What I find surprising here is that Baker's math is pretty close to right. He's about a mile and a half into the "marathon" by games played. That Dusty-metrics, buddy.

I think Dusty's head is full of the gross natural byproduct of Chile.

Reasons not to panic include: slow starts, toy poodles, spilt milk

I don't think we've even scratched the surface regarding this subject. There is work to be done here, people!

Despite my distaste for Dusty, I do think he's generally had a very positive initial impact on teams that hire him (granted, there have been just three... but whatever).

However, not that different from other managers, he has a definite expiration date. He's in year 5 in Cincy... with a disappointing 2011 -- odds that the milk is curdling?

And in the offseason, the team made deals and signings that pumped up fandom into thinking this team might win 105 games without really trying.

???? Who did the Reds sign? Signing your own guys for a team with a sub .500 record last year, is not something to make a person think you are a 105 win team.

I'm a big Ludwick fan, but he's not a 25 win improvement.

???? Who did the Reds sign?

Madson -- oops! Swung a deal for Latos.

Also Votto and Phillips extensions (when were Bruce and Cueto?)

And this looks like one of the most Dusty-riffic benches of all-time!

Heisey -- nothing wrong here
Wilson Valdez -- career 66 OPS+, 34 years old
Willie Harris -- 79 OPS+, 34
Cairo -- 78 OPS+, 38
Mesoraco -- nothing wrong here but let's keep an eye on the playing time or if he gets sent down if he doesn't break out soon

Two of Valdez, Harris and Cairo is understandable kinda, but three of them. Somebody here needs to be traded for one of Nady/Tracy on the Nats. :-)

Cairo -- 78 OPS+, 38

Sure, but Miguel has, in the first two seasons, been quite unCairo under Dusty.

And this looks like one of the most Dusty-riffic benches of all-time!

Heisey -- nothing wrong here
Wilson Valdez -- career 66 OPS+, 34 years old
Willie Harris -- 79 OPS+, 34
Cairo -- 78 OPS+, 38
Mesoraco -- nothing wrong here but let's keep an eye on the playing time or if he gets sent down if he doesn't break out soon

Two of Valdez, Harris and Cairo is understandable kinda, but three of them. Somebody here needs to be traded for one of Nady/Tracy on the Nats. :-)

Heh...

Just remember, Reds fans -- F Troop is taken and copyrighted!

Also, panic is under-rated. When you think about, you can only panic early. If you wait until midseason and the team is 20 games under 500 -- well, by that point you've reached a state of resignation and won't have the energy to panic.

Panic early. If you're wrong, you'll have the joy of enjoying the "impossible" comeback. If you're right, you get to say I told you so. I'm sure all of Adam Dunn's fantasy owners last year wish they had panicked.

And if you still haven't panicked about Dunn -- 222/300/333 with 12 K in 27 AB in his last 7 games!!!!

The 2012 Panic All-Stars:

Napoli -- 122/267/250
Pujols -- 243/300/324
Phillips -- 250/286/300
Reyes -- 238/289/357
Ramirez -- 114/179/171 or Rolen 121/171/182
Holliday -- 200/234/356
Stubbs -- 167/211/167
Bautista -- 206/333/324

with your choice of Dunn, Morales or Jesus at DH and Timmeh as your pitcher.

And this looks like one of the most Dusty-riffic benches of all-time!

What's a reasonable expectation for a bench? These 2012 ZiPS projections for OPS+ look pretty bad as well:

Giambi, 1B 112
Colvin, OF 84
Young, OF 78
Nelson*, 3B 79
Pacheco*, 3B 73
Herrera, INF 63
Rosario, C 79

(*These guys were the 3rd base starters; Pacheco was sent down Sunday to get more "reps" at 3rd)

It's even better when you go out and sign older guys and then plan to rest everyone more, including Tulo and CarGo. And instead of spacing the bench starts out through the week, you start them all in Sunday games.

Rosario could be better than that, but at his stage of development, he could do worse, too. I thought maybe Colvin had some upside, but back in the Stewart/Colvin trade thread over the off-season, people didn't seem too optimistic about him.

Crap, it's ten bloody games. Turn the two extra-inning losses this weekend into wins, and they're 6-4, one game behind the Cards. There's nothing to get all frantic about...

What's a reasonable expectation for a bench?

Oh, they all stink, except when they don't. The Reds one isn't really that bad, it's mainly their ages -- old, fringe players can be gone in a second -- and I wanted to give Dusty some crap. :-)

Generally your backup C can't hit and you're happy if you get a 70 out of him. Mesoraco is actually an excellent backup C, if anything he's wasted there. Generally your backup SS can't hit (think 65 OPS+) and often you're carrying an all-speed, no-hit CF backup (think 80-85). That's Harris and Valdez here -- sub-par but not scarily so.

A good bench is mainly made by the 4th OF and the 2B/3B/1B/OF guy, who get about 600-700 PA between them. You want that 4th OF (generally) to be good with the platoon advantage and OK without it. Heisey so far has a 106 OPS+, is at least not embarrasing in CF (overall average). So far in his career he has an extreme reverse platoon split but that's OK. There might be a few better 4th OFs but not many as he would likely start on some teams (or bat cleanup for the Pirates :-). Cairo has been excellent the last two seasons (where did that come from?) but that projection and his inability to play SS any longer should have had him out of the league years ago -- baseball is a funny game.

Where the Reds may have badly mis-stepped is in not taking better advantage of Heisey. Since he's decent enough in CF that allows you to carry a second decent bat (100 OPS+) in the OF, perhaps particularly useful if Ryan Ludwick is your #1 LF and you never know when Stubbs is gonna hit 200 with 200 Ks. This team should want genuine OF depth. Alternatively/additionally, you want a legit alternative to Rolen.