There aren’t a lot of batters like Dunn—44% of his plate appearances end without a ball being put in play (walk or whiff) and at the same time, he’s a potent slugger, a bit like Darryl Strawberry but better (a bunch more walks, a handful fewer whiffs).



Straw's best OPS+'s: 165, 165, 162, 140, 140, 140, 134 (all between ages 21 &29;)

Dunn's: 152, 141, 135, 118, 110, 112

I'm sorry, which one of them is "a bit better"? This applies to neither as far as I can tell.

Obviously 112 is a higher number than 110. I intended descending order.

No coke yet?

Sometimes the answer is staring folks in the face. In this case it's Dunn case of dunlap's disease. As in his gut dun lap's over his belt.

Just look at his history. After a disasterous 2003 Dunn rebounded with an excellent 2004. 46 homres, walks, doubles, and almost average defense. Folks had every right to think that a 24 year old would build off this season. Instead he has regressed. And if one looks at his waistline one can surmise the likeliest reason.

Dunn is listed at 240 but he's 275 if he's an ounce. And if one disputes that estimate look at his fielding which has gone from blah to YUCK. And his splits in August and September over the past several seasons have followed the same path. This situation REEKS of a guy who is wearing down as the season progresses.

Note I have refrained from commenting on Dunn's attitude. Nobody can really know what is happening in someone else's head but based on Dunn's public statements he really has very little in baseball. Whether that approach has affected his professionalism one cannot be totally sure. But let's look at the situation.

He is a professional athlete who has not maintained his primary asset (his body).
His effectiveness in major areas of his profession (defense and baserunning) has been greatly reduced.
He has narrowed the scope of his positive contributions to an extreme degree. (Walks and homers)

I think Dunn is rapidly approaching a career crisis in that sometime soon his defense, etc. will become SO bad that the team will be forced to confront whether he has legitimate value. Someone on the Reds needs to sit this lad down NOW and explain to him that laying around watching the BassMaster Classic while munching on pork rinds is NOT recipe for success.

I'm sorry, which one of them is "a bit better"? This applies to neither as far as I can tell.

Well, it's pretty obvious that Strawberry was more than a little bit better than Dunn...

Well, it's pretty obvious that Strawberry was more than a little bit better than Dunn...
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I agree. There's some similarities between the two. Neither cares/cared enough about his baseball career. Straw's vices were worse than Dunn's seem to be. But generally speaking, Darryl was the far better natural athlete and was able to get by on raw talent throughout his 20's. Dunn, not so much.

Darryl Strawberry is getting shortshrift here. Strawberry was one of the most productive outfielders in the NL for an extended period of time, was a legit MVP candidate multiple times, SHOULD have won the 1988 NL MVP, was pretty good on the bases, ok in the outfield, and was a central player on a number of good teams. And "Straw" was hitting in a tough hitters park at a time where offense wasn't anything like it is now.

Adam Dunn doesn't have anything CLOSE to this on his resume.

I think anyone who looks at Adam Dunn and sees anything resembling Darryl Strawberry really needs to get their eyes examined.

Darryl's a lousy comp - it's agreed. What about the content of the article?

I think the article and the Reds new hitting coach are both ruminating about the symptoms instead of the root cause.

Dunn is overweight which has affected the rest of his game.

The question should be why is Dunn overweight? Is he stressed? Depressed? Lazy?

I think fussing over his approach with two strikes is ignoring the pink elephant in the room.

But that's just me.

Someone on the Reds needs to sit this lad down NOW and explain to him that laying around watching the BassMaster Classic while munching on pork rinds is NOT recipe for success.

I am dying laughing. Just remember, he'd much rather have played pro football, but that was going to be too much work...

Isn't this Dunn's walk year? Any chance that he might get motivated enough to improve his conditioning just a little and thus fool someone into overpaying him for another four or five seasons of pork rind munching apathy?

The one arguable advantage Dunn has over Strawberry is durability. With the exception of one season with a catastrophic injury, Dunn is a lock for 160 games a year, while Straw was down around 140 as often as not.

THIS THREAD IS POINTING AWAY FROM STRAWBERRY (HIS B-REF SIMILAR) TO ANOTHER 1980'S MET!!!

THIS THREAD IS POINTING AWAY FROM STRAWBERRY (HIS B-REF SIMILAR) TO ANOTHER 1980'S MET!!!

Actually Harvey's description of Dunn, his training regimen and love and dedication for baseball reminds of another Met, not Straw or Mitchell, rather Kevin McReynolds.

Like Dunn, McReynolds saw Baseball as "just a job", like Dunn he couldn't be bothered to keep himself in shape. McReynolds was well known as someone who had little interest in baseball, his teamates, his teams, or fans etc... He was the last to get to the ballpark, the first to leave.

Do guys like this ever, ever, get their acts together? (other than in the ast year of a contract?)

JP:

Folks around here think I am advocating that a guy has to "love" his job to perform. Not so. I DO believe that a guy needs to be a professional. And right now I think Dunn is not meeting that standard. If he were an employee of mine he would be given an action plan for improvement.

Ignore what people think he SHOULD be doing relative to his perceived talent. Just look at what he IS doing and how some of that doesn't meet a basic acceptable standard with the easy example being defense. Dunn was "ok" just a few years ago. Now he's Kevin Reimer. That's sad.

Adam Dunn NEEDS an intervention. And pretty d*mn quick.

Do guys like this ever, ever, get their acts together? (other than in the ast year of a contract?)

Jeff Kent seems like that type. He's gone on record saying he doesn't even like baseball, just happens to be really good at it.

You know Harvey, I patiently read every one of your posts about Dunn. It's obvious that something about the guy really disturbs you, but hey, we all have an ax to grind (mine is Andruw Jones' defense).

I have to call you on a recurring theme of yours, though:

Someone on the Reds needs to sit this lad down NOW and explain to him that laying around watching the BassMaster Classic while munching on pork rinds is NOT recipe for success...
I DO believe that a guy needs to be a professional. And right now I think Dunn is not meeting that standard....

Every single report I've read out of Cinci is that during his slump, he took extra batting practice. During spring training, he took extra time in the field trying to learn 1B (until Krivsky signed Hatteberg, and ended the experiment). I think you're being grossly unfair to call Dunn unprofessional, or lacking in effort.

Dunn is listed at 240 but he's 275 if he's an ounce.

Except by ESPN. And CBS Sportsline. And MLB.com.

Jeff Kent seems like that type. He's gone on record saying he doesn't even like baseball, just happens to be really good at it.

nope- Kent keeps himself in shape
David Justice too was on teh record as saying he didn't like Baseball- but he kept himslef in shape and worked at it

I haven't watched enough of Dunn to know if Harvey's perception is correct, but I saw enough of McReynolds- and he certainly didn't give a crap about baseball and made no apparent effort to work at the game
you don't have to like your job to work at it and try to do your best (that helps of course- but see someone like Tony Gwynn- he liked baseball, he was good at baseball and he couldn't be bothered to keep himself in shape either)

TDF:

Do you dispute that Dunn has openly expressed that his interest in football far exceeds his interest in baseball?

Do you dispute that his defense in the outfield has regressed from ok to Luzinksi?

Do you dispute that Dunn has gained in excess of 20 pounds over the last three years?

The last two couldn't be more obvious to the common fan. I have been raising farm animals for sixty years plus. I can tell how much a hog weighs within ten pounds. And if Adam Dunn weighs 240 I'm Patsy Cline.

Dunn's gut is an outlier

Harv,

just about everybody lists Dunn at 275 these days. BB-ref still lists him at 240, but they seem to list a lot of guys at their rookie year weight. They've got Greg Luzinski at 225 and Bob Horner at 210.

Excerpts from a recent Adam Dunn interview. I could provide a lot more if anyone still wants to suggest I am mischaracterizing Dunn's approach to the game.

tmbrdr: Have you gotten to do much fishing down here in Florida with all that extra time you are putting in getting acclimated to first base?

Dunn: I'm not going to lie. I've done quite a bit of fishing. I'll try to get my work in at first base early so I can go fishing.

knightz: What made you decide to play baseball instead of football?

Dunn: Well, that was still to this day the toughest decision I ever had to make. I wanted to do baseball long term, but actually both for as long as I could. It got to be too hard.


Carolyn_Myers: I can't believe it's really you! What did you do in the offseason?

Dunn: Well, I did a lot of fishing. A lot of hunting. I mixed in a little baseball every now and again.

mike_woodward: Adam, you're definitely my favorite player. I also hear you love fishing. Have you ever fished for striper in Cuberland Lake?

Dunn: No -- I have not. But is that an invite?

bafford: Who won the Reds fantasy football league this year?

Dunn: Well, Casey won it. I finished second. Our trainer, Mark Mann finished third. The best team never wins. My team was phenomenal.

Phil_Seas: I go to games during the season. Do you like night games or day games?

Dunn: I think I like night games better because I can sleep in a little bit. I'm a big sleeper. But I like day games because I can get a big dinner afterwards. I love dinner.

craigstapp: Do you ever play as yourself in video games?

Dunn: I do not play the baseball games. I am not a baseball guy for video games. I'm a football guy and Tiger Woods' golf.

Also, Harv, I'll bet you could belt out a killer rendition of "Crazy."

Harvey:

No, yes, and no.

First, you misunderstood my comment. BBRef seems to be the only place that still lists Dunn at 240; everywhere else I look, he's listed at the 275 you think he weighs.

More importantly, I don't think his defense has regressed that much. I don't think he either was that good, or is that bad. I think he was given a large benefit of the doubt with his defense, because he was relatively new to it. I think that now, people finally realize that he's never been very good. I also think that playing next to Jr makes both look much worse than they really are.

Finally, and more importantly, none of those 3 points addresses your basic problem with Dunn: You think he doesn't approach the game professionally. In addition to the two points I raised earlier, I'll add that he spent the past offseason with Jr, so he would have access to better equipment.

Is he big? Yea. Does he prefer football? I don't doubt it. But to call him "lazy" and "unprofessional" based solely on those two things is, again, grossly unfair.

just about everybody lists Dunn at 275 these days. BB-ref still lists him at 240, but they seem to list a lot of guys at their rookie year weight. They've got Greg Luzinski at 225 and Bob Horner at 210.

I find the listed weights of many players, on BB-ref and elsewhere, to generally be a source of excellent comedy.

Iggy:

I will wait patiently for TDF to demonstrate that my observations are not based in fact and that in reality I have some secret loathing for Adam Dunn.

Which is absurd. Look, if the most talented guy on the Reds wants to p*ss away his career that only helps the Brewers. I am merely suggesting that if anyone actually CARES about either Adam OR the Reds SOMEBODY want to do something.

But if all is well then so be it.

Boy, Harvey, that's some damning stuff.

He fishes (after he gets his work in at 1B)! He wanted to "do baseball long term"! He does things other than baseball during the offseason! He likes dinner and sleeping in! And he doesn't play video baseball!

Yep, slovenly and unprofessional.

I will wait patiently for TDF to demonstrate that my observations are not based in fact and that in reality I have some secret loathing for Adam Dunn.

The only "fact" is that Dunn isn't hitting as well as he did 2 years ago.

Is it mechanical? Is it mental? Was '04 an outlier? Does he miss his buddy Kearns? Do the Reds have a severly screwed up coaching staff?

Nope, he's just a fatass. Right?

TDF:

If someone openly expresses apathy AND declares that they spend an inordinate amount of time on activities NOT related to work WHILE allowing their work-related skills to suffer that is unprofessional.

I think an athlete who sees his or her production decline while their waistline expands is unprofessional.

I think an athlete who regresses from borderline average to bumpkin in one of the major facets of his job and it is NOT the result of either injury or age is unprofessional.

Adam wears his indifference on his sleeve. He is PROUD that he can succeed at the major league level without really trying. I think that speaks volumes about his approach to his profession.

I am astounded that anyone in the organization could see this talent on its current path and NOT do something. But reading your comments I grasp that the enablers in the area go beyond just the clubhouse.

"It's ok Adam. Don't listen to the mean man. Have another cookie."

Very sad.

B-Ref has Bartolo Colon as 250 lbs. That might be a little under, but seems reasonable. At one time in the last few years I think they had him at 180, though it might have been another site.

Maybe he was 180 when he first signed a professional contract, but certainly never since he's been in the majors.

B-Ref is a little low on Dunn, but the site does inform us that his nickname is "big donkey".

Gaining weight as you age is a fact of life for most of us. Maybe Dunn's a little young to be porking out, but still, weight problems are very hard to battle ("I love dinner," and why not?). It's not necessarily a sign of unprofessionalism in and of itself; for all I know, he'd weigh 320 if it weren't for baseball.

TDF:

I posted and then read your following posts. It is very clear that we diverge wildly on this topic. You believe Adam is some sort of victim. I am a firm believer in the individual choosing his path.

I think Adam has chosen poorly. And the results support that conviction.

It's not necessarily a sign of unprofessionalism in and of itself

Not necessarily. But in a young professional athlete, when coupled with stagnant/declining performance, it's definitely a red flag.

I'd still take Adam Dunn over Shawn Green. I guess he weighs about as much as two Shawn Greens anyway.

Dunn: I think I like night games better because I can sleep in a little bit. I'm a big sleeper. But I like day games because I can get a big dinner afterwards. I love dinner.

Summary: Dunn is an indecisive lazy pig.

Bartolo Colon was 180 in 4th grade. If he went to 4th grade.

Crosby:

That's pretty funny.

Harvey:

What is an "inordinate amount of time"? Again, every report out of Florida/Cinci was that he worked extra to learn 1B/get out of his late season slump. Do you know this to be false?

I also don't know anyone who watched Dunn day in and day out who would have described his defense as "borderline average".

He is PROUD that he can succeed at the major league level without really trying.

You know this...how?

I am astounded that anyone in the organization could see this talent on its current path and NOT do something. But reading your comments I grasp that the enablers in the area go beyond just the clubhouse.

"It's ok Adam. Don't listen to the mean man. Have another cookie."

Very sad.

Where did I say he didn't have anything to work on? Obviously, he has holes in is swing; I was pilloried on this very site 2 years ago, because I thought he looked at too many 3rd strikes. "Why would he swing at a pitch he can't hit?" was beat over my head time and again.

He's the best hitter on the team, and he's only 26; to see him regress over the past 3 years hurts the fan in me. But where you see a guy who gained weight and is thus an unprofessional slob, I see a guy who (a) may still be learning the game (again, he was late to baseball) and (b) is in an organization that's not exactly noted for its player development. If raw talent and dedication were the only two criteria, there wouldn't be so many busts in sports.

He seems to be working on his weaknesses, to the extent that the Reds have the knowledge to address them. Yea, he gained weight, but I've known quite a few former college football players, and most with they only gained 25 pounds.

Finally, that "interview" you posted looks an awful lot like an internet chat.

TDF:

Three years ago Dunn was almost competent in the outfield. That is no longer the case.

It's possible that Dunn's sense of humor is lost on me. But multiple times I have heard Dunn state in radio interviews on WLW that he works as little as possible on baseball. After a while I start to believe him.

That interview was on MLB.com. So? It's representative of the responses I have heard Adam give to just about everyone else.

If he is merely a wisenheimer then maybe one area isn't quite the problem I perceive it to be.

But he's 26(!), getting heavy, and right now his value is centered around hitting homers and drawing walks. That's not very promising long-term.

If he is merely a wisenheimer ...

Evidently you've never heard the "Adam from Milwalkee" story.

But he's 26(!), getting heavy, and right now his value is centered around hitting homers and drawing walks. That's not very promising long-term.

He still is very good at hitting HR and great at drawing walks, second only to Bonds. (How scary is it that Bonds drew three more walks in 30 fewer games?). I'd say he's probably a better than average baserunner, especially for a power hitter... the guy stole 7 bases in 2006 and didn't get caught once. (He is not one of the players I'd have guessed would be a 100% basestealer.)

I wonder how much of his power is from that ballpark, though.

What do you mean by long-term? I'd be surprised if he's, say, out of baseball in 2008. But I could be convinced that his next long-term contract is going to make some fans unhappy as he ages.

I find it funny that the two things Dunn is best at are two activities that require relatively little effort — destroying a pitch and then trotting around the bases, or not swinging at pitches to get a base on balls.

One could reason that any time he swings at the ball it's because he wants to hit a home run, because he really, really doesn't want to run the bases.

Also, I'm very bored at work and having fun at Adam Dunn's expense. I'm sure he'd do the same if he were bored. Well, there was that one time he called in during a rain delay... Hilarious.

Seriously, I'm a fan of Adam Dunn. Guy's a great quote and he seems like a fun guy to be around. We can't all have hyper-Eckstein hustle.

Crosby:

I apologize if I am repeating myself but note the following:

His BA/OBP/Slugging all went down for the second straight year.

His game regularly collapses in August and September. In almost 300 at bats over the three years his slugging percentage in September is .399. This season he failed to hit over .200 the last two months of the season. Don't believe me? Look it up. He flat out ran over the cliff.

His doubles total dipped this season by 11.

His slugging percentage at home is almost 100 points higher then it is on the road.

His defense continues to slip backward from blah, ha, to GAH. (Reds fan reaction)

And Frent's comment reflects the pervasive attitude around here. Dunn says funny things so he can't be all that bad. C'mon Harvey, lighten up already.

Look, it's like Steve wrote above. If it was one or two or three things maybe one wouldn't be concerned. But it's ALL OF IT.

And for pete's sake, he is only 26 years old. Unless we find out that Dunn was born in San Pedro de Macoris his age curve doesn't match the performance curve.

As a Brewer fan, I am fine with Adam Dunn following The Shoney's Diet and seeing his skills erode.

But as a BASEBALL FAN, it disturbs me that this talent is eroding before my eyes. And everyone is FINE WITH IT.

What is wrong with people?? Why is it ok to see this young man p*ss away his professional future? He is a biscuit away from 300 pounds and just a few percentage points from a sub .800 OPS.

Look, the Three True Outcomes is kind of cute and all but talking about it and having some player try and find the unholy nexus of ONLY hitting home runs or ONLY drawing walks is bizarre. Is it the consensus here that we WANT a guy with a .170/.350/.450 output? Is that the desired state?

Fine. If Adam Dunn as freak show is the end goal then have at it.

I will hush now.

As a Brewer fan, I am fine with Adam Dunn following The Shoney's Diet and seeing his skills erode.

But as a BASEBALL FAN, it disturbs me that this talent is eroding before my eyes. And everyone is FINE WITH IT.

What is wrong with people?? Why is it ok to see this young man p*ss away his professional future? He is a biscuit away from 300 pounds and just a few percentage points from a sub .800 OPS.

And I will (I hope succintly) finish with what I've been arguing:

You say he's unprofessional and lazy because he's gained weight, that the weight gain explains everything, and that it's all his fault. I say while he's gained weight (and 6'6" 275 isn't exactly Cecil Fielderish), he's never been as good as people thought he was defensively, and he's been in an organization that has a complete inability to develop talent; I see a guy who has, in fact, worked on his shortcomings (but just isn't making any progress). As a Reds fan, I've always loved Dunn's performance, but as a baseball fan I've seen the holes in his swing and just waited for the coming crash.

You think Dunn, if he still weighed 240 lbs., would still hit like he did in '04; I think that he's a good hitting coach away from hitting like '05 for many years to come.

Jeff Kent seems like that type. He's gone on record saying he doesn't even like baseball, just happens to be really good at it.

I think Larry Walker's said something similar. I know he said that he'd rather be a hockey player.

And of course, this attitude has led Vince Carter to some problems.

But as a BASEBALL FAN, it disturbs me that this talent is eroding before my eyes. And everyone is FINE WITH IT.

What is wrong with people?? Why is it ok to see this young man p*ss away his professional future? He is a biscuit away from 300 pounds and just a few percentage points from a sub .800 OPS.

Chill out and have a biscuit
Even if Dunn is everything you say he is, it's not the end of the world, he's not the first talented baseball player to piss his career away and he won't be the last.

But as a BASEBALL FAN, it disturbs me that this talent is eroding before my eyes. And everyone is FINE WITH IT.

What is wrong with people?? Why is it ok to see this young man p*ss away his professional future? He is a biscuit away from 300 pounds and just a few percentage points from a sub .800 OPS.


I haven't followed Dunn as closely as you, HW, or TDF.

But HW, you sound like one of those overbearing parents that can really bug me. It's Dunn's God-given talent, let him do what he wants to with it. Not all of life has to be about being the best possible baseball player you can be. Ted Williams was driven by it, and that was great. People are driven by different passions and want different things. And really, how well can you tell that he doesn't want to improve?

It's funny that the Darryl comparison was brought up, because that was the criticism of Darryl early in his career. That he didn't have the drive to fulfill his .350, 50 HR, 150 RBI potential. Fans and writers would see his loping strides and his long swings-and-misses and assumed that he didn't work hard to improve himself. Of course, this was the image that people had of Darryl and the expectations heaped upon him, and it had nothing to do with Straw's true abilities.

Straw always had a tenuous love-hate relationship with the fans, and looking back now I feel terrible because it was unfair of the Mets fanbase. He never could have satisfied those expectations.

And the kids of those overbearing parents you remind me of - they usually end up spending thousands of dollars in therapy sessions and end up unhappy.

His BA/OBP/Slugging all went down for the second straight year.

I'm not denying that he's moving in the wrong direction.

I just don't know for sure that it's him eating himself out of a career so much as coasting on a crappy team. How hard would you kill yourself to be great when the difference is 78 or 79 wins instead of 75 or 76?

I agree with TDF in that his environment is a strike against him. I'm curious to see what he does when he inevitably is no longer a Red.

Not all of life has to be about being the best possible baseball player you can be. Ted Williams was driven by it, and that was great

I get the sense that Williams was utterly fascinated by the technical problems of hitting a baseball, but that his drive to excel could be detached from the sport and reattached to the problems involved in fishing or flying airplanes.

Still, your basic point is quite true, in that Williams was not easily distracted by big plates of doughnuts.

Let's not forget that, according to Props, Dunn was by far the unluckiest hitter in the NL in 06. Even if his speed is part of the reason, he's still due for a rebound next year.

I like to bring that up in every single Dunn thread for some reason.

Do you... Do you like Scott Hatteberg? I mean, do you think he's any good?

R:

From post 32: "I am a firm believer in the individual choosing his path."

Adam Dunn is free to go any direction he wants. But I do think as human beings we should at least notice and possibly intercede if we see someone in need.

There is a distinction between allowing someone to find their way in life and not giving a sh*t about how someone conducts their life.

Again, it is clear to me that the group here thinks Adam is fine and all is well. For the sake of TDF and Reds fans I hope that is the case.

But should July come and Dunn is hitting .198 and everyone in lower Ohio is in a tizzy don't claim ignorance. Don't state that nobody could see that coming. Don't come to this forum and complain. You address a problem BEFORE it becomes a problem. Once it's reached full bloom you are proper f*cked.

Again, it is clear to me that the group here thinks Adam is fine and all is well.

Where, exactly, did I say anything even remotely like this???

You make fine points, Harv. Based on what you're saying I think you place a bit more emphasis on baseball players being role models for others. It's fine if I'm incorrect. I'm only speculating, and I agree that baseball players have some responsibility to themselves, their fans and their team in terms of being a role model.

I just think that only goes so far. If you've got talent, that's really what matters. Now, I could go on one end of the spectrum and look at Sir Barrold Bonds. The man's a terrific baseball player, in spite of his many personal problems. He doesn't really get a free pass from many people, though, because he's a jerk. And he pays a lot of attention to his body and how physically fit he is. [Insert generic steroid joke here.]

Dunn, on the other hand, is a football loving, pork rind munching, fishing fanatic and a bit of a slob. But, all things considered he's a pretty decent guy otherwise. He's affable, he speaks his mind and he has a sense of humor while playing baseball.

I think that's how I look at it. Essentially, it's a game. Grown men play it. I understand the other side of it, too; grown men are being paid to play it, and it's technically a job. Baseball players should be held to certain standards by their employers, which can be to a degree dependent on the fans, and so there's some responsibility there.

Even if I disagree with Dunn's personal habits, my main interest is how well he plays baseball. If I'm management, and his weight gain begins to have an obvious effect on his ability, I'd approach him about it. If I'm management, I'd express concern to Dunn and hear his side of it, and then go from there. I think part of Dunn's less-than-standard-Dunn performance could be from being on a perennial non-contender like the Reds. That, and I heard that Austin Kearns was a good friend of his, and he was sad to see him be traded. Sure, that's the nature of the business, but certainly there's some personal feelings involved.

I wouldn't say I'm content, personally, that Adam Dunn has some habits that may be contributing to his decline as a baseball player. Still, it's his choice. In terms of an individual choosing his path, Dunn's chosen one. It might not be one everyone approves of, but I get the feeling that if Adam thought he was unfit to play baseball, he'd do something to fix it. We've got all sorts of guys — different shapes, different sizes, different attitudes — from Sir Barrold Bonds to David Eckstein to Randy Johnson to Pedro Martinez to David Wells to Adam Dunn. Everyone plays the game a slightly different way with a different set of standards and motivations.

The reassuring thing about Dunn is that he's still fairly young. I think he'll do fine.

Harveys is probably my favorite posting primate. . .

I keep imagining Lou Dobbs hammering away about immigration whenever an Adam Dunn thread comes up.

Again, it is clear to me that the group here thinks Adam is fine and all is well. For the sake of TDF and Reds fans I hope that is the case.

I pull for the Reds, and while I don't have my ass on fire about it like you do, I essentially agree with you: I think Dunn's biggest problem is conditioning, and I think the Reds should do something about it. While the players themselves have to take some responsibility, and while the Cardinals and Astros have had clearly better teams anyway, the Reds have mismanaged the Griffey/Kearns/Dunn opportunity by failing to get the three players focused on conditioning, by tearing Dunn and Kearns down in the media, and by continuing to let Griffey play center field and Dunn play left. Those three should have been the LF-RF-1B and treated/valued like the core of the team and accorded the respect of--and been subjected to the demands of--that position. The Reds should also have focused as much as was reasonable on gettng good defensive players to round out the lineup, rather than turning a blind eye to Junior's lack of D in CF and complaining about Dunn's lack of D.

Dunn's attitude does not concern me per se; if he wants to fish or play fantasy football that makes him a like a lot of players and a lot of other American males. But getting fat is not a necessary adjunct of that attitude, although it may be a common one. Were I the Reds owner, GM or MGR, my view would be that Dunn's interest in fantasy football, his carefree interpersonal/media relations style, and his obsession with fishing are his business. His body being in good condition to play baseball to the best of his ability is mine.

I am not a big believer in the "change his approach at the plate" thing. I can see the reasoning, but Adam Dunn's strikeouts are not the biggest issue the Reds face. The fact that they continue to act like as though that is the case illustrates their organizational problems.

Let's not forget that, according to Props, Dunn was by far the unluckiest hitter in the NL in 06. Even if his speed is part of the reason, he's still due for a rebound next year.

I like to bring that up in every single Dunn thread for some reason.

And I will repeat - as I repeat in every Dunn thread - that Dunn is not due for a big rebound next year, and that if you think this you misunderstand PrOPS. PrOPS has always said that Dunn is really unlucky because PrOPS thinks Dunn is a true-talent .280 hitter or so. But we all know that Dunn is nowhere near that. Predicting a big rebound based on PrOPS is following a broken compass.

I like PrOPS generally, but it misses badly for some guys, and Dunn is one of them. I have discussed previously my theories about this.

Adam Dunn would not be the first guy to eat himself out of the major leagues, but then again, he has already earned north of $13 million playing baseball.

That will keep him in pork rinds, bassmasters and hunting dogs for a very long time.

PrOPS has always said that Dunn is really unlucky because PrOPS thinks Dunn is a true-talent .280 hitter or so.

Here are the #s:

Year OPS PROPS
2006 855 1001
2005 927 981
2004 956 991

In 2006, his Props was off by 4 times more than it had been in past years. These numbers point toward Dunn rebounding at least into the low-900s for OPS.

Dunn was also 7-7 in SB this year. Maybe he's been working so hard on his baserunning that his other areas are suffering.

Just got home. Outstanding thread today, re: the effort (less) Mr. Dunn. I hope they're reading this out at Chavez Ravine.