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Friday, January 24, 2014

Mayo: Breaking down the Top 100 Prospects list

And…The List.

MLB.com’s new Top 100 Prospects was released Thursday, with Minnesota outfielder Byron Buxton as close to a unanimous top prospect as there’s been in recent memory. There were 35 newcomers named to the list this year.

The time has come once again to unveil a new prospect rankings. The new Top 100 Prospects list is out and ready for you to tear down, err, analyze.

The graduates

There were a total of 30 graduates to the big leagues from last year’s list. It started with six of the top 10 moving on to bigger and better things, led by 2013 No. 1 prospect Jurickson Profar. American League Rookie of the Year Award winner Wil Myers was the No. 4 prospect in ‘13, while National League ROY Award winner Jose Fernandez began the year at No. 7. Yasiel Puig, Shelby Miller, Julio Teheran, Jedd Gyorko and Nolan Arenado, all of whom were ranked in the Top 100, got Rookie of the Year votes in the NL. The AL vote-getters were also all over the list, with Jose Iglesias, Chris Archer and Martin Perez following Myers on the board.

The newcomers

Not counting the 2013 Draftees who are now on the list, there are 35 new names on the list compared with the ‘13 version. Some of them were added as last season went on, or when the list was officially re-ranked over the summer. Some made huge jumps onto the list, starting with Phillies third baseman Maikel Franco at No. 26, followed very closely by Pirates right-hander Tyler Glasnow at No. 27. Other prospects who went from not being on the list to hitting the top 50 were the Dodgers’ Corey Seager (34), Raul Adalberto Mondesi (38) of the Royals, Rockies right-hander Eddie Butler (41) and C.J. Edwards (42) from the Cubs.

Repoz Posted: January 24, 2014 at 06:04 AM | 46 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 24, 2014 at 09:40 AM (#4645537)
My issue with Mayo is that he has too much carryover from previous lists. Aside from graduations, only three guys from last year's list fell off this year? Really? Shouldn't a lousy year cause you to fall off? A guy like Hak-Ju Lee, who has been on prospect lists forever it seems, but had a .696 OPS in 2012 and played just 15 games in 2013 is still a top 100 prospect because he was on lists for several years? Michael Choice is a 24 year old putting up meh numbers in AAA, but he's still a top 100 prospect because he was on the list last year?

And what does Jim Callis do if Mayo is churning out the lists? Get Mayo's coffee? Callis should be the one making this list if he isn't already.
   2. cardsfanboy Posted: January 24, 2014 at 09:47 AM (#4645549)
only three guys from last year's list fell off this year?


I thought it was only 3 guys from the top half of the list fell off. I don't think he ever remarks on who fell off from the previous season bottom half. Outside of a catastrophe, I don't see any reason for too many top 50 guys to fall all the way off. (Considering there were 30 graduates, and at least 35 new names...not counting 2013 draftees...more than 3 fell off the list)

He doesn't have a breakdown of the numbers from the 2013 draft who made the list, but there are 15 teenagers so I imagine a few of them are new to this list.
   3. Jose Molina wants a nickname like "A-Rod" Posted: January 24, 2014 at 09:49 AM (#4645550)
TFA says: "Not counting the 2013 Draftees who are now on the list, there are 35 new names on the list compared with the '13 version." So, if there were 30 graduates, there are (5 + 2013 draftees) new players on the list.
   4. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 24, 2014 at 10:22 AM (#4645582)
A guy like Hak-Ju Lee, who has been on prospect lists forever it seems, but had a .696 OPS in 2012 and played just 15 games in 2013 is still a top 100 prospect because he was on lists for several years?


Lee is mostly a top prospect because of his defense at short. As such, talking about his offensive numbers is kind of missing the point.
   5. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 24, 2014 at 10:36 AM (#4645594)
Lee is mostly a top prospect because of his defense at short. As such, talking about his offensive numbers is kind of missing the point.

How is that any different than when we talk about whether an all-bat guy can field any position well enough to get a shot?

An all-glove SS has to be able to hit to a certain degree, just like an all glove 1B/LF has to be able to field to a certain degree.
   6. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: January 24, 2014 at 10:46 AM (#4645601)
Almora looks overrated to me at 18. I know his glove is supposed to be very good at CF but his offensive value is all batting average right now and he has little physical projectability (i.e. is unlikely to add any power).

To put it another way, the Cubs would probably trade two Almoras for one Dylan Bundy, listed at 20.
   7. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: January 24, 2014 at 10:56 AM (#4645612)
How is that any different than when we talk about whether an all-bat guy can field any position well enough to get a shot?

An all-glove SS has to be able to hit to a certain degree, just like an all glove 1B/LF has to be able to field to a certain degree.


That's true but mentioning 2012 as a bad year for him ignores the player he is. Obviously he didn't tear it up but he didn't embarrass himself either. 2013 was a lost year for him but 84 seems like a reasonable spot for a guy like that. Casey Kelly for example is number 87 and he missed all of 2013 with Tommy John surgery. The difference between #84 and #115 is really not that great and if you think Lee is a truly elite defender (I have no clue) then it's probably reasonable to keep him on the list.
   8. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: January 24, 2014 at 11:24 AM (#4645629)
Raul Mondesi's kid is on this list. I feel old.
   9. PreservedFish Posted: January 24, 2014 at 11:34 AM (#4645634)
I've noticed that BP's recent lists tend to be the most aggressive - they don't shy away from putting the kids in the lower minors way up at the top. I think I like that approach.
   10. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 24, 2014 at 11:39 AM (#4645638)
I agree. I like to know about the guys with upside, not the guys who have a chance to become John McDonald.

When do BPs and BAs lists come out? KLaw comes out with his on Wednesday.
   11. PreservedFish Posted: January 24, 2014 at 11:46 AM (#4645642)
I do kind of wish there was a statheads-only ranking somewhere. The BP and FG writers are so so desperate to prove their scouting acumen, the writing seems very self-conscious. It is possible to talk about a player without going into depth on his arm angle or grading his hit tool as 6+.
   12. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 24, 2014 at 12:03 PM (#4645661)
An all-glove SS has to be able to hit to a certain degree, just like an all glove 1B/LF has to be able to field to a certain degree.


A .261/.336/.360 batting line like Lee's in 2012 is much less of a problem for him than it would be for a generic prospect given that

a) he projects as a strong defender at a key defensive position.
b) he was a 21-year-old in AA.
c) he showed significant improvement as the year progressed.
and
d) the league average was only .252/.333/.376.

As such, he looks like a guy "who can hit to a certain extent"... which is why he's ranked.

Also, his 2012 performance was already reflected in his MLB.com ranking last year, so it's not like they're going to debit him for it twice. He dropped from #56 to #84 due to the injury, which seems fair.
   13. Christopher Linden Posted: January 24, 2014 at 12:15 PM (#4645668)
I do kind of wish there was a statheads-only ranking somewhere

There was, I recall, something of a foofaraw about this very thing when Prospectus put Mark Prior atop (or near the top of) the charts fresh out of school with zero pro innings. I might have the details off, but I believe it was Keith Woolner who argued that BP's whole raison d'etre was the statistical analysis of professional baseball, and because all they had were college stats they couldn't do a proper analysis of Prior's potential without delving into the scouting/observation realm. Woolner was against this. Rany's counter was that, hey, it's a top-prospect list and if Mark Prior is the top prospect in baseball then he deserves to be on the list. In essence, Woolner was arguing for input (the sanctity of that sabermetric process), Rany was arguing for output (having a list that made sense). At the end of the day, it was Rany's name in the byline and his was the view that carried the day.

Or something like that. Anyhow, things changed for good when they put Goldstein in charge. A scouting man all the way (though not a scout), he stripped away any pretense of the BP list being a purely sabermetric affair.

Question: What are the performance expectancies for various tiers on prospect lists? I tend to sort players into five levels:

Level 5 - perennial MVP candidate, no-doubt HOF'er
Level 4 - perennial All-Star, would have MVP seasons at his peak
Level 3 - solid starter, could sneak his way into a couple ASGs
Level 2 - useful reserve or utility player, might fluke his way into 200 starts if the stars align.
Level 1 - fringe player with no major-league future unless he impresses the right manager

So if I have the #10 prospect, should I be satisfied with a Level 3? What about #50? #75? Obviously this changes a little year to year, but overall, what's a reasonable expectation for the #40 guy on the BA list? Rany, of course, did a definitive (if possibly outdated) study of WAR/P expectancies for draft slots, but I haven't seen anyone do a similar study for already-drafted players on the prospect lists. Anyone done it?

Happy Base Ball


   14. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: January 24, 2014 at 12:33 PM (#4645698)
I do kind of wish there was a statheads-only ranking somewhere. The BP and FG writers are so so desperate to prove their scouting acumen, the writing seems very self-conscious. It is possible to talk about a player without going into depth on his arm angle or grading his hit tool as 6+.


Andy Marte pretty much killed stathead-only prospect analysis.
   15. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 24, 2014 at 12:42 PM (#4645710)
I do kind of wish there was a statheads-only ranking somewhere

Why? That would be a terrible list. Rany was the only guy who had Youkilis anywhere on any list, but other than that I can't think of any player that wasn't on Sickels's or BA's list but statheads loved that amounted to much.
Question: What are the performance expectancies for various tiers on prospect lists? I tend to sort players into five levels:

Level 5 - perennial MVP candidate, no-doubt HOF'er
Level 4 - perennial All-Star, would have MVP seasons at his peak
Level 3 - solid starter, could sneak his way into a couple ASGs
Level 2 - useful reserve or utility player, might fluke his way into 200 starts if the stars align.
Level 1 - fringe player with no major-league future unless he impresses the right manager

So if I have the #10 prospect, should I be satisfied with a Level 3? What about #50? #75? Obviously this changes a little year to year, but overall, what's a reasonable expectation for the #40 guy on the BA list? Rany, of course, did a definitive (if possibly outdated) study of WAR/P expectancies for draft slots, but I haven't seen anyone do a similar study for already-drafted players on the prospect lists. Anyone done it?

Can any prospect be a Level 5? I've never seen it -- not Alex Rodriguez, not Stephen Strasburg -- nobody. To me, any Top 100 prospect should be a Level 3, with the difference in ranking being how likely they are to reach that level and how much chance they have of getting to Level 4. Expecting Byron Buxton to be a perennial All-Star like....Tony Gwynn is nuts. The Twins should be happy if he's Torii Hunter.
   16. Brian Posted: January 24, 2014 at 12:44 PM (#4645713)
Happy Base Ball


Well done.
   17. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 24, 2014 at 12:46 PM (#4645715)
Can any prospect be a Level 5? I've never seen it -- not Alex Rodriguez, not Stephen Strasburg -- nobody

Concur, nobody is a no doubt HoFer that young. Mike Trout isn't a no doubt HoFer now.
   18. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 24, 2014 at 12:48 PM (#4645718)
Rany was the only guy who had Youkilis anywhere on any list, but other than that I can't think of any player that wasn't on Sickels's or BA's list but statheads loved that amounted to much.


Marcus Giles, maybe? BA liked him enough to have him in their top 100, but they were definitely less bullish on him than BPro was.
   19. Christopher Linden Posted: January 24, 2014 at 12:56 PM (#4645730)
Let me clarify. I'm not suggesting even the Griffeyist of prospects would warrant a Level 5 rating ... I "assign" those levels (and it's really more of an informal mental way of sorting players) only after their major-league careers are established.

But still unanswered, TMK at least, is the question of the value of a given prospect-list slot. Lee is, what, the #84 guy? If he never rises above Level 2, if he's never more than John McDonald, is disappointment really warranted? Should you trade an established 26-year-old walk-year Level 3 (solid starter) for the #3 prospect in a normal year? If anyone's studied this, I can't find it.

Happy Base Ball



   20. PreservedFish Posted: January 24, 2014 at 12:56 PM (#4645732)
Why? That would be a terrible list


For fun?
   21. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: January 24, 2014 at 01:01 PM (#4645738)
Why? That would be a terrible list.


I think it could be a pretty interesting list. Obviously it wouldn't be as accurate as a list combining stats and scouting but a "stats only" list would be a way to just catch something that's getting missed. If some guy keeps posting a .950 OPS at every level even though he's too slow and too awkward with an ugly swing I wouldn't want to miss out on that.

That's an extreme example of course but take a guy like Daniel Nava. He was never really deemed a meaningful prospect but he has a career .912 OPS in the minors. That's a guy that I'd at least want a reminder to keep my eye on.
   22. AROM Posted: January 24, 2014 at 01:02 PM (#4645739)
Can any prospect be a Level 5? I've never seen it -- not Alex Rodriguez, not Stephen Strasburg -- nobody


You can't expect anybody to be that good, but I think the intent was to frame it as a probability. Say the next superstar phenom, Brycetrout Griffriguez (before MLB debut) has a 10% chance to be level 5, 40% for level 4, 40% for level 3, 10% for below that.
   23. Christopher Linden Posted: January 24, 2014 at 01:04 PM (#4645740)
AROM, exactly.
   24. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: January 24, 2014 at 01:07 PM (#4645744)
Just as an example I did a quick little hunt and found a AA guy named Alex Dickerson I've never heard of. Apparently he's with the Pirates org now and had an .832 OPS last year which was 14th in the Eastern League. Baseball America's chat said that he was considered for the top ten but wasn't quite there yet. A stat-based list might do him well, he's only 23 and in three minor league seasons has seemed consistent.

Like I said I had never heard of him as of ten minutes ago so I have no idea if he has any kind of future. He's the type of player who I'd be interested in following though, at some point he's either going to play his way into a job (like Nava) or he's going to flame out but if I were a serious talent evaluator a guy who keeps getting it done at every level is a guy I'd want to know about. As a fan that kind of thing interests me.
   25. AROM Posted: January 24, 2014 at 01:08 PM (#4645746)
He was never really deemed a meaningful prospect but he has a career .912 OPS in the minors. That's a guy that I'd at least want a reminder to keep my eye on.


I didn't remember being that impressed by his minor league stats so I looked it up. He's got a 1.100 OPS in 72 games of independent ball. Then .948 as a 25 year old in the hitting heaven of Lancaster in the CAL league. Hit well at A, AA in 2009, but in very limited time. Then 3 years in Pawtucket, prime years (27-29), OPS of .817.

Not bad, but lumping all that together makes it sound a lot better than it really is.
   26. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 24, 2014 at 01:11 PM (#4645748)
I think it could be a pretty interesting list. Obviously it wouldn't be as accurate as a list combining stats and scouting but a "stats only" list would be a way to just catch something that's getting missed. If some guy keeps posting a .950 OPS at every level even though he's too slow and too awkward with an ugly swing I wouldn't want to miss out on that.

That's an extreme example of course but take a guy like Daniel Nava. He was never really deemed a meaningful prospect but he has a career .912 OPS in the minors. That's a guy that I'd at least want a reminder to keep my eye on.

But Nava did that between 25 and 29 years of age. A "stats-only" list would have penalized him for being old for his level. Conversely (or maybe inversely) a scout can ignore the guy's numbers and just look at his bat speed, how long he waits on pitches, and the way he adjusts to breaking balls to evaluate how he'd do at the hext level regardless of how old he is.
   27. Christopher Linden Posted: January 24, 2014 at 01:16 PM (#4645753)
Another way to look at the issue: In a vacuum, do you trade 27-year-old Evan Longoria, 14th last year among MLB position players in WAR, sight unseen for the #3 player on next year's BA list?

Happy Base Ball
   28. Barnaby Jones Posted: January 24, 2014 at 01:17 PM (#4645754)
Andy Marte pretty much killed stathead-only prospect analysis.


Marte was highly rated by scouts. This makes no sense.
   29. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: January 24, 2014 at 01:20 PM (#4645756)
I like to think of these lists as "people to target when they flip Kimbrel."
   30. Sean Forman Posted: January 24, 2014 at 01:27 PM (#4645764)
That's an extreme example of course but take a guy like Daniel Nava. He was never really deemed a meaningful prospect but he has a career .912 OPS in the minors. That's a guy that I'd at least want a reminder to keep my eye on.


I need to bring back the Iowa Farm Report after a ten year hiatus.
   31. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 24, 2014 at 01:27 PM (#4645765)
Another way to look at the issue: In a vacuum, do you trade 27-year-old Evan Longoria, 14th last year among MLB position players in WAR, sight unseen for the #3 player on next year's BA list?

If anyone were to say "YES" the #3 spot next year suddenly becomes really valuable.
   32. AROM Posted: January 24, 2014 at 01:28 PM (#4645767)
Another way to look at the issue: In a vacuum, do you trade 27-year-old Evan Longoria, 14th last year among MLB position players in WAR, sight unseen for the #3 player on next year's BA list?


Probably not him since he still has so many favorable years on his contract, but the Rays did trade James Shields, #17 in pitching WAR for 2011-2012, for a top prospect.
   33. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: January 24, 2014 at 01:30 PM (#4645771)

Andy Marte pretty much killed stathead-only prospect analysis.


BA also had him as a top prospect (not as high as BPro)

Just as an example I did a quick little hunt and found a AA guy named Alex Dickerson I've never heard of.Apparently he's with the Pirates org now and had an .832 OPS last year which was 14th in the Eastern League.


On a purely stat based approach I have him as being 160th or so for 2013, .288/.337/.494 in AA as a 23 year old...
not as good as Marcus Semien, better numbers, a year younger
other guys with good numbers but not on the top 100 prospect lists:
Rosell Herrera
Devon Travis

and a GREAT NAME:
Rougned Odor (he is 96 on MLB's list though)

   34. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 24, 2014 at 01:33 PM (#4645772)
Just as an example I did a quick little hunt and found a AA guy named Alex Dickerson I've never heard of. Apparently he's with the Pirates org now and had an .832 OPS last year which was 14th in the Eastern League.


Actually, he's with the Padres now - the Pirates traded him to San Diego for Jaff Decker and Miles Mikolas earlier this offseason. He's a decent enough 1B prospect (even though they were using him in the OF last year), but he doesn't draw many walks and I don't think he's going to be anything too special.
   35. Xander Posted: January 24, 2014 at 01:33 PM (#4645773)
Almora looks overrated to me at 18. I know his glove is supposed to be very good at CF but his offensive value is all batting average right now and he has little physical projectability (i.e. is unlikely to add any power).
Ooooh. I'm bookmarking this post. It's going to look very silly in say...two years.
   36. Brian Posted: January 24, 2014 at 01:39 PM (#4645783)
Odor is 59 on Mayo's list.
   37. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 24, 2014 at 01:42 PM (#4645787)
Rosell Herrera


BA's #3 prospect for Colorado this year, and #5 in the Sally League.

Devon Travis


BA's #2 prospect for Detroit this year, and #17 in the Florida State League.
   38. Sean Forman Posted: January 24, 2014 at 01:46 PM (#4645790)
Also about the sabermetrics only list, I suspect that list would do just as well as the BA list.

Look at the top 20 from any random year. I found my top 20 from the old BBBA's from before the 1999 season.


Here's my top 20. I didn't grade any pitchers.

Eric Chavez
J.D.Drew
Russ Branyan
Chad Hermanson
Jeremy Giambi
Calvin Pickering
Ruben Mateo (not looking too good for me so far)
Ronnie Belliard
Lance Berkman
Mitch Melusky
Dernell Stenson
Michael Barrett
Carlos Febles
George Lombard
Mario Encarnacion
Gabe Kapler
Ben Petrick
Alex Gonzalez (FLA)
Ben Davis
Ricky Ledee


Here is BA's top 20 batters

name_common     year rank milbID       aff  pos   |
+-----------------+------+------+--------------+------+-------+
J.DDrew       1999 |    drew--001dav STL  of    |
Eric Chavez     1999 |    chavez001eri OAK  3b    |
Michael Barrett 1999 |    barret002mic WSN  3b,c  |
Pablo Ozuna     1999 |    ozuna-001pab FLA  ss    |
Ruben Mateo     1999 |    mateo-001rub TEX  of    |
Alex Escobar    1999 |   11 escoba001ale NYM  of    |
Lance Berkman   1999 |   13 berkma001wil HOU  of    |
Carlos Beltran  1999 |   14 beltra001car KCR  of    |
Corey Patterson 1999 |   16 patter001don CHC  of    |
Alex Gonzalez   1999 |   17 gonzal003ale FLA  ss    |
Nick Johnson    1999 |   18 johnso001nic NYY  1b    |
Pat Burrell     1999 |   19 burrel001pat PHI  1b    |
Dernell Stenson 1999 |   22 stenso001der BOS  of    |
Ben Davis       1999 |   24 davis-005mar SDP  c     |
George Lombard  1999 |   26 lombar001geo ATL  of    |
Carlos Lee      1999 |   28 lee---004car CHW  3b    |
Russell Branyan 1999 |   29 branya001rus CLE  3b    |
Carlos Febles   1999 |   30 febles001car KCR  2b    |
Gabe Kapler     1999 |   34 kapler001gab DET  of    |
Michael Cuddyer 1999 |   36 cuddye001mic MIN  ss,3b 


On theirs & not mine
Ozuna
Escobar
Beltran
Corey Patterson
Nick Johnson
Pat Burrell
Carlos Lee
Michael Cuddyer

So I can't 4 maybe five significant hits there.

On mine & not theirs
Hermanson
Giambi
Pickering
Belliard
Melusky
Encarnacion
Petrick
Ledee

pretty grim for me as belliard is really the only one who did anything out of that list. Giambi was a good player with significant issues.

A couple of things looking back. I made no adjustments for SO rate or defensive ability. If doing it now, I certainly would have. Didn't really have the fielding data at all then.
BA had plenty of misses as well. It's easy for me to say, but I think making some modest adjustments for SO rate and fielding you could make a pretty damn good list that is as successful as any scout oriented list.
Another issue is that BA talks extensively with teams and so their rankings to some degree confirm what the teams are thinking and will be reflected in opportunities given.


Here are the top ten pitchers that year.

-----------------+------+------+--------------+------+------+
name_common     year rank milbID       aff  pos  |
+-----------------+------+------+--------------+------+------+
Rick Ankiel     1999 |    ankiel001ric STL  lhp  |
Bruce Chen      1999 |    chen--001bru ATL  lhp  |
Brad Penny      1999 |    penny-001bra ARI  rhp  |
Ryan Anderson   1999 |    anders003rya SEA  lhp  |
Matt Clement    1999 |   10 clemen001mat SDP  rhp  |
Roy Halladay    1999 |   12 hallad001har TOR  rhp  |
John Patterson  1999 |   15 patter002joh ARI  rhp  |
Matt Riley      1999 |   20 riley-001mat BAL  lhp  |
A.JBurnett    1999 |   21 burnet001all FLA  rhp  |
Braden Looper   1999 |   23 looper001bra FLA  rhp  |
Ryan Bradley    1999 |   25 bradle001rya NYY  rhp  |
Mark Mulder     1999 |   27 mulder001mar OAK  lhp  |
Odalis Perez    1999 |   31 perez-001oda ATL  lhp  |
Matt White      1999 |   32 white-001mat TBD  rhp  |
Billy Koch      1999 |   33 koch--002wil TOR  rhp  |
Rob Bell        1999 |   35 bell--001rob CIN  rhp  |
Chad Hutchinson 1999 |   42 hutchi002cha STL  rhp  |
Jason Grilli    1999 |   44 grilli001jas SFG  rhp  |
Octavio Dotel   1999 |   45 dotel-001oct NYM  rhp  |
Kevin McGlinchy 1999 |   47 mcglin001kev ATL  rhp  |
+-----------------+------+------+--------------+------+------+ 


   39. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 24, 2014 at 01:55 PM (#4645799)
On theirs & not mine
Ozuna
Escobar
Beltran
Corey Patterson
Nick Johnson
Pat Burrell
Carlos Lee
Michael Cuddyer

So I can't 4 maybe five significant hits there.

On mine & not theirs
Hermanson
Giambi
Pickering
Belliard
Melusky
Encarnacion
Petrick
Ledee

pretty grim for me as belliard is really the only one who did anything out of that list. Giambi was a good player with significant issues.

A couple of things looking back. I made no adjustments for SO rate or defensive ability. If doing it now, I certainly would have. Didn't really have the fielding data at all then.
BA had plenty of misses as well. It's easy for me to say, but I think making some modest adjustments for SO rate and fielding you could make a pretty damn good list that is as successful as any scout oriented list.
Another issue is that BA talks extensively with teams and so their rankings to some degree confirm what the teams are thinking and will be reflected in opportunities given.

Not sure what adjustments you mean specifically, but if you want to catch up with the career of Carlos Beltran alone, let alone him plus Lee, Cuddyer and Burrell they'd better be pretty nifty. To me this comparison demonstrates that a primarily scouting driven approach performed way better than a stats-only approach, not that a stats-only approach can match a scouting dependent approach. The "misses" don't matter. The hits are the ones that will play for your team and therefore matter.
   40. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: January 24, 2014 at 02:05 PM (#4645806)
In a vacuum, do you trade 27-year-old Evan Longoria, 14th last year among MLB position players in WAR, sight unseen for the #3 player on next year's BA list?


Absolutely not, and this is almost exactly the kind of argument you'll find yourself in on the internet all the time. Prospects bust. Even good ones. Even ones who are not pitchers. They do it a lot, actually. But the internet loves prospects.

I tried to discuss this at USS Mariner (I know, big mistake), where they were have a chimp-####-throwing fest about the off chance that the M's might give up Taijuan Walker for David Price. My argument was basically that this would never happen because the Rays would never be stupid enough to do it. Got shouted down, but I was right.

Of course, this is different (a little) b/c we're not in a vacuum, Walker is a young pitcher and thus inherently risky, and Price is not the 15th-best in the league, but probably third or fourth. But I maintain that, unless he's prohibitively expensive or marooned on a team that needs to rebuild, you should never trade a legit star like Price for a lottery ticket, even a good one, like Walker.
   41. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: January 24, 2014 at 02:08 PM (#4645808)
The odd thing about Marte is that a "stat only" approach would not have ranked him nearly as high as the statheads actually did at the time. His numbers were good, but not fantastic. What made him jump out was the "young for his level" aspect to it, and that comes straight from the more subjective side of scouting as well.

Ruben Mateo's numbers were fantastic. You wonder what may have happened without the broken leg that ended the 2000 season. His numbers changed dramatically from there, at least in a speed sense and to an extent in a power sense.

And of course it's hard to ding someone for what happened to Ben Petrick.
   42. AROM Posted: January 24, 2014 at 02:14 PM (#4645818)
If Sean had defensive data to throw into the mix, he might have picked up on Beltran, but that would not have helped him identify Burrell, Lee, or Cuddyer.

This is before the 1999 season, so in Burrell's case he'd only have 37 games in the FSL to go on. After the 1999 season, you'd have a 320/425/602 performance while playing a full year in AA/AAA, so he would have ranked very well.

Carlos Lee - he had 4 full minor league season under his belt, so there's enough data. You might have picked him up depending on how much you reward his low (50~ per year) strikeout rate.

Cuddyer had played one full season, but only in low A. Tough to pick up on this guys from the stats, scouts are definitely better at picking the low minors.
   43. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: January 24, 2014 at 03:26 PM (#4645887)
Ooooh. I'm bookmarking this post. It's going to look very silly in say...two years.


Maybe it will. I just see him as a low ceiling / high floor kind of guy. It's an aggressive ranking for that type of guy when he's still in the Midwest League. I would not be surprised to see him as an MLB regular eventually but I would be surprised to see him in the opening day lineup for 2016.
   44. AndrewJ Posted: January 25, 2014 at 08:03 AM (#4646116)
Bad news: Phillies have only 2 in the Top 100.

Good news: Both of them are in the top 53.
   45. cardsfanboy Posted: January 25, 2014 at 12:07 PM (#4646207)
ad news: Phillies have only 2 in the Top 100.

Good news: Both of them are in the top 53.


Cardinals only have 3 on the list... but the guy that is ranked 98th overall is (hopefully)going to be a masher when he makes it to the show, I'm almost more excited to see Piscotty than Taveras in the majors. Drawback is there isn't enough positions for all the players the Cardinals have...Too bad we aren't in the AL.
   46. valuearbitrageur Posted: January 25, 2014 at 05:55 PM (#4646314)
And of course it's hard to ding someone for what happened to Ben Petrick.


I'm surprised he was ranked so low on Sean's list, kid was a stud

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