Matthews: What can we expect from A-Rod?

Still, both Long and GM Brian Cashman acknowledge that this version of A-Rod, who will turn 37 in July, is very much an unknown quantity.

“When he’s healthy, he’s always produced,’’ said Cashman, who when pressed for a prediction on Rodriguez’s final 2012 numbers, admitted, “I have no idea.’‘

(Kevin) Long, too, tempered his enthusiasm for A-Rod’s upcoming season with the caveat, “If he’s healthy ... ‘’

As in, if he’s healthy “I think 30-40 home runs is realistic.’‘

Rodriguez, of course, has not hit more than 30 home runs since 2008, when he hit 35. He followed that with two 30-home run seasons before bottoming out at 16 last year. But his run production has remained strong—his 125 ribbies in 2010 was his 13th consecutive 100+ RBI season—although his slugging percentage has plummeted from a high of .645 in his last MVP season (2007) to .461 in 2011.

And according to the projections of Dan Szymborksi of ZiPs Projections, and Bill James, A-Rod won’t make it to 30 this year, either. Szymborski has A-Rod playing just 108 games, with 21 HRs, 82 RBIs and a .264 BA. James is a bit more optimistic: he sees A-Rod finishing .277/29/86 in 134 games.

I don’t care how Wallace Matthews sez it…I get a kick out of him now using Dan’s ZiPs.