Matthews: Is Brett Gardner leadoff hitter or caboose?

New hot potato caboose that is.

Despite their difference in Wins Above Replacement—Jeter’s was 2.3, Gardner’s 5.1 according to FanGraphs, mostly because of his high defensive rating—Jeter was the winner of this WAR, and the discussion has hardly been raised this winter.

The Yankees’ best lineup last year seemed to be the one with Jeter leading off and Gardner hitting ninth.

And yet, there is a circumstance in which the Yankees might do better with Gardner batting first and Jeter second in 2012—when a right-hander is starting. In fact, that would probably cover close to two-thirds of the season.

The reason is that Gardner’s OBP versus righties the last two seasons is significantly higher than Jeter’s. In 2010 and 2011, Gardner’s OBP vs. righties was .383 and .345, respectively; Jeter’s was .316 and .329. And throughout his career, Jeter has been a slightly better hitter in the 2-hole, where for years he batted regularly. As a leadoff hitter, Jeter’s career BA and OBP are .309/.379; they are .314/.385 as a No. 2 hitter. Plus, Gardner’s speed should make it easier for him to steal against a right-handed pitcher.

Now, when a lefty is pitching, the numbers are reversed: Jeter’s OBP’s over the last two seasons (.391/.423) are better than Gardner’s (.373/.344).

So the answer seems pretty simple: Gardner leads off, Jeter bats second when a righty is starting; Jeter leads off, Gardner bats ninth when a lefty is starting.