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Sunday, June 24, 2012

McGrath: Ichiro: Try exiting the Edgar way

Bah…Ichiro! can win The Edgar Martinez Award if he wants to!

Ichiro turns 39 in October. Although durability isn’t an issue, he’s lost a step essential for somebody who thrives on beating out infield grounders, and he’s not getting it back. Ichiro’s decline from 2010, his last All-Star season, mirrors Martinez’s decline after his last All-Star season, in 2003.

Martinez retired with the same regal style that distinguished him as a player. Will Ichiro follow Edgar’s cue?

It’s a delicate question for an organization whose majority owner lives in Japan, and rightfully regards Ichiro to be a national treasure. But as the skills of Japan’s national treasure continue to diminish in Seattle, it’s a question that will linger.

...• Ask Edgar to reminisce with Ichiro about the experience of a retirement weekend. During a season-ending series against the Texas Rangers in 2004, the Mariners honored Martinez on a Saturday night, in front of full-house crowd at Safeco Field. Baseball commissioner Bud Selig showed up, informing fans that the annual prize for best designated hitter would henceforth be known as “The Edgar Martinez Award.”

...Edgar isn’t big on talking, and Ichiro isn’t big on listening, but the conversation might turn a thorny conundrum into a classic storybook conclusion.

The one where everybody lives happily ever after.

Repoz Posted: June 24, 2012 at 06:46 AM | 32 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: history, mariners

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   1. Esoteric throws a 'hard slider' Posted: June 24, 2012 at 11:43 AM (#4164707)
I give the odds that Ichiro retires at the end of this season at somewhere near 90%.
   2. The District Attorney Posted: June 24, 2012 at 12:22 PM (#4164735)
That does sound right. He isn't close enough to 3,000 MLB hits to keep going on that basis. And it's hard to envision him playing anywhere but Seattle, not only because it's been his only MLB home for a decade etc., but because he simply isn't good enough for other teams to want him.

The one thing that concerns me is that Seattle did bring Ken Griffey Jr. back for "one more season" when anyone with a brain could have foreseen that it would be a disaster. And that was on a team that people (incorrectly) thought might do something, as opposed to a team like the '13 Mariners that doesn't figure to contend and figures to draw poorly anyway. (I have no clue whether a crappy, decrepit version of Ichiro actually does continue to draw fans, but the question is whether Mariner management thinks he does.)
   3. RMc and His Roster of Rubbish Posted: June 24, 2012 at 12:37 PM (#4164742)
Ichiro for Jeter, straight up. You know it makes sense.
   4. Monty Posted: June 24, 2012 at 12:52 PM (#4164752)
On the other hand, he has the second-most WAR on the team. I'd say "there are plenty of other holes to fill" but the team is basically all holes at this point. My point is that we don't need to hustle Ichiro out the door unless there's a replacement for him somewhere.
   5. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: June 24, 2012 at 02:35 PM (#4164800)
491 hits to reach 3,000, 469 "behind" Pete Rose with the transpacific asterisk. Presumably 90 closer than that by season's end. ETA for both: the first half of 2015 (unless he craters).

Ichiro has gone from leading the AL every year in hits to being 9th last year, and 8th so far in 2012. It's not as if he's holding back Seattle's offensive ugh!-ernaut, or that he's blocking the 25-, 27-, and 29-year-old outfielders playing CF and RF in Triple-A.

He's in the Mike Mussina boat. "Do I want to commit to another three years of this?"
   6. Crispix Attacks 2: Swag Airlines Posted: June 24, 2012 at 02:49 PM (#4164816)
It's time for Ichiro to take on a new challenge, and see if he can break Pat Borders's record for most career hits with the Tacoma Rainiers.
   7. Ray (RDP) Posted: June 24, 2012 at 03:55 PM (#4164916)
I remember having to argue with people a couple years ago who were taking the irrational position that Ichiro would just keep churning out his typical seasons into his 40s.
   8. Jarrod HypnerotomachiaPoliphili(Teddy F. Ballgame) Posted: June 24, 2012 at 04:02 PM (#4164927)
I'm sure I'm one of those people you're talking about, Ray, although my contention was that he'd stay pretty consistent until 40. In fact, his skills have atrophied to the point that it would take three more years at this rate instead of two to reach 3K MLB hits.

Boy, is there egg on my face.
   9. bunyon Posted: June 24, 2012 at 04:11 PM (#4164940)
I really don't know anything at all about Ichiro the person. Is there any chance he'd go back to Japan and play?
   10. The Ghost of Sox Fans Past Posted: June 24, 2012 at 04:31 PM (#4164970)
I really don't know anything at all about Ichiro the person. Is there any chance he'd go back to Japan and play?

Other Japanese players from the Mariners have done that - retiring early despite nice MLB contracts. I've suspected under the table dealings with the Japanese owner.

491 hits to reach 3,000, 469 "behind" Pete Rose with the transpacific asterisk. Presumably 90 closer than that by season's end. ETA for both: the first half of 2015 (unless he craters).


I have noticed that the numbers to make 3,000 in MLB and to "beat" Rose are conveniently close. However, it could become an inexorable crawl through the last hundred hits.

Ichiro is making $18 million this year - they need to get rid of that huge salary, and even half that is too much for what he brings. The young OF's look pretty good lately, those being Guttierez, Saunders and Wells. Ichiro needs to get out of their way. But he could well be back.

   11. The District Attorney Posted: June 24, 2012 at 04:33 PM (#4164973)
On the other hand, he has the second-most WAR on the team.
And #1 is Brendan Ryan (184/284/288, 65 OPS+)?? Sweet Christ. That's quite a commentary on both the Mariners and the WAR stat (not to deny that Ryan is a great defender.)

It's true that Seattle doesn't exactly have a cavalcade of potential stars to replace Ichiro, but those guys wouldn't make $17 million like he does either. Okay, fine, I'm sure he's not going to make $17M next year. But how much of a paycut do you expect him to take? I guess a lot depends on what exactly he asks for. Again, though, you risk the Griffey situation where the guy is awful and you're damned if you play him and damned if you don't. Maybe you don't mind, because the team will stink anyway... or maybe you figure that there's no point trying to rehabilitate a 39-year-old, because the team will stink anyway.

I suppose it is still early enough in the season that Ichiro can extend his career a couple of years by hitting .350 or something the rest of the way. That might not actually prove "he's back!", but, it will elicit a very different reaction than if he puts up back-to-back bad years. That said, right now his 2011-12 performance is extremely marginal. Please do not cite "hits" as if it means something when a guy who plays every game and hits leadoff is hitting .270 with no walks or power. That's terrible.

If I can attempt to read two peoples' minds simultaneously, I suspect #1 was implying that Ichiro knows he's playing badly and will retire of his own volition, and he seems like a proud enough person to make that quite plausible.
   12. GregD Posted: June 24, 2012 at 04:55 PM (#4165022)
By stats he's still a plus defender. Does that comport with what people see? I don't watch any Mariners games if I can help it. I guess I go with don't dump a disappointing player until you've got a backup plan.
   13. Best Regards, L.M. Posted: June 24, 2012 at 09:36 PM (#4165310)
I have noticed that the numbers to make 3,000 in MLB and to "beat" Rose are conveniently close. However, it could become an inexorable crawl through the last hundred hits.
If the Mariners aren't competitive the next few seasons, the team would probably be willing to put up with that.
   14. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: June 24, 2012 at 09:57 PM (#4165326)
I remember having to argue with people a couple years ago who were taking the irrational position that Ichiro would just keep churning out his typical seasons into his 40s.

Ah Ray, we always new you'd give us the "told you so's" once Ichiro! declined. However I recall the discussions as being more of the "is Ichiro! a hall of famer" type of variety. And most here thought, not really but the MSM will see it differently and put him in anyway simply because he is, was, and will always be Ichiro!
   15. Ray (RDP) Posted: June 24, 2012 at 10:07 PM (#4165331)
Ah Ray, we always new you'd give us the "told you so's" once Ichiro! declined. However I recall the discussions as being more of the "is Ichiro! a hall of famer" type of variety. And most here thought, not really but the MSM will see it differently and put him in anyway simply because he is, was, and will always be Ichiro!


Not really. Most people thought (and think), "he IS a Hall of Famer, because of his NPB+MLB career."

And basically those same people thought, "Even if you don't count his NPB career, he's ALMOST done enough in MLB anyway, so this will be a moot point before too long." This was the crux of the debate, as these people were sure that he was going to do enough in MLB anyway - and were sure he was almost there. I saw him as being further away, needing to approach 2600 games (Dwight Evans's number) at his then-established level of play.

Some people, like Andy, felt that he had done enough in MLB already.

Some people, like Srul, criticized me for daring to hold the opinion that Ichiro wasn't deserving.

A handful of people, like Chris, basically saw it like I do, more or less.

Ichiro might be done, and he's an excellent-fielding, excellent running, corner OF with 1820 games and a .285 EqA. That's not a Hall of Famer.




   16. Ray (RDP) Posted: June 24, 2012 at 10:30 PM (#4165352)
Example, from an April 1, 2011 thread:

Tuque:
And the debate itself will hardly even matter anymore, because by that point he'll have earned it statistically as well as historically.


Ray:
Yes, this is what everyone bizarrely takes as a given. But I don't see why we'd think a 37 year old player will just keep rolling along for several more years.


   17. Misirlou is bad, he's nationwide Posted: June 24, 2012 at 11:26 PM (#4165384)
And the debate itself will hardly even matter anymore, because by that point he'll have earned it statistically as well as historically.


It's over. It's always been over.
   18. willcarrolldoesnotsuk Posted: June 24, 2012 at 11:34 PM (#4165398)
Maybe it's finally time that Ichiro should start wanting to hit home runs.
   19. mjs548 Posted: July 04, 2012 at 10:26 PM (#4173250)
Ichiro has gone from leading the AL every year in hits to being 9th last year, and 8th so far in 2012. It's not as if he's holding back Seattle's offensive ugh!-ernaut, or that he's blocking the 25-, 27-, and 29-year-old outfielders playing CF and RF in Triple-A.


He may not be blocking anyone but he's got to be holding the offense back. Since beginning of last season, he may have 12th most hits in ML but he has the most AB. He's 3rd in PA but 34th in times on base (including ROE). He is, of course, #1 in outs made.

.300 OBP with no power? Yikes! It will be interesting to see the level of offers he receives to play next year.
   20. Ray (RDP) Posted: July 04, 2012 at 10:47 PM (#4173271)
.290 OBP now. It's getting a bit sad, actually.
   21. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 04, 2012 at 11:37 PM (#4173311)
Martinez retired with the same regal style that distinguished him as a player.


Edgar didn't retire with "dignity" or "regal style". He spent the last ten years of his career as a DH, and only retired when his body was no longer capable of holding up under even the least-strenuous parts of a professional baseball player's job.

If he'd retired with dignity, it would've been at the point in his career when he was no longer physically robust enough to play in the field.
   22. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 04, 2012 at 11:47 PM (#4173313)
Yeah, a .305/.412/.518 slash line for his age 35-40 seasons; .296/.406/.489 at age 40, then one down year and he retires.

Have to be a fool to want those six years on your team.
   23. DKDC Posted: July 04, 2012 at 11:57 PM (#4173318)
Ichiro for Jeter, straight up. You know it makes sense.


That reminds me, does anyone think Jeter can hit .400 this year?

He only has to hit .500 from here on out.
   24. Misirlou is bad, he's nationwide Posted: July 05, 2012 at 12:02 AM (#4173320)
That reminds me, does anyone think Jeter can hit .400 this year?

He only has to hit .500 from here on out.


Bigger question is, can Jeter hit .300 this year?
   25. Morty Causa Posted: July 05, 2012 at 12:10 AM (#4173325)
No way he hits .300. I said this back in April when he was hitting .400 and many were creaming in their Yankee replica uniforms.

OTOH, Pujols is back on his feed.
   26. DA Baracus is gritty and hits with RISP Posted: July 05, 2012 at 12:12 AM (#4173326)
Since beginning of last season, he may have 12th most hits in ML but he has the most AB.


That's more the Mariners' fault for batting him lead off last year and lead off and third this year than it is for Ichiro showing up to work everyday.

And also, when you type "Ichiro" in BR, you get Ichiro and Pablo "Fat Ichiro" Sandoval? That's lame.
   27. PreservedFish Posted: July 05, 2012 at 12:24 AM (#4173331)
I've noticed recently that when you google "[baseball player] fangraphs," the first link is Baseball-Reference.
   28. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 05, 2012 at 08:29 AM (#4173385)
Yeah, a .305/.412/.518 slash line for his age 35-40 seasons; .296/.406/.489 at age 40, then one down year and he retires.


And what would Mr. Glass have hit if he'd been playing in the field like a real player?

He was a hothouse flower, thriving only under unnatural conditions that hid his fundamental weakness.
   29. Neutral Milk Dotel (Dan Lee) Posted: July 05, 2012 at 08:35 AM (#4173388)
I've noticed recently that when you google "[baseball player] fangraphs," the first link is Baseball-Reference.
Rich grandpas can only pay for so much. They just aren't going to have the cash to outgun USA Today in the search engine wars.
   30. bfan Posted: July 05, 2012 at 08:46 AM (#4173392)

That's more the Mariners' fault for batting him lead off last year and lead off and third this year


That and the fact that he never walks. seriously, how long does a .646 OPS corner outfielder get to play until someone says "Let's try something else."
   31. Neutral Milk Dotel (Dan Lee) Posted: July 05, 2012 at 08:53 AM (#4173400)
seriously, how long does a .646 OPS corner outfielder get to play until someone says "Let's try something else."
Depends how long Eric Wedge is the manager, I'd imagine. This is the same guy who just kept rolling Aaron Boone out to third base in the middle of a pennant race in 2005 despite Boone's utter inability to move sideways, hit a baseball, or get on base.

If you play the game "the right way" and work hard, Wedge seems unconcerned with performance. Wedge is an extremely likable guy, mind you, but his willingness to stick with veterans who "grind" is maddening.
   32. Rants Mulliniks (formerly Cold Prosimian) Posted: July 05, 2012 at 09:16 AM (#4173404)
I have to say Ichiro wouldn't get my HOF vote (if I had one). If he at least had doubles power and a .SLG close to .450 I would, but he doesn't even have that. Really, the claims of him being able to hit homers if he wanted are laughable. He's averaged less than 23 doubles per 600 AB, less than noted powerhouse Richie Ashburn.

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