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Thursday, March 06, 2014

Matt Carpenter, Cardinals closing in on long-term extension

6/50 seems like a good deal all around.

SoCalDemon Posted: March 06, 2014 at 03:38 PM | 11 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: cardinals

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   1. cardsfanboy Posted: March 06, 2014 at 08:59 PM (#4667502)
I'll be ecstatic with any deal for Carpenter, by all accounts he's the hardest working player on the team. I think Wainwright made a joke about how he(Wainwright) has never arrived to the stadium/practice earlier than Carpenter does. His demeanor seems to be one of someone who is going to take the job seriously and hopefully that means he continues to perform at the high level he established last year.
   2. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: March 06, 2014 at 09:15 PM (#4667509)
That's the Cardinal way! The best fans in baseball continue to be satisfied.
   3. Walt Davis Posted: March 06, 2014 at 09:34 PM (#4667520)
I've got my doubts -- he's already 28, the minor-league track record's not great, didn't even make AAA until 25 -- but if it is 6/$50 that's low enough not to matter much. Obviously if he puts up 10 WAR over the next two years then it's a great deal.

Hard to find comps but the b-r sim scores pull up a couple of decent ones. Bill Mueller who put up 13 WAR from 28-33 with his one big season in Boston (otherwise mediocre). Josh Donaldson, the Carpenter of the AL. Maybe Corey Koskie with a healthy 19 WAR.
   4. SoCalDemon Posted: March 07, 2014 at 10:36 AM (#4667672)
Sure there is some risk, but he now has over a 1000 AB at 138 OPS+, and if his defense last year was legit (I did not see him much live, but everyone I know, and all of the statistical systems, suggest that after a rough first month or two he seemed to get the hang of 2B pretty well), that is a lot of room to fall. He 6+ WAR last year, nobody is forecasting or expecting everywhere near that. If he can repeat his 2012 (I think what is more likely is slightly worse offense with better defense than 2012), I think everyone will be happy with this deal. And if it turns out he really turned a second corner last year, and he's closer to a 4-5 WAR player than a 2.5 WAR player, than this becomes a fantastic deal. I don't think anybody expects that, and it is not necessary for this deal to work out, but after last year it is certainly in the realm of possibility. His situation is very similar to Donaldson in my eyes, in that if you value him as a superduperstar, that would be a problem, but if last year makes you think Donaldson can be a true 3-4 WAR player, that's a guy I'd lock up for a few year, and there would be a lot of upside. Late bloomers bring there own type of risk, but...this deal (if it indeed for 6/50) seems like a fair deal balancing that risk he just splats with the very real possibility they get a few more years within shouting distance of last year.
   5. BDC Posted: March 07, 2014 at 11:16 AM (#4667707)
One path might be Chris Sabo's: rookie (of the year!) at 26, legitimately a very good player for a few years, but not up to much after he turned 30. And what the heck, the 1990 WS pennant must still be flying in Cincinnati :)
   6. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: March 07, 2014 at 11:18 AM (#4667713)
#3--Agree agree. If I'm the Cardinals, I'm perfectly content going year-to-year with him. He wouldn't have become a free agent until his age-32 season.
   7. esseff Posted: March 07, 2014 at 12:36 PM (#4667792)
the minor-league track record's not great, didn't even make AAA until 25


That's less than two years after signing his first pro contract (and he made the majors that same season). Also, I'd say the .858 minor-league OPS -- including .904 at Double-A and .874 at Triple-A -- is pretty impressive for an infielder, especially since there's not much of a home-run component.

   8. Sleepy supports unauthorized rambling Posted: March 08, 2014 at 12:01 AM (#4668173)
Isn't Zobrist a pretty good comp? Debut at 25, first full season at 27/28, infielder, etc. Z has more power and better defense but doesn't have Carpenter's amazing eye, and carp hits for higher average.

6/50 does seem a bit high, but I guess it buys out 2 FA years; he has more service time than I thought.
   9. musial6 Posted: March 08, 2014 at 01:43 AM (#4668188)
The Cardinals under Mozeliak have a pretty good track record of locking up the right guys. Going into 2013, the organization was willing to bet long on Allen Craig but not David Freese. Now they're betting long on Matt Carpenter.

The thing about Matt Carpenter is that he's got a pretty high floor. It's not like he's going to regress into some kind of albatross. At best they've locked up a perennial all-star and core member of championship nucleus at a bargain price. At worst they're overpaying for a guy who had 1 great year and will be an adequate everyday player at 2nd or 3rd for the foreseeable future.

It's not a very SABR line of thinking, but the Cardinals organization clearly puts some value in rewarding their guys for a job well done. Not in a Phillies "let's re-sign all of our declining stars to long term deals" way, but aggressively rewarding guys with 2-4 years of service time who have played a significant role in a division/league/WS title with moderate (compared to the money thrown around in FA) extensions. In essence they are sending a message to the up and comers that "if you help us win, we will take care of you".
   10. cardsfanboy Posted: March 08, 2014 at 04:34 AM (#4668195)
It's not a very SABR line of thinking, but the Cardinals organization clearly puts some value in rewarding their guys for a job well done. Not in a Phillies "let's re-sign all of our declining stars to long term deals" way, but aggressively rewarding guys with 2-4 years of service time who have played a significant role in a division/league/WS title with moderate (compared to the money thrown around in FA) extensions. In essence they are sending a message to the up and comers that "if you help us win, we will take care of you".


More importantly it tells other players they are willing to treat you with respect if you earn it.... Post 6 is exactly the kind of thing you expect from a franchise like the cubs or Mess..
   11. Jim Wisinski Posted: March 08, 2014 at 06:45 AM (#4668197)
Isn't Zobrist a pretty good comp? Debut at 25, first full season at 27/28, infielder, etc. Z has more power and better defense but doesn't have Carpenter's amazing eye, and carp hits for higher average.


Not sure what you mean by Carpenter's amazing eye being an advantage over Zobrist, Zobrist strikes out a bit more but has usually walked more as well, his BB/K ratio in four different seasons is better than Carpenter's last year.

I wouldn't try to use Zobrist as a good comp for anyone though. He went from SS prospect projected as averagish overall to guy who looked utterly overmatched in the majors and was poor defensively to great hitter and GG caliber 2B/RF who could also play anywhere else on the field well enough (and now seems pretty solid at SS too interestingly enough). That was in the span of about four seasons; very unusual career path.

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