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Friday, September 28, 2012

Megdal: Citi Field embraces Dickey and Wright, and doesn’t want to let go

Megdal’s latest on the Mets…

In what has been a difficult season for the New York Mets, the two constants have been R.A. Dickey and David Wright.

And yet, with both players entering the final year of their current contracts (assuming that the Mets will pick up both of their options for 2013), the two players entered Thursday’s home finale against the Pittsburgh Pirates with real questions about whether they’ll play for the home fans again.

Accordingly, the number of people in the stands actually resembled the official announced attendance (the number of tickets sold) of 31,506, while the atmosphere resembled a pre-Madoff one for the Mets and their fans.

Those fans were treated to the very best the 2012 Mets offered; R.A. Dickey won his 20th game of the season, and the Mets beat the Pirates, 6-5. In return, Dickey and Wright received at least a plausible counter to how Citi Field felt for most of the summer to take with them as they weigh their futures this winter.

...In a season when few came to Citi Field—the lowest attendance for the Mets since 2003—and fewer cared, almost no one left, even though the game was over. They know the drill by now; they were cheering their remaining heroes as much as they could in case they, too, disappeared.

Repoz Posted: September 28, 2012 at 01:00 PM | 35 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mets

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   1. RMc's desperate, often sordid world Posted: September 28, 2012 at 01:25 PM (#4248115)
Citi Field embraces Dickey

Not that there's anything wrong with that...
   2. JJ1986 Posted: September 28, 2012 at 01:29 PM (#4248117)
the two players entered Thursday’s home finale against the Pittsburgh Pirates with real questions about whether they’ll play for the home fans again.


What? If Wright or Dickey is gone by opening day it will be a huge surprise. They might not make it through the season, but they'll be back.
   3. Loren F. Posted: September 28, 2012 at 01:45 PM (#4248142)
What do people figure are the chances that Wright re-signs with the Mets after 2013? 50%? 25%? 0%? The financial uncertainty hurts the Mets, as does the fact that Wright assuredly remembers that time the team owner dissed him in The New Yorker.
   4. PreservedFish Posted: September 28, 2012 at 01:57 PM (#4248158)
I think it's at least 50%. The Mets, even the post-Madoff pauper house Mets, have a TON of money to spend starting in 2004. Losing Wright would be like sending a letter to the season ticket holders asking them not to renew.
   5. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 28, 2012 at 02:01 PM (#4248163)
I'd say 75%.
   6. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: September 28, 2012 at 02:04 PM (#4248165)
75% of Wright will stay with the Mets
(his left leg will be traded)
   7. Ray (RDP) Posted: September 28, 2012 at 02:12 PM (#4248177)
Dickey's my choice for NL Cy.

No, not Chapman or Kimbrel. When you're sitting on your hands during crucial late-game situations as your manager is waiting for a Save Situation, you are not that valuable.
   8. HowardMegdal Posted: September 28, 2012 at 05:39 PM (#4248373)
What? If Wright or Dickey is gone by opening day it will be a huge surprise. They might not make it through the season, but they'll be back.

Look, we don't know how the Mets will approach it. But consider it this way: if the Mets are unable to sign Wright and Dickey this offseason, and either believe the two are out of their price range next winter, or simply don't want to take the chance they leave for nothing like Reyes, it makes more sense to trade them this winter (a full season of value, coming off of fantastic 2012s) then in-season (less than full season, possible regression, possible injury).

So if the plan is to trade either, it should probably happen this winter.

Then again, if the plan is to sell every last ticket today, without worrying about tomorrow, then they'll stay. Same is true if the Mets find a way to extend them, which, remember, requires Dickey/Wright to buy in, and the Mets to come up with a large bucket of money.

How able and willing the Mets are to do that should be the determining factor in Sandy Alderson's process. Alas... there are other factors.
   9. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: September 28, 2012 at 06:02 PM (#4248401)
Then again, if the plan is to sell every last ticket today, without worrying about tomorrow, then they'll stay. Same is true if the Mets find a way to extend them, which, remember, requires Dickey/Wright to buy in, and the Mets to come up with a large bucket of money.

I think it's important to remember how much the payroll has shrunk in the last two years. The Mets are spending less than the Minnesota Twins this season. They don't have anyone under contract for the 2014 season other than Niese. At some point, the Mets are going to have money to spend even if they don't have a big-market team payroll. There may be baseball reasons not to sign Wright and Dickey but not having the payroll isn't one of them. How much more are the Mets going to shrink the payroll?
   10. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 28, 2012 at 06:20 PM (#4248417)
I think it's important to remember how much the payroll has shrunk in the last two years. The Mets are spending less than the Minnesota Twins this season. They don't have anyone under contract for the 2014 season other than Niese. At some point, the Mets are going to have money to spend even if they don't have a big-market team payroll. There may be baseball reasons not to sign Wright and Dickey but not having the payroll isn't one of them. How much more are the Mets going to shrink the payroll?

This. Both Wright and Dickey seem to honestly enjoy being Mets. The Mets can afford to pay them and still run a small market budget. Even if you give Wright $20M per and Dickey $12M, they still have a ton of payroll space.
   11. cardsfanboy Posted: September 28, 2012 at 06:34 PM (#4248429)
I don't see either going someplace else. Even if the Mets can't sign Wright during the off season, I don't see him being traded before the team is out of the playoff race. You keep him, hope that you make other good choices that the team is competitive come trade deadline time and have the positive effect on the player of being in a pennant race and hopefully some post season halo effect that helps you sign him afterwards.

   12. SM Posted: September 28, 2012 at 07:50 PM (#4248495)
Is 12 mil really going to get Dickey? I know he's old but he's fantastic. I mean AJ Burnett got 16.5 five years ago.
   13. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 28, 2012 at 09:14 PM (#4248559)
Is 12 mil really going to get Dickey? I know he's old but he's fantastic. I mean AJ Burnett got 16.5 five years ago.

He turns 38 in Oct. Is someone going more than 4/50?
   14. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: September 28, 2012 at 09:20 PM (#4248565)
Which means he'll be a 39 year-old free agent. Yeah, he's a knuckle-baller, and yeah, he's teh awesome, but is anyone going more than 2/$25?
   15. SM Posted: September 29, 2012 at 01:25 AM (#4248740)
Well I don't think he's getting tons of years, but yeah I think he'd get a lot more than 2/25. But then I guess it really depends on how he pitches next year. But if he were a FA now, coming off a Cy Young year? I'd say 2/40 or 3/57 is more likely than 2/25.
   16. flournoy Posted: September 29, 2012 at 05:55 AM (#4248758)
He turns 38 in Oct. Is someone going more than 4/50?


Which means he'll be a 39 year-old free agent.


Man, and I thought I was getting old too quickly.
   17. Lassus Posted: September 29, 2012 at 10:33 AM (#4248799)
I know I know I know, everyone says this about players they like; but if anyone anywhere decided to take a little less money to play in a place he enjoyed, I'd think that person would be Dickey.
   18. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 29, 2012 at 10:44 AM (#4248805)
I know I know I know, everyone says this about players they like; but if anyone anywhere decided to take a little less money to play in a place he enjoyed, I'd think that person would be Dickey.

There's no reason the Mets can't match the market price.
   19. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: September 29, 2012 at 11:10 AM (#4248815)
But if he were a FA now, coming off a Cy Young year?


Yeah, timing is everything. As it stands, Dickey will be pitching for a paltry $5M in 2013.
   20. Lassus Posted: September 29, 2012 at 11:13 AM (#4248816)
There's no reason the Mets can't match the market price.

Well, no, but if there's a reason they won't, all I mean is that if there's a reason they go $2M or $3M under the next -highest deal, my point was (possibly incorrectly) that it seems Dickey wouldn't have a problem with that. Unless you mean that "market price" is always the highest thing offered.
   21. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 29, 2012 at 11:49 AM (#4248831)

Well, no, but if there's a reason they won't, all I mean is that if there's a reason they go $2M or $3M under the next -highest deal, my point was (possibly incorrectly) that it seems Dickey wouldn't have a problem with that. Unless you mean that "market price" is always the highest thing offered.


By $2-3M, do you mean 3/42 vs. 3/45? Or do you mean 3/30 vs. 3/40?

I believe Dickey might stay for a few million less in total contract, but if some other team offers $2-3M more p.a., he's gone if the Mets don't match.
   22. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: September 29, 2012 at 12:21 PM (#4248841)
Man, and I thought I was getting old too quickly.

He's going to be 38 in Oct. 2012 and a free agent in 2013. There's nothing wrong with what was said.
   23. tshipman Posted: September 29, 2012 at 12:22 PM (#4248842)
Mets have an opportunity to keep him this offseason by extending him. No other team can give him a raise next year, Mets can. That would be the smart thing to do, if you think he's going to continue this run of success.

   24. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 29, 2012 at 12:28 PM (#4248844)
Mets have an opportunity to keep him this offseason by extending him. No other team can give him a raise next year, Mets can. That would be the smart thing to do, if you think he's going to continue this run of success.


What would you offer him? Would 4/45 get it done if The Mets rip up the 2013 option?

This is Dickey's one shot at a payday, so he could be risk averse and willing to sign, or, he could think "This is my only chance" and go for every last penny.
   25. PreservedFish Posted: September 29, 2012 at 12:30 PM (#4248846)
What would you offer him? Would 4/45 get it done if The Mets rip up the 2013 option?


I really don't think that he'll get a contract this large. As good as he is, and even as a knuckleball pitcher, he's old. I think it might be an extension that's something like 2 years, $30 million.

By the way, any historical comps for Dickey? Elite 37-39 year old pitchers on the FA market?
   26. tshipman Posted: September 29, 2012 at 12:36 PM (#4248849)
What would you offer him? Would 4/45 get it done if The Mets rip up the 2013 option?


Jeez. I'd at least try for 3/36 first. I think you shouldn't really value him as anything but a 2 win player for the second and third years of the deal.

Edit: I'm agreeing with PreservedFish above: 3 years total, 31 million in additional money.

This is Dickey's one shot at a payday, so he could be risk averse and willing to sign, or, he could think "This is my only chance" and go for every last penny.


Dickey's 38 and has made 8.6 million in his career from baseball with half of that coming this last year. I imagine he'd be willing to trade future earnings for cash up front. His negotiating position is actually worse than most young guys when they're considering those team-friendly deals.
   27. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: September 29, 2012 at 12:39 PM (#4248850)
By the way, any historical comps for Dickey? Elite 37-39 year old pitchers on the FA market?

Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens?
   28. PreservedFish Posted: September 29, 2012 at 12:46 PM (#4248853)
In the winter of 2002-3 Greg Maddux was about to turn 37, was still one of the best pitchers in baseball (ERA+ near 155 three years in a row). There were a few cracks in the armor - he was still ultra healthy but wasn't pitching as deep into games, and his strikeout numbers were down. It looks like* he signed a 2 year deal worth about $28 million.

On the other hand, same year, same age, Tom Glavine signed a 4 year deal worth something like $42 million. IIRC the Braves wouldn't go to a 3rd year, the Phillies (?) wouldn't go to a 4th.

*Going off B-R.com, too lazy to search for newspaper articles to confirm.
   29. PreservedFish Posted: September 29, 2012 at 12:54 PM (#4248855)
The year after he won the CYA, Clemens (39 years old) signed a 2 year, $20 million contract with the Yankees.
   30. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: September 29, 2012 at 12:56 PM (#4248856)
The year after he won the CYA, Clemens (39 years old) signed a 2 year, $20 million contract with the Yankees.

He also had something weird in his contract where he had like a 10 million dollar bonus for opting out of his previous contract. I remember that distinctly.
   31. PreservedFish Posted: September 29, 2012 at 01:06 PM (#4248863)
When the Yankees acquired Johnson (age 41) from the DBacks he had a year left on his contract at $16 million. They gave him an extension (so he would waive his no-trade rights) for 2 years at $32 million. (According to one article, this doesn't totally jibe with B-R's numbers).

Johnson previously (age 39) had signed a 2-year extension with the DBacks also worth about $32 million.

So, anyway, I stick with my claim that Dickey will not sign a contract that's longer than 2 years. And I feel pretty good about that 2 year, $30 million number. Good enough for Maddux, Clemens and Johnson, good enough for Dickey.
   32. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: September 29, 2012 at 02:03 PM (#4248899)
The Yankees did give Johnson a 2/$32M extension when they traded for him. Arizona gave him another extension when they got him back from the Yankees, and that contract involved some restructuring and deferral of the last year of the Yankee contract. That's why B-R's numbers don't seem to add up. It's all spelled out, sort of, here.
   33. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 29, 2012 at 02:29 PM (#4248910)

So, anyway, I stick with my claim that Dickey will not sign a contract that's longer than 2 years. And I feel pretty good about that 2 year, $30 million number. Good enough for Maddux, Clemens and Johnson, good enough for Dickey.


Really? You're not adjusting at all for the massive amount of money sloshing around the league?
   34. PreservedFish Posted: September 29, 2012 at 03:44 PM (#4248943)
I did think about that. But Dickey is also less famous and less well established than the guys I mentioned, so maybe those factors even out.
   35. Graham & the 15-win "ARod Vortex of suck" Posted: September 29, 2012 at 03:50 PM (#4248948)
#7/Ray

Chapman isn't even the most deserving pitcher on his own team. Johnny Cueto is right there alongside Dickey and Clayton Kershaw for me in terms of deserving candidates. Heck, I would rank Mat Latos ahead of Chapman as well. Cueto and Dicky have similar ERAs (2.83 & 2.69 respectively), RA9s (3.00 & 2.96 respectively), and innings pitched (210 & 227.2 respectively). The question to me is whether the park effects difference (GABP is a hitters' haven; Citi Field is still a pitchers' park per Baseball-Reference.com) makes up for the difference in innings. Of course, Kershaw is right there, too (2.58 ERA, 2.83 RA9, 219.2 IP, similar park adjustment to Dickey). Dickey has the best K/BB ratio, but Cueto has the freakishly low HR/9 (in GABP, no less).

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