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Tuesday, May 16, 2017

Mazz: Dombrowski Thin On Options To Fix Red Sox « CBS Boston

Tony Mazz is a horrible analyst.

Jim Furtado Posted: May 16, 2017 at 08:43 AM | 17 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: red sox

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   1. Batman Posted: May 16, 2017 at 09:01 AM (#5456224)
The starting rotation lacks depth.

This has nothing to do with having a stud as the No. 5 starter. It has everything to do with viable options at the sixth, seventh, and eight spots in the organization in the event of injury.
All the great teams are set at the eighth starter slot.
   2. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: May 16, 2017 at 10:06 AM (#5456266)
Mazz also is repeating something I've been hearing a lot lately, the Sox didn't have an appropriate plan at third base. I'm not buying that. Even if you feel, as I do, that Sandoval sucking was inevitable they still had Brock Holt. Holt isn't a star but he is passable. Of course he has vertigo (and left last nights game in Pawtucket with a recurrence of his symptoms) but I don't think any team is likely to do well when they are on their third option at any position.

I may be naive but I'm not worried about the Sox yet. This team hasn't played well, they have one winning streak of more than two games, yet they are clipping along at .500 and are likely to get Price back soon. I'd like to see them pick it up soon but they haven't dug themselves anything close to a meaningful hole.
   3. DCA Posted: May 16, 2017 at 10:20 AM (#5456282)
I think the frustration with 3B isn't so much the #1 option being predictably bad and the #2 option being hurt.

It's more that the #2 option is predictably bad and the #3 option is hurt, while the #1 option (last year's primary 3B) is hitting 283/320/543 for Milwaukee after being traded for an injured pitcher.
   4. villageidiom Posted: May 16, 2017 at 10:49 AM (#5456324)
It's more that the #2 option is predictably bad and the #3 option is hurt, while the #1 option (last year's primary 3B) is hitting 283/320/543 for Milwaukee after being traded for an injured pitcher.
That's an 863 OPS.

2016 Travis Shaw OPS splits

866 April/May
687 June/July
570 August/September

The above isn't fate, but I mean, come on. The knock on Shaw was that he couldn't sustain that early pace over an entire season, which means this is not the time of year to evaluate Travis Shaw. This is the Shea Hillenbrand argument all over again.
   5. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: May 16, 2017 at 11:03 AM (#5456347)
I think number three is valid. Besides having a decent year Shaw was pretty popular with the fans. I hope he continues his start this year better than he did last year but I fear vi is right.
   6. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 16, 2017 at 11:28 AM (#5456370)
The knock on Shaw was that he couldn't sustain that early pace over an entire season, which means this is not the time of year to evaluate Travis Shaw.

Is there any evidence that monthly split are at all predctive?
   7. SoSH U at work Posted: May 16, 2017 at 11:42 AM (#5456388)
Is there any evidence that monthly split are at all predctive?


Only if you're Kenny Reitz or Mark Teixeira.
   8. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: May 16, 2017 at 11:44 AM (#5456391)
I think the pattern Shaw had is relevant. Hitters can hit until a book gets out on them and that's what happens with young players.

Like I said earlier, I hope Shaw has adjusted to the league adjusting to him but I suspect he's just off to a good start.
   9. ReggieThomasLives Posted: May 16, 2017 at 12:38 PM (#5456452)
I think it's entirely a lack of effort, or worse, too much effort in spots where it doesn't make sense, such as infielders calling out for balls over their heads. The only solution is replacing the manager, fortunately there is the perfect replacement available, he's unemployed, and knows where the park is having managed here for almost an entire full year.
   10. PreservedFish Posted: May 16, 2017 at 12:57 PM (#5456482)
I think the pattern Shaw had is relevant. Hitters can hit until a book gets out on them and that's what happens with young players.


So ... do they throw the book out every April and start over again?
   11. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: May 16, 2017 at 03:06 PM (#5456651)
No, but he changed leagues. I don't know how much, if any, impact that would have. One thought on that though. If a player spends the off season working on correcting a flaw, say low and outside breaking balls, then the book changes. The cycle could repeat, for a month or two he rakes teams adjust to the new book and the player can't make in season changes.

The other thing possible with Shaw's type of trend could be one of conditioning.

Not saying it's definitely going to repeat itself. Just offering an observation. I like Shaw a lot. Even when he slumped he seemed to have good at bats. He was the anti-Sandoval. Even when he made outs I never felt like he was getting himself out, it felt like the pitcher got the better of him. One thing of note with Shaw is that he improved at each level of the minors over time. As the son of a former big leaguer (Jeff is his dad) one would expect himself to be the type of player who would understand the game and be able to soak things in.
   12. Buck Coats Posted: May 16, 2017 at 03:27 PM (#5456685)
This "trend" of Shaw's to fade after a hot start has happened once so far, right?
   13. villageidiom Posted: May 16, 2017 at 05:26 PM (#5456835)
Is there any evidence that monthly split are at all predctive?

So ... do they throw the book out every April and start over again?

This "trend" of Shaw's to fade after a hot start has happened once so far, right?

Good ####### Lord. My point is that we should not look at a month and a half of Travis Shaw in Milwaukee and say the Red Sox sure did let a great one get away. Looking at him after a month and a half last year would've had us saying he's the answer at 3B if he is for real. And he wasn't. We went through this annually with Shea Hillenbrand over a decade ago.

Damn right you can't project month splits, which is why Travis Shaw shouldn't be considered as having been the answer for Boston at 3B on the basis of what he's done to date in Milwaukee. On the basis of what he did in Boston for the full year of 2016, he's not the answer. Based on preseason projection he and Sandoval were in the same neighborhood.

Sandoval is injured and had a .217 BABIP to date. Thornburg is injured. Holt has vertigo. Just about everything that could have gone wrong at 3B, and/or with the Shaw trade, has gone wrong for Boston. So far. In a month and a half.
   14. ReggieThomasLives Posted: May 16, 2017 at 05:46 PM (#5456852)
Shaw was a career 97 OPS+ third baseman with a plus glove, who was above average last year.

Sandoval put up a 75 OPS+, then was out for a year, and was a poor defender before the injury? And who was 3 runs below average the last year?

How could their expectations be similar?
   15. Joe Bivens will never admit, will make some excuse Posted: May 16, 2017 at 08:36 PM (#5457002)
Paul Goldschmidt is the answer here. They can run Marrero out there if they add Goldschmidt's bat.
   16. QLE Posted: May 16, 2017 at 08:44 PM (#5457012)
Sandoval put up a 75 OPS+, then was out for a year, and was a poor defender before the injury? And who was 3 runs below average the last year?


Especially given that, as time goes by, it seems more and more likely that his 2009 offensive performance was a fluke, and his 2011 defensive performance is more or less certainly one?
   17. Joe Bivens will never admit, will make some excuse Posted: May 16, 2017 at 09:58 PM (#5457114)
Wrong thread

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