Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

McNeal: Derek Jeter worthy of unprecedented Hall of Fame selection

A 16 point OPS+ jump at age 38. Interesting. Hey…hold a spot in that USA Pro Challenge cycling race!

When the time comes, this is the only reason that Derek Jeter will not be a unanimous selection to the Hall of Fame: Because no one ever has.

Hey, I didn’t say it was a good reason. If you can come up with a better one, let me know. Until then, I will believe Jeter deserves the vote of every voting member of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America, which totaled 573 (including myself) last year.

...At this pace, Jeter will have no trouble getting the 29 hits he needs to pass Willie Mays for 10th place by the end of the season. Looking to 2013, Jeter needs 176 hits to pass Honus Wagner for sixth on the list.

From there, only Tris Speaker, Stan Musial, Hank Aaron, Ty Cobb and No. 1 Pete Rose, with 4,256 hits, will rank ahead of him. If somehow Jeter managed to collect the 1,001 hits he needs to reach Rose—a long shot—it would be difficult for even the crustiest cynic to leave Jeter off their first ballot.

When you factor in how he has carried himself off the field as well as on it, Jeter doesn’t need to become the hits king to make history. He’s already deserving of being the first unanimous Hall of Famer.

Repoz Posted: August 21, 2012 at 05:02 AM | 133 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hof, yankees

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 2 of 2 pages  < 1 2
   101. . Posted: August 21, 2012 at 04:22 PM (#4214094)
Well, there's the little matter of 300 more games played. Could be 800 or more by the time Jeter retires.

Improved sports medicine.

90s, 00s, and 10s players shouldn't get the benefit of the huge leaps in training and medicine and the best way to control for that is to measure how well they played during the years traditionally considered an athlete's prime. This has the added benefit of focusing on how good a player really was, which should be our prime HOF criteria.

Dale Murphy's knees gave out; had he not played so many games on artificial turf and had he had the benefit of modern sports medicine, that likely wouldn't have happened. That has to be accounted for.
   102. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: August 21, 2012 at 04:30 PM (#4214101)
The Yankees have had generally good overall team defense for most of Jeter's career, yet generally have had (by most metrics) significantly below average fielding at both SS and CF.

The Yankees had awful defense in the 2002-2008 period.
   103. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: August 21, 2012 at 04:32 PM (#4214103)
and the best way to control for that is to measure how well they played during the years traditionally considered an athlete's prime.


And what would those years be? How about 24 to 33?

Jeter from ages 24-33 - 1504 games, 126 OPS+.

Trammell - 1385 games, 119 OPS+

12 more games per year and OPS+ 7 points higher for Jeter.

   104. Cowboy Popup Posted: August 21, 2012 at 04:33 PM (#4214105)
Memory is a funny thing, but I'd be stunned if you could produce a single thread where there is strong support for the idea of Jeter being an average SS.

What he could probably find, just on the edge of five years ago (around 2007) is a thread or two saying, "Hey Jeter's UZR for the past couple of years is average. That's pretty cool and it really helps him in MVP/which SS is better conversations." And given GuyM's ability to read and understand what people are saying, he probably interpreted that as "Man, isn't it awesome how Jeter has always been an average SS, he totally deserves a Gold Glove."

Is Fielder a terrible first baseman, I just thought he was below average, the standards are pretty low you have a few outstanding guys, a few average guys and the majority of the firstbaseman in baseball, most people would say were poor by the eyes, but the standards are so low that they are actually average.

That is a fair point. I think he looks terrible, but Fangraphs has him just a bit below average. I suspect Fielder suffers from the eyeball test because of how fat he is. But he certainly hasn't been good and a lot of playing SS involves running, which he is incapable of. He may well react quicker than Jeter, I think Larry showed way back when that even Giambi did at one point. But there is no way Fielder could cover the ground Jeter does because of his foot speed and I think it's fair to call the suggestion that he could silly.
   105. . Posted: August 21, 2012 at 04:34 PM (#4214109)
And what would those years be?

The years that modern medicine and training haven't added on to the back end of post 1995 (or so) players' careers. I like 22 to 33 with an adjustment up or down if you were or weren't good enough to play before/after 22.
   106. Cowboy Popup Posted: August 21, 2012 at 04:36 PM (#4214112)
The Yankees had awful defense in the 2002-2008 period.

That's still only 7 years of a 17 (or 18 if you want to count 95) year career. The bookends have been pretty good defense teams.
   107. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: August 21, 2012 at 04:36 PM (#4214113)
Jeter does not have a good arm for a SS, or at least doesn't have one now. He plays a fairly shallow SS, I suspect because of the arm - if he played at normal depth he'd never be able to throw out a lot of guys - which reduces his range by definition (and I think has also gotten him a mildly undeserved reputation for being good going back on popups, since he has to range further for most of them).
I disagree with this. I think Jeter's arm is, arguably, his greatest strength as a defender. The jump throw, for example, while an example of some of Jeter's failings as a shortstop, is all about arm strength. The Fan Scouting Report consistently lists Jeter's arm strength as above average.

Also, I'm not taking shots at anyone here, but this thread illustrates the dangers of amateur scouting. #99 says that Jeter "plays a fairly shallow SS" whereas #74 says he "plays as deep as he possibly can." Neither of those posters are Yankee fans, and it seems like perhaps people are guilty of making sweeping conclusions from limited experience.

EDIT: And of course, they can't both be right.
   108. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: August 21, 2012 at 04:37 PM (#4214115)
I like 22 to 33 with an adjustment up or down if you were or weren't good enough to play before/after 22.


Jeter 22 to 33 - 1820 G 122 OPS+ 264/70 SB/CS
Trammell - 1636 G 117 OPS+ 190/83 SB/CS
   109. . Posted: August 21, 2012 at 04:44 PM (#4214131)
Right, a 5 point OPS+ difference swallowed up or more by the defensive differences.

Is that supposed to be overwhelming or something? I'm not following.

   110. . Posted: August 21, 2012 at 04:49 PM (#4214137)
Not that this was ever Trammell vs. Jeter, but Trammell had six years with an OPS+ of 130 or better, Jeter has two. Trammell's top OPS+ year was 155, Jeter's 153.

   111. Cowboy Popup Posted: August 21, 2012 at 04:51 PM (#4214138)
Right, a 5 point OPS+ difference swallowed up or more by the defensive differences.

Not that I think Jeter is a clearly better ballplayer than Trammel, but it's more significant than that given that Jeter was better at getting on base. RC+ has the difference as 124 to 111 for their careers.

FWar has Jeter at 77 and Trammel at 69. That's using UZR as the defensive part of the metric for 2003-2012. Switch it to DRS and Jeter is at ~69-70 and counting. I think it is ridiculous Trammel isn't in the HOF.
   112. The Yankee Clapper Posted: August 21, 2012 at 04:51 PM (#4214139)
What we really need is an inner-circle Hall, with a different voting structure, and then this silly stuff about whether Seaver or Aaron or whoever got a higher vote % would be irrelevant.

That seems to assume that a lot of people use % of the HoF vote to rank 1st ballot Hall of Famers, which I don't think is the case once you get to the folks in the 90%+ range. Most careful observers are aware that who else is on the ballot affects the vote, and casual observers just know who was elected.
   113. Big fan Posted: August 21, 2012 at 04:56 PM (#4214145)
Are intelligent fans still using OPS (or OPS+) to compare two players? I mean it is a nice 'quickie' number and all that, but you must realize that it is equating On Base and Slugging when is seems clear that the former has more value.
   114. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: August 21, 2012 at 04:59 PM (#4214153)

That seems to assume that a lot of people use % of the HoF vote to rank 1st ballot Hall of Famers, which I don't think is the case once you get to the folks in the 90%+ range. Most careful observers are aware that who else is on the ballot affects the vote, and casual observers just know who was elected.


I think the best answer is to no longer report the exact vote % for electees. Just report 80-84%, 85-89%, 90-94%, and 95%+.

That way no one will ever be the "first unanimous HoFer", and people can just vote on the merits, and not worry about 1st year status.
   115. The Yankee Clapper Posted: August 21, 2012 at 05:01 PM (#4214157)
I just want it known that in a thread about clean cut American boy Mr Jeter, I have two ads on this page about latin women and asian brides. WTF!?


They have been here for some time now, so I assume there must be enough BBTF-generated business to make it profitable. Probably mostly the Jeter-haters with small dicks.
   116. Cowboy Popup Posted: August 21, 2012 at 05:22 PM (#4214186)
Are intelligent fans still using OPS (or OPS+) to compare two players? I mean it is a nice 'quickie' number and all that, but you must realize that it is equating On Base and Slugging when is seems clear that the former has more value.

Well, BBRef makes it so darn convenient to use OPS+ for multiple seasons, while you have to do the math to get, say Jeter's RC+ from 1998 to 2006.
   117. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: August 21, 2012 at 05:29 PM (#4214193)
Right, a 5 point OPS+ difference swallowed up or more by the defensive differences.


And 15 more games per year, every year, for 12 years. And far superior baserunning.
   118. Cooper Teenoh Posted: August 21, 2012 at 05:37 PM (#4214202)
I just realized something about Pete Rose: he was incredibly durable. For a players first 18 seasons, Derek Jeter now has the second most PAs of all time - and he's 1,228 behind Rose. Rose is 1,032 ABs ahead of Hank Aaron for that time frame (Jeter will be #2 by year's end), and 115 games ahead of Aaron and Yaz (Jeter is 286 games behind through yesterday). A quick look suggests that Rose missed about 89 games in his first 18 years. Stunning.
   119. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 21, 2012 at 05:51 PM (#4214210)
Rose was very durable. However, his first year was a full season, so ~640 of the PA difference come out of the first season.
   120. rconn23 Posted: August 21, 2012 at 06:04 PM (#4214230)
I think this thread proves once and for all that people on this thread really HATE Derek Jeter. And not sports hate either. I mean, Jesus.

All the uproar over the praise and bloviation directed his way by media is usurped by the hatred directed at him on this site.

Has any great player - and Jeter is great, by the way - ever had as much anger directed toward him as the type that Jeter receives.

He's certainly not the first great player whose ability with the bat has caused the media, fanboys, etc, to extoll their virtues with the glove, when that reputation wasn't deserved.

   121. . Posted: August 21, 2012 at 06:06 PM (#4214234)
And 15 more games per year, every year, for 12 years.

See Strike, 1981 Baseball Players'.
   122. Monty Posted: August 21, 2012 at 06:27 PM (#4214247)
Has any great player - and Jeter is great, by the way - ever had as much anger directed toward him as the type that Jeter receives.


Barry Bonds?
   123. Walt Davis Posted: August 21, 2012 at 06:46 PM (#4214259)
you must realize that it is equating On Base and Slugging when is seems clear that the former has more value.

For OPS, yes, but OPS+ puts greater weight on OBP, depending on the ratio of mean SLG to mean OBP. That tends to be in the 1.2 to 1.3 range (i.e. 1 point of OBP gets you as much OPS+ as 1.3 points of SLG). That's not as much weight as more advanced metrics give to OBP but they're not equal. Also, although it's been years since I looked at this and I did it for only a few seasons, the standardized effects of the two were pretty close to equal -- i.e. a standard deviation of OBP and a standard deviation of SLG (at the team level) had about the same effect on run scoring. It wouldn't surprise me if OBP and ISO had about equal raw effects.
   124. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: August 21, 2012 at 07:07 PM (#4214269)
And 15 more games per year, every year, for 12 years.

See Strike, 1981 Baseball Players'.


OK, give Tram another 50 games. 11 more per year for Jeter. And since 1981 was one of his worst hitting years during that stretch, dock him another point of OPS+.
   125. Endless Trash Posted: August 21, 2012 at 07:11 PM (#4214272)
I called this a decade ago. I think it was my first post on primer.
   126. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: August 21, 2012 at 07:47 PM (#4214302)
I think this thread proves once and for all that people on this thread really HATE Derek Jeter. And not sports hate either. I mean, Jesus.


WTF are you talking about?

This thread? This one?
   127. The Yankee Clapper Posted: August 21, 2012 at 08:16 PM (#4214321)
Another Jeter HR to lead off tonight's game.
   128. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: August 21, 2012 at 08:30 PM (#4214327)
Has any great player - and Jeter is great, by the way - ever had as much anger directed toward him as the type that Jeter receives.


Chris Truby.
   129. Mefisto Posted: August 21, 2012 at 08:50 PM (#4214335)
There has never been a player as evil as Steve Garvey.
   130. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: August 21, 2012 at 08:55 PM (#4214339)
Can we just dispense with the formality of an election and put Jeter in the Hall now by acclamation? If there's any player past or present who deserves this singular honor, it's Captain Fistpump.
   131. Lassus Posted: August 21, 2012 at 09:14 PM (#4214348)
EDIT: And of course, they can't both be right.

Silly man. With Jeter, of course they can. His movement along the y-axis is unknowable to our minor perceptions.
   132. Lassus Posted: August 21, 2012 at 09:15 PM (#4214349)

(Unfortunately, the same appears to be true of the x-axis.)
   133. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 21, 2012 at 09:21 PM (#4214355)
WTF are you talking about?

This thread? This one?


Agreed, it was demonstrated long ago. But I think the fact that the guy wouldn't stay dead has gotten to some folks.
Page 2 of 2 pages  < 1 2

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Francis
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOT: Soccer Thread (The Berhalter Thread?)
(121 - 4:21pm, Dec 11)
Last: Count Vorror Rairol Mencoon (CoB)

NewsblogJayson Stark wins Baseball Hall of Fame's Spink Award
(16 - 4:20pm, Dec 11)
Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1949 Discussion
(4 - 4:18pm, Dec 11)
Last: DL from MN

Gonfalon CubsNow what?
(335 - 4:18pm, Dec 11)
Last: Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington

NewsblogSmith, Baines elected to Baseball Hall of Fame
(517 - 4:17pm, Dec 11)
Last: Benji Gil Gamesh VII - The Opt-Out Awakens

NewsblogWhite Sox acquire Ivan Nova from Pirates to strengthen starting pitching depth
(3 - 4:12pm, Dec 11)
Last: Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad)

NewsblogOT - NBA Thread (2018-19 season kickoff edition)
(3532 - 4:11pm, Dec 11)
Last: Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington

NewsblogThibs' Hall of Fame Tracker
(415 - 4:06pm, Dec 11)
Last: The Yankee Clapper

NewsblogPros and Cons: Should the Mets trade for Yasiel Puig?
(7 - 4:01pm, Dec 11)
Last: formerly dp

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 12-11-2018
(10 - 3:52pm, Dec 11)
Last: Der-K: at 10% emotional investment

Newsblog2019 ZiPS Projections – Boston Red Sox | FanGraphs Baseball
(2 - 3:44pm, Dec 11)
Last: Der-K: at 10% emotional investment

Hall of MeritMock 2019 Today’s Game Hall of Fame Election Results
(4 - 3:34pm, Dec 11)
Last: Bourbon Samurai, what price fettucine?

NewsblogCan the Red Sox Survive Without Craig Kimbrel? They Seem to Think So
(6 - 3:27pm, Dec 11)
Last: Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature

NewsblogMets, Yankees, Marlins In Talks On Three-Team Deal - MLB Trade Rumors
(43 - 3:12pm, Dec 11)
Last: Swoboda is freedom

NewsblogArizona Diamondbacks hunt for value, not trades at MLB winter meetings
(10 - 3:10pm, Dec 11)
Last: Walt Davis

Page rendered in 0.3515 seconds
46 querie(s) executed