Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

McManamon: A conversation with the Indians’ Mark Shapiro

Don’t have time to go through all of this (rifling through latest Bad//Dreems takes precedent!)...and it’s only Part 1.

A: It would change the amount of spent to 15 million dollars a year. What does that buy you in free agency? Very little. One and a half wins.

Q: How is that figure determined?

A: Our analysts can put a value on what it costs in free agency to sign a player and what that means in Wins Above Replacement and what those players end up costing in free agency and that changes every year. They measure all the players signed in free agency and what their history has been and what they offer going forward and they place a value. The challenge in free agency is you’re often paying for that in the first year of a contract, and in the out years of a contract the players WAR usually goes down because he’s usually past his prime. So it becomes a less efficient contract over time. That’s why free agency is never the best way to build. It’s a good way to supplement but not build.

Q: So $8 million for one win?

A: It’s $9 (million) now. It was $8 (million) two yeas ago. I think at the end of this year they figured out it was nine. And when those wins come in the win curve are important. What does that win mean if it’s the difference between 80 and 81? Very little. But if that win’s the difference between 89 and 90, that could be a meaningful win.

...Q: So at some point you all sit back and say this is what this player could mean in terms of wins.

A: Yeah. Either runs created or runs prevented. Ultimately you’re trying to impact those two areas of the team. The position player can impact both those areas, and sometimes the runs created gets looked at disproportionally to the runs prevented. And sometimes the sum of the guy’s value in offensive performance is undermined by some of his defensive value.

Repoz Posted: October 24, 2012 at 10:10 AM | 4 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: indians

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. SG Posted: October 24, 2012 at 11:32 AM (#4281458)
Seems like the Indians use a replacement level close to average if they're getting $9M/win.
   2. donlock Posted: October 24, 2012 at 11:37 AM (#4281464)
Our analysts can put a value on what it costs in free agency to sign a player and what that means in Wins Above Replacement and what those players end up costing in free agency and that changes every year. They measure all the players signed in free agency and what their history has been and what they offer going forward and they place a value. The challenge in free agency is you’re often paying for that in the first year of a contract, and in the out years of a contract the players WAR usually goes down because he’s usually past his prime. So it becomes a less efficient contract over time. That’s why free agency is never the best way to build. It’s a good way to supplement but not build.


Really. So if you paid big money for Adam Dunn or Jason Werth or Carl Crawford or Barry Zito or whoever, the analysts can figure out what kind of first years he will have and then compute the wins he will add to your team totals in the year to follow. Can they also figure out how many wins your team is going to get the next year?

I am all in favor of statistical study but when these guys think it is a science, I worry. There is still a great deal of variance in players' abilities, year to year, to predict such things . Signing free agents is a gamble, as Shapiro does point out. Consider the successes of the Baltimore and Oakland franchises and the lack of success of high spenders Boston, NY and LA.
   3. SoSH U at work Posted: October 24, 2012 at 11:58 AM (#4281479)
Seems like the Indians use a replacement level close to average


Similarly, it seems like the average Indian used is close to replacement level.
   4. Walt Davis Posted: October 24, 2012 at 04:54 PM (#4281870)
Hmmm... the marginal investment in "analysts" when b-r is giving away 95% of that value for free.

Seems like the Indians use a replacement level close to average if they're getting $9M/win.

I was wondering about that. Or maybe they're only looking at "big money" FAs and not including (for example) RA Dickey lottery tickets.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Ray (RDP)
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogA Discussion of WAR Wherein I Ardently Attempt to Avoid any WAR-Related Puns | Sports-Reference.com
(4 - 4:19pm, Nov 21)
Last: Rally

NewsblogSources: MLB hammers Atlanta Braves, declaring 12 minor league players free agents
(9 - 4:18pm, Nov 21)
Last: Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad)

NewsblogJoe Morgan Wants To Keep Steroid Cheats Out Of Baseball Hall Of Fame | MLB | NESN.com
(49 - 4:18pm, Nov 21)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogOTP 20 November 2017: Sheriff’s official suspended 10 days over Cubs World Series sneak-in
(330 - 4:15pm, Nov 21)
Last: Ray (RDP)

NewsblogJudge and Altuve | Articles | Bill James Online
(67 - 4:14pm, Nov 21)
Last: The Yankee Clapper

NewsblogThird time through the order isn’t a charm, and Mets are ready to deal with it | Newsday
(7 - 4:10pm, Nov 21)
Last: Buck Coats

Gonfalon CubsLooking to next year
(203 - 4:07pm, Nov 21)
Last: Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington

NewsblogJim Palmer on Mark Belanger and Omar Vizquel: The Hardball Times
(122 - 4:05pm, Nov 21)
Last: DanG

NewsblogBraves will lose prospects, and possibly a lot more, for violating international market rules
(55 - 4:04pm, Nov 21)
Last: The Yankee Clapper

NewsblogProspectus Feature: Bill James vs. The Noise - Baseball Prospectus
(8 - 4:00pm, Nov 21)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogOT - NBA 2017-2018 Tip-off Thread
(1484 - 3:55pm, Nov 21)
Last: Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington

NewsblogOT: Wrestling Thread November 2014
(2111 - 3:32pm, Nov 21)
Last: Tubbs is Bobby Grich when he flys off the handle

NewsblogMore on WAR – Joe Blogs – Medium
(207 - 3:13pm, Nov 21)
Last: Rally

Sox TherapyEnd of an Era
(7 - 2:52pm, Nov 21)
Last: jmurph

NewsblogTaking Back the Ballparks - Phillies Voting Thread
(7 - 2:25pm, Nov 21)
Last: Rusty Priske

Page rendered in 0.3019 seconds
47 querie(s) executed