1901), Paul Konerko ranks 416th in career OPS+ (116). For batters age 34 and over (min. 1,000 PAs, since 1901), Paul Konerko ranks 5th (157 thru yesterday). That's just bizarre.
The Sox offense is just buzzing right now. In the month of May:
Konerko is .378/.471/.595
Dunn is .247/.398/.642
Viciedo is .293/.329/.547
De Aza is .326/.404/.391
And this was before today's 14-run outing against Cleveland today (2 hits for Dunn, 4 for Konerko, 3 from Viciedo & a home run).
Rk Player BtWins OPS+ Rbat PA From To1 Mark McGwire 18.38 197 186 1663 1998 2000
2 Cap Anson 14.03 167 135 1655 1886 1888 H
3 Paul Konerko 10.05 157 96 1447 2010 2012
4 Stan Musial 13.59 156 121 1916 1955 1957 H
5 Dan Brouthers 11.25 155 124 1643 1892 1894 H
6 Jack Fournier 10.77 154 114 1598 1924 1926
7 Mickey Mantle 10.15 153 85 1493 1966 1968 H
8 Hank Greenberg 9.06 152 85 1426 1945 1947 H
9 Lou Gehrig 9.00 151 99 1422 1937 1939 H
10 Willie Stargell 9.29 148 81 1618 1974 1976 H
11 Willie McCovey 7.32 147 60 1242 1972 1974 H
12 Rafael Palmeiro 11.34 146 108 2066 1999 2001
13 Harmon Killebrew 10.68 146 85 1821 1970 1972 H
14 Johnny Mize 9.62 146 101 1792 1947 1949 H
Don't forget A.J. Pierzynski, who is .309/.349/.531 in May.
If John Danks pitches like himself after coming off of the DL, I think the Sox have a great shot to win their division. And with Peavy/Danks/Sale at the top of their rotation, they could make some noise in October.
I'm a pessimist at heart, so I'm trying not to get my hopes up. I'm imagining Konerko falling back down to earth, Ramirez never breaking out of his season-long slump, Peavy sputtering and/or getting injured, and the bullpen struggling.
This has been a fun run though. It's looking like nobody will run away with the division, so as long as the Sox stay near .500 they definitely have a chance at winning the Central. And they're only a half game out of a Wild Card spot!
As a reference point, and as evidence of the consensus, ELO currently has A. Rodriguez 15th. The original comment about him being in the top 10 or 20 was, by this method, accurate, assuming one is ranking only position players. Also, nine of the players ranked above him are outfielders, including most of the guys listed in the quote above. There is a PED penalty built into ELO, which is why a guy like Foxx can show up ahead of ARod.
Edited for completeness
Using Fangraphs' numbers, he's tied for 5th with 2.8. If Paul Konerko has a 9 WAR season, the Sox will probably win the division and he might even by MVP. He can't keep this up obviously, but I can see 350/450/600 with something like 30 hr and 120 rbi.
Konerko has power to all fields and is patient enough to work counts and walk when guys pitch around him. So far, the Chicago offense has more than enough around him to make the opposition pay.
I'm trying to keep my hopes in check, but it's getting difficult!
I still think they're a longshot for the playoffs.
This game probably deserves its own thread. Relevant numbers from the two starting pitchers:
Sale - 7.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 15 K
Moore - 7 IP, 4 H, 2R, 1 BB, 10 K
Both were as dominant as the lines look. Sale was hitting 95, mixing in a good change-up and had what seemed like two breaking pitches working -- a more slurvey slider used to backdoor and catch easy strikes, as well as one that was harder and mostly thrown in the dirt. Dunn hit another absolute tater, too -- last row of the RF bleachers at the Trop.
This was a very satisfactory game as a Sox fan. Kenny Williams' pet project Chris Sale shows elite, ace stuff (and no hint of arm pain) and then Dunn provides the margin with that 440 bullet, as new pickup Orlando Hudson makes a key snag to help preserve the lead.
This team is fun right now, great mix of veterans and youth.
Not with 2 wild cards and playing in the AL Central. I'd say they are around even odds, maybe even 60/40.
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