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Friday, April 19, 2013

McCoy: What’s wrong with Votto? ‘NOTHING’

Baker tracer alert!

The thing about Votto is that he still is on base more than half the time he goes to the plate, a .521 on-base average with 22 walks. It is difficult to hit when pitchers nibble at the plate, refusing to offer tantalizing pitches to hit.

“That’s what I used to do,” said manager Dusty Baker. “We’d get 18 hits and I’d get none, then we’d get six hits and I’d have four.”

ABOUT VOTTO’S batting average, Baker said, “I’m not really worried. It’s only 50 at bats (47, actually). It’s hard to explain. Everybody is going to have his turn and Joey will have his turn because water seeks its own level.

“We feel fortunate that we have Brandon Phillips and some other guys swinging good in the middle of the order,” Baker added. “Joey will have his turn to carry this club. He’ll be fine.”

Repoz Posted: April 19, 2013 at 09:07 AM | 46 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: reds

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   1. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: April 19, 2013 at 09:54 AM (#4419141)
I mentioned in the chatter but marty was crushing votto in the snippet I heard as I was checking out various audio feeds last night.
   2. Ok, Griffey's Dunn (Nothing Iffey About Griffey) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 10:01 AM (#4419154)
but marty was crushing votto in the snippet


sounds like Marty. Votto has a .526 OB%, and a .926 OPS while struggling at the plate.
   3. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: April 19, 2013 at 10:04 AM (#4419159)
Griffey

my memory isn't the best but I remember him barking at the guy in the booth with him who was saying votto was drawing a lot of walks, 'he's not paid to walk, he's paid to hit' and basically dismissing any notion that votto was contributing offensively
   4. Dunn Deal Posted: April 19, 2013 at 10:08 AM (#4419165)
my memory isn't the best but I remember him barking at the guy in the booth with him who was saying votto was drawing a lot of walks, 'he's not paid to walk, he's paid to hit' and basically dismissing any notion that votto was contributing offensively


That definitely sounds like something Marty would say, because he's an ass.

One of the best parts of having an MLB.tv subscription is that I can now experience the Reds via their opponents' radio and TV broadcasts, which affords me a pleasant, Brennaman-free experience.
   5. Ok, Griffey's Dunn (Nothing Iffey About Griffey) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 10:12 AM (#4419171)
Didn't they used to say similar things about Ted Williams? I'm wondering if it would benefit the Reds to switch Votto and Choo in the line up for a little bit (they can't hit back-to-back for Dusty, since you gotta break up those lefthanders). Votto's getting nothing to hit, maybe if he's leading off the pitchers will challenge him more.
   6. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: April 19, 2013 at 10:20 AM (#4419185)
Why is he taking all these walks!

Why is he swinging at so many bad pitches!

Why is he taking all these walks!

Why is he swinging at so many bad pitches!

Being a big leaguer can be tough. I mean, the money is nice, but it's tough.
   7. Arva Posted: April 19, 2013 at 10:25 AM (#4419192)
Marty Brennaman is really, really, awful. My favorite Marty Brennanman moment. I think it was 2009, and Edwin Encarnacion came to the plate with a chance to win the game. Brennanman and Jeff Brantley (also awful, and perhaps the least self aware man on earth) are just running the guy down. Finally, Brennanman and Brantley decide that EE should bunt, because, as Brantley puts it, "[EE] is just not clutch". Brennanman agrees. Dusty calls for the bunt, whcih EE screws up, getting see I told you sos from the both. Next pitch, walk off home run for EE.

I have never seen annoucers as prone to run down their own players as Brennanman and Brantley. Brennanman is purely a nepotism hire, and makes watching Reds games unbearable.
   8. Dunn Deal Posted: April 19, 2013 at 11:02 AM (#4419248)
I was watching that game live and I remember being ticked off at Brantley. But the timing was exquisite, because the walk-off HR happened about 3 seconds after Brantley emphatically declared that Edwin "is not a clutch player." The thing that REALLY got me mad was that it was the freaking 2nd game of the season! 2 games in and they were already running down the Reds' players.

One note: it was Thom Brennaman doing the TV telecast, not Marty.

Link to the game in question

Blog post from 2008 referencing this Brantley incident

I unfortunately couldn't find any video of the telecast, but it's really a delight to watch.

edit: Here's a transcript of the broadcast
   9. Arva Posted: April 19, 2013 at 11:25 AM (#4419278)
Sorry, got the wrong Brennanman! Both run down players like crazy, though, and its just wierd. They're the anti-homers.

The other thing I remember from that pairing is when the Cardinals played the Reds, Brantley complained that Duncan wanted him to pitch down and away. Brantley basically siad, "I'm just not that kind of pitcher, I made my success challenging the hitter." Brantley's Cards ERA, 4.44, with 12 homers in 50 IP and it just got worse every year after that. Maybe you shoulda listened to Duncan their, Jeffy.
   10. Lassus Posted: April 19, 2013 at 11:29 AM (#4419284)
but marty was crushing votto in the snippet I heard
One note: it was Thom Brennaman doing the TV telecast, not Marty


How Hawk gets continually pegged as the worst announcer alive when these guys are around is a real mystery.
   11. Dunn Deal Posted: April 19, 2013 at 11:38 AM (#4419300)
How Hawk gets continually pegged as the worst announcer alive when these guys are around is a real mystery.


Indeed. I much prefer oafish homerism from an announcer than a constant stream of negativity. They're a father/son baseball version of Billy Packer - it seems like they don't realize that other MLB teams are good, and that it's not realistic to expect the Reds to win 162 games a year.
   12. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: April 19, 2013 at 11:49 AM (#4419320)
When Marty sticks to describing the game, he's still very good. There's a reason he won the Frick Award. His analysis has been terrible for some time, and I pay it no mind.
   13. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: April 19, 2013 at 12:00 PM (#4419336)
steve

I am old but I don't think I even sound as bitter as marty. did something happen in his personal life that has not been shared?

why is this guy so d8mn caustic half the time?
   14. Dunn Deal Posted: April 19, 2013 at 12:16 PM (#4419357)
When Marty sticks to describing the game, he's still very good. There's a reason he won the Frick Award.


That's definitely true. It's just getting harder for me to wade through all of the negative ranting in order to hear the skilled in-game descriptions.
   15. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:09 PM (#4419416)
I am old but I don't think I even sound as bitter as marty. did something happen in his personal life that has not been shared?

He's twice divorced, but it's been several years since the second one. Can't say if that's the cause.
   16. Traderdave Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:22 PM (#4419513)
To be fair, Marty is still a very good PBP man. When the play ends, though, it's the Gospel According to St. Martin.

He was always in love with himself but winning the Frick is what ruined him. His ego went from strong to gargantuan. A big part of his style has always been the anti-homer, willing to criticize the home team when they deserve it. In an interview from around the time of his induction I recall him going on at length about it, and about how proud he was to be considered "credible" for it. While he naturally didn't say so explicitly, it was clear that he thought this was a major reason for his canonization.

Seems that the bigger his head is, the more he needs to display his HOF-worth credibility.

But as annoying a tool as he his, he's Vin-######-Scully compared to Brantley.

   17. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:35 PM (#4419532)
As a Cubs fan, I'm shamed to say I've always liked Thom's voice. I don't disagree with any of the sentiments shared in this thread, however.
   18. Ok, Griffey's Dunn (Nothing Iffey About Griffey) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 03:01 PM (#4419563)
He's twice divorced, but it's been several years since the second one. Can't say if that's the cause.


Pretty sure he is married again. She was on the field when Marty got his head shaved after the Reds won 10 in-a-row.
   19. cardsfanboy Posted: April 19, 2013 at 03:05 PM (#4419569)
Marty Brennaman is really, really, awful


I honestly think he is the worst announcer in MLB. Hawk, Buck, McLaughlin, Hudler, those Yankee gals and guys etc... all wish they could descend to the depths that Brennaman(both) has achieved.

As a Cubs fan, I'm shamed to say I've always liked Thom's voice.


Agreed, but then you have the words coming out of that voice and if you are paying attention to it, it ruins the entire game. I hate watching a game and yelling at the stupid announcer. (well sometimes I love it, but generally it brings the experience down)
   20. Red Menace Posted: April 19, 2013 at 03:14 PM (#4419583)
Paul Daugherty wrote an article (or possible blog post) criticizing Votto that centered around the "he's not paid to walk" line. It's not worth linking here. That's what set Marty on that path. Mark Sheldon was the MLB.com beat writer on the air with Marty at the time. He did as good a job as can be expected making the points we all would.

#8 I was at the "Edwin is not clutch" game. Amazing. As we were jumping around in celebration my dad called me to complain about Brantley.
   21. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: April 19, 2013 at 03:37 PM (#4419601)
red

thanks. I didn't know who the other guy was because marty stomped on him so quickly the guy shut down

   22. Moeball Posted: April 19, 2013 at 04:12 PM (#4419643)
my memory isn't the best but I remember him barking at the guy in the booth with him who was saying votto was drawing a lot of walks, 'he's not paid to walk, he's paid to hit' and basically dismissing any notion that votto was contributing offensively


Didn't they used to say similar things about Ted Williams?


Yes. And they said the same crap about Mickey Mantle, and Frank Thomas, and Barry Bonds, and...

Anybody who ever walked a lot, particularly when there were runners on base, gets this kind of treatment from the media. It has always, always, always been idiotic.

Let me see if I understand this - the batter who works the pitcher for a walk and refuses to swing at pitches out of the strike zone, keeping the rally alive, is the bad guy because "he's not paid to walk, he's paid to hit". This bleating always gets the loudest when the guy coming up after the "walker" is a born rally killer. "Well, if Big Slugger had been willing to expand his strike zone and swing away instead of taking that walk, he might have driven in a run. Instead, he took the coward's way out and left it up to Rally Killer McGillicuddy who, of course, swung at a pitch in the dirt and hit into an inning ending double play." Yet the criticism is always for the guy who walked and kept the rally alive and never for the guy who's always killing rallies. I have never understood this but it has always been this way and probably always will. If you read old articles on Williams and Mantle, and stuff from the nineties on Thomas and Bonds, you'll see a lot of this type of commentary. If Joey Votto is hearing this stuff now, he's in very good company.

BTW, one of the worst things to hear from an announcer is basically "do as I say, not as I did". Joe Morgan used to constantly say on broadcasts that hitters should be up there hacking with runners on, and be less selective in those situations where there's a chance to drive in a run. Funny, but Joe was a guy who used to routinely walk over 100 times a season when he played, including a lot of times when he was up with runners on base. His career walk % with bases empty: 16% of PA. His career walk % with runners on base: 17% of PA. I guess he doesn't remember any of that.

Votto has a .526 OB%, and a .926 OPS while struggling at the plate.


This is the mark of a great hitter when numbers like this are referred to as "struggling". I wish my entire Padres lineup could "struggle" like that.
   23. Ok, Griffey's Dunn (Nothing Iffey About Griffey) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 04:17 PM (#4419647)
It has always, always, always been idiotic.


It's even more idiotic right now with Votto, because the guys behind him are crushing it. Phillips and Frazier have been huge, Bruce has been ok. The team's scoring almost 6 runs a game. Might that be partly because your #3 hitter is leading the league in times on-base?
   24. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: April 19, 2013 at 04:25 PM (#4419662)
Didn't one of the Brennamans launch a years-long jihad against Adam Dunn?
   25. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: April 19, 2013 at 04:30 PM (#4419670)
cfbf

it was more than a year (it was 3-4) and it was both of them though marty was the one handing out the pitchforks and revving up the lynching party
   26. Walt Davis Posted: April 19, 2013 at 07:04 PM (#4419802)
Well, other than the walks, Votto is kinda "struggling."

First, he's walking nearly once per 3 PA. He's on pace for 240 walks on the year. That is a LOT of walking.

Unlike St. Barry however, at the moment, he's not crushing the ball. BA of 280, SLG of just 400. He has 1 HR and only 2 other XBH in 50 AB.

This actually could be a disturbing trend. He had 37 HR in 648 PA (547 AB) in 2010. This fell to 29 in 719 PA (599 AB) in 2011 but he added 40 doubles. In 2012 it was just 14 HR in 475 PA (374 AB) but he raked 44 doubles to keep his ISO up.

The BABIP (one of the best) is still there. But HR/FB has not been good. 2010 was an outlier at 16.3%; 2011 was right in line with his usual at 10.8% but last year it was down to 7.9% and this year it's been 6.7%. So far this year, he's a massive GB machine when he does swing with a 1.4 G/F ratio.

Now obviously as long as he continues to draw a walk every 3-4 PA he's creating a lot of value but surely that's going to stop at some point -- he ain't Super Barry. Also I assume at some point the hitting part of his hitting will return to normal. But he is having an historically strange season so far and I'd imagine you'd have a hard time finding many 70 PA stretches where any batter has put up this sort of line (Bonds in a slump, maybe Rickey). The continuing lack of HR power from last year is a bit troubling.

Equally obviously, he's not going to get out of this "slump" by swinging at pitches outside the zone but it does seem like he must be letting some good pitches go by and the G/F ratio suggests he might not be picking the best strikes to swing at.

A question for the Reds fans and HW ... is he hitting a lot of ground balls the other way to foil the shift? That's the only "strategic" reason I can think of for there to have been a change.
   27. Ok, Griffey's Dunn (Nothing Iffey About Griffey) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 07:33 PM (#4419837)
Walt, I don't think opposing teams have every really shifted on Votto. He has always hit a ton of balls to the opposite field.
   28. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: April 19, 2013 at 08:11 PM (#4419898)
it could be his power hasn't returned since the injury

he could be George sisler now
   29. vortex of dissipation Posted: April 19, 2013 at 08:22 PM (#4419913)
He hit four home runs in 52 AB during spring training (his line was .346/.460/.673) and everyone heaved a sigh of relief that his power was back. But it hasn't carried on during the regular season.
   30. Dunn Deal Posted: April 19, 2013 at 09:37 PM (#4420027)
A question for the Reds fans and HW ... is he hitting a lot of ground balls the other way to foil the shift?


Not really - it seems like he's JUUUST off. His pitch recognition is still top notch (obviously) but he's rolling over on pitches that he in the past would have destroyed. I remember one 3-0 fastball late in the game against the cards. Votto got a fastball right down the pipe and cut it loose, but hit a hard grounder to second.

He's not locked in right now with his swing - but I don't think it's anything to worry about yet.
   31. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: April 19, 2013 at 09:45 PM (#4420045)
Keith Herndandez was just criticizing Lucas Duda for "being too passive" at the plate. On THE NEXT PITCH, Dude smacks a majestic homer to straight away centerfield. Awesome.
   32. madvillain Posted: April 19, 2013 at 10:01 PM (#4420070)
Votto is being very, very patient, and frankly if he can get on base 50% of the time with this approach, I don't know why he'd change it. His wRC+ is still a whopping 162, even with the lack of power.

Here's the swing % data differences from his career averages and this year.

He's swinging at only 16.5% of pitches outside the zone -- career average is 25.2%.

Inside the zone, he's only swinging at 59.4%, compared to a career average of 70.3%

___________________

The averages are a bit skewed towards his early years however. Clear downward trends jump off the page with Votto's swing % data. His swing percentage has dropped a whopping 20% on all pitches seen from 2007 to '13, with a clear downward trend every single year except 2010, when it briefly ticked up.

I'm not really a Votto fan or a NL fan so I don't have any idea from observation why he's doing this, but the data says he is. He's getting on base 50% with this approach so anyone faulting him for it is a moron that doesn't understand how runs are scored.
   33. Dunn Deal Posted: April 19, 2013 at 10:05 PM (#4420072)
He's getting on base 50% with this approach so anyone faulting him for it is a moron that doesn't understand how runs are scored.


Yeah, that's pretty much my problem with the morons complaining about Votto. His OBP so far this year would be the 8th best EVER if he could maintain it for a full season. It's pretty damn hard to reach base over half the time and not be a huge offensive asset, despise the Brennamans' inability to understand that fact.
   34. Walt Davis Posted: April 19, 2013 at 11:23 PM (#4420148)
if he can get on base 50% of the time with this approach, I don't know why he'd change it

But he ain't gonna be able to do that if he keeps lugging 400 and is only gonna hit 10 HR a year. OK, I suppose he could be the new Wade Boggs.

Since 1990, only four player-seasons with an OBP of 450 or better and an ISO under 250 -- Olerud at 236, Thomas at 234, Edgar at 223, Chipper at 210. The other 32+ seasons were 250 or better, 20 of them 300 or better. Votto's career ISO is 234 and he's had only one season substantially above that.

Pitchers have obviously been pitching around him a bit, that will change if he doesn't start to hit. I assume both will happen -- they'll start throwing him more strikes, he'll start hitting more strikes and he'll go back to pretty standard Votto.

Inside the zone, he's only swinging at 59.4%, compared to a career average of 70.3%

And that is likely a problem. It's certainly not a good sign if he's being more selective but producing substantially less when he swings.

And good catch on the injury ... his Sept line was 316/505/421 with 0 HR and 8 doubles in 76 AB and 28 BB in 105 PA.

Don't get me wrong, in a way this would be one of the most amazing things I've ever seen in baseball if he turns himself into Boggs (lower BA but even more BB) and even doing it for 200 PA to get through a rough patch shows what a great hitter Votto is. But it just can't be sustainable.

And, yeah, 1 HR in 181 PA is time to panic.*

* As I always say, it's NEVER too early to panic. If you wait too long, either things even out or they don't but either way it's too late to panic. The whole point of panic is to do it early.

   35. Ok, Griffey's Dunn (Nothing Iffey About Griffey) Posted: April 20, 2013 at 03:52 PM (#4420491)
Joey hit his 2nd hr today. SLG% up to .449, OB% still over .500.

And, yeah, 1 HR in 181 PA is time to panic.*


2 hr in his last 22 AB's now. Slugging machine. :-)
   36. AJMcCringleberry Posted: April 20, 2013 at 07:45 PM (#4420740)
Brennanman and Jeff Brantley

I don't listen to the Reds broadcasts anymore because of their announcers. I haven't listened to Brantley since 2005 (I think he was with ESPN then) when he spent half a game just ragging on Beltran saying he didn't care about playing hard since he got a huge contract.
   37. Howie Menckel Posted: April 20, 2013 at 10:22 PM (#4420870)

"Yet the criticism is always for the guy who walked and kept the rally alive and never for the guy who's always killing rallies."

can we have both?
if you're one of the 5 best hitters in the league, and the guy behind you in a big spot is terrible - do you think that the stud hitter should pay NO mind to who is behind him?
   38. cardsfanboy Posted: April 20, 2013 at 10:30 PM (#4420875)
if you're one of the 5 best hitters in the league, and the guy behind you in a big spot is terrible - do you think that the stud hitter should pay NO mind to who is behind him?


If you are one of the top five hitters in the league and the guy behind you is terrible, then maybe the team needs to worry more about getting a better manager/gm than worrying about your performance in those situations.
   39. Howie Menckel Posted: April 20, 2013 at 10:39 PM (#4420878)

"If you are one of the top five hitters in the league and the guy behind you is terrible, then maybe the team needs to worry more about getting a better manager/gm than worrying about your performance in those situations."

fascinating

now can we get back to the actual at-bat? should the stud hitter expand his zone by 0.5 pct, or should he try even harder than usual to draw a walk so he can show up his GM? or should he, at that moment, focus more on what helps the team win the game?

nuance has left the building - again

   40. cardsfanboy Posted: April 20, 2013 at 10:51 PM (#4420882)
now can we get back to the actual at-bat? should the stud hitter expand his zone by 0.5 pct, or should he try even harder than usual to draw a walk so he can show up his GM? or should he, at that moment, focus more on what helps the team win the game?


What difference does it make over the course of the season. If the guy has a terrible hitter behind him, and he's one of the best in the league, then that implies his team offense sucks. They aren't going to win many games anyway. Might as well play to what is best for the team, and obp is always best for the team assuming the guy batting behind you is not the worst hitting pitcher in MLB.

But if you are talking about one particular at bat, in which the situation comes up because of a double switch or something....then it of course depends on the specific situation, more than just whether the guy behind him is terrible. Heck the largest factor is something that only the batter himself could know, and that is how much of a performance drop can he expect if he expands his zone? How does it affect his line drive rate? how does it affect his swing and miss rate? etc.

   41. Howie Menckel Posted: April 20, 2013 at 11:05 PM (#4420895)

maybe "always" and "never" threw me off.

"Yet the criticism is always for the guy who walked and kept the rally alive and never for the guy who's always killing rallies."
   42. Dan Posted: April 21, 2013 at 02:49 AM (#4420946)
Good article on Votto, home runs, etc.:

Joey Votto on Hitting

It touches on the injury, the increased selectiveness at the plate, and leveling out his swing to get on base at the expense of a few homers per year.
   43. vortex of dissipation Posted: April 21, 2013 at 04:15 AM (#4420954)
He's now at .305/.517/.458. This is a problem?
   44. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: April 21, 2013 at 02:13 PM (#4421214)
votto with a homer today.
   45. Ok, Griffey's Dunn (Nothing Iffey About Griffey) Posted: April 21, 2013 at 04:16 PM (#4421395)
.328/.522/.516 after today's game. Hopefully, the slump will end soon...
   46. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: April 21, 2013 at 04:18 PM (#4421398)
Griffey

ha, ha

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