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Monday, May 14, 2012

Megdal: Benitez, Francisco and Race

Hey…some of my best friends happen to be Al Martino lovers!

So Andy Martino, over at the New York Daily News, asked this question on Twitter:

“Why do people compare Francisco to Benitez? There have been many bad closers in the intervening years.”

His implication seemed clear, particularly from the writer who once wrote a piece speculating that Mets fans, who adored Jose Reyes and Pedro Martinez, were sour on Luis Castillo because of race, rather than because of his poor play on the field or that dropped pop up against the Yankees.Notice also that despite a general dislike of Francisco Rodriguez within the fan base, no one is comparing Francisco to Rodriguez, despite the two of the being of Latin descent.

...Like I said at the top, looking at the role race plays in the perception of athletes is worth doing. Throwing assertions and insinuations about it out there, when there are clearly more obvious reasons for fan reaction, diminishes the careful look at an important aspect of analysis and makes the case harder to present when racial motivations really are present. I think Martino does a disservice to such examinations by saying this on Twitter, just as I believe he did with his Castillo piece.

Repoz Posted: May 14, 2012 at 01:14 PM | 45 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mets

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   1. JJ1986 Posted: May 14, 2012 at 01:34 PM (#4131124)
This is third-hand information by this point. It's really hard to tell if it's a race thing without seeing the actual comparisons made by fans.
   2. Lassus Posted: May 14, 2012 at 01:45 PM (#4131134)
I would never have thought to compare Francisco to Bentitez.
   3. thetailor Posted: May 14, 2012 at 01:49 PM (#4131136)
I wish Francisco was like Benitez. I wish all the Mets relievers were like Benitez, of the Mets career 2.70 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 11.8 K/9.
   4. bobm Posted: May 14, 2012 at 02:36 PM (#4131158)
So Andy Martino, over at the New York Daily News, asked this question on Twitter:

“Why do people compare Francisco to Benitez? There have been many bad closers in the intervening years.”


This is obviously the kind of thing reporters need clubhouse access to hear. :)
   5. formerly dp Posted: May 14, 2012 at 02:49 PM (#4131165)
I wish all the Mets relievers were like Benitez, of the Mets career 2.70 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 11.8 K/9.

Yeah, Benitez got a bad rap, in spite of being a good pitcher. Francisco just sucks. Met fans aren't known for their ability to distinguish between the two...

I'd also like to add that the Mets are playing really well, in spite of a terrible closer, and this past week, they've been without 1/3 of their starting lineup. They won't hit this well with runners in scoring position and 2 outs all year, so the offense looks due for a drop-off, but so far, they have been way more awesome than anyone could have anticipated.

Just looked it up-- they're at .288/.388/.425 with RISP and 2 outs, compared to a .238/.346/.384 line for the majors. 64 runs scored and 60 driven in are tops in the majors in those situations. A high team OB% and low team SLG has to help some, but it also seems like they've had a lot of lucky hits early.

Between yesterday and Friday, those were two of the season's toughest loses.
   6. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 14, 2012 at 04:10 PM (#4131228)

I'm enjoying the team so far, but the 15-19 Pythagorean record doesn't bode terribly well. Still, enjoy it while it lasts.
   7. Ravecc Posted: May 14, 2012 at 04:23 PM (#4131239)
For 2 years now, Sandy has poured all of the Mets free-agent pennies into the bullpen and he’s just not having any luck. Carrasco, Rauch and Francisco have all sucked to varying degrees. They also need a 2nd lefty badly or TC would kill Byrdak by July.

The starting rotation should be OK once Chris Young joins them. Also, the Mets have a $5m option on Dickey for 2013. RA’s the gift that keeps on giving. So they’d have : Santana, Dickey, Niese and Gee, with Mejia, Harvey and Familia knocking on the door. I’d still get another starter, since I don’t want a repeat of the Pelfrey/Schwinden/Batista debacle.
   8. Lassus Posted: May 14, 2012 at 04:31 PM (#4131244)
Carrasco, Rauch and Francisco have all sucked to varying degrees.

Rauch has sucked? ERA under 3.00, WHIP under 1.00? I hate his neck tattoo, but a judgment of suck seems rather unfair, even with the "varying degrees" caveat.
   9. thetailor Posted: May 14, 2012 at 04:44 PM (#4131254)
I mean, Rauch has pitched ten innings so far -- he hasn't really done enough for us to judge on. But the point about Alderson's bullpen signings is absolutely spot-on.
   10. formerly dp Posted: May 14, 2012 at 06:24 PM (#4131347)
I mean, Rauch has pitched ten innings so far -- he hasn't really done enough for us to judge on. But the point about Alderson's bullpen signings is absolutely spot-on.

If you were Alderson, and you had $20 M to spend in the offseason, and couldn't commit long-term to anyone, where would you have spent it? That's not a rhetorical question in defense of Alderson, but other than grabbing a backup C better than Nickeas, I don't really see anywhere else on the roster that money could have made a difference. The lineup and rotation were pretty well set once they acquired Torres. I guess you can quibble with his choice of relievers, but the decision to spend on the bullpen, especially after last year, seems like a good one given the context. Sending Francisco and Bay on a drunken hunting trip together would probably be a good move for the club long-term, but only one of those guys is making enough to actually hamstring the team's decision-making in 2013 (perhaps longer, if Bay's option vests).

Young to the rotation will be fun for a week, but I'm hoping we see Mejia there by July, rather than in the bullpen. The Mike Pelfrey Experience was shaping up to be an interesting ride-- at least he went out on a positive note.
   11. formerly dp Posted: May 14, 2012 at 06:29 PM (#4131351)
but the 15-19 Pythagorean record doesn't bode terribly well.

This team is too young to tell how they're going to shape up. Ike was starting to heat up before the flu, Tejada and Thole were both hitting well before their injuries, and even Bay showed a faint pulse before he got hurt. Murphy hasn't been driving the ball, but he's also been miscast as a #5 hitter with Ike struggling and Bay out. 7 of their 8 regulars being homegrown is something I can't remember the team having in my lifetime.

Still, enjoy it while it lasts.

That was my motto in 2011.
   12. AJM Posted: May 14, 2012 at 07:29 PM (#4131381)
Can we send Francisco and Acosta to some remote island? I would be much happier if I never see them again.
   13. Why Bloody Valdespin? Posted: May 14, 2012 at 09:11 PM (#4131462)
As horrible as Francisco has been, I think he'll be fine. He's been a consistently above average reliever over the past 5 years and his stuff looks fine so far this year. I don't really like watching him throw tantrums, and it'd be nice if we could have an elite reliever, but I still think he's probably the best arm in the pen.
   14. pyrite Posted: May 15, 2012 at 12:08 AM (#4131612)
From '99 to '02 -- Benitez's full seasons with the Mets -- he was, by both WPA and shutdowns, the best reliever in baseball. That's a pretty sharp contrast to the image most Mets fans have of him as a big choker. He also led in K/9, but that's less of a surprise.

His postseason WPA with the Mets was slightly negative, but I never got the sense that the animus from Mets fans came entirely from Game 6 in Atlanta in '99.
   15. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 15, 2012 at 01:33 AM (#4131618)

Benitez was a great pitcher during most of his time with the Mets. Until Game 6 against Atlanta, he had some crazy streak going of consecutive Braves hitters retired, or consecutive scoreless innings against the Braves (and Rocker had something comparable against the Mets). He was unfairly criticized, although I think the same is true of every Mets closer since Jesse Orosco. John Franco was knocked for always making things interesting before Benitez arrived, and then people were suddenly pining for Franco again. Benitez didn't necessarily help his cause -- I remember him going on the DL with gout, of all things.
   16. PreservedFish Posted: May 15, 2012 at 02:18 AM (#4131622)
Let us not forget that Benitez arrived on the Mets with a choker reputation. He was terrible in the postseason with the Orioles.

Still, enjoy it while it lasts.

It's been fun watching a team that actually gets clutch hits. There was a handful of years in a row where the Mets' numbers reliably cratered in all of those clutch situation splits.
   17. PreservedFish Posted: May 15, 2012 at 02:19 AM (#4131623)
John Franco was knocked for always making things interesting before Benitez arrived

I've learned that virtually every single closer has this reputation. Not Rivera.
   18. Jolly Old St. Nick Done Jumped The Ship Posted: May 15, 2012 at 07:09 AM (#4131639)
Let us not forget that Benitez arrived on the Mets with a choker reputation. He was terrible in the postseason with the Orioles.

For anyone who thinks that numbers tell you everything you need to know about a player, here's the the Benitez that Orioles fans came to loathe. The topper was the way he kept looking after every pitch at the speed gun number posted above the grandstand, and had the look of visible annoyance if it didn't register 100. He was a real piece of work.

The telephone kept ringing, but there was no way Baltimore Orioles righthander Armando Benitez was going to answer it. The message light was a furious red quasar that could go on blinking forever for all he cared—even if the most insistent callers were his mother and Carlos Bernhardt, the Orioles coach who had discovered Benitez when he was 14. A trip for a bite to eat, even a stroll to the lobby, was out of the question. This was how the most notorious pitcher in all of baseball would attempt to deal with the consequences of one sorry, stupid pitch—by sequestering himself in his 15th-floor room of the New York Grand Hyatt. Solitary confinement with 24-hour room service.

Well into his second day of isolation, Benitez finally opened his door last Thursday. During a visit with Bernhardt, he broke down and cried. Then Benitez met with his agent, Mike Powers; his financial consultant, Joseph Geier; Baltimore general manager Pat Gillick; and assistant general manager Kevin Malone. The men arranged themselves in Benitez's room like five dots on a die, with the disgraced reliever at the center, sitting on the edge of his bed with his head in his hands.

"He just wanted to crawl into a hole and disappear," Malone says. "He didn't want to see anybody, and he didn't want to talk to anybody. He was very sad."

And this was the man who the Orioles thought was ready to nail down the toughest outs for the team with the highest payroll in baseball. "A young, immature kid," Orioles manager Ray Miller called him. Hardly the most desirable quality in a closer.

Benitez treats Camden Yards as if it were the county fair, straining to reach triple digits on the scoreboard radar readings with the machismo of a teenager trying to win a Kewpie doll for his date. He calls his mother in San Pedro de Macoris, Dominican Republic, virtually every night—sometimes as late as 1 a.m.—and they talk for as long as two hours. He is 25 years old. "Twenty-five," says one of his teammates, "going on 15."

Benitez never seemed so immature as on the night of May 19 at Yankee Stadium. In the opener of a three-game series with the first-place Yankees. Miller gave him the ball in the eighth inning to close out a win the slumping Orioles desperately needed. With a 5-4 lead, two outs and two runners on base, Benitez threw a terrible slider to Bernie Williams, as awful as the ones that the Cleveland Indians' Marquis Grissom and Tony Fernandez had hit off Benitez for game-winning home runs in the American League Championship Series last year. The pitch to Williams arrived lazily on a flat plane on the inside half of the plate. Williams blasted it into the upper deck, the seventh home run off Benitez in 23 innings dating from the postseason.

Uh-oh, Baltimore coach Sam Perlozzo thought. I hope he doesn't hit the next guy.

First baseman Rafael Palmeiro thought about walking to the mound to calm Benitez. To his regret, he didn't.

Pitching coach Mike Flanagan figured that Benitez was fine, that he'd learned a lesson three years ago when a grand slam by the Seattle Mariners' Edgar Martinez provoked him to hit the next batter, Tino Martinez, on the shoulder with a pitch, causing both benches to empty. After that game Benitez cleaned out his locker and threatened to run home to the Dominican Republic. The Orioles sent him to the minors instead....


   19. Gonna break my Rusty Kuntz and run . . . Arbitol Posted: May 15, 2012 at 07:58 AM (#4131655)
It was't just Game 6 in '99 - it was a lot of key games. 2000 WS, stretch drive vs. Atlanta in 2001 come to mind. There's more.
   20. Ravecc Posted: May 15, 2012 at 10:32 AM (#4131738)
Rauch has sucked? ERA under 3.00, WHIP under 1.00? I hate his neck tattoo, but a judgment of suck seems rather unfair, even with the "varying degrees" caveat.


Fine, Rauch hasn’t sucked. Yet.

Kidding. Frankie Frank has been bad enough Rauch will probably close by June.
   21. Ravecc Posted: May 15, 2012 at 10:39 AM (#4131744)
If you were Alderson, and you had $20 M to spend in the offseason, and couldn't commit long-term to anyone, where would you have spent it?


1. Bullpen*
2. Starting pitcher/s (not paying Pelfrey $6m would have been nice)
3. Backup catcher
4. Not Hairston

*I’d also have listened more to DePodesta rather than recruiting half the Jays 2011 bullpen. I half expect them to trade for Dotel. What’s Wil Ledezma up to these days?

(How in GGE did Batista manage to get 7 shutout innings against the Brewers? Baseball is funny.)
   22. PreservedFish Posted: May 15, 2012 at 10:55 AM (#4131759)
It was't just Game 6 in '99 - it was a lot of key games. 2000 WS, stretch drive vs. Atlanta in 2001 come to mind. There's more.


I was looking through Benitez's gamelogs last night, planning to make the same comment. I really didn't find anything else notable. He was fabulous. The thing you can say about him is that while his bad outings were exceedingly rare, they tended to be in big games.
   23. formerly dp Posted: May 15, 2012 at 11:07 AM (#4131779)
1. Bullpen*
2. Starting pitcher/s (not paying Pelfrey $6m would have been nice)
3. Backup catcher
4. Not Hairston


That's probably about my list too (minus Hairston, I just don't think he's that bad for $1 M or whatever he's making)-- I don't think there was too much serious consideration of non-tendering Pelf until his spring training string of disaster starts. I guess my point is the Mets spent precisely where they needed to-- you can quibble with the choices, but I don't think they were about to go in on any of the "name" closers who switched zip codes, as they needed to spread the money around a little and fill more than just the closer spot.

Not sure which starter they would have spent the Pelfrey money on. But a 5th starter of Batista/Young/Mejia will be adequate for 2012, and certainly not the worst in the division.

The Mets have had a few WTF performances this season, Batista probably tops them all so far, though Vadelspin's HR is close. Mike Baxter wins my WTF award for the season so far, but it's early. Nickeas is a close second for overachieving with a 74 OPS+ so far.
   24. Ravecc Posted: May 15, 2012 at 11:53 AM (#4131814)
Oh there was plenty of discussion for non-tendering Pelfrey even last year. The main argument for keeping him – durability – is what ultimately felled him. Sigh.

I just found it astounding that TPTB did not bolster the rotation at all, when they really had no idea what they’d get from Santana. Batista/Young/Mejia is far from adequate – one’s a 41 yo who walks the world, the other 2 are coming off significant injuries.

==

Here’s an idea: when Bay comes back, move Nuwie to RF, Duda to 1st, and Davis to Buffalo. Ike just looks lost.
   25. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: May 15, 2012 at 12:01 PM (#4131822)
The thing you can say about him is that while his bad outings were exceedingly rare, they tended to be in big games.
Which is pretty much the recipe for a closer with good numbers to become someone fans hate. He also came to town, as noted by Andy, with the reputation as a hot-heated choker. That's hard to shake.
   26. PreservedFish Posted: May 15, 2012 at 12:04 PM (#4131830)
I just found it astounding that TPTB did not bolster the rotation at all, when they really had no idea what they’d get from Santana. Batista/Young/Mejia is far from adequate – one’s a 41 yo who walks the world, the other 2 are coming off significant injuries.


I was thinking about this, but doing into the season you have 5 starters (Dickey/Santana/Niese/Pelfrey/Gee), so how much are you willing to pay for a 6th or 7th guy? I think they should have brought in a few more candidates, but they were never going to get more veterans that weren't of the approximate ability and cost of Batista/Young. You also had the chance that either Harvey or Familia would bust his way onto the scene pretty quick.

The Mets in this offseason were in the unusual position of having an extremely stable list of average to below-average starters (both pitchers and hitters). You'd look at guys like Duda, Murphy, Thole, Tejada, Gee, Pelfrey, and all of them are good enough that you didn't feel compelled to bring in a replacement. The Mets didn't really have a lot of holes to plug, which is curious for a mediocre team.
   27. BDC Posted: May 15, 2012 at 12:08 PM (#4131835)
Not Hairston

Do the Hairston brothers know where all the bodies are buried? It would be hard to think of two journeymen who would be more interchangeable with random minor-leaguers, yet they always seem to be on one major-league roster or another.
   28. formerly dp Posted: May 15, 2012 at 12:14 PM (#4131842)
Oh there was plenty of discussion for non-tendering Pelfrey even last year. The main argument for keeping him – durability – is what ultimately felled him. Sigh.

On this board, yeah. I don't remember much of a conversation at the front office level until the end of spring. But I might have missed some stories.

I just found it astounding that TPTB did not bolster the rotation at all, when they really had no idea what they’d get from Santana. Batista/Young/Mejia is far from adequate – one’s a 41 yo who walks the world, the other 2 are coming off significant injuries.

I was going to respond to this, but I don't have anything to add beyond what Preserved said in #26, which is just an excellent summary of the situation.

Here’s an idea: when Bay comes back, move Nuwie to RF, Duda to 1st, and Davis to Buffalo. Ike just looks lost.

I'd give him until the end of May, which is about when Bay will likely be back anyway. It's hard to tell with Ike if it's lingering effects of VF slowing his reflexes a little, or if he just straight-up needs more time. He was starting to come around until the flu hit. He has been working deep counts, like the rest of the team, but then failing to execute.
   29. Jolly Old St. Nick Done Jumped The Ship Posted: May 15, 2012 at 12:16 PM (#4131847)
The thing you can say about him is that while his bad outings were exceedingly rare, they tended to be in big games.


Which is pretty much the recipe for a closer with good numbers to become someone fans hate. He also came to town, as noted by Andy, with the reputation as a hot-heated choker. That's hard to shake.

He also wasn't all that great in the postseason, where he averaged giving up a run every 2 to 3 innings. That's not exactly your Ace Closer territory.

   30. PreservedFish Posted: May 15, 2012 at 12:17 PM (#4131849)
I don't mind Hairston. Why isn't he a reasonable bench player?
   31. Conor Posted: May 15, 2012 at 12:17 PM (#4131850)
I was thinking about this, but doing into the season you have 5 starters (Dickey/Santana/Niese/Pelfrey/Gee), so how much are you willing to pay for a 6th or 7th guy? I think they should have brought in a few more candidates, but they were never going to get more veterans that weren't of the approximate ability and cost of Batista/Young. You also had the chance that either Harvey or Familia would bust his way onto the scene pretty quick.

The Mets in this offseason were in the unusual position of having an extremely stable list of average to below-average starters (both pitchers and hitters). You'd look at guys like Duda, Murphy, Thole, Tejada, Gee, Pelfrey, and all of them are good enough that you didn't feel compelled to bring in a replacement. The Mets didn't really have a lot of holes to plug, which is curious for a mediocre team.


I agree with this; they have been able to churn out a lot of reasonably okish players in the last few years. Davis, Murphy, Tejada, Thole, Niuwenhuis, Duda; that's basically 5 or 6 every day players and as far as I can tell, Murphy is the most expensive at just over $500,000. Prior to this year, I would've said Davis was the only one who had something close to star potential, and he's been the worst of the bunch, by far.

And on the pitching side; Pelfrey was promoted a while ago, but you still had Niese and Gee, plus Dickey is obviously not a prospect but they basically got him off the scrap heap. I think they could've added another pitcher; Gee last year was just ok; they could've sent him to the pen or to AAA if they had ended up signing another starter. Of course in hindsight he seems to have taken a step forward this year, but teams usually wind up with openings in the starting rotation anyway.

I wonder what happened to Murph's plate discipline; remember when he came up in 2008 and was the guy working great AB's all the time? He had walks in 11.9% of his PA then; in 2009 he was down to 6.8%, 2011 it was 5.7, and he's at 6.6% this year. He has also cut his strikeouts significantly; it's almost like he feels since he is playing second base now he doesn't have to hit for power anymore or something.

I also don't have a problem with Hairston. He strikes out a lot, but he has some power, is reasonable (to my eye) in the OF corners, and can hurt left handed pitching. Particularly for a team with as much left handed hitting as the Mets, he is a good fit.

And I'm sure it's not even worth mentioning, but Val Pascucci is hitting 285/367/508 in AAA.
   32. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: May 15, 2012 at 12:26 PM (#4131864)
Notice also that despite a general dislike of Francisco Rodriguez within the fan base, no one is comparing Francisco to Rodriguez, despite the two of the being of Latin descent.

The Mets fans in front of me last night were chanting "Gay-Rod" at Francisco after he allowed a run to score.
   33. bobm Posted: May 15, 2012 at 12:38 PM (#4131878)
Post-season appearances by Benitez, sorted by WPA

Rk.        Date Series Gm#  Tm Opp    Rslt  AppDec  IP H R ER BB SO HR IR IS BF    WPA   aLI
1    1997-10-09   ALCS   2 BAL CLE  L  4-5 8-8  BL 1.0 1 3  3  2  3  1  0  0  6 -0.540 1.497
2    2000-10-05   NLDS   2 NYM SFG  W  5-4 9-10 BW 1.0 3 2  2  0  0  1  1  1  6 -0.536 2.482
3    1997-10-12   ALCS   4 BAL CLE  L  7-8    9-9f 0.0 1 0  0  1  0  0  1  1  2 -0.386 4.180
4    1999-10-09   NLDS   4 NYM ARI  W  4-3 8-9  BS 1.1 2 0  0  1  2  0  2  2  6 -0.290 2.142
5    1997-10-15   ALCS   6 BAL CLE  L  0-1 11-11fL 1.0 1 1  1  0  2  1  0  0  4 -0.287 1.492
6    2000-10-21     WS   1 NYM NYY  L  3-4 9-9  BS 1.0 2 1  1  1  1  0  0  0  6 -0.269 5.270
7    1996-10-09   ALCS   1 BAL NYY  L  4-5 7-8  BS 1.0 2 1  1  2  2  1  3  1  7 -0.233 3.143
8    1996-10-12   ALCS   4 BAL NYY  L  4-8     8-8 0.2 1 1  1  1  0  1  2  2  4 -0.149  .780
9    1996-10-04   ALDS   3 BAL CLE  L  4-9     7-7 1.0 1 1  1  0  1  1  3  3  4 -0.138  .628
10   1999-10-19   NLCS   6 NYM ATL L  9-10    9-10 2.0 2 1  1  2  2  0  0  0  9 -0.134 3.530
11   1997-10-11   ALCS   3 BAL CLE  L  1-2     8-9 1.0 0 0  0  1  1  0  0  0  4 -0.036  .927
12   1997-10-01   ALDS   1 BAL SEA  W  9-3    9-9f 1.0 1 1  1  1  2  1  0  0  5  0.001  .022
13   2000-10-11   NLCS   1 NYM STL  W  6-2    9-9f 1.0 2 2  0  0  0  0  0  0  6  0.004  .135
14   2000-10-15   NLCS   4 NYM STL  W 10-6    9-9f 1.0 1 0  0  1  1  0  0  0  5  0.016  .886
15   1999-10-05   NLDS   1 NYM ARI  W  8-4    9-9f 1.0 0 0  0  0  0  0  0  0  3  0.022  .270
16   1999-10-13   NLCS   2 NYM ATL  L  3-4    8-8f 1.0 0 0  0  0  2  0  0  0  3  0.035  .450
17   2000-10-25     WS   4 NYM NYY  L  2-3    9-9f 1.0 0 0  0  1  0  0  0  0  5  0.042 1.122
18   1997-10-02   ALDS   2 BAL SEA  W  9-3  7-8  H 1.0 2 0  0  0  1  0  1  0  5  0.043  .364
19   2000-10-24     WS   3 NYM NYY  W  4-2  9-9f S 1.0 1 0  0  0  1  0  0  0  4  0.079 1.848
20   1997-10-05   ALDS   4 BAL SEA  W  3-1  8-8  H 1.0 0 0  0  1  1  0  0  0  4  0.079 1.907
21   1996-10-02   ALDS   2 BAL CLE  W  7-4 8-8  BW 1.0 0 0  0  1  1  0  2  1  4  0.098 3.815
22   1999-10-15   NLCS   3 NYM ATL  L  0-1    8-9f 1.2 0 0  0  0  3  0  1  0  5  0.121  .866
23   1999-10-17   NLCS   5 NYM ATL  W  4-3   10-10 1.0 1 0  0  0  1  0  0  0  4  0.146 2.988
24   1999-10-16   NLCS   4 NYM ATL  W  3-2  9-9f S 1.0 0 0  0  0  1  0  0  0  3  0.172 2.197
25   2000-10-12   NLCS   2 NYM STL  W  6-5  9-9f S 1.0 0 0  0  1  1  0  0  0  4  0.224 3.045
Rk         Date Series Gm#  Tm Opp    Rslt  AppDec  IP H R ER BB SO HR IR IS BF    WPA   aLI
26   1996-10-10   ALCS   2 BAL NYY  W  5-3  9-9f S 0.2 0 0  0  0  0  0  2  0  2  0.224 4.365
27   2000-10-07   NLDS   3 NYM SFG  W  3-2   10-11 2.0 1 0  0  1  3  0  0  0  8  0.290 3.030
28   1996-10-05   ALDS   4 BAL CLE  W  4-3 10-11 W 2.0 0 0  0  1  4  0  0  0  7  0.313 2.442
   34. formerly dp Posted: May 15, 2012 at 12:41 PM (#4131880)
I wonder what happened to Murph's plate discipline; remember when he came up in 2008 and was the guy working great AB's all the time? He had walks in 11.9% of his PA then; in 2009 he was down to 6.8%, 2011 it was 5.7, and he's at 6.6% this year. He has also cut his strikeouts significantly; it's almost like he feels since he is playing second base now he doesn't have to hit for power anymore or something.

This is purely subjective, but it seems like he has been trying to rope singles in the #5 slot-- not so much hit for power or take walks. The numbers seem to bear that out:
Batting #5: .519/.552/.593/1.144 (29 PAs)
Batting #2: .325/.384/.416/.799 (86 PAs)

In 8 games batting 3rd, he was pretty terrible (.222, no walks and only one double, 9 of his 18 strikeouts came hitting 3rd). It does seem like lineup spot has changed his approach, but of course SSS probably makes these numbers not very relevant...curious to know what others think.
   35. The Pequod Posted: May 15, 2012 at 12:54 PM (#4131895)
It was't just Game 6 in '99 - it was a lot of key games. 2000 WS, stretch drive vs. Atlanta in 2001 come to mind. There's more.


The Armando Benitez moment I'll never forget is Albert Belle's grand slam in Game 3 of the 1996 ALDS.
   36. Ravecc Posted: May 15, 2012 at 12:56 PM (#4131899)
but going into the season you have 5 starters (Dickey/Santana/Niese/Pelfrey/Gee)


That’s the thing – they weren’t sure they have 5.

General manager Sandy Alderson provided some more yesterday when he casually mentioned Johan Santana may not be ready for Opening Day.

“We do have some question marks, of course, with Santana being one of them,” Alderson said of the lefty pitcher’s return from his September 2010 shoulder surgery. “We think he’s going to be ready, but he might not be. That’s where the [pitching] depth becomes important.”


That was from Dec. 11. And then he proceeded to ignore everything he said and not do anything. He had Dickey, Niese, Pelf, Gee, MAYBE Santana and squat all. Hence the Schwinden/Batista Experience.
   37. formerly dp Posted: May 15, 2012 at 01:00 PM (#4131911)
That was from Dec. 11. And then he proceeded to ignore everything he said and not do anything. He had Dickey, Niese, Pelf, Gee, MAYBE Santana and squat all. Hence the Schwinden/Batista Experience.

Of all the free agent SP out there, who would you have spent money on that could reliably be expected to be better than Batista? And they have a lot of SP prospects coming up, so you don't want to commit to anyone who is going to block one of them. And probably no multiyear deals. What did Capuano end up getting from LA? Keeping him around wouldn't have been the worst idea.
   38. Conor Posted: May 15, 2012 at 01:06 PM (#4131919)
This is purely subjective, but it seems like he has been trying to rope singles in the #5 slot-- not so much hit for power or take walks. The numbers seem to bear that out:
Batting #5: .519/.552/.593/1.144 (29 PAs)
Batting #2: .325/.384/.416/.799 (86 PAs)

In 8 games batting 3rd, he was pretty terrible (.222, no walks and only one double, 9 of his 18 strikeouts came hitting 3rd). It does seem like lineup spot has changed his approach, but of course SSS probably makes these numbers not very relevant...curious to know what others think.


Obviously the sample size is small, but doesn't that seem odd anyway? (not saying you're wrong) You'd think a guy would try to hit for more power int he 5 spot, as that is considered more of a power position, then the 2 spot.

It's probably just a sample size thing, I'm sure, but he has seemed to be just spraying the ball more lately.

Over the last year plus (which is 144 games for Murph) he's hitting 323/365/436. Just looking at last year, second basemen hit 260/320/389. Murphy has a pretty high BABIP over the last 2 years (345 last year, 379 so far this year) so we probably need to take a little of the air out of his numbers, but he has a career 330 BBAIP in the majors; his ZIPS rest of the season projection is 297/344/422, which is still solidly above average for second. I admit I was a little skeptical of his transition to second, and while i don't think he is great by any means, he's not terribly below average to me (though definitely below average).

Capuano got like 2/10 or something.
   39. PreservedFish Posted: May 15, 2012 at 01:12 PM (#4131925)
This is purely subjective, but it seems like he has been trying to rope singles in the #5 slot-- not so much hit for power or take walks. The numbers seem to bear that out:


Eh, I don't think you need to parse the numbers into such tiny samples. Last year he turned into a banjo hitter, and he's doing the same thing this year. It's odd.
   40. PreservedFish Posted: May 15, 2012 at 01:25 PM (#4131929)
That was from Dec. 11. And then he proceeded to ignore everything he said and not do anything. He had Dickey, Niese, Pelf, Gee, MAYBE Santana and squat all.


Well, "squat all" was deemed sufficient at backup catcher, and at 5th outfielder, so they may have decided that squat all was good enough for starting pitching depth. Squat all seemed like the theme of the offseason. And again, they do have two very good prospects in the rotation at Syracuse. I agree that I want more options, but they were never going to give someone a guaranteed contract to be the 5th (if Santana had a setback) or 6th starter. I'm not a big Dillon Gee fan, but I would rather see him pitching than see him get bumped to the Batista role in deference to the millions owed to Jason Marquis.
   41. formerly dp Posted: May 15, 2012 at 01:29 PM (#4131934)
You'd think a guy would try to hit for more power int he 5 spot, as that is considered more of a power position, then the 2 spot.

I can see the logic-- if he's coming up with runners on, he wants to dunk balls in the OF to score the runners, especially with Ike hitting poorly behind him. The Met offense has been effective working counts and hitting a lot of singles and doubles. Murphy seems to epitomize that approach this year. They have also played a lot of close games, where sacrificing some power for a better chance at driving in a run seems like a rational calculation. It will be interesting to see what happens when Bay and Tejada get healthy, and/or Davis heats up.

I admit I was a little skeptical of his transition to second, and while i don't think he is great by any means, he's not terribly below average to me (though definitely below average).

Firmly in the skeptical camp. If he's healthy for 2/3 of the season, I will be very happy to have been wrong about the wisdom of the move.

Capuano got like 2/10 or something.

Urg, no thanks.
   42. Jolly Old St. Nick Done Jumped The Ship Posted: May 15, 2012 at 01:45 PM (#4131960)
The Armando Benitez moment I'll never forget is Albert Belle's grand slam in Game 3 of the 1996 ALDS.

Yeah, and what really steamed Benitez about that pitch was that the speed clock only registered 99. He probably wanted Johnson to continue the game under protest.
   43. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: May 15, 2012 at 02:26 PM (#4132017)
There was an article--I think it was in Sports Illustrated, although I may be remembering this wrong--about closers and it made Benitez look like an absolute nutcase. It implied, I believe, that he would beat up his girlfriend when he pitched badly and also had some voodoo elements in it. I have no idea if any of that was true, but it sure didn't make him seem like a stable guy.
   44. Jolly Old St. Nick Done Jumped The Ship Posted: May 15, 2012 at 03:05 PM (#4132058)
RB, that SI link in #18 may be the article you're thinking of. He comes off like Frank Costanza without the "Serenity Now" mantra to calm him down.
   45. base ball chick Posted: May 15, 2012 at 07:02 PM (#4132334)
what's the problem with hairston? it's not like he's being used instead of someone young and better or with a future

and i kind of remember benitez from the orioles days - sort of like 2005 brad lidge without the "killed by albert pujols" label. but i remember jeffrey bartman even better, mostly because it involved Da Jetah

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