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Friday, April 06, 2012

McCAFFERY: Papelbon gamble pays off for Phillies, Manuel

The McCaffery File: It’s Getting Ugly In Here.

There was Halladay not having allowed a hit since the first inning, his pitch count at a reasonable 92, his competitive streak showing, his work ethic legendary. He’d achieved plenty in a Hall of Fame-qualified career, but never an opening-day complete game. Chances were he would never have more cooperative April weather or opponents’ bats than he did in PNC Park. It could have been another of his signature moments.

Instead, he was pulled from the game.

“I understand it at this point,” Halladay said. “But a couple weeks from now, I am going to fight him.”

Manuel, who enjoys a good fight himself, understood that. Yet he realized, too, that the Phillies had spent $50,000,058 for Papelbon and not a crisp fifty-dollar bill less, and that they expected him to save enough 1-0 games to help an ever-disintegrating offensive team win a pennant anyway.

“That (having Papelbon) did make it easier,” Manuel said. “It did.”

So out came Halladay and in came Papelbon, who would fire 10 pitches, nine for strikes, zero that weren’t as hard and as straight as he could throw a baseball. Together, two of the better pitchers of their generation would need only 2 hours and 14 minutes to make the Phillies 1-0 in a season in which every achievement should matter in a deeper National League East.

Repoz Posted: April 06, 2012 at 07:57 AM | 39 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: history, phillies

Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Sean Forman Posted: April 06, 2012 at 08:33 AM (#4099206)
Repoz, I assume the emphasis is yours.
   2. Jolly Old St. Nick Done Jumped The Ship Posted: April 06, 2012 at 08:42 AM (#4099209)
Yet he realized, too, that the Phillies had spent $50,000,058 for Papelbon and not a crisp fifty-dollar bill less....


What was that $58 all about? Beer and fried chicken?
   3. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 06, 2012 at 08:44 AM (#4099212)
None of this constitutes an argument that Jonathan Papelbon is one of the best pitchers of his generation.

Jonathan Papelbon has the best ERA+ in history for a reliever, through the age of 30, minimum 200 IP.

197 ERA+, 429 IP - Papelbon
181 ERA+, 315 IP - Soria
180 ERA+, 452 IP - Rivera
172 ERA+, 649 IP - Rodriguez
172 ERA+, 377 IP - Harvey

(Yes, he's been better than Rivera. So far.) How many scoreless innings does he need to throw in Philly to get back above the 200 plateau?
   4. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: April 06, 2012 at 08:54 AM (#4099222)
What was that $58 all about? Beer and fried chicken?


He's number 58.
   5. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 06, 2012 at 08:56 AM (#4099226)
For what it's worth, Papelbon is reported to have been one of the few Red Sox who was in excellent shape, healthy and prepared to play down the stretch. He blew game 162 with his trademark bullheaded dependence on the fastball - see also 2009 - rather than because of some unprepraredness to pitch.
   6. Jolly Old St. Nick Done Jumped The Ship Posted: April 06, 2012 at 09:07 AM (#4099233)
Jonathan Papelbon has the best ERA+ in history for a reliever, through the age of 30, minimum 200 IP.

197 ERA+, 429 IP - Papelbon
181 ERA+, 315 IP - Soria
180 ERA+, 452 IP - Rivera
172 ERA+, 649 IP - Rodriguez
172 ERA+, 377 IP - Harvey

(Yes, he's been better than Rivera. So far.)


That's true, but after 1995, when he went back and forth between starting and relieving, Rivera's ERA+ from 1996 through 2000 was 223, and he's now at 206 through age 41. Let's see if Paps can match that. (Not saying that you're arguing that he will.)
   7. AROM Posted: April 06, 2012 at 09:15 AM (#4099239)
He's number 58.


But if spoken, it must be in spanish. Cinco Ocho.
   8. Randy Jones Posted: April 06, 2012 at 09:50 AM (#4099256)
Jonathan Papelbon has the best ERA+ in history for a reliever, through the age of 30, minimum 200 IP.

197 ERA+, 429 IP - Papelbon
181 ERA+, 315 IP - Soria
180 ERA+, 452 IP - Rivera
172 ERA+, 649 IP - Rodriguez
172 ERA+, 377 IP - Harvey

(Yes, he's been better than Rivera. So far.) How many scoreless innings does he need to throw in Philly to get back above the 200 plateau?


Only because you are counting Rivera's time as a starter.

Rivera as a reliever through age 30 - 223 ERA+, 385.1 IP
   9. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 06, 2012 at 09:51 AM (#4099258)
40 more innings, though!

Ah, dammit.
   10. Fly should without a doubt be number !!!!! Posted: April 06, 2012 at 10:08 AM (#4099264)
Papelbon is probably the worst current MLB pitcher, so there's that, in the "con" department.
   11. villageidiom Posted: April 06, 2012 at 10:12 AM (#4099272)
40 more innings, though!

Ah, dammit.
But... but... you're also counting Papelbon's time as a starter!!

Wait... he only started 3 games. And his ERA as a starter is lower than as a reliever.
   12. Randy Jones Posted: April 06, 2012 at 10:27 AM (#4099286)
Just for the hell of it, Rivera after age 30:

227 ERA+, 759 IP

Dude's gotta be a robot or something.
   13. AROM Posted: April 06, 2012 at 10:31 AM (#4099290)
And he still has not reached his peak: Since turning 40: 121.1 innings, 1.85 ERA, 236 ERA+
   14. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 06, 2012 at 10:33 AM (#4099297)
But a mere robot would have malfunctioned by now. I figure he's a future space cyborg who draws his power from children's tears.
   15. AROM Posted: April 06, 2012 at 10:34 AM (#4099299)
More random Mo facts: since 2004, he has not allowed a run in the postseason to any team except the Angels (1 each in 2005 and 2009). This covers 22 1/3 innings against Detroit, Cleveland, Minnesota, Philadelphia, and Texas.
   16. AROM Posted: April 06, 2012 at 10:41 AM (#4099309)
The game circumstances last fall meant that Rivera didn't have an impact in the series against Detroit. In the games the Tigers won, they didn't score late inning runs off other NY relievers, only way Rivera could have turned the series is if Girardi brought him into the 5th inning or something.

But it's hard to top the perfection in the 2 games he pitched: 4 batters faced, 4 outs, and every single pitch thrown was a strike.
   17. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 06, 2012 at 11:10 AM (#4099338)
who would fire 10 pitches, nine for strikes, zero that weren’t as hard and as straight as he could throw a baseball.

Throwing every pitch as hard, and especially as straight, as you can, is not a recipe for success.
   18. Nasty Nate Posted: April 06, 2012 at 11:47 AM (#4099375)
Yet he realized, too, that the Phillies had spent $50,000,058 for Papelbon and not a crisp fifty-dollar bill less


that's not how contracts work. {[{pet peeve}]}
   19. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 06, 2012 at 12:04 PM (#4099394)
who would fire 10 pitches, nine for strikes, zero that weren’t as hard and as straight as he could throw a baseball.

Throwing every pitch as hard, and especially as straight, as you can, is not a recipe for success.
Throwing every pitch as hard as you can is what Jonathan Papelbon does. He has no other way of pitching. It seems to work.

His fastball isn't darting all over the place, but there's no way he's gotten this far in his career, throwing 90% fastballs, without meaningful movement and life on the ball. It has that effect where it "explodes" on the hitter, which I think it a function of a little bit of tailing action and the way he hides the ball in his uniform on release.
   20. Dale Sams Posted: April 06, 2012 at 12:36 PM (#4099422)
More random Mo facts: since 2004, he has not allowed a run in the postseason to any team except the Angels


Same for Papelbon! It's like Lincoln and Kennedy!
   21. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: April 06, 2012 at 12:36 PM (#4099423)
Yet he realized, too, that the Phillies had spent $50,000,058 for Papelbon and not a crisp fifty-dollar bill less

that's not how contracts work. {[{pet peeve}]}


Didn't you hear Nate? They paid him the entire sum up front in cash. They counted out 500,000 $100 bills, a fifty, a five, 2 ones and 4 quarters to feed the parking meter.

Damn, five hundred thousand Franklins.
   22. Shazbot Posted: April 06, 2012 at 02:02 PM (#4099516)
It doesn't mention that the game would have been 1 Hr 58 if Paps stays on the bench, sadly.
   23. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 06, 2012 at 03:14 PM (#4099581)
Throwing every pitch as hard as you can is what Jonathan Papelbon does. He has no other way of pitching.

That makes me dislike him even more. I hate when stupidity is rewarded.

He's violating two of the cardinal rules of pitching: work fast, throw strikes and change speeds.
   24. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 06, 2012 at 03:18 PM (#4099587)
He has a splitter. He throws it as hard as he can.
   25. Walt Davis Posted: April 06, 2012 at 04:05 PM (#4099629)
They counted out 500,000 $100 bills, a fifty, a five, 2 ones and 4 quarters to feed the parking meter.

Really, there's no youtube of the SNL change bank commercial for me to link. Oh well, consider this a conceptual joke then.
   26. alilisd Posted: April 06, 2012 at 04:06 PM (#4099633)
Throwing every pitch as hard, and especially as straight, as you can, is not a recipe for success.


Billy Koch says hello.
   27. Famous Original Joe C Posted: April 06, 2012 at 04:16 PM (#4099644)
Really, there's no youtube of the SNL change bank commercial for me to link. Oh well, consider this a conceptual joke then.

No YouTube SNL anything. I liked it anyway, though.
   28. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: April 06, 2012 at 04:23 PM (#4099649)
SNL has sold all its online rights to Netflix. I'm pretty sure you can now watch any SNL episode ever on Netflix.
   29. Dan Posted: April 06, 2012 at 04:28 PM (#4099653)
I thought SNL was Hulu, not Netflix. Maybe it's both, I dunno. Not a huge fan so I haven't been searching it out.
   30. Crispix Attacks 2: Swag Airlines Posted: April 06, 2012 at 04:30 PM (#4099656)
Papelbon is probably the worst current MLB pitcher, so there's that, in the "con" department.


I see you're using "con" in the Francophone sense.
   31. Smiling Joe Hesketh Posted: April 06, 2012 at 04:46 PM (#4099673)
He's violating two of the cardinal rules of pitching: work fast, throw strikes and change speeds.

I'm pretty sure that those rules are more meaningfully applied to starters. Relievers can get away with not following them so slavishly.

Yes, I'd like to see Papelbon work faster as well.
   32. DA Baracus is gritty and hits with RISP Posted: April 06, 2012 at 05:24 PM (#4099701)
Really, there's no youtube of the SNL change bank commercial for me to link. Oh well, consider this a conceptual joke then.


Here you go.
   33. hokieneer Posted: April 06, 2012 at 11:19 PM (#4099803)
SNL is on Hulu. A few recent episodes are free, the rest are available via Hulu+. A lot more individual clips are available for free though.

Netflix has every episode and some "best of" collections.

   34. Tuque Posted: April 07, 2012 at 03:50 AM (#4099840)
I want to see Master Thespian with Jon Lovitz and John Lithgow. I've wanted to see that for five years. I can't find it anywhere.
   35. Lassus Posted: April 07, 2012 at 09:30 AM (#4099861)
Papelbon is probably the worst current MLB pitcher, so there's that, in the "con" department.

Hilarious that I knew this was Fly without even checking.
   36. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: April 07, 2012 at 01:21 PM (#4099943)
Relievers can get away with not following them so slavishly.


Well, two of them anyway.
   37. Darren Posted: April 07, 2012 at 02:36 PM (#4099982)
I think the point that Matt's post makes is not about whether Papelbon is better than Mariano, nor is it about whether he will last another 10 years at that level. It's that, he's among the few greatest closers ever, and if you are willing to put closers in the HOF, he's headed there--therefore, it's understandable that the writer would call him one of the greatest pitchers of all time.
   38. Randy Jones Posted: April 07, 2012 at 02:54 PM (#4099991)
It's that, he's among the few greatest closers ever, and if you are willing to put closers in the HOF, he's headed there--therefore, it's understandable that the writer would call him one of the greatest pitchers of all time.


He's only thrown like 430 innings and he hasn't hit his decline yet. It's far more likely he flames out and doesn't sniff the HoF, like K-Rod, than he pitches at this level for another 600+ innings.
   39. Ebessan Posted: April 07, 2012 at 02:54 PM (#4099992)
He called him one of the better pitchers of the generation. Pretty sure that that's fair for 430 IP of 198 ERA+ ball and (postseason included) around 19.5 WAR.

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