Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

McManamon: A conversation with the Indians’ Mark Shapiro

Don’t have time to go through all of this (rifling through latest Bad//Dreems takes precedent!)...and it’s only Part 1.

A: It would change the amount of spent to 15 million dollars a year. What does that buy you in free agency? Very little. One and a half wins.

Q: How is that figure determined?

A: Our analysts can put a value on what it costs in free agency to sign a player and what that means in Wins Above Replacement and what those players end up costing in free agency and that changes every year. They measure all the players signed in free agency and what their history has been and what they offer going forward and they place a value. The challenge in free agency is you’re often paying for that in the first year of a contract, and in the out years of a contract the players WAR usually goes down because he’s usually past his prime. So it becomes a less efficient contract over time. That’s why free agency is never the best way to build. It’s a good way to supplement but not build.

Q: So $8 million for one win?

A: It’s $9 (million) now. It was $8 (million) two yeas ago. I think at the end of this year they figured out it was nine. And when those wins come in the win curve are important. What does that win mean if it’s the difference between 80 and 81? Very little. But if that win’s the difference between 89 and 90, that could be a meaningful win.

...Q: So at some point you all sit back and say this is what this player could mean in terms of wins.

A: Yeah. Either runs created or runs prevented. Ultimately you’re trying to impact those two areas of the team. The position player can impact both those areas, and sometimes the runs created gets looked at disproportionally to the runs prevented. And sometimes the sum of the guy’s value in offensive performance is undermined by some of his defensive value.

Repoz Posted: October 24, 2012 at 10:10 AM | 4 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: indians

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Most doorknobs are on the right side of the doors Posted: October 24, 2012 at 11:32 AM (#4281458)
Seems like the Indians use a replacement level close to average if they're getting $9M/win.
   2. donlock Posted: October 24, 2012 at 11:37 AM (#4281464)
Our analysts can put a value on what it costs in free agency to sign a player and what that means in Wins Above Replacement and what those players end up costing in free agency and that changes every year. They measure all the players signed in free agency and what their history has been and what they offer going forward and they place a value. The challenge in free agency is you’re often paying for that in the first year of a contract, and in the out years of a contract the players WAR usually goes down because he’s usually past his prime. So it becomes a less efficient contract over time. That’s why free agency is never the best way to build. It’s a good way to supplement but not build.


Really. So if you paid big money for Adam Dunn or Jason Werth or Carl Crawford or Barry Zito or whoever, the analysts can figure out what kind of first years he will have and then compute the wins he will add to your team totals in the year to follow. Can they also figure out how many wins your team is going to get the next year?

I am all in favor of statistical study but when these guys think it is a science, I worry. There is still a great deal of variance in players' abilities, year to year, to predict such things . Signing free agents is a gamble, as Shapiro does point out. Consider the successes of the Baltimore and Oakland franchises and the lack of success of high spenders Boston, NY and LA.
   3. SoSH U at work Posted: October 24, 2012 at 11:58 AM (#4281479)
Seems like the Indians use a replacement level close to average


Similarly, it seems like the average Indian used is close to replacement level.
   4. Walt Davis Posted: October 24, 2012 at 04:54 PM (#4281870)
Hmmm... the marginal investment in "analysts" when b-r is giving away 95% of that value for free.

Seems like the Indians use a replacement level close to average if they're getting $9M/win.

I was wondering about that. Or maybe they're only looking at "big money" FAs and not including (for example) RA Dickey lottery tickets.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
A triple short of the cycle
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogDon Mattingly thinks pace of play can be improved by changing views on strikeouts
(12 - 1:40am, Feb 24)
Last: QLE

NewsblogOT - December 2016 NBA thread
(2498 - 1:37am, Feb 24)
Last: maccoach57

NewsblogHeyman: Romneys, who bid on Marlins, in talks to buy piece of Yankees
(8 - 1:28am, Feb 24)
Last: Meatwad needs baseball

NewsblogPump The Brakes On Kyle Schwarber? Well, Actually...
(9 - 12:33am, Feb 24)
Last: 6 - 4 - 3

NewsblogOTP 20 Feb. 2017: Baseball in a Time of Politics
(1368 - 12:17am, Feb 24)
Last: Jay Z

NewsblogExclusive: Facebook in talks to live stream one MLB game per week - sources
(14 - 12:08am, Feb 24)
Last: Bote Man

NewsblogWhy Joe Maddon sees Kyle Schwarber as the leadoff guy in Cubs lineup | CSN Chicago
(6 - 11:29pm, Feb 23)
Last: zonk

NewsblogOT: January 2016 Soccer Thread
(268 - 11:27pm, Feb 23)
Last: Jose is El Absurd Pollo

NewsblogBaseball Reference has a New Look
(91 - 11:26pm, Feb 23)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogIn defense of Sammy Sosa
(3 - 11:25pm, Feb 23)
Last: zachtoma

NewsblogIs 300-wins club done adding members?
(128 - 11:09pm, Feb 23)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogMike Piazza Learns How to Be an Owner. Of a Soccer Team. In Italy.
(99 - 10:26pm, Feb 23)
Last: villainx

NewsblogThe Bizarre Ending to Pitching's Greatest Winning Streak
(3 - 9:04pm, Feb 23)
Last: AndrewJ

NewsblogThe End of “Stick to Sports”
(72 - 8:37pm, Feb 23)
Last: Betts, Bogaerts, and D Price(GGC)

NewsblogHow Buccaneers' Jameis Winston blew away Yankees prospects
(10 - 8:06pm, Feb 23)
Last: 6 - 4 - 3

Page rendered in 0.1418 seconds
47 querie(s) executed