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Wednesday, December 19, 2018

Matt Harvey, Angels Reportedly Agree to 1-Year, $11 Million Contract

Matt Harvey reportedly will have a new home in 2019.

The former New York Mets and Cincinnati Reds pitcher reportedly is set to sign with the Los Angeles Angels on a one-year deal, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

According to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports and Jon Heyman of Fancred, Harvey’s deal could be worth as much as $14 million, with a base salary of $11 million and up to $3 million in incentives.

The sort of deal that explains why Mike Trout will spend next October sitting on his porch and whittling.

 

QLE Posted: December 19, 2018 at 07:58 AM | 68 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: angels, matt harvey

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   1. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: December 19, 2018 at 11:03 AM (#5799018)
Eh. Once he was freed from the Mets, he put up 1.3 pitching War for the Reds in 128 innings. Doesnt seem like they bad of a deal
   2. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: December 19, 2018 at 11:18 AM (#5799029)
The sort of deal that explains why Mike Trout will spend next October sitting on his porch and whittling.
In fairness, Mike Trout seems like the kind of guy who would really enjoy whittling.
   3. JL72 Posted: December 19, 2018 at 11:22 AM (#5799032)
Eh. Once he was freed from the Mets, he put up 1.3 pitching War for the Reds in 128 innings. Doesnt seem like they bad of a deal


Agreed. Seems like a reasonable gamble. If he has turned a corner after getting out of NY, they have a decent pitcher at a very reasonable price. If not, it is only a one year deal.
   4. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 19, 2018 at 11:22 AM (#5799033)
Eh. Once he was freed from the Mets, he put up 1.3 pitching War for the Reds in 128 innings. Doesnt seem like they bad of a deal

But what's the upside for the Angels? They should've at least got a reasonable option year or two.

Say 1/8, with two options at $15M, each with a $3M buyout.
   5. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: December 19, 2018 at 11:33 AM (#5799044)
I noted in the dugout yesterday that Harvey is at -0.1 bWAR over the last three seasons - those Mets games count too.
That’s a pessimistic view - his peripherals and fWAR are better than that but under no circumstances would I pay him eight figures next year.
   6. BrianBrianson Posted: December 19, 2018 at 11:45 AM (#5799056)
Eight figures don't buy what it used to in free agency.

I'd bring a tunnelling electron microscope to his physical, but $11 million is a below average player in free agent dollars. He's 30, he's put up five WAR seasons twice, and he's struggled with injury. There's considerable upside if he's healthy (or perhaps, removed from an unhelpful environment). There's only $11 million in downside, which is not a lot, in context.
   7. Red Voodooin Posted: December 19, 2018 at 11:47 AM (#5799057)
But what's the upside for the Angels?


He pitches really well and helps the Angels to the playoffs next year?

Say 1/8, with two options at $15M, each with a $3M buyout.


I would imagine that they didn't sign this type of deal because Harvey had no desire to sign such a deal. In fact, I'm not sure I've ever seen a deal structured like that, except for maybe a pitcher who was gonna miss all or most of season 1 coming back from TJS or something...
   8. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 19, 2018 at 11:51 AM (#5799062)
He pitches really well and helps the Angels to the playoffs next year?

Do you really think the Angels can contend? On paper the team looks just awful.


I would imagine that they didn't sign this type of deal because Harvey had no desire to sign such a deal.


Then guaranteeing him $11M is pretty dumb.
   9. JL72 Posted: December 19, 2018 at 12:11 PM (#5799068)
He pitches really well and helps the Angels to the playoffs next year?


Or he pitches really well and they flip him for a prospect or two at the trade deadline.
   10. Zonk would like to buy all your Greenlands Posted: December 19, 2018 at 12:13 PM (#5799069)
Who's the last pitcher that looked spectacular in his early/mid 20s, crashed hard with injury and ineffectiveness, then recovered to have a nice run in his 30s?

I can't think of one... Appier got hurt, took a year or two to get back to cromulent form, but his dip wasn't as precipitous or longlasting. Gooden was pretty much just lucky to make it back into rotations occasionally.

Our old friend Frank Tanana might best fit the bill - looked like a potential HoFer... then a long period of suck before recovering into a cromulent workhorse for half a dozen years.

So, at long last, we have our answer: Something to do with Frank Tanana.
   11. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 19, 2018 at 12:14 PM (#5799071)
Who's the last pitcher that looked spectacular in his early/mid 20s, crashed hard with injury and ineffectiveness, then recovered to have a nice run in his 30s?

Sabathia?
   12. Howie Menckel Posted: December 19, 2018 at 12:18 PM (#5799073)
see Foltynewicz, Mike on why this can work.
   13. Zonk would like to buy all your Greenlands Posted: December 19, 2018 at 12:22 PM (#5799074)
IDK - Sabathia basically had a nice, even and perhaps expected slide until he blew up at what... age 33 and 34? And then basically made a nice little comeback to separate himself from the HoVG into what looks like a probably HoFer.
   14. SoSH U at work Posted: December 19, 2018 at 01:17 PM (#5799107)
Who's the last pitcher that looked spectacular in his early/mid 20s, crashed hard with injury and ineffectiveness, then recovered to have a nice run in his 30s?


I don't know if he ever looked spectacular, but Darren Oliver was a solid pitcher in his early to mid 20s, collapsed terribly in his late 20s to the point that he didn't pitch in the majors at all during his age 34 season, then came back to pitch great ball from 36-42 (in fact, he improved his ERA+ for five straight seasons from Age 37 to 41).

   15. Nasty Nate Posted: December 19, 2018 at 01:19 PM (#5799109)
Who's the last pitcher that looked spectacular in his early/mid 20s, crashed hard with injury and ineffectiveness, then recovered to have a nice run in his 30s?
Peavy almost fits. Lackey maybe. Clay Buchholz could be on that path. Ryan Dempster had some decent years in his 30's.

Basically what I'm saying is the 2013 Red Sox rotation.
   16. PreservedFish Posted: December 19, 2018 at 01:22 PM (#5799112)
Bartolo Colon!
   17. The Yankee Clapper Posted: December 19, 2018 at 01:26 PM (#5799114)
The sort of deal that explains why Mike Trout will spend next October sitting on his porch and whittling.

The Angels are merely accommodating Mike Trout's wish to not be distracted by baseball during the hurricane season.
   18. Davo Has Marianne Mindset Posted: December 19, 2018 at 01:44 PM (#5799122)
Scott Kazmir and Rich Hill, for sure. Bruce Chen, kinda, but he was more of a classic “late bloomer.”

We’ll soon see if Anibal Sanchez’s resurgence is for real.
   19. Tom Nawrocki Posted: December 19, 2018 at 02:06 PM (#5799127)
Jamie Moyer wasn't exactly spectacular in his early 20s, but he crashed hard enough to spend his entire age-29 season in the minors, before recovering to have a nice run in his 30s, in his 40s, in his 50s...
   20. Biscuit_pants Posted: December 19, 2018 at 02:09 PM (#5799130)
Would someone like Rick Reuschel count?
   21. BrianBrianson Posted: December 19, 2018 at 02:14 PM (#5799133)
Who's the last pitcher that looked spectacular in his early/mid 20s, crashed hard with injury and ineffectiveness, then recovered to have a nice run in his 30s?


Jamie Moyer peaked at 3.5 WAR before he was run out of MLB in 1992. So, not quite spectacular. But quite good.

Roger Clemens certainly had a big decline, but it was in his early 30s, and he really only declined down to "spectacular"?

Jimmy Key was below average from 28-30, with strong peaks on either side.

Mike Hampton turned in 3 solid seasons in Atlanta.

It happens.

   22. BrianBrianson Posted: December 19, 2018 at 02:58 PM (#5799152)
I would imagine that they didn't sign this type of deal because Harvey had no desire to sign such a deal.

Then guaranteeing him $11M is pretty dumb.


Never signing a free agent is one way to avoid bad signings.
   23. Walt Davis Posted: December 19, 2018 at 03:28 PM (#5799170)
If we're counting guys who reinvented themselves as relievers, there's Eckersley. He never sucked but from ages 25-31 he averaged a 100 ERA+, roughly alternating between good and bad. From 20-24, he had a 128 in 1150 innings; then later those 6 years of relief with 475 IP of 178 ERA+ that put him in the HoF cuz ... then another 6 years of 300 innings of not very good relief (104 ERA+).

Greinke got about as lost as you can get at 21-22 and looked just normally solid from 26-28 following his monster year.

And of course the king of the comeback: Chris Carpenter. He wasn't spectacular in his early 20s but he was good. The names escape me now but wasn't Dave Duncan pulling off lesser versions of this with everybody who turned up in the Cards' rotation for a few years.
   24. Walt Davis Posted: December 19, 2018 at 03:32 PM (#5799174)
As to the signing ... meh. It's one year. $11 M is probably a bit high but he's just being paid for about 1.5 WAR. Given all their injury issues, you'd think maybe the Angels would prefer a reliable innings-eater. As to playoff chances, last year the Angels got 5.7 WAA out of their position players (I wonder how) and -5.4 WAA out of their pitchers. Put together an average pitching staff and they're on the edge of WC contention. Granted, if each average pitcher is gonna cost them $11 M, they're gonna have a tough time pulling that off.
   25. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: December 19, 2018 at 03:39 PM (#5799177)
Who's the last pitcher that looked spectacular in his early/mid 20s, crashed hard with injury and ineffectiveness, then recovered to have a nice run in his 30s?


Justin Verlander. Seasonal WAR starting at age 28:

8.6
8.1
4.3
0.9
2.3
7.1
6.5
6.2

OK, he wasn't exactly ineffective in the middle there, but way below his before and after.
   26. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: December 19, 2018 at 03:46 PM (#5799180)
Vida Blue is all over the place. He had a spectacular year as a 21 YO, winning the CYA and MVP. Then three straight below average years, followed by 4 straight above to well above average, followed by a well below average one, followed by three more above to well above.
   27. Adam Starblind Posted: December 19, 2018 at 03:55 PM (#5799187)
considerable upside if he's healthy (or perhaps, removed from an unhelpful environment).


It will be good for him to be away from the temptations of New York City and safe in Los Angeles where he cannot get into trouble. ;-)
   28. Adam Starblind Posted: December 19, 2018 at 03:59 PM (#5799189)
Vida Blue is all over the place.


He is inner-circle all time great baseball names.
   29. Howie Menckel Posted: December 19, 2018 at 04:25 PM (#5799203)
Vida's middle name is Rochelle, which is weird but not weird enough
   30. Adam Starblind Posted: December 19, 2018 at 04:36 PM (#5799207)
What if it was "Jew"?
   31. bbmck Posted: December 19, 2018 at 04:51 PM (#5799216)
To earn the contract by MLB free agent standards, pitching WAR only:
Jhoulys Chacín: 5.7 and 4.2 WAR by Age 25; 3 seasons of 50 G, 37 GS, 0.7 WAR; 29 G, 17 GS and 0.2 WAR after a mid-season trade in the 3rd of those years; Age 29: 2.5 WAR; Age 30: 2 WAR; Age 31: 2nd year of 2/15.5

Rebounds "worth" $11mil are pretty rare why Jhoulys made $1.75mil at Age 29 and why Tim Lincecum "only" got $2mil in guaranteed money from the Angels. Another win for Scott Boras, he's pretty good at his job.
   32. JAHV Posted: December 19, 2018 at 05:09 PM (#5799234)
As an Angels fan, meh describes this deal perfectly. If he pitches like he did for the Reds last season, he'll be a cromulent 4th starter in a rotation full of cromulent 4th starters. At least until two or three of the 4th starters get hurt, at which point the Angels will replace them with 6th starters picked up off the waiver wire.

I think the dollars are probably $3 or $4 million too much, and I'd rather those have been offered to Wilson Ramos to get him off of the East Coast, but maybe they wouldn't have mattered. I'd also rather they be offered to Grandal. We'll see what else Eppler has up his sleeve. I think the Angels can be good next season, but it will take some things going right for a change.
   33. A triple short of the cycle Posted: December 19, 2018 at 08:16 PM (#5799298)
Scott Kazmir?

As an A's fan who loathes Matt Harvey, this is great. I was worried the A's might sign him, thankfully (in this instance) they are too cheap. Here's hoping the A's knock Harvey around a few times.
   34. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 19, 2018 at 08:30 PM (#5799310)
I was about to say Tim Lincecum, but then I reread the post and saw the thing about bouncing back.
   35. Walt Davis Posted: December 19, 2018 at 10:30 PM (#5799348)
Casting even farther back than Tanana there was Gary Nolan although his bounce back only lasted a couple of seasons before his arm fell off for the 2nd time.

Also a nice example of the different eras. Through age 28, he had about 1600 IP -- despite missing two full seasons, a half season and about two other quarter seasons. He debuted at 19 with 227 IP, 147 ERA+, league-leading K/9 and 6.3 bWAR.

Also he finished 3rd in RoY voting. An award tip: don't share a rookie season with Tom Seaver. Dick Hughes was also very good but Nolan did deserve 2nd. Not knowing anything about Hughes, he must be one of the greatest flash-in-the-pan stories ever. Signed at 19020, he debuted at age 28, came 2nd in RoY at age 29 (123 ERA+, 4.2 bWAR), crapped out, shoved to the pen and probably hurt at 30, 35 IP all the way back at A-ball at 31 and career finished.
   36. Shredder Posted: December 20, 2018 at 01:13 AM (#5799370)
I think the dollars are probably $3 or $4 million too much
What does this even mean, though? I mean, who cares? It's one year, it's not my money, an it won't keep them from making any other team changing moves. It's not like they're going to miss out on signing Machado because of the extra $3MM-$4MM they gave to Matt Harvey for one year.
   37. Howie Menckel Posted: December 20, 2018 at 01:41 AM (#5799371)
Dick Hughes 1968 Topps
I still have this card.

I assume his terrifying mound presence that rattled opposing batters
:)

btw there are tons of hilarious cards from that set. you could put together a couple of teams worth of beer league softball looks. 150 pound guys, 250 pound guys, crew cuts, vacant stares, muscle-less wonders, etc.

as a youngster, I couldn't believe these guys were MLB players.
   38. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: December 20, 2018 at 04:50 AM (#5799377)
Vida's middle name is Rochelle, which is weird but not weird enough

What if it was "Jew"?



I wish it was "Meatavegamin."
   39. Nasty Nate Posted: December 20, 2018 at 08:10 AM (#5799384)
It's one year, it's not my money, an it won't keep them from making any other team changing moves. It's not like they're going to miss out on signing Machado because of the extra $3MM-$4MM they gave to Matt Harvey for one year.
I'm not sure this is the best way of looking at things. Sure, no individual inefficient signing hurts a team much, but they add up and can cumulatively hurt a team - unless they just raise raise raise payroll.
   40. PreservedFish Posted: December 20, 2018 at 08:30 AM (#5799390)
I'm not sure this is the best way of looking at things.


I think it's a much healthier and more productive way of looking at things than fretting about how your team - your team that has been somewhat inept for years and is most certainly not an efficiently spent $3-4M away from the playoffs - spends $3-4M.
   41. Rally Posted: December 20, 2018 at 08:43 AM (#5799397)
your team that has been somewhat inept for years and is most certainly not an efficiently spent $3-4M away from the playoffs - spends $3-4M.


They just have to spend that 3-4m efficiently. For example, last year on the free agent market they picked up a 2.7 WAR hitter who also gave them 1.2 WAR on the mound. All for a league minimum salary. They just need to replicate that about 6 more times. Doing so would give them one hell of an offense. Trout, Upton, Simmons, and 6 Ohtanis (the 7th would be pitching or resting up from/preparing for a pitching appearance). Though the 6 new Ohtanis would only combine to fill 2 spots in the pitching rotation.
   42. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: December 20, 2018 at 09:15 AM (#5799411)
I’m not thoroughly opposed to giving a contract like this to someone who you think will be a cromulent THIRD (not fourth) starter and who has a history of being more than that. (Though it still seems like too much money).
However, that (an adequate number four) May still overvalue this guy.

Put another way, people made fun of the Lance Lynn signing (which I thought was a’ight) - I’d take Lynn over Harvey pretty quickly, barring having learned of a significant mechanical improvement on the latter’s part.
   43. Bug Selig Posted: December 20, 2018 at 01:23 PM (#5799556)
I’d take Lynn over Harvey pretty quickly, barring having learned of a significant mechanical improvement on the latter’s part.
99.9% of people who talk about pitching mechanics are completely full of ####. As are people who make up statistics.
   44. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: December 20, 2018 at 01:51 PM (#5799571)
Yes, but we also know that there's predictive power in trackman/mechanical/whatever type stuff with pitchers in ways we don't see with hitters.
   45. Lars6788 Posted: December 20, 2018 at 02:40 PM (#5799604)
I don’t think much of Harvey and he maybe far removed from his prime despite his listed age but he was a rising star, so there is the idea that maybe he has some upside.

This is like a Brett Anderson signing or a Ben Sheets signing.

   46. Yanigan Posted: December 20, 2018 at 05:11 PM (#5799660)
Roy Halladay had only one rotten season, but you have to admit it was a doozy.
   47. bobm Posted: December 20, 2018 at 08:29 PM (#5799703)
I think it's a much healthier and more productive way of looking at things than fretting about how your team - your team that has been somewhat inept for years and is most certainly not an efficiently spent $3-4M away from the playoffs - spends $3-4M.

Spoken like a (fellow) Mets fan.
   48. JAHV Posted: December 21, 2018 at 03:38 AM (#5799748)
What does this even mean, though? I mean, who cares? It's one year, it's not my money, an it won't keep them from making any other team changing moves. It's not like they're going to miss out on signing Machado because of the extra $3MM-$4MM they gave to Matt Harvey for one year.


It might mean not being able to afford Grandal. Or Kikuchi. Or someone else who provides actual value and isn't a hope and a prayer. Moreno seems to be keeping Eppler's budget pretty tight, so I do think $3-$4 million matter.
   49. JAHV Posted: December 21, 2018 at 03:43 AM (#5799749)
I think it's a much healthier and more productive way of looking at things than fretting about how your team - your team that has been somewhat inept for years and is most certainly not an efficiently spent $3-4M away from the playoffs - spends $3-4M.


I disagree with both parts of this. I think the Angels, with reasonable health luck from the pitching staff, are pretty close to a playoff team. And I think that in their case, with what looks like an owner who has a pretty set budget and a lot of big contracts on the books, the margins are important.

That said, I'm not down on the signing. I would have liked it to be cheaper, but I think it's got some upside to it.
   50. PreservedFish Posted: December 21, 2018 at 07:58 AM (#5799764)
Caring about an inefficiently spent $3-4M, when that amount can barely get you a non-entity like Matt Adams or Chris Owings, when the team is likely to spend nearly $200M, in a sport you cannot confidently peg any team's performance within 15 wins, is arguing how many angels can dance on a pinhead. I get it, that's what people do here, we scout Rule 5 draft prospects etc, but let's just realize it's not a big deal.
   51. Baldrick Posted: December 21, 2018 at 08:09 AM (#5799766)
$4 million here, $4 million there. Pretty soon, you're talking real money.
   52. PreservedFish Posted: December 21, 2018 at 08:11 AM (#5799768)
Not that soon.
   53. Howie Menckel Posted: December 21, 2018 at 09:20 AM (#5799785)
12. Howie Menckel Posted: December 19, 2018 at 12:18 PM (#5799073)
see Foltynewicz, Mike on why this can work.
   54. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 21, 2018 at 10:51 AM (#5799822)
I think the Angels, with reasonable health luck from the pitching staff, are pretty close to a playoff team.

Heaney, Skaggs, Harvey, Cahill, Barria, Tropeano, Pena does not remotely look like a playoff rotation. FG projects them for ~8 WAR combined, 4.6 of that from Heaney and Skaggs.

Given that the top-4 have all missed at least a full season worth of starts in the last three years, some of them close to two full seasons, it's hard to say what "reasonable health" looks like.

If they get 500 IP out of their top 4 I think they'd be very lucky.
   55. Banta Posted: December 21, 2018 at 11:15 AM (#5799836)
All teams overpay players sometimes. Teams that are managed well don't let it negatively impact them. If you're worried about an overpay, you're probably really just admitting that you're not confident in management overall.
   56. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 21, 2018 at 11:31 AM (#5799850)
All teams overpay players sometimes. Teams that are managed well don't let it negatively impact them. If you're worried about an overpay, you're probably really just admitting that you're not confident in management overall.

These things are correlated. Overpays make you question management.
   57. BrianBrianson Posted: December 21, 2018 at 11:36 AM (#5799854)
Pretty much by definition ~half of your contracts should be overpays.
   58. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 21, 2018 at 11:48 AM (#5799858)
Pretty much by definition ~half of your contracts should be overpays.

If you include only FA deals, and are a middling front office, that might be true. Given that players are, and should be, far more risk averse than teams, I'd argue in an efficient market with multi-year deals, the teams should come out ahead more often than not.

The problem with the actual FA market is that teams use their "saving" on the reserve clause players to overpay FAs. So, it's not really efficient.

   59. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: December 21, 2018 at 12:03 PM (#5799864)

Pretty much by definition ~half of your contracts should be overpays.

Not at the time you sign the contract...
   60. JAHV Posted: December 21, 2018 at 01:54 PM (#5799913)
Heaney, Skaggs, Harvey, Cahill, Barria, Tropeano, Pena does not remotely look like a playoff rotation.


I'm having trouble finding the 2018 projections, but what would they have said about Chacin, Anderson, Guerra, Suter, and Miley? If the Angels can get their pitching production up to average this season (and I think their bullpen will be much better as well), they're in playoff contention. Not a favorite, and certainly only chasing the Wild Card unless Houston takes an unforeseen nose dive, but they can get there.
   61. BrianBrianson Posted: December 21, 2018 at 01:59 PM (#5799915)
Pretty much by definition ~half of your contracts should be overpays.

Not at the time you sign the contract...


Yes, at the time you sign the contract. Otherwise, you've wrongly gauged what's an over/under pay.
   62. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: December 21, 2018 at 02:16 PM (#5799925)
I'm having trouble finding the 2018 projections, but what would they have said about Chacin, Anderson, Guerra, Suter, and Miley?
"Er...what's the bullpen look like?"
   63. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: December 21, 2018 at 02:54 PM (#5799939)
Yes, at the time you sign the contract. Otherwise, you've wrongly gauged what's an over/under pay.

Unless you're being hyper-literal and count paying a guy $8m when he's only worth $7.75 as an overpay, then I disagree. You shouldn't be paying half your free agents $3-4m more per season than you expect them to be worth (it seems unlikely that you're going to be signing half your guys at that amount of a discount - the market is not that inefficient).

It's certainly true that about half of guys will underperform their projections and you will end up overpaying them.
   64. Rally Posted: December 21, 2018 at 03:12 PM (#5799943)
"Er...what's the bullpen look like?"


Which reminds me, Angels best bullpen guy for 2017-18 was Blake Parker. He made 1.8 million in 2018 and would have been due for a bit of a raise, but 3-4 million probably would have done the trick. They non-tendered him. As far as I can tell the bullpen plan for 2019 is throw a bunch of pitchers out there (31 used last season) and see if anybody can get batters out.
   65. BrianBrianson Posted: December 21, 2018 at 03:25 PM (#5799947)
Okay, so, we could define some model of overpay, underpay, and "on target pay", and 1/6th of your signings should be 1 sigma overpays, 1/6th 1 sigma underpays, etc (or some more complicated model, but let's not).

Then, your needs and the specifics of the market start to matter (if you want above replacement level players, there aren't an infinite number of them, but there aren't an infinite number of openings, what do contenders need, etc.)

So, maybe I'm playing fast and loose with the math (hey, I just received a referee's report saying the same thing!), but your real knowledge of true talent and market value and so forth is probably not sufficiently accurate you can reliably tell who is worth $9 million for 1 year, and who is worth $11 /1 year (or 19 million for two, etc).
   66. Banta Posted: December 21, 2018 at 03:30 PM (#5799950)
I just feel willing to grant more latitude in evaluating a team's performance in free agency, as it's more unpredictable, especially at the low end. I mean, Matt Harvey is getting this now, but what would a similiar projected player get in February or March? Not much, if it plays out like last year. So what if the Angels sign that other player and it balances out the 3 or 4 million overpay here? I got ripped off on the tomatoes, but the sale on turkey was awesome and I'm still at budget

To snapper's point, if this doesn't balance out in the long run and you're constantly getting hosed in FA deals, that's an indictment of management. However, I don't really feel that most (any??) team management units get ripped off all the time. Most teams have issues with identifying talent and assembling teams which are completely nebulous quantities compared to contract negotiations.

And obviously, misreading talent level is a way to overspend, but that's a different topic. We all knew Eric Hosmer was getting paid last year because he seemed to carry all the other intangibles that ML teams value, beyond his sabermetrically underrated performance, which is why many could say the deal he got wasn't terrible from the team perspective while also thinking "I would never do that."
   67. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: July 20, 2019 at 12:41 PM (#5863442)
Welp, this deal didn’t work out.
   68. Davo Has Marianne Mindset Posted: July 20, 2019 at 12:48 PM (#5863444)
They uh. They might have misread the SP market a bit.

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